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Macroeconomic Objectives INFLATION refers to a situation in the economy where there Is a general and sustained increased in prices, and is measured in terms of indices such as the CPI. Types and Causes Policy Options Demand-pull inflation (shifting AD) Contractionary demand Supply side policies Increased AD (anything that changes CIGXM) management policies. Market policies o Reduction in exchange rates Generally used for Dd-pull Manpower policies: o Reduction in taxes inflation. - Improve efficiency of labour o Reduction in i/r (hence Im) markets such that unN Fiscal policy o Rising consumer confidence - Better matching of workers to o Faster economic growth externally T Im, C AD jobs Changes in money supply Pro-competition policies: G AD o Money supply growing faster that output Reduce the monopoly/market o Increased bank borrowing power of unions/business, such Monetary policy Cost-push inflation (shifting AS) they unable to push up W rates i/r Im, C AD Higher costs ahead of average productivity SsM i/r etc o Wage-push inflation increases. (e.g. antitrust laws) o Profits-push inflation - firms passing on costs to Wage-Price policies consumers by raising prices - Wage guideposts o Supply-side inflation - rise in prices of imported raw - Price guideposts materials - Wage-price freeze o Higher import/export prices Supply side economics o Increase in the level of indirect taxes - Increase AS e.g., via increasing o Structural inflation due to structural rigidities (like technological capabilities labour immobility) Conflicts Note that regulating inflation should always be a government’s first priority as it may lead to a major economic collapse as well as the implementation of currency reforms. Meeting other policy objectives often conflicts with decreasing inflation – e.g. increasing employment, economic growth etc.: Phillips’ Curve: Trade off between unemployment and inflation? Stagflation, slumpflation Consequences Internal External Case 1: Demand-pull inflation Case 2: Cost-push inflation BOP – CP, relative prices of exports quantity of exports Negligible change in output, output, unemployment and NY current account worsens feedback mechanism problem unemployment and NY all fall worsens especially when inflation is cost-push, may alleviate economy at Yf. Consequently, SOL falls demand-pull inflation* GPL increases. *Cheaper M lower Dd for local goods X-M AE Consequently, SOL falls. FDI – FDI will probably (due to inflation being a sign that the economy is unstable), but depends on the degree of inflation Short run INFLATION Long run BOP worsens – pressure on xcr to depreciate. Lower level of investments Moderate/high inflation business confidence Im rate of EG limited (PPC does not shift out as much) Mild inflation stimulates EG and builds business confidence as it is a sign of a healthy economy Im PPC shifts outward Savings decrease, consequently, EG is limited The value of money falls as people would rather consume at the present time SsM available for Im i/r Im EG is limited Redistribution of income Wage price spiral Prices Dd for higher W W prices etc. Function of money breaks down - Money as a medium of exchange, serves as a store of value. Under severe inflation, these functions break down. Regression of the economy into one that deals with barter trade. Consequently, the price mechanism is distorted (under hyperinflation) and can no longer rationally allocate resources.