Download May 2007 - New Zealand Treasury

May 2007
Executive Summary
• Growth appears to be re-accelerating in the first half of 2007, as forecast in the Budget
Update.
• Domestic demand, underpinned by a buoyant labour market, remains strong.
• Tradables inflation is abating, but pressures remain in the domestic economy.
• A decline in firms’ outlook for their own activity signals slower growth in the second
half of 2007.
Data released during May, especially the record quarterly retail sales out-turn, confirmed our
view in the Budget Update that the reacceleration in domestic demand in late 2006 will be
sustained throughout the first half of 2007. We believe the retail industry and some other parts
of the services sector will be the largest contributors to around 1.0% GDP growth in the March
quarter. However, a fall in business confidence points to slower growth in the second half of
the year as forecast in the Budget Update.
The largest quarterly increase in retail sales since the series began in 1995 was driven by
discounting of goods (thanks to the appreciating dollar in the March quarter), continued solid
wage growth, house price growth (and therefore wealth growth), and high dairy prices. An
expected higher dairy payout appeared to fuel retail spending in Waikato and rural South Island,
with these regions recording the largest quarterly increases.
The labour market remains buoyant, with data released during the month showing strong
employment growth in the March quarter, consistent with recent business surveys showing
elevated hiring intentions. The unemployment rate rose slightly however, because of a large
increase in the participation rate. Labour income remains on forecast, owing to lower than
forecast wage growth and a fall in hours worked. We examine New Zealand’s working hours in
this month’s special topic.
A fall in firms expecting their own activity to increase over the coming year is consistent with our
view that growth will slow in late 2007. The Budget Update outlined a slow-down in late 2007,
thanks to the lagged effects of higher interest rates and the high exchange rate.
The inflation dichotomy continues with an appreciation of the exchange rate in the March
quarter containing the prices of imported goods but a stretched domestic economy ensuring
non-tradable inflation remains strong. The appreciating dollar saw falls in the prices paid for
inputs (when measured in aggregate), and soft growth in the prices of capital goods. Firms’
average expectations of consumer inflation for one and two years ahead remained stable.
Merchandise trade recorded a deficit of $212m in April, leading to an increase in the annual
trade deficit. Contributing to this was an increase in oil shipments and a large oil production
vessel. Despite rising commodity prices (for dairy and logs especially), the trade deficit is not
expected to ease significantly over 2007, owing to continued strength in the domestic economy
driving import demand. High commodity prices have contributed to a high exchange rate, as
have market perceptions that the Reserve Bank may raise the Official Cash Rate on 7 June.
ISSN-1175-6780 – Text finalised 1 June 2007
Page 1
Commentary
We expect GDP to record an increase of
around 1.0% in the March quarter…
GDP growth rebounded in the December quarter
and we are predicting this strength continued in
the March quarter. We expect growth of around
1.0%, slightly higher than our Budget Update
forecast of 0.9%. As has been the case over
recent history, we believe the services sector will
make the largest contribution to GDP growth.
Further indicators such as wholesale trade and
manufacturing data are released in June and will
shed more light on the March quarter GDP result,
which will be released on 29 June.
… with a strong contribution from private
consumption growth
The December quarter showed a lift in domestic
demand. Consistent with our Budget Update
view, data released during May, such as retail
sales, employment growth, wages and house
prices, indicate this re-acceleration is set to
continue in the first half of 2007. Private
consumption growth is still likely to be relatively
strong in the March quarter, possibly greater than
the 1.3% increase forecast in the Budget Update.
Employment growth was surprisingly high…
According to the Household Labour Force Survey,
employment growth was 1.2% in the March
quarter, significantly higher than market
expectations of 0.4% and our Budget Update
forecast of 0.2%. This out-turn represents a
significant bounce-back in employment growth
from a weak period in the second half of 2006.
Annual employment growth in the March quarter
was 1.7%, up from the December quarter when
annual growth was 1.4%.
While the employment growth series is volatile on
a quarterly basis, this bounce-back is consistent
with the resurgence we have seen in economic
activity of late and recent business surveys that
show hiring intentions remain elevated.
