Download determining levels of development

Comparative Development & Demographic Transition
Materials

Development Indicators

Comparative Development Statistics

Demographic Transition Model

Explanation of the Demographic Transition Model

How to Interpret Population Pyramids

Population Pyramid Summary for Brazil
Procedure
Preparation
1. Become familiar with the development indicators and what they tell us about a country’s level of
development.
2. Make overheads of the following:
a. Development Indicators
b. Comparative Development Statistics
c. Demographic Transition Model
d. Explanation of the Demographic Transition Model
e. How to Interpret Population Pyramids
f. Population Pyramid Summary for Brazil
3. Make a class set of copies of Comparative Development Statistics
Execution
Part One: Comparative Development
1. Project the overhead, “Development Indicators”. Briefly go through each indicator, explaining to students how
the statistic is measured.
2. Project the overhead, “Comparative Development Statistics”
a. First, cover the statistics, leaving only the country names. Ask students how they would rank the
countries in terms of developed, developing, and underdeveloped based on the general knowledge they
have of each country.
b. Ask students to explain/defend their reasoning. Answers may include: technological advancement,
natural resources, GDP, stability of government, etc.
c. Uncover the statistics. In pairs, ask students to examine the statistics and make inferences about each
country’s level of development.
d. Have the groups re-rank the countries in terms of levels of development; again, defending their
reasoning.
e. What exactly do the specific statistics TELL us about the country? For example:
i. Infant Mortality, Life Expectancy – shed light on medical advancement/technology.
ii. Total Fertility Rate – sheds light on access to birth control methods, education of women.
iii. GDP composition by sector – shows us the evolution of the country from an agricultural to
service.
f. How does Brazil measure up against the selected countries? Would you consider Brazil to be
developed, developing, or underdeveloped? Why?
Part Two: Demographic Transition
3. Discuss the concept of Demographic Transition. Use the two overheads Demographic Transition Model and
Explanation of the Demographic Transition Model
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Portrait of Brazil
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4. Project the overhead, How to Interpret Population Pyramids. Discuss with students the various types of population
pyramids and what they tell us about a country’s growth, development, and demographic transition.
a. As the pyramid changes, what does this tell us about how the development indicators are changing?
b. How can population pyramids shed light on a country’s stage of demographic transition?
5. Project Brazil’s Population Pyramid Summary. Show each stage one at a time.
A. Describe the growth pattern of the Brazilian population.
B. Discuss what factors may have contributed to this change
C. In each stage, where do you think Brazil is in the demographic transition?
D. Examine change over time.
Conclusion
6. Review Brazil’s Development Statistics for 2004 found on the overhead Comparative Development Statistics.
7. As Brazil moves through the Demographic Transition, how will these statistics change over time?
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Development Indicators
We used to label countries as 1st, 2nd, and 3rd world. This originated after WWII.

The 1st world was the U.S. and its allies.

The 2nd world was the USSR and its allies.

The 3rd world was the remaining countries, which were unaligned and had less political and military
power.
This terminology is now considered politically incorrect, so we say “developed”, “developing” and
“underdeveloped”.
KEY TERMS:
Subsistence Farming: people grow only enough for their own family’s or village’s needs. They grow food to
eat, not sell. Characteristic of developing or underdeveloped nations.
Commercial Farming: farmers raise crops and livestock to sell in the market. Modern techniques and
equipment make these farmers more productive, so there are fewer farmers as a percentage of the work force.
Characteristic of developed nations.
Developed Countries: modern industrial societies with well-developed economies.
Developing countries: poorer countries, which often don’t have modern technology and industries and
depend on developed countries for many of their manufactured goods.
DETERMINING LEVELS OF DEVELOPMENT
Analyze the basics of development:
GDP per capita: Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total value of all the goods and services produced in a
given country, in a year. In most countries, the Gross domestic product (GDP) is the official measure of the
economic output because it is the best basis for evaluating the well being of the citizens of a given country.
A common measure of the standard of living is the per capita Gross Domestic Product, which is calculated by
dividing the GDP of a country by its population.
GDP composition by sector Gross Domestic Product composition by sector indicates the percentage of the GDP
that comes from the agricultural, manufacturing and service sectors.
% of urban and rural population: The % of the total population living in areas termed “urban” and/or “rural”
by that country.
(US = 75% urban, 25% rural)
% of people employed in agriculture: the # of people involved in agriculture indicates subsistence (more
farmers) vs. commercial (less farmers) and industrial vs. non-industrial. (US = 2%)
Infant Mortality: the annual number of deaths of infants under age 1 year per 1,000 live births. A country,
which has less than 50 per 1,000, is said to have conquered hunger. (US = 7 per 1,000)
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Life expectancy (M, F): The average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live under current
mortality levels.
(US = 74, 80)
Total fertility rate
The total fertility rate is the average number of children that each woman will have during her lifetime.
Rate of natural increase
Birth rate (b) − death rate (d) = rate of natural increase (r).
Birth rate expressed as number of births per 1000 per year
death rate expressed as the number of deaths per 1000 per year
The world value for r peaked around 1990 and has declined since. This is a reflection of the decline in total
fertility rates (TFRs) in undeveloped countries, presumably as the various factors involved in the demographic
transition take hold, e.g.:

