Download Environment and Consultation in the Brazilian Democratic

New Challenges for the
Brazilian
Developmental State
Kathryn Hochstetler
Department of International Development, LSE
Classic Developmental State
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State-led development
Planning by autonomous elite bureaucrats in state
Long-term national interests
Authoritarian or closed economic decision-making
Classic Developmental State

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State-led development
Planning by autonomous elite bureaucrats in state
Long-term national interests
Authoritarian or closed economic decision-making
Democratic Developmental State
(Comparative Politics July 2016)
 New strategies for developmental success: build
capabilities, innovation, sustainably (vs. industrialization)
 Expect systematic environmental impact assessment
 Expect consultation of affected communities
 Every infrastructure project goes somewhere specific
Crafting coalitions to influence
siting of projects
 Interests (concentrated in place)
national benefits and local costs
 Mobilization of communities
1) objective; 2) political opportunity;
3) community characteristics
 Institutions
Environmental Impact Assessment
Democratic Developmental State 1:
Return to long-term energy planning
 Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE): 10 and 30
year planning since 2004
 Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento (PAC and
PAC 2) since 2007
 Petrobras pre-salt oil development since 2007
 Copenhagen Accord: reduce 2020 emissions by 36.1-
38.9% below BAU since 2009
Democratic Developmental State 2: The
National Development Bank BNDES
expands financing for development
Democratic Developmental State 3:
Environmental licensing as the
institution to mediate
 Environmental licensing since 1986 (US 1969)
 Requires consideration of both environmental and
socioeconomic impacts, including through
consultation with affected communities
 Avoid, reduce, mitigate, or compensate harms
BNDES-financed electricity
projects, 2002-2012
Type of fuel
Nuclear power plant
Large hydroelectric power plant (30 MW and
over)
Small hydroelectric power plant (under 30
MW)
Wind power plant
Thermal electric plant (oil, diesel, gas)
Total projects for grid
Number
of plants
1
41
MW
installed
1,405
29,208
109
2,260
138
13
302
3,569
5,864
42,306
Identifying “challenges”
 Folha de São Paulo
 Globo
 State newspaper
 Activist websites
 Environmental licensing and Ministério Público
(Public Prosecutor) websites
 With J. Ricardo Tranjan
BNDES electricity projects with
contention from civil society
or state agencies (w/ J.R. Tranjan)
Type of project
Nuclear power plant
Large hydroelectric
power generation (>30)
Number of
projects
1
Number with civil
society
mobilizations
1 (100 %)
Number with
challenges in EIA or
court (MP)
0 (0.0 %)
41
17 (41.5)
23 (56.1)
Small hydroelectric
power generation
109
22 (20.2)
22 (20.2)
Wind power plants
138
21 (15.2)
11 (8.0)
13
1 (7.7)
Thermoelectric plant (oil,
diesel, gas)
3 (23.1)
Accounting for challenges from
communities or state actors
1)
Objective risk/hazard: type of electricity, MW
installed, multiple plants
2)
Political opportunity: PT mayor, challenge by the
other actor (state for community, community for
state), civil society allies
3)
Community context: municipal GDP/capita, NGOs
per 1000 people, HDI
Overall patterns in Brazil
 Resistance to large projects (but not multiple
small)
 Green vs. green: fossil fuel plants are the
easiest to site
 Ability of project opponents to build political
coalitions explains when they mobilize
 Community characteristics do not explain
outcomes
Evolving patterns
 Biggest projects could only be built by the big
construction companies at the heart of Lava
Jato scandal
 BNDES role dramatically scaled back,
although continuing support for wind and
solar – but not coal
 With 9% shrinking of the economy in 2015-
2016, little new electricity needed
Questions?
[email protected]
Correlates of challenges
Local Communities
State actors (EIA, MP)
MW installed (log)
1.8062** (.71)
MW installed (log)
2.4917** (.97)
Multiple plants
.0409 (.4956)
Multiple plants
-.6890 (.47)
Small hydro
3.0516* (1.50)
Small hydro
.5766 (1.00)
Wind
2.7874* (1.40)
Wind
-.0102 (.81)
Small hydro
.0991 (1.50)
Fossil fuel
-3.4815** (1.1)
PT mayor
1.4819* (.62)
PT mayor
-3.0429** (1.08)
State challenge
1.6895** (.66)
Comm. challenge
1.6946** (.60)
Civil society allies
1.1501 (.93)
Civil society allies
NGOs/1000
.0634 (.04)
NGOs/1000
-.2591 (.13)
GDP/capita
.00002 (.00002)
GDP/capita
.000002 (.00001)
HDI
-8.4720** (3.3)
HDI
3.4374 (3.47)