…and labour force participation increased
Despite the large increase in employment, the
unemployment rate rose slightly in the March
quarter (from 3.7% to 3.8%), due to a large
increase in the participation rate. Labour force
participation rose to 68.6% (seasonally adjusted),
its second highest rate since the series began in
March 1986. An increase in people doing part-
Monthly Economic Indicators – May 2007 – The Treasury
time work appears to be driving the increase in
the participation rate and helps explain the
quarterly 0.4% fall recorded in hours worked.
Labour income growth is still at a high level…
Labour income growth remains solid and in line
with our Budget Update forecast, despite a higher
than expected increase in employment. Labour
income remained on forecast thanks to a fall in
hours worked and lower than forecast wage
growth. Despite being lower than forecast, and
down from its mid 2006 peak, wage growth
remains high. Once merit increases are removed,
the Labour Cost Index (LCI) rose 3.2% in annual
terms in the March quarter (fig. 1). Wage
measures that include merit increases (such as
the Quarterly Employment Survey’s hourly
earnings and the unadjusted LCI) show annual
wage growth of about 4.5%, again down from mid2006 highs, but still strong when compared to
history.
Figure 1 – Wage growth
Annual % change
6
5
Annual % change
6
5
4
3
4
3
2
1
2
1
0
0
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
LCI salary & ordinary-time wages (unadjusted)
QES average ordinary-time hourly earnings
LCI salary & ordinary-time wages (adjusted)
Source: Statistics NZ
…which supported record retail sales growth
in the March quarter
The March 2007 quarterly increase in retail sales
was the largest since the series began in 1995 (by
all measures - volumes and values, core and
total). The increases were relatively broad-based
with most ‘core’ retail store types (i.e. excluding
automotive related store types) recording
increases in volumes sold in the March quarter.
Stores selling consumer durables such as
hardware, appliances, recreational goods, clothing
and footwear, recorded the largest increases in
the quarter amongst the ‘core’ group.
The core retail sales deflator fell 0.3% in the
quarter, indicating that firms have been
discounting products to increase volumes sold.
Page 2
Stores selling consumer durables discounted
particularly heavily (the deflator for these store
types fell 1.8% in the quarter). The appreciation
of the New Zealand dollar in the March quarter
helped firms to discount, while maintaining
margins.
Motor vehicle retailing volumes grew particularly
strongly in the March quarter (6.3%), rebounding
from weakness over the past two years. One
interpretation of this result is it merely reflects a
bounce-back after a weak period, possibly
enhanced by the lagged effect of lower petrol
prices (compared to mid last year) lowering the
cost of running cars (fig. 2).
Figure 2 – Car sales vs. petrol prices
Quarterly % change
6
Quarterly % change
-10
4
-5
2
0
0
5
-2
10
Figure 3 – TWI and Terms of Trade
Index Points
1150
Index Points
75
70
1100
65
1050
60
1000
55
950
50
900
45
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Terms of Trade (LHS)
TWI (RHS)
Source: Statistics NZ, RBNZ
March quarter’s strong household spending looks
to have continued into April with the value of retail
spending funded on electronic cards increasing
1.0% in April compared to March (seasonally
adjusted).
…as has house price growth
Source: Statistics NZ
House price growth is also contributing to the
continued strength in household consumption by
boosting the wealth of homeowners. Data from
the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ)
showed a sizable increase in the median house
price in the month of April to $346,200. Prices in
April were 14.4% higher than in April 2006, the
highest annual growth rate since November 2005.
High dairy prices appear to have also
supported retail sales…
Slowing net migration may dampen house
price growth…
The expectation of a higher dairy payout
appeared to boost retail sales in Waikato (2.4%
quarterly growth) and ‘rest of the South Island’
(2.3% quarterly growth) in the March quarter.
Fonterra subsequently announced in May that the
payout for the 2006/07 season would be $4.35 per
kilogram of milk solids (kg/ms) compared to the
previous forecast of $4.15.
Strong departure growth in the first four months of
2007 meant annual net permanent and long-term
(PLT) migration fell to a lower-than-forecast
11,200 in April, down from a recent peak of
14,800 in November 2006. In the April month,
arrivals exceeded departures by 140 compared to
1,830 in November 2006 (all figures are
seasonally adjusted).
Depending on how much of the increased return
is used to retire debt or fund new investment,
higher dairy returns look set to contribute
positively to private consumption into next year
with Fonterra announcing later in May that the
forecast payout for the 2007/08 season is $5.53
per kg/ms. Higher dairy prices are advantageous
not only to rural New Zealand. All consumers
benefit as the resulting higher terms of trade lead
to a higher exchange rate lowering the price of
imported goods (fig. 3).
According to REINZ, house sales fell for the fifth
month in a row, falling 6.4% in April compared to
March (seasonally adjusted). The easing in
house sales and lack of growth in building
consents (the number of building consents
excluding apartments issued in April was about
the same as December last year) is consistent
with the lower number of PLT migrants (and
higher mortgage rates). The Budget Update
forecast this easing in general housing activity to
feed into a slowing in the rate of quarterly house
price growth in late 2007.
-4
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Cars sold (2 quarter moving average, LHS)
Petrol prices (2 quarter moving average, RHS, inverted)
15
Monthly Economic Indicators – May 2007 – The Treasury
Page 3
...but not wage growth
While slowing PLT migration will slow house price
growth, slowing migration will also restrict growth
in the labour supply keeping unemployment low
and pressure on wages.
A stretched productive sector means nontradables inflation remains high …
The Capital Goods Price Index increased 0.4% in
the March quarter (compared to 0.7% in 2006
December quarter) bringing annual growth down
to 3.7% (from 4.1% last quarter). The key feature
of the out-turn was the split between price growth
in tradable and non-tradable capital goods. The
current pressure on productive capacity in the
New Zealand economy means non-tradable
inflation pressures continue to be strong.
Residential building costs, for example, increased
1.0% in the quarter.
…but the high exchange rate lowered the
prices of imported goods
The higher exchange rate in the March quarter
contributed to containing the prices of traded
capital goods, with the prices of plant, machinery
and equipment falling or flat in the quarter (at an
aggregate level). The appreciating exchange rate
(and lower fuel prices) also lowered the input
Producer Price Index (a measure of the input
costs to firms, excluding labour) by 1.6%, with the
manufacturing (-1.5%), wholesale (-8.0%), retail
(-0.2%) and transport (-2.1%) industries all
recording quarterly falls in their input costs.
Prices received for firms’ outputs fell 0.2% in the
quarter. A number of industry-specific factors
caused this. Increased supply lowered the price
received for horticultural products, whilst lower
world meat prices and a higher exchange rate
weighed heavily on lamb prices. Lower spot
prices for electricity (thanks to lower fuel and gas
prices) meant the wholesale price for electricity
fell.
Pricing intentions ease…
According to the May National Bank Business
Outlook, a net 29.2% of firms expect to raise
prices over the coming year compared to 31.5% a
month ago, possibly because of a weaker outlook
for their own activity.
Despite falls in pricing intentions, firms’
expectations of average consumer inflation (as
measured by the Reserve Bank ACNeilson
Monthly Economic Indicators – May 2007 – The Treasury
survey) remained stable with inflation expected to
be 2.7% in one year and 2.6% in two years.
Recent momentum is expected to continue
during most of 2007…
As outlined in the Budget Update, solid labour
income growth, rising house prices and a strong
terms of trade are all expected to contribute to
momentum in growth in the first half of this year.
The extent to which this momentum is maintained
is a key question. The Budget Update had GDP
quarterly growth moderating in the second half of
2007, due to a combination of a high exchange
rate and recent interest rate increass.
The May National Bank Business Outlook
supports this view, with a large fall in firms’ own
activity expectations for the year a head (fig 4). A
net of firms 13.7% expected their activity to
improve in May compared to a net 23.8% in April
(seasonally adjusted).
Expectations about future activity were particularly
weak amongst those most exposed to the tighter
monetary conditions, with manufacturers and
builders being the most negative about future
activity.
