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ß 2002 British HIV Association HIV Medicine (2002), 3, 247±253 ORIGINAL RESEARCH Ritonavir plus saquinavir versus single protease inhibitor therapy in protease inhibitor-naive HIV-infected patients: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study HC Bucher,1 M Bichsel,2 P TaffeÂ,3 H Furrer,4 A Telenti,5 B Hirschel,6 R Weber,7 E Bernasconi,8 P Vernazza,9 C Minder2 and M Battegay1 for the Swiss HIV Cohort Study 1 Basel Center for HIV Research, Internal Medicine Outpatient Clinic University Hospital Basel, 2Department for Social and Preventive Medicine University Berne, 3Swiss HIV Cohort Data Center, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, Lausanne, 4 Division of Infectious Diseases, Inselspital, Bern, 5Division of Infectious Diseases, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, Lausanne, 6Division of Infectious Diseases, University Hospital, Geneva, 7Division of Infectious Diseases and Hospital Epidemiology, University Hospital Zurich, 8Infectious Disease Unit, Ospedale Regionale, Lugano, and 9Infectious Disease Unit, Cantonal Hospital St. Gall, Switzerland Objectives To compare the response to ritonavir (RTV) plus saquinavir (SQV) with single protease inhibitor (PI) therapies among PI-naive HIV-1 infected individuals. Methods Response to treatment was analysed according to the intent-to-treat principle in a prospective observational cohort study of 177 patients who between May 1995 and March 2000 started a double PI therapy with RTV and SQV (nonboosting dosages) plus at least one nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) and 2214 patients with a single PI therapy plus two NRTIs. We used survival analysis and Cox's proportional hazard regression methods. The primary endpoint was the time to a plasma viral load of <400 copies/mL. Secondary endpoints were taken as a gain in the CD4 count of >100 cells/mL, and change of initial PI for any reason. Results Baseline characteristics in both treatment groups were balanced. Median follow-up in both groups was 10.4 months. Time to an HIV-1 viral load of <400 copies/mL and an increase in the CD4 count of >100 106 cells/L was shorter for RTV plus SQV compared with single PI regimens (log rank test for each endpoint P <0.05). The adjusted hazard ratios of RTV plus SQV compared with single PI regimens were 1.21 (95% con®dence interval 0.99±1.47) for achieving an HIV-1 viral load of <400 copies/mL, 1.12 (0.88±1.42) for an increase in the CD4 count of >100 cells/mL, and 0.90 (0.73±1.11) for change of ®rst PI regimen. Conclusions Treatment with RTV plus SQV compared with single PI regimens appeared to give similar results for virological or immunological response. Keywords: antiretroviral therapy, HIV infections, prospective cohort study, protease inhibitors Received: 28 February 2002, accepted 11 June 2002 [1±3]. Generally, a potent antiretroviral therapy consists of one protease inhibitor (PI) or nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI) combined with at least two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI). Pharmacokinetic studies have shown that ritonavir (RTV) may boost serum levels of other PIs such as saquinavir (SQV) and indinavir (IDV), and has lead to the introduction of dual PI therapies. Introduction The introduction of potent antiretroviral therapy has lead to a dramatic reduction in HIV-related morbidity and mortality Correspondence: Heiner C. Bucher, Basel Institute for Clinical Epidemiology, University Hospital Basel, CH-4031 Basel/Switzerland. e-mail: [email protected] 247 248 HC Bucher et al. Several studies have demonstrated that the combination of RTV plus SQV reduces plasma HIV-1 viral load to a similar extent to that of a single PI-based regimen [4±9]. These studies, however, either did not use control groups, reported only 24 weeks follow-up data, or compared different dosing or intensi®cation regimens of RTV plus SQV. There is very little evidence from controlled trials in PI-naive patients comparing the dual PI therapy of RTV plus SQV with single PI regimens. In one randomized controlled trial, the dual combination of RTV plus SQV showed superior short-term antiretroviral activity when compared with single protease regimen with either IDV or RTV [10]. However, the limited number of included patients and the short follow-up period limit the generalizability of these study ®ndings. The goal of the present study was to examine the effectiveness of a dual PI therapy based on RTV plus SQV with at least one additional reverse transcriptase inhibitor compared with a single PI regimen in combination with two reverse transcriptase inhibitors in a mixed population of PI-naive HIV-infected patients within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. Method Study design Patient selection We searched the database of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study for PI-naive patients who started a potent antiretroviral therapy with either a double protease regimen with RTV plus SQV hard or soft gel capsule in nonboosting regimens in conjunction with at least one reverse transcriptase inhibitor or a single PI therapy with two reverse transcriptase inhibitors between May 1995 and March 2000. We included all eligible patients that had had a viral load and CD4 cell measurement within 3 months prior to start of therapy and at least two surrogate marker follow-up measurements, irrespective of whether they were lost to follow-up, left the cohort for known reasons or died during follow-up. Pretreated patients were only included if they were PI naive and if at least one new reverse transcriptase inhibitor was introduced in conjunction with the PI. Study endpoints The primary study endpoint was taken as the probability and time taken to reaching an HIV-1 plasma viral load of <400 copies/mL. Plasma HIV-1 RNA concentration was determined by the Amplicor HIV-1 Monitor (Roche Diagnostics, Basel, Switzerland) with a limit of detection of 400 copies/mL. We did not use the ultrasensitive assay (detection limit <50 copies/mL) because the test was introduced only in 1999 and was not available in all patients. The secondary endpoint was the time taken for an increase in the CD4 count of > 100 cells/mL, and to ®rst change of a PI regimen. We classi®ed the progression to AIDS and death as secondary endpoint because we anticipated few events [1]. We used the European classi®cation of AIDS [11]. Statistics We analysed double and single PI regimens using the intention-to-treat approach (i.e. all patients were analysed according to their initial therapy irrespective of changes of treatment during follow-up). We used the log rank test to compare the time to undetectable viral load, to an increase in the CD4 count of >100 cells/mL, to switching of the initial PI. To check for differences between the two treatment groups concerning baseline characteristics we used w2-tests for categorical variables (i.e. gender, mode of HIV acquisition) and t-tests or rank sum tests for continuous variables [i.e. CD4 cell count, HIV-1 RNA level, age, time between entering the cohort and beginning highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), date of beginning HAART]. We used proportional Cox regression analysis to adjust for the difference in baseline characteristics in multivariable analysis for primary and secondary endpoints. Baseline covariables included in multivariate models were CD4 cell count (in units of 100 cells/mL), HIV-1 RNA level (log10 transformed), age (in units of 10 years), gender, mode of HIV acquisition (intravenous drug use or no intravenous drug use), and whether patients had been pretreated with any reverse transcriptase inhibitors. Antiretroviral drugs compared in the single and double, respectively, PI therapies in this study were introduced in sequence as drugs became available over time. This may introduce a bias and the bene®cial effect of a given drug may be overestimated because patients who survive longer are more likely to get treated, irrespective of whether a given treatment is effective or not. To correct for such bias, we strati®ed the Cox regression by year of start of PI therapy [12]. We excluded preexisting AIDS from the ®nal models because its modifying effect was depicted by the CD4 cell count. We performed log rank tests and proportional hazards analyses, as the main study interest was on average effect differences over a longer time span. We checked the proportional hazard assumption by splitting the observation period into two time periods with an approximately