Download Source: DTZ Research

Presentation
on the Greek Real Estate
Investment Market
New York
Monday 30th October 2000
Agenda
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Greece in a European Economy
Greece in European Property Market
Greek Real Estate Market Overview
Why invest in Greece?
Greece in a European Economy
GDP Growth
C zech R epublic
R ussia
Italy
Germany
Swit'land
T urkey
A ustria
D enmark
F rance
UK
N o rway
Sweden
B elgium
P o rtugal
Greece
N 'lands
Spain
H ungary
F inland
P o land
Ireland
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Total Growth (%) over 1997-1999
Source: Consensus Forecasts
European inflation
%
25
20
15
10
5
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Greece
Italy
Portugal
Spain
France
UK
Source : OECD (1990-9), Consensus Forecasts (2000-1)
European interest rates
%
25
20
15
10
5
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
Greece
1994
Italy
1995
1996
Portugal
1997
Spain
1998
France
1999
2000
2001
UK
Source : OECD
Greek GDP growth and inflation
GDP
5 growth (%)
Inflation25(%)
4
20
3
2
15
1
10
0
5
-1
-2
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
GDP
Inflation
Sources: OECD, Consensus Forecasts
Greece in European Property
Market
European Cross-Border
Direct Investment in Real Estate - by Origin
Billions
Euro
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
€
€
€
€
€
€
€
€
€
€
€
Ireland
Other
UK
Scandinavia
Far East
Netherlands
MiddleEast
Germany
1997 1998 1999 2000
Source DTZ Research
N.America
Prime office rents
Euro/sq.m/annum
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Mid-2000
Brussels
Istanbul
Lisbon
Vienna
Amsterdam
Milan
Madrid
Dublin
Athens
Stockholm
Paris
London (City)
Source: DTZ Research
European prime office yields
(current)
10
9
8
7
6
%
5
4
3
2
1
0
Mid-2000
Dublin
Madrid
Paris
Stockholm
Frankfurt
Milan
London (city)
Vienna
Amsterdam
Brussels
Lisbon
Athens
Source: DTZ Research
European office yield trends
14
12
Paris
10
Athens
Milan
8
Rome
%
6
Barcelona
4
Madrid
Lisbon
2
London
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
mid2000
Source: DTZ Research
European shopping centre density
1999
Sweden
N'lands
France
UK
Eire
Austria
EU AVERAGE
Spain
Switzerland
Portugal
Germany
Italy
Belgium
Greece
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Gross Lettable Area (sq.m) per 1,000 inhabitants
Source : Various
Greece Real Estate Market
Overview
A Changing Market
• Entry to Euro-Zone – Jan 2001
• Lowering of interest rates
• Infrastructure Projects
– New Airport
– Greater Athens Ring Road and other road projects
– Expansion of Metro System
• 2004 Olympic Games and associated projects
• Legal Framework and securitisation through mutual funds
Characteristics
• Traditionally owner-occupied
• High State ownership – although increasing
disposals through privatisations
• Immature Investment Market
• Historical lack of transparency and information
• Currently increasing interest from domestic and
international investors.
The Attica market
Development opportunities
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Central Athens undersupplied with quality product
Urban regeneration in Central Athens and Pireaus.
Demand for large spaces cannot be satisfied
Development activity continues in prime locations.
New Airport - Mesoghia Valley
Olympic Games in 2004 and associated infrastructure
projects
• Interest from major foreign players: Chelverton, Lend
Lease, Sonae, TrizecHahn, Rodamco, Hindes
• East Coast of Attica – expansion of ports
Source: DTZ Research
Why Invest in Greece?
International Real Estate Cycle
Source: Deutsche Bank Real Estate Private Equity
Why invest in Greece ?
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Entry into the Euro in Jan 2001
High rate of economic growth
Reducing interest rate
Widening yield gap between bonds and real estate returns
Major EU Investment Program
Olympic Games 2004
Substantial Infrastructure Improvements
Positive rental growth prospects
Legal framework becoming more ‘investor friendly’
Indirect property investment vehicles emerging in mutualisation
Sale and leaseback opportunities
Emerging market performance within the EU
Source: DTZ Research