Figure 4 – Own activity and GDP
Net respondents (s.a.)
80
Annual % change
8
60
6
40
4
20
2
0
0
-20
-2
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
National Bank activity outlook (Advanced 6 months)
GDP (RHS)
Source: Statistics NZ
Monthly trade in deficit…
Monthly trade recorded a deficit of $212 million in
April after a $62 million surplus in March. This led
to an increase in the annual trade deficit to $6,020
million in April (fig. 5).
Higher oil imports in April and the importation of a
large oil production vessel meant imports were
13.5% higher than April last year. However, when
the value of large individual import items ($231
million) are removed, imports increased by only
5.8%. Strong domestic demand resulted in strong
monthly growth in imports of consumption goods
and passenger cars of 3.8% and 7.0% in the
month respectively.
Page 4
On the export side, high commodity prices meant
that exports were 5.2% higher than April 2006.
The improvement in exports is due to a lift in
values of fruit (mainly kiwifruit), logs and wood,
and dairy products exported.
Figure 5 – Merchandise trade balance (annual)
NZ$ (billion)
45
NZ$ (billion)
2
40
35
30
Overall oil prices fell slightly in May
-2
After peaking at just under US$67 per barrel at
the start of the month, West Texas Crude oil
prices fell to US$61, before recovering to around
US$64 per barrel at the end of May. The increase
in the second half of May was due to uncertainty
around the geopolitical situation in some oil
exporting countries, most notably Nigeria.
-5
20
15
0
-3
25
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Total exports
Total imports
Trade balance (RHS)
Zealand dollar weakness as it readjusted from its
April highs, as well as strength in the US dollar.
The New Zealand dollar also weakened slightly
against the Pound, Yen, the Australian dollar and
the Euro. The high terms of trade and market
perceptions that the Reserve Bank may raise the
Official Cash Rate on 7 June have kept the
currency at a high level, however.
-7
Source: Statistics NZ
What’s coming up…
The exchange rate fell slightly in April
A number of key pieces of data are due to be
published in June. On 7 June, the Reserve Bank
of New Zealand will review the Official Cash Rate.
Market expectations on 1 June were for the
Official Cash Rate to remain steady at 7.75%, with
the median probability of an increase being 35%
amongst bank economists.
At the end of May, the New Zealand dollar was
buying US$0.737, having fell 1.2% against the US
during the month. The fall reflects both New
Publication of Balance of Payments figures and
Gross Domestic Product in late June will complete
the picture of the economy in the March quarter.
Despite rising commodity prices (for dairy and
logs especially), the trade deficit is not expected
to ease significantly over 2007 owing to continued
strength in the domestic economy driving import
demand.
Special Topic: New Zealand’s Working Hours
This special topic examines working hours in New
Zealand and compares them with other nations in
the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD).
Figure 6 – Employment distribution in New Zealand1
% of employment
30
25
20
Relatively high hours and more flexibility…
Working hours are relatively high in New Zealand,
especially compared to Western Europe. In 2005,
the average employed person worked 34.8 hours
per week, which was about eighth highest among
the 30 OECD nations. South Korea was highest
at 45.3, followed by Greece, the Czech Republic,
Hungary, Poland, Turkey, Mexico, and New
Zealand, with the United States close behind.
New Zealand has a high incidence of part-time
work (under 30 hours a week) and of long hours.
In 2005, 22% of employment was part-time, the
sixth equal highest in the OECD, and 17% was at
least 50 hours a week.
Monthly Economic Indicators – May 2007 – The Treasury
1986
2000
2006
15
10
5
0
0
1-
10-
20-
30-
35-
40
41-
45-
50+
Hours worked per week
Source: Statistics NZ
Nevertheless, 53% of those employed in 2005
worked 30 to 49 hours, including a quarter that
reported exactly 40 hours. Further, almost all
1
Someone who usually works a positive number of hours can
have actual hours of zero (e.g. if they are on holiday).
Page 5
growth in employment since 2000 has been in
work of 30 to 49 hours, mainly at the expense of
longer working weeks of at least 50 hours (fig. 6).
…but average hours have been trending down
Although still high relative to other OECD nations,
more recent data show average hours trending
down to 34.2 per week in the March 2007 year,
which is the lowest in at least 20 years (fig. 7).
The fall may reflect some of these factors: firms
reducing hours of staff because of the slowing in
economic growth; workers scaling back hours to
enjoy more leisure; some workers anticipating an
extra week’s leave from 1 April 2007; changes in
composition due to growth in the service sector
and labour force participation.
Figure 7 – Average working hours per employed
person in New Zealand
Hours per week (annual average)
37
36
35
34
33
1986
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
Average weekly hours worked per employed person
Source: Statistics NZ
Individual working hours have fallen slightly, but
long hours can show up more in data for couples.
Women still work shorter hours on average than
men, but rising employment rates for women have
lifted household hours worked, in many cases
above 100 a week. Those working the longest
hours tended to be among the highest qualified in
2001 after being among the least qualified in
1986.
The number of hours is one aspect of working life.
Others are what times the hours are worked (e.g.
40 hours may be 9pm-7am Friday-Monday), the
nature of work, and how many jobs are worked.
Over the past 20 years, the proportion of workers
holding more than one job has been fairly steady
around 4%, while overtime hours have fallen.
Long hours but moderate labour productivity
The aggregate number of hours worked in New
Zealand per head of population (instead of per
worker as discussed above) is the sixth highest in
the OECD. The high ranking not only reflects high
average hours, but also low unemployment and
high labour force participation. However, labour
productivity (output per hour) is relatively modest
in New Zealand.
Growth in total hours worked slowed to just 0.5%
over the year to March 2007 because of the fall in
average working hours and easing employment
growth. If GDP rose by around 1.7% in the year
to March 2007 as expected (GDP data are due for
release on 29 June), then labour productivity
growth would exceed 1% per annum for the first
time in three years. Recent GDP growth has
largely been driven by more hours worked, with
labour productivity growth generally modest due
to factors such as labour hoarding (when the
economy slowed) and the large increase in labour
force participation. Although there is still room for
higher participation by some groups, labour
market participation is already high by OECD
standards and offers less scope for growth in the
long term than labour productivity.
Monthly Economic Indicators is a regular report prepared by the Forecasting and Monitoring team of the Treasury.
Disclaimer: The Treasury has made every effort to ensure that the information contained in this report is reliable, but makes no
guarantee of its accuracy or completeness and does not accept any liability for any errors. The information and opinions
contained in this report are not intended to be used as a basis for commercial decisions and the Treasury accepts no liability for
any decisions made in reliance on them. The Treasury may change, add to, delete from, or otherwise amend the contents of
this report at any time without notice.
Contact for enquiries:
The Treasury
PO Box 3724
Wellington
NEW ZEALAND
Monthly Economic Indicators – May 2007 – The Treasury
[email protected]
Tel: +64 4 472 2733
Fax: +64 4 473 0982
Page 6
New Zealand Key Economic Data
4 May 2007
Quarterly Indicators
01 June 2007
Quarterly Indicators
2005Q3
2005Q4
2006Q1
2006Q2
2006Q3
2006Q4
2007Q1
qtr % chg1
0.1
-0.1
0.7
0.4
0.3
0.8
...
2.8
2.2
2.0
1.6
1.4
1.5
...
Real Private consumption
ann ave % chg
qtr % chg1
0.5
0.5
0.8
-0.4
0.3
1.1
...
4.8
4.7
4.3
3.3
2.5
2.0
...
Real Public consumption
ann ave % chg
qtr % chg1
-0.2
1.5
0.8
1.8
0.8
0.8
...
4.2
4.1
4.7
4.0
4.1
4.2
...
Real residential Investment
ann ave % chg
qtr % chg1
-5.1
1.8
1.0
-6.1
3.8
2.3
...
ann ave % chg
qtr % chg1
-4.3
-4.3
-4.7
-4.8
-3.2
-2.4
...
Export volumes
-1.1
1.1
-1.8
3.2
3.0
-2.7
...
1.0
-0.6
-0.3
0.4
1.4
2.0
...
Import volumes
ann ave % chg
qtr % chg1
1.1
-3.6
-0.7
-1.4
0.8
1.4
...
ann ave % chg
8.6
5.5
4.1
1.0
-2.3
-2.5
...
Nominal GDP - Expenditure basis
ann ave % chg
5.5
4.7
4.6
3.9
3.5
4.0
...
Real GDP per Capita
ann ave % chg
1.7
1.3
1.1
0.7
0.4
0.5
...
Real Gross National Disposable Income
ann ave % chg
2.0
1.1
0.6
0.0
-0.2
0.6
...
NZ$ millions
-12992
-13931
-14922
-15141
-14508
-14447
...
% of GDP
-8.5
-9.0
-9.6
-9.7
-9.2
-9.0
...
NZ$ millions
-10139
-10753
-11182
-11782
-11843
-12097
...
qtr % chg
-0.4
-2.5
0.8
2.6
-2.2
2.4
...
ann % chg
0.9
-1.9
-3.3
0.5
-1.3
3.7
...
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Real Production GDP
External Trade
Current account balance (annual)
Investment income balance (annual)
Merchandise terms of trade
Prices
CPI inflation
qtr % chg
1.1
0.7
0.6
1.5
0.7
-0.2
0.5
ann % chg
3.4
3.2
3.3
4.0
3.5
2.6
2.5
Tradable inflation
ann % chg
1.9
1.8
2.1
3.8
3.0
1.1
0.8
Non-tradable inflation
ann % chg
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.0
3.9
4.0
GDP deflator
ann % chg
2.0
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.7
2.4
...
Consumption deflator
ann % chg
2.1
2.2
2.3
3.3
3.3
2.8
...
2143.0
Labour Market
Employment (HLFS)
000s7
2086
2088
2107
2127
2116
2118
qtr % chg1
1.1
0.1
0.9
0.9
-0.5
0.1
1.2
ann % chg1
3.2
1.5
2.6
3.1
1.4
1.4
1.7
Unemployment rate
%1
3.6
3.6
3.9
3.6
3.8
3.7
3.8
Participation rate
%1
68.1
68.0
68.5
68.7
68.2
68.0
68.6
qtr % chg
ann % chg
1.1
3.1
0.8
3.1
0.6
3.2
0.7
3.3
1.0
3.2
0.9
3.2
0.6
3.2
0.8
LCI salary & wage rates - total (adjusted)6
LCI salary & wage rates - total (unadjusted)6
QES average hourly earnings - total6
Labour productivity7
qtr % chg
1.9
1.4
1.1
1.0
1.4
1.3
ann % chg
5.3
5.4
5.7
5.5
5.1
4.9
4.5
qtr % chg
ann % chg
1.0
4.3
0.8
5.4
1.4
5.3
1.2
4.4
1.6
5.0
0.8
5.0
1.0
4.6
ann ave % chg
0.0
0.4
-0.1
0.2
0.8
0.7
...
Confidence Indicators/Surveys
WMM - Consumer confidence3
Index
120.2
110.1
109.3
106.0
111.7
119.7
117.7
QSBO - general business situation4
net %
-32.0
-61.0
-49.0
-43.8
-19.1
3.5
-15.3
QSBO - own activity outlook4
net %
9.3
-6.1
-1.6
-0.8
10.5
15.0
16.1
Monthly Economic Indicators – May 2007 – The Treasury
Page 7
Monthly Indicators
Monthly Indicators
2006M11
2006M12
2007M 1
2007M 2
2007M 3
2007M 4
2007M 5
...
External Sector
Merchandise trade - exports
Merchandise trade - imports
Merchandise trade balance
Visitor arrivals
mth % chg1
-1.5
6.1
-1.1
-2.0
2.8
-0.5
ann % chg1
8.2
10.9
12.9
9.8
4.4
5.2
...
mth % chg1
-8.2
2.0
4.7
-5.1
1.8
3.1
...
