Download Fort St. John: Positioned for Growth

A Region Positioned for Growth
Table of Contents
Title
Introduction
Local Infrastructure
Page
3
4-6
Economic Profile
7
Transportation
8
Local Economies
9
Job Growth
10-11
Population Growth
12
Real Estate Market
13-14
Conclusion
14
Introduction
As a leader in residential real estate
investments in British Columbia, Western
Canadian Properties Group (WCPG) is
dedicated to offering clients the highest
quality investment properties in high growth
regions throughout Western Canada. With
over 20 years of experience, WCPG identifies
specific regions that are well positioned for
growth. By offering clients turnkey investment
opportunities, our goal is to assist individuals
in expanding their investment portfolio to
include investment real estate.
When selecting a region to develop, WCPG
focuses on three main factors that contribute to
a sound real estate investment. These factors
include economic growth, job growth, and population growth. Through extensive research,
WCPG identifies regions that best exemplify these fundamentals that contribute to better than
average returns.
Located within the Montney Basin, in the Peace River Region of Northeastern BC, Fort St. John
and Dawson Creek are experiencing the effects of a massive resource boom. With proposed
infrastructure developments totaling over $60 billion, Northeast BC is experiencing rapid job
growth and population growth significantly increasing the demand for housing as supply
struggles to keep pace.
Currently, the Peace River Region is considered fully employed and has the lowest
unemployment rate in the province, well below the national average. With a 50% projected
increase in net new jobs over the next 7 years, workers will need to migrate to the region to
satisfy the increased labor demand.1 As the population of the region grows, the demand for
accommodation grows as well. Currently, the vacancy rates are so low, that many people who
do find jobs in the region struggle to find a place to live.
Recognizing this opportunity, WCPG has purchased land throughout the region and is now
developing rental properties available for purchase by individual investors. With a top of the
line management team, WCPG offers the opportunity to investors across Canada to take
advantage of the largest resource boom in Canadian history.
Page | 3
Local Infrastructure
To accommodate the anticipated
increase in population, the city of Fort
St. John has been investing in
infrastructure. A public/private
partnership, the construction of a
new hospital began in 2009 on 40
acres donated by the City of Fort St
John. The old hospital had only 44
beds and failed to meet the needs of
the growing population of Fort St.
John and its neighboring
communities. In July 2008, the
provincial government accepted the city’s proposal for a new hospital. The Fort St. John
Hospital and Residential Care project includes a 55-bed acute care hospital and an additional
123 beds for a residential care facility, which replaced the aging North Peace Care Centre.
Construction on the $301.8 million project began in 2009 and the hospital opened its doors
June 20122
Fort St. John is also the proposed site for BC Hydro’s Site C
Project. In May 2010, it was announced by the provincial
government that the project had been given a preliminary goSite “C” Dam will
ahead. On June 13th the Peace River Regional District
create between
announced it had signed a 70 year legacy benefits agreement
35,000 direct and
with BC Hydro for $2.4 Million per year in recognition of the
indirect jobs.
contributions it will be making to the project. The need for
energy in the province is expected to increase by 40% in the
-The Vancouver Sun
next 20 years 3. The new dam will provide electricity for an
additional 460,000 homes and will be located approximately 5
minutes southwest of Fort St. John, on the Peace River4.
Housing demand and values in the city of Fort St John will begin to experience a ripple effect
from the population increase caused by the construction of the dam. The ripple is expected to
begin in rental properties and starter homes before working its way up to higher-valued
properties5. The government estimates that the dam will be completed and online by 20206. An
airport expansion is also in the talks. No dates have been given for the North Peace Regional
Airport expansion; however, the airport recently posted a commercial development plan on its
website, detailing some of its ideas for future construction at the airport.
As Northern British Columbia continues to grow due to the booming oil and gas sector, Fort St.
John lies at the center of increased future investment. With major projects underway in the
Peace River Region, job and population growth in the area is expected to accelerate rapidly in
the near term.
Page | 4
MAJOR PROJECTS IN PEACE RIVER REGION
BC Hydro Transmission Project 7
•
•
•
•
$250 Million Investment
Upgrading in preparation for
proposed regional projects
Construction Jobs: 110 Per Year
Est. Completion: Early 2015
Natural Gas Liquids Extraction Project 8
•
•
•
•
+$1 Billion Investment
Infrastructure will increase Natural Gas
Liquids in Northern BC
Construction Approved
Est. Completion: Late 2015
Shell Reclaimed Water Project 9
Natural Gas Processing Plant 10
Gordon M. Shrum Generating
Station Upgrades 11
CalFrac Chemical Storage & Head
Office12
•
•
•
•
•
•
$17 Million Investment
4,000 Cubic Meters of water per day
Supports up to 12,000 Households
Construction Completed
$402.3 Million Dollar Investment
Upgrading in preparation for
proposed regional projects
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
$1.5 Billion Investment
300 Workers On-Site During Construction
Jobs support over 1.2 Million man hours
Est. Completion: Late 2013
Multi-Million Dollar Investment
20,600 SQFT Chemical Storage Facility
30,600 SQFT Office Space
Air Liquide Liquid Nitrogen Plant13 Ferus Liquid Nitrogen Facility 14
•
•
•
•
$60 Million Investment
Located in Dawson Creek
Nitrogen Air Separation Plant
Completed: Mid 2013
Shell Groundbirch 15:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
$40 Million Investment
Constructed for the purpose of stimulating
the production of clean-burning natural gas
Completed: Early 2012
(See Figure 1)
Multi-Billion Dollar Investment
Petro China Purchased 20% Stake for
Est. $1 Billion
9 Natural Gas Processing Plants
Creating 2,700 Construction Jobs
Currently Holds Approx. 200 Permanent
Jobs
Potential Expansion to Supply LNG
Demand
Figure 1. Location of Shell Groundbirch Project
Page | 5
Coastal Gaslink Pipeline 16
•
•
•
•
$4 Billion Investment
700Km Pipeline from Dawson Creek to
proposed LNG facilities on Northern
BC’s Coast
Creating 2,500 jobs over 3 Years
Est. Construction Start: Mid 2015
Cutbank Ridge Partnership 17
•
•
•
•
Multi-Billion Dollar Investment
Mitsubishi invested 2.9 Billion for 40%
Developing 1.15 Million acres of
undeveloped land
Creating 10,000 ongoing jobs in BC over the
next 20 years
Site “C” Clean Energy Project 18
(See Figure 2)
•
•
•
•
$7.9 Billion Investment
Located minutes away from Fort. St
John
Creating 33,000 Direct and Indirect
Jobs
Now Hiring: Senior Procurement
Advisor
o Job Description:
o Contribute to design and
implementation of the
procurement of Site “C”
o Oversee:
o Contract Administration of
Construction
o Supply and Service
Contracts
Figure 2. Rendering of Proposed Site “C” Clean Energy Project
Page | 6
Economic Profile
Horn River & Montney Basin
(See Figure 3)
•
•
•
•
According to the Canadian
Association of Petroleum Producers,
production from Horn River and
Montney Basins could account for
22% of North American Shale Gas
production by 2020. 19
Fort St. John
The Canadian Gas Association
forecasts that the combined 52
billion cubic meters per year could
be produced from the Horn River
and Montney Basin in 2020;
Figure 3. Location of the Horn River and Montney Basin
equivalent to 70% of all the gas
20
that was used in Canada in 2010.
The Horn River Basin is the third largest reserve of shale gas in terms of potential
marketable gas21
The Horn River Basin shale contains 78 trillