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1
Presentation Scope:
 Main focus is poverty updates based on
EICV4 (2013/14)
&
 Economic, social and demographic context
based on numerous recent studies:
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The establishment census 2014
Demographic and health survey 2014/15
Seasonal Agriculture Survey 2014
National accounts analysis 2001 - 2014
…..
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3
GDP per capita and total output by sector
6,000
800
8% Average GDP growth
689
5,000
718
701
700
627
600
547
4,000
506
2,536
500
2,277
409
2,078
3,000
342
1,790
295
2,000
211
206
221
1,604
245
638
0
327
88
277
362
2001
2002
93
282
Services
107
512
140
170
200
554
372
614
428
331
198
256
553
675
858
465
725
380
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
300
724
1,265
960
434
774
1,435
742
1,000
400
GDP per capita in US$
Output by sector in billion Frw
572
1,022
1,082
2009
2010
1,244
1,483
1,624
2012
2013
1,785
100
0
Industry
Agriculture
2011
2014
GDP per capita
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Average Annual Growth (food crop & population)
5.8%
5.7%
4.8%
2.6%
2.5%
2.5%
2002-2006
(EICV1-2)
2007-2011
(EICV2-3)
2012-2014
(EICV3-4)
Food crops
Population
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Enterprise/Business Development
Increase in establishments: 2011-2014
Increase in establishments
148,376
38.1%
119,270
91,581
24.4%
66,314
52,938
56,795
7.3%
Urban
Rural
2011
Total
Urban
Rural
Total
2014
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New Establishments by Size
92% of the increase in
micro establishments
are in selling agroproducts
92.2%
7.2%
Micro(1-3) Small (4-30)
0.3%
0.4%
Medium
(31-100)
Large (100+)
Establishments selling
agro-products almost
doubled from 25,613
in 2011 to 50,480 in
2014
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New establishment Jobs
Increase in employment
Increase in employment: 2011-2014
355,883
47.9%
264,648
34.5%
185,636
170,247
139,110
Urban
22.4%
125,538
Rural
Total
Urban
2011
Rural
Total
2014
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New Jobs by Establishment Size
50%
27%
16%
7%
Micro(1-3)
Small(4-30)
Medium(31-100)
Large(100+)
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Total non-farm jobs (000s)
3,309
Target 200,000 per year
146,000 jobs created per year
2,872
2011
2014
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Unemployment Rate: 2014
13.5%
8.7%
9.0%
Urban
Secondary
2.0%
Rwanda
University
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Demography
Fertility trends
Dependency Ratio
6.3
87.0
6.1
85.7
4.8
4.9
4.6
4.3
82.7
4.2
3.6
3.4
2005
2010
Rwanda
Urban
2014/15
2005/6
2010/11
2013/14
Rural
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Education
Net Attendance Primary
86.6 89.6 87.9
73.7
79.9
84.3 82.2
Net Attendance Secondary
91.2 93.5 92.5
39.8
34.8
23.0
21.3
17.8
10.4
10.1
6.9
6.7
2.2
Rwanda
2000/1
Q1
2005/6
Q5
2010/11
Rwanda
Q1
2013/14
2000/1
Net Attendance Tertiary
Q5
2005/6
Literacy
86.1
3.0
83.1
77.8
76.9
74.9
1.7
66.3
2011
2014
Rwanda
Q1
2005/6
Q1 (Quintile 1) refers to the bottom 20% of the population, respectively
the quintiles increase to Q5 which is the wealthiest 20% of the population
2010/11
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Nutrition (Children under 5yrs)
Stunting
Wasting
54.0
3.5
48.6
44.2
2.8
2.3
37.9
Rwanda
2010
2.2
2014/15
Q1
Rwanda
2010
2014/15
Q1
All measures of nutrition are improving among children less than 5 years. Even for the bottom 20%.
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Infant and Under Five Mortality:
Number of deaths per 1000 live births
196
152
107
103
86
76
62
50
50
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IMR
RDHS 2000
RDHS 2005
U5MR
RDHS 2007/8
RDHS 2010
RDHS 2014/15
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Maternal mortality:
Maternal deaths per 100,000 live births
1,071
750
476
210
RDHS 2000
RDHS 2005
RDHS 2010
RDHS 2014/15
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Housing
% Grass thatched roofs
11%
Household Access to electricity
9.8%
19.8
10.8
0.2
0.4%
2000/1
2005/6
2010/11
5
4.3
2.2%
2005/6
2013/14
0.8
2010/11
Rwanda
Households with metal sheet roof
Rwanda
2013/14
Q2
Metal sheet roof (Q1)
61.1
47.5
54.4
39.7
44.7
2000/1
43.7
2005/6
2010/11
2013/14
2010/11 2013/14
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% of households with:
Improved water source and improved sanitation
Improved water source
Improved sanitation
83.4
84.8
74.5
74.2
70.3
2006
58.5
2011
2014
2006
2011
2014
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Household Assets
% Owning Mobile Phones
% Owning Computers and TV
63.6
9.9
45.2
6.4
36.4
17.6
2.5
2.4
1.7
6.2
0.3
0.1
Rwanda
2005/6
Q1
2010/11
2013/14
Computer
TV
EICV2
EICV3
EICV4
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Where are we seeing improvements?
• The whole country
• Both rural and urban
– In some cases rural improvements are faster
• All businesses (large to small)
– Small business increasing faster and offering more jobs
• Bottom quintiles are also improving in some cases
faster than the average
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Poverty and Extreme Poverty Trends
58.9%
56.7%
44.9%
5.8%
40.0%
39.1%
35.8%
24.1%
7.8%
16.3%
2000/01
2005/06
Poverty
2010/11
Extreme poverty
2013/14
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SN
District
1 Kicukiro
2 Nyarugenge
3 Gasabo
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Rwamagana
Kamonyi
Kayonza
Muhanga
Huye
Bugesera
Musanze
Rusizi
Rubavu
Ruhango
Nyanza
Nyabihu
Extreme
Poverty
poverty
16.3
19.9
23.4
25.4
25.9
26.4
30.5
32.5
34.3
34.9
35.1
35.5
37.8
38.0
39.6
6.5
8.4
11.3
SN
16
17
18
8.0
6.0
9.5
7.8
5.7
13.4
16.8
15.8
14.2
12.8
17.6
12.6
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20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
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District
Nyamagabe
Kirehe
Gakenke
Extreme
poverty
Poverty
Gatsibo
Nyagatare
Karongi
Ngoma
Nyaruguru
Rulindo
Ngororero
Burera
Rutsiro
Gisagara
Gicumbi
Nyamasheke
41.5
41.8
42.0
13.0
17.8
16.2
43.8
44.1
45.3
46.8
47.9
48.1
49.6
50.4
51.4
53.3
55.3
62.0
18.5
19.5
21.3
19.5
20.0
20.2
23.5
23.0
23.6
20.6
24.7
39.2
Poverty & Extreme Poverty by District
62
52
42
32
22
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Extreme Poverty
Poverty
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Inequality
Gini coefficient trends
Ratio of 90th to 10th
percentile
0.522
7.07
0.507
7.10
0.49
6.36
0.448
2000/01
2005/06
2010/11
2013/14
6.01
2000/01 2005/06 2010/11 2013/14
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Conclusion
• The economy is growing fast
• Agriculture, food crop is growing faster than the
population
• Demographic pressures are reducing
• Nutrition, living conditions and health improving
• Increasing participation
– Increasing rural participation
 Agriculture and business
– Small businesses increasing faster
– Lower quintile households benefiting
• Sustained progress since 2001 and also since 2011
Poverty and Inequality reducing
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Policy perspective
•
•
•
•
The economy still needs to grow fast
Agriculture is still very important
Demographic pressures still exist
Increasing need for business development
support:
 A lot of micro and small businesses are being
established and more will come up; they will
need organizational and other support
• Need to diversify non-farm activities
 They are concentrated in retail and whole sale
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Thank You
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