improved standard of living

increased confidence that your children will survive to maturity

improved status of women

increased use of birth control measures
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Comparative Development Statistics
Nigeria
Infant
Mortality
Rate
Life
Expectancy
at Birth
Total
Fertility
Rate
GDP
per
capita,
PPP
(2003)
GDP
composition
by sector
A= Agric.
I= Industry
S = Services
% of
Population
living below
poverty line
% of
population
living in
urban
areas
Rate of
Natural
Increase
100
52
5.7
$800
A = 41%
I = 16%
S = 43%
60
36
2.9%
33
71
2.2
$7,600
A = 8%
I = 38%
S = 54%
22
81
1.3%
4.1
78
1.3
$27,600
A = 1%
I = 31%
S = 68%
Not Available
88
-.2%
80
51
4.7
$1,600
A = 30%
I = 20%
S = 50%
80
36
1.9%
39
69
2.5
$6,700
A = 12%
I = 30%
S = 59%
18
59
1.4%
6.7
77
2.0
$37,800
A = 2%
I = 18%
S = 80%
12
79
.6%
Brazil
Germany
Haiti
Turkey
United
States
Source: www.prb.org World Population Data Sheet 2004
CIA World Factbook
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Demographic Transition
The shift from high birth and death rates to low birth as well as death rates is called the demographic transition.
The demographic transition model seeks to explain the transformation of countries from having high birth
and death rates to low birth and death rates. In developed countries this transition began in the eighteenth
century and continues today. Less developed countries began the transition later and are still in the midst of
earlier stages of the model.
Figure 1: Changes in birth and death rates during the four stages of the demographic transition.
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Explanation of the Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1 : Pre
industrialization: Stable
population growth
Stage 2: Rapid population growth
Stage 3: Continued and decreasing
population growth
Stage 4:
Stable low
population
growth
High Birth rates
High Birth rates
Falling Birth rates
Low Birth
rates
No or little Family Planning
Same as stage 1
Family Planning utilized ,
contraceptives, abortions, sterilization
and other government incentives
Parents have many
children because few
survive
A lower infant mortality rates means
less pressure to have children
Many children are needed
to work the land
Increased mechanization and
industrialization means less need for
labor
Some religious beliefs and
cultural traditions
encourage large families
Increased desire for material
possessions and less desire for large
families
Emancipation of women
High Death Rates
Falling Death Rates
Death rates Low
Disease and plague (e.g.
bubonic, cholera)
Improved medical care e.g.
vaccinations , hospitals, doctors, new
drugs and scientific inventions
Same as stage 2
Famine , uncertain food
supplies and poor diet
Poor hygiene, no piped
clean water or sewage
disposal
Death rates
Low
Improved sanitation and waters
supply
Improvements in food production in
terms of quality and quantity
Improved transport to move food and
doctors
A decrease in child mortality
Source: http://www.bized.ac.uk/virtual/dc/copper/theory/th10.htm
http://www.geog.ouc.bc.ca/conted/onlinecourses/geog_210/210_3_6.html
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How to Interpret Population Pyramids
The most important demographic characteristic of a population is its age-sex structure. Population Pyramids
graphically display this information to improve understanding and ease comparison.
Population Pyramids display the percentage or actual amount of a population broken down by gender and age.
The five-year age increments on the y-axis allow the pyramid to vividly reflect long term trends in the birth and
death rates but also reflect shorter term baby-booms, wars, and epidemics.
You can analyze a country’s demographic transition over time by studying its’ population pyramids.
Population Pyramids:





graphically display a population's age and gender composition;
are bar graphs;
show numbers or proportions of males and females in each age group;
show gains of cohort members due to immigration and birth, and loss of cohort members due to
emigration and death; and
reflect population growth or decline.
The fertility rate of a population is the single most important influence on the shape of a population pyramid.


The more children per parent, the broader will be the base of the pyramid.
Mortality will also have an influence on the shape; however, it will be far less important an influence than
fertility.
There are three key types of population pyramids:
Rapid Growth
Countries experiencing rapid growth would be in stage 2 of the demographic transition.
Rapid Growth population pyramids show larger numbers or percentages of the population in the younger age
groups, usually with each age group smaller in size or proportion than the one born before it. These types of
pyramids are usually found in populations with very large fertility rates and lower than average life expectancies.
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The age-sex distributions of Latin American and many Third World countries would probably display expansive
population pyramids.
Slow Growth
Countries experiencing slow growth would be in stage 3 or 4 of the demographic transition.
The United States experiences a rate of natural increase of .6%. Would you characterize the United States as
being in Stage 3 or 4 of the Demographic Transition?
Negative Growth
Countries experiencing negative growth would be in stage 4 of the demographic transition.
Germany is experiencing a period of negative growth (-0.2%). As negative growth in a country continues, the
population is reduced. A population can shrink due to a low birth rate and a stable death rate. Increased
emigration may also be a contributor to a declining population.
Source: http://geography.miningco.com/library/weekly/aa071497.htm
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Population Pyramid Summary for Brazil
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