Download Factors that Affect Public Opinion

Public Opinion
Public Opinion
• Did the Framer’s intend for our
government to mirror public
opinion?
• What part of our government
protects against public
opinion or “popular passions”?
Checks on American Govt. from
Public Opinion
• Representative govt.
–(Federalist 10 & creation of
republic)
• Federalism
• Separation of powers
• BOR
• Independent judiciary
Public Opinion
• The attitudes, perceptions, and
viewpoints individuals hold about
government and politics
• Influenced by political culture and
political socialization
• Skewed by limited political education and
efficacy
• Shaped by government, interest groups,
and mass media
Development of Polls
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Based on the ideas of Geogre Gallup
Random Sample
1000-1500
Valid Questions
– Clear, fair, unbiased, not misleading
• Control of poll
– Tone of question, basic knowledge of issues
• Anaylysis
– Sampling errors (+ or – 3%), time and place of
poll
Political Socialization
• Process through which an individual
acquires political opinions and assimilates
into our nation’s political system
• Agents of socialization
–Family
–School
–Peer Groups
–Mass Media
Factors that Affect Public
Opinion
Religion
• Religious influences on opinion most pronounced
on social issues
• Jews are the most liberal demographic group
today
• Catholics tend to be liberal
• Protestants tend to be conservative
• Fundamentalist Christians (born again or evangelicals) are
the most conservative groups today socially
• Christian Coalition- Republican affiliation, was once very
powerful grassroots organization
• Atheist or agnostics are more liberal than conservative
Gender Gap
• Women are more likely to support the
Democratic party
• Men have become increasingly Republican
since the 1960s
• Biggest reason for gap: size of govt., gun
control, spending programs aimed at poor,
and gay rights, environmental protection,
universal healthcare
• Since the 1980s women have voted at higher
rates then men
Education
• Increased schooling leads to greater
political activity
• College tends to have a liberalizing
affect on students
• Students at the most prestigious or
selective colleges are the most liberal of
all
Married v. Unmarried
• Singles are more likely to vote for
Democratic candidates
• Married voters are more likely to
support Republicans
Sexual Orientation
• Homosexuals tend to side with liberal
policies especially regarding social issues
• Homosexuals concentrated in urban
areas
• Strong religious affiliations compel most
heterosexuals to deny equal rights to
homosexuals
Social Class
• Americans vote less based on class
than Europeans
• The main reason is COLLEGE- the
great equalizer of the social classes.
• This factor has recently been the
most unclear and hardest trait to
predict
Social Class
• Lower-class
– Limited education
– Prefer more government economic intervention
– Tend to vote Democrat, but low voter turnout
• Working-class (blue-collar)
– Tend to vote Democrat, but subject to other influences
– White blue-collar workers tend to vote more Republican
• Middle-class (white-collar)
– Tend to be split and dependent on other influences
• Upper-class
– Tend to vote Republican with pro-business policies and
less government economic intrusion
Race and Ethnicity
• Whites vote more
Republican
– Support death penalty, more
defense spending
• Blacks vote more
Democrat
– Affirmative action, national
healthcare
• Hispanics vote more
Democrat
– immigration
• Asians vote more
Republican
2008 Democratic primary campaign between
Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton
– Conservative culture
Region
• New England - more
liberal
• Southeast/Bible Belt more conservative
• Midwest - more
conservative
• Pacific - more liberal
• Urban - more
liberal/Democratic
• Suburbs/small towns more conservative
• Rural - more
conservative/Republican
• “Solid South”
Cleavages in Public Opinion
• Public opinions are never absolute and always overlap
• Examples:
– Blacks vote Democrat due to support on affirmative
action and equality policies, but most blacks are
against gay marriage
– Cubans vote Republican despite majority of Hispanics
voting Democrat for immigration policies
– A blue-collar worker would vote Democrat for prounion policies, but votes Republican due to
conservative religious traditions
– Though men tend to vote more Republican than
women, most men support pro-choice policies