...
ann % chg1
-5.6
11.5
6.7
0.0
4.8
13.8
NZ$ million
number1
-820
-346
-825
-129
62
-212
...
206,610
203,760
197,630
210,540
208,290
203,710
...
mth % chg1
-11.3
-4.0
4.7
6.9
-1.9
0.7
...
ann % chg1
-1.0
-20.7
-5.2
-8.4
3.4
9.0
...
mth % chg1
2.0
4.3
-2.0
-1.4
-1.0
-6.4
...
ann % chg1
6.4
19.1
19.9
18.1
8.3
9.0
...
NZ$1
325,119
331,553
329,440
338,071
340,117
346,163
...
mth % chg1
0.0
0.2
1.0
2.5
0.8
...
...
ann % chg1
5.5
5.2
6.7
8.2
9.0
...
...
mth % chg1
-0.1
0.7
0.5
2.1
1.3
...
...
...
Housing
Dwelling consents - residential
House sales - dwellings
REINZ - median dwelling price
Consumer
Core retail sales
Total retail sales
ann % chg1
4.0
5.0
5.7
6.3
8.4
...
mth % chg
-4.0
-7.5
11.2
-10.1
15.3
-17.5
...
ann % chg
mth % chg1
-15.3
-17.8
-5.8
-12.5
-11.0
-4.8
...
-3.4
-2.0
7.1
-2.6
-2.2
1.8
...
ann % chg1
6.2
7.0
9.7
8.0
3.0
14.6
...
Permanent & long-term arrivals
number1
7,090
6,610
6,530
6,650
7,130
6,570
...
Permanent & long-term Departures
number1
5,260
5,570
6,110
6,130
6,490
6,430
...
Net PLT migration
number1
1,830
1,040
420
520
640
140
...
number
14,757
14,609
14,116
13,151
12,081
11,222
...
New car registrations
Credit card billings
Migration
Net PLT migration (12 month total)
Commodity Prices
Brent oil price
US$/Barrel
59.22
62.26
54.50
57.97
62.36
67.69
...
WTI oil price
US$/Barrel
59.29
62.03
54.78
59.27
60.56
63.97
...
ANZ NZ commodity price index
mth % chg
1.3
0.7
0.8
1.7
1.6
0.1
...
ann % chg
10.8
12.9
12.2
11.7
8.7
4.7
...
mth % chg
2.1
3.8
1.3
1.4
2.0
4.8
...
ann % chg
5.3
9.4
11.1
13.0
17.1
20.8
...
NZD/USD
$2
0.6689
0.6918
0.6953
0.6939
0.6982
0.7347
...
NZD/AUD
$2
0.8661
0.8805
0.8883
0.8865
0.8815
0.8880
...
June 1979 = 1002
66.6
68.0
69.1
68.8
68.6
71.3
...
7.25
7.25
7.25
7.25
7.50
7.75
...
90 day bank bill rate
%
%2
7.61
7.66
7.70
7.75
7.88
7.98
...
10 year govt bond rate
%2
5.71
5.77
5.93
5.94
5.87
6.06
...
National Bank - business confidence
net %
-14.0
-7.7
-4.2
-5.9
-12.5
-19.4
-48.3
National Bank - activity outlook
One News5 - economic performance
qtr % chg
quarterly percent change
mth % chg
monthly percent change
ann % chg
annual percent change
ann ave % chg
annual average percent change
net %
23.7
24.0
25.0
25.7
24.1
22.5
7.8
net %
-6.8
-3.5
-0.3
3.0
-2.0
-4.0
Seasonally adjusted
Average (11am)
Westpac McDermott Miller
Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion
One News Colmar Brunton
Ordinary time
Production GDP divided by HLFS hours worked
-8.0
ANZ world commodity price index
Financial Markets
Trade weighted index (TWI)
Official cash rate (OCR)
Confidence Indicators/Surveys
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Sources:
Statistics New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, National Bank of New Zealand, NZIER, ANZ, Datastream, Westpac McDermott Miller, One
News Colmar Brunton
Monthly Economic Indicators – May 2007 – The Treasury
Page 8