equal number of events for the primary and secondary endpoints, comparing the hazard ratios in both periods, and by using Schoenfeld residuals. All probability values stated are two-sided. All analysis was carried out using Stata 6.0 (Stata Corp., College Station, TX, USA). ß 2002 British HIV Association HIV Medicine (2002) 3, 247±253 Double vs. single protease inhibitor in HIV infection 249 Results Patients' characteristics From May 1995 to March 2000, 3493 individuals had been included into the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. Of these individuals, 2870 (82.2%) had initiated either a single or double PI therapy. We excluded individuals with less than two followup examinations after initiation of a PI-based regimen, individuals that received a single PI regimen with SQV hard gel capsule (due to its limited ef®cacy) or a different double PI regimen other than RTV plus SQV (n 40), and patients initiating a potent antiretroviral therapy based on nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, thus leaving 2391 individuals (83.3%) for analysis. In total, 177 (7.4%) patients had been treated with a combination of RTV plus SQV and 2214 with a single PI regimen, and were included into the present analysis. Baseline characteristics in both groups were comparable, though patients with RTV plus SQV double PI compared with patients with single PI regimens had fewer CD4 cells (median 186 vs. 210 cells/mL, P 0.47), had a slightly higher viral load (median 4.6 vs. 4.5 log HIV-1 plasma viral load, P 0.07), and included fewer intravenous drug users (25.2% vs. 31.5%, P 0.12) (Table 1). The median age in both groups was 35.5 years and roughly one-quarter of patients were females. The number of patients who had suffered AIDS before starting a PI and had had prior treatment with reverse transcriptase inhibitors was distributed equally in both groups. Patients treated with RTV plus SQV tended to start this regimen at a later date compared with single PI regimens, but the time period from inclusion into the cohort to start of therapy was comparable between groups. Stavudine (d4T) was the most commonly used reverse transcriptase inhibitor in the double PI group (82.0%). IDV (41.2%) and nel®navir (32.1%) were the most used PIs in the single PI group. Dosages of double PI regimen were RTV 400±600 mg twice daily and SQV 400±600 mg twice daily. (Exact details of drug dosing are only available in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study database since 1999.) Median follow-up was 10.4 months in both groups (Table 2). Primary endpoint and virological response The Kaplan±Meier analysis showed that time to a viral load of <400 copies/mL was shorter with RTV plus SQV compared with single PI regimens (P < 0.01) (Fig. 1). The median time to a viral load of <400 copies/mL was 93 days for RTV plus SQV and 111 days for single PI regimens, respectively. However, at last follow-up the proportion of patients with a viral load of < 400 copies/mL was similar in both groups, i.e. 63.3% in the RTV plus SQV and 61.4% in the single PI group ß 2002 British HIV Association HIV Medicine (2002) 3, 247±253 (Table 2). In the adjusted analysis, the hazard ratio for reaching HIV-1 RNA levels of < 400 copies/mL with double RTV plus SQV compared with single PI regimens was 1.21 (95% con®dence interval (CI) 0.99±1.47; P 0.06) (Table 3). Secondary endpoints Time to an increase in CD4 count of >100 cells/mL was statistically signi®cantly shorter for the combination of RTV plus SQV when compared with single PI regimens (log rank test P < 0.05) (Fig. 1). Median days to a >100 CD4 cell increase was 163 days for RTV plus SQV and 212 days for single PI regimens, respectively. The hazard ratio for an increase in CD4 count of >100 cells/mL of RTV plus SQV compared with single PI regimens was 1.12 (0.88±1.42). A similar proportion of patients in both groups, 67.8% of patients with the RTV plus SQV combination and 73.3% of patients with a single PI therapy, changed their initial PI regimen during follow-up (Table 2). Time to ®rst change and the hazard for change of double PI-compared with single PIbased regimens was not statistically signi®cantly different. Fifteen (8.5%) patients in the RTV plus SQV group and 125 (5.6%) patients in the single PI group suffered from AIDS or died. Analyses for the separate endpoints of AIDS and death remained inconclusive due to the limited number of events and, therefore, no further analyses were done. Discussion We investigated the most used double PI regimen within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. In PI naive individuals, double PI therapy with RTV plus SQV compared with single PI regimens led to a more rapid decline of HIV-1 RNA levels to < 400 copies/mL. In multivariable analysis, the hazard ratios for HIV-1 RNA levels <400 copies/mL were in favour of the double PI regimen but failed conventional levels of statistical signi®cance (P 0.06). This difference was not sustained beyond 24 months during extended observation periods, but these estimates are based on very few observations. At last follow-up, a similar proportion of patients in both groups (63.3% and 61.4%) had a viral load of <400 copies/mL. Observational studies such as the Swiss HIV Cohort Study can provide important insights into the effectiveness of different antiretroviral drug combinations since they include a large spectrum of patients with a higher proportion of intravenous drug users and females, two groups of individuals that are more likely to be underrepresented in randomized clinical trials. Results from observational studies of therapeutic interventions, however, may be prone to bias due to residual confounding and survival treatment bias [12,13]. In addition, empirical evidence shows that, in 250 HC Bucher et al. Table 1 Baseline characteristics Patients (n) Median age [years (range)] Single protease inhibitor Dual protease inhibitor: RTV/SQV 2214 177 36 (17±82) P-value* 35 (20±70) 0.51 Female [n (%)] 634 (28.6) 53 (29.9) 0.71 Transmission group [n (%)] Heterosexual Homosexual Intravenous drug user Other 649 (29.7) 790 (36.2) 689 (31.6) 54 (2.5) 66 (37.9) 59 (33.9) 44 (25.3) 5 (2.9) Previous AIDS [n (%)] 549 (24.8) Median CD4 cell count [cells/mL (range)] Below 50 50±99 100±199 200±349 $ 350 210 (0±1529) 349 (16.5) 239 (11.3) 421 (19.8) 559 (26.3) 554 (26.1) Log10 HIV-1 RNA (copies/mL) [median (range)] < 400 4000±9999 10 000±54 999 55 000±99 999 $ 100 000 4.5 (0.7±6.8) 91 (4.7) 515 (26.7) 559 (29.0) 222 (11.50) 543 (28.1) Pretreatment with reverse transcriptase inhibitors [n (%)] Median time from inclusion to cohort and start of protease inhibitor [months (range)] Date for start of protease inhibitor [median (range)] Protease inhibitor at baseline [n (%)] Indinavir Nel®navir Other protease inhibitor RTV SQV hard gel capsule RTV SQV soft gel capsule Reverse transcriptase inhibitor at baseline [n (%)] Zidovudine/3TC d4t/3TC Didanosine/d4T d4t Other 41 (23.2) 186 (3±1439) 28 (16.4) 15 (8.8) 46 (26.9) 46 (20.9) 36 (21.1) 4.6 (2.3±6.9) 3 (1.8) 44 (26.4) 46 (27.5) 19 (11.4) 55 (33.0) 1314 (59.3) 101 (57.0) 27.1 (0±140.6) 26.2 (0±145.1) 05/1997 (04/1996±04/1999) 912 (41.2) 710 (32.1) 592 (26.7) 1057 (47.7) 730 (33.0) 300 (13.6) ± 127 (5.7) 0.12 0.62 0.47 0.17 0.07 0.48 0.55 0.64 03/1998 (04/1996±04/1999) 174 3 7 (4.0) 10 (5.6) 6 (3.4) 145 (82.0) 9 (5.1) *Difference between single protease inhibitor and dual protease inhibitor (RTV/SQV) by w2 and Wilcoxon signed rank tests. RTV, ritonavir; SQV, saquinavir; d4T, stavudine; 3TC, lamivudine. general, results from observational studies tend to yield higher effect sizes when compared with results from randomized controlled trials, though prospective cohort studies seem to be less prone to this bias [14]. We cannot exclude that our study results are distorted by residual confounding and our ®ndings should therefore be interpreted cautiously. There exists only one randomized controlled trial of a head-to-head comparison of RTV plus SQV with a single PI, IDV [10], where it was found that at 24 weeks, a higher proportion of patients (82.0%) in the RTV plus SQV group compared with 71% in the IDV group achieved a viral load of <200 copies/mL. Our analysis is in agreement with the ®ndings from this controlled trial, however, our ®gures are considerably lower. In addition, because our analysis is based on a less rigid cut-off point, we do not know whether patients with the double PI regimen would have achieved more favourable results in the ultrasensitive assay. In the trial by Kirk et al. [10], patients with double PI therapy were also more likely to reach a viral load of <20 copies/mL compared with the single PIs. In the `Prometheus study', a randomized trial comparing the intensi®cation of the double PI therapy of RTV plus SQV with d4T 69% of the ß 2002 British HIV Association HIV Medicine (2002) 3, 247±253 Double vs. single protease inhibitor in HIV infection 251 Table 2 Clinical course and changes of treatment during follow-up Median months of follow-up Viral load < 400 copies/mL at last follow-up [n (%)] Viral rebound (> 400 copies/mL) at last follow-up in patients with a previous viral load of < 400 copies/mL [n (%)] CD4 cell increase of >100 cells/mL ever achieved during follow-up [n (%)] Switch of initial protease inhibitor [n (%)] AIDS or death [n (%)] Single protease inhibitor (n 5 177) Dual protease inhibitor: RTV/SQV (n 5 2214) P-value* 10.4 1360 (61.4) 10.4 112 (63.3) 0.90 0.63 632 (31.7) 48 (30) 0.65 1790 (80.8) 149 (84.2) 0.27 1622 (73.3) 125 (5.6) 120 (67.8) 15 (8.5) 0.16 0.13 *Difference between single protease inhibitor and dual protease inhibitor (RTV/SQV) by w2 and Wilcoxon signed rank tests. RTV, ritonavir; SQV, saquinavir. Table 3 Relative hazards for reaching a viral load of < 400 copies/mL (primary endpoint), a CD4 cell count increase of >100 cells/mL, and for the ®rst change of protease inhibitor therapy (secondary endpoint) Protease Saquinavir/ritonavir vs. single protease inhibitor Baseline CD4 cell count per 100 mL increase Baseline viral load per 1 log10 copies/mL increase Previous use of reverse transcriptase inhibitor History of injecting drug use Female vs. male Age per 10-year increase Primary endpoint* Secondary endpoint* Relative hazard of HIV-1 RNA < 400 copies/mL (95% CI) Relative hazard of CD4 cell increase by > 100 cells/mL (95% CI) Relative hazard of ®rst change of inhibitor (95%) 1.21 (0.99±1.47) 1.01 (0.98±1.04) 0.71 (0.65±0.78) 0.62 (0.55±0.71) 0.95 (0.84±1.07) 0.99 (0.84±1.07) 1.04 (0.97±1.10) 1.12 (0.88±1.42) 1.07 (1.03±1.10) 1.27 (1.17±1.38) 0.86 (0.73±0.99) 0.62 (0.53±0.73) 0.82 (0.71±0.96) 0.88 (0.82±0.95) 0.90 (0.73±1.11) 0.99 (0.96±1.02) 1.09 (1.02±1.16) 1.37 (1.21±1.56) 1.10 (0.98±1.24) 0.86 (0.77±0.97) 0.98 (0.92±1.05) *Adjusted for all variables listed in the table and stratified by year of start of potent antiretroviral therapy with protease inhibitor. CI, confidence interval. patients reached a viral load of <400 copies/mL at week 48 [8]. In a randomized controlled trial, Cameron et al. [15] tested different doses of RTV and SQV and found that over 80% of individuals who completed the trial reached a viral load of <400 copies/mL at 48 weeks. Figures from both trials are higher than in our analysis. One reason for these discrepant ®ndings could be that over 50% of the patients included in the present analysis were not antiretroviral drug naive when starting a potent therapy with PIs. This could explain the relatively low ®gures of patients in our study that achieved a viral load of <400 copies/mL in comparison with other studies where identical dual PI combinations and dosage regimens were used. The faster decline of HIV1 RNA with RTV plus SQV could indicate a superior antiretroviral effect compared with single PI therapies. However, given the observational nature of our study, we stress the need for further data from additional studies to con®rm these ®ndings. Such studies could particularly evaluate the ß 2002 British HIV Association HIV Medicine (2002) 3, 247±253 attractiveness of RTV plus SQV for induction therapies followed by simpli®ed maintenance regiments in selected patients with high baseline viral loads. Comparison of our study results with other observational studies is somewhat limited because most of these studies included either very small control groups [16,17] or no controls at all [4±6]. However, compared with our analysis, the majority of these studies also reported higher proportion of patients with double PI therapy of RTV plus SQV that achieved and maintained an HIV-1 plasma viral load of < 400 copies/mL. Our data indicated a higher probability for a gain in the CD4 count of >100 cells/mL in patients with RTV plus SQV in the survival analysis. Multivariate analysis showed a trend favouring the double over single PI regimens, though the hazard ratio failed conventional levels for statistical signi®cance. Because we could not ®nd a violation of the proportional hazard assumption in our analysis, we consider Proportion with CD4 cell increase > 100 per µL 252 HC Bucher et al. CD4 cell increase >100 per 106/L P < 0.05 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Ritonavir/saquinavir 0.5 0.4 0.3 Single protease inhibitor 0.2 0.1 0 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 Proportion with HIV-1 RNA < 400 copies/mL Time since start of potent antiretroviral therapy (months) P < 0.04 HIV-1 RNA < 400 copies per mL 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 Ritonavir/saquinavir 0.6 0.5 Single protease inhibitor 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 Proportion of change of first protease inhibitor Time since start of potent antiretroviral therapy (months) Change of first protease inhibitor for any reason P = 0.15 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Single protease inhibitor 0.5 0.4 Ritonavir/ saquinavir 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 Time since start of potent antiretroviral therapy (months) Fig. 1 Cumulative probability of reaching the primary endpoint of an HIV-1 viral load of <400 copies/mL and secondary endpoints of CD4 cell count increase of >100 cells/mL, and switch of initial protease inhibitor for any reason (intention-to-treat analysis). the lack of power the most likely explanation for this non signi®cant ®nding. Two smaller, single-centre cohort studies from the UK and the USA found both a similar increase of CD4 cells with single PI- and RTV plus SQV-treated patients [16,17]. Time-to-switch from the initial PI regimen due to any reason was similar in both groups. More than two-thirds of patients in both groups switched their initial PI during follow-up. This endpoint de®nition re¯ects the clinical question `which treatment strategy keeps patients virologically suppressed?' All outcomes other than successful virological suppression with the assigned treatment program are considered as failure [18]. We had to chose this endpoint because we lacked detailed information about the reasons for drug switches since this variable was only introduced into the Swiss HIV Cohort Study in 1999. This is certainly a limitation of our study. We suspect, however, that drug intolerance of the combination therapy of RTV plus SQV and incommodity of the IDV dosing regimen, the most frequently used single PI, were the most likely reasons for the high switch rates in both groups [19]. Evidence from a cross-sectional survey within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study supports this hypothesis. Double PI regimens compared with single PI regimens were twice as likely to be associated with adverse events [20]. To our knowledge this is the largest existing observational study for the comparison of RTV plus SQV vs. single PI regimens. We believe it is unlikely that future randomized controlled trials will be conducted that compare dual PI therapy of RTV plus SQV with other PI regimens in PI naive patients. For this reason, con®rmation of this study's ®ndings from other prospective cohort studies with longer follow-up times and more detailed information on adverse effects of RTV plus SQV and exact reasons for drug discontinuation is desirable. In conclusion, current evidence from this cohort study suggests that in PI-naive HIV-1-infected patients, the PI combination of RTV plus SQV plus one reverse transcriptase inhibitor is as effective as single PI regimens in combination with two reverse transcriptase inhibitors. These ®ndings apply only for surrogate marker endpoints and no ®rm conclusions can be drawn for clinical endpoints. Clinicians who intend to use a dual regimen of RTV plus SQV should, however, anticipate that it is highly likely that a large proportion of patients will switch from this combination therapy if treated for a suf®ciently long time span. Acknowledgements This study was ®nanced in the framework of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant no. 3345±062041). The members of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study are: M. Battegay (Chairman of the Scienti®c Board), E. Bernasconi, H. Bucher, Ph. BuÈrgisser, M. Egger, P. Erb, W. Fierz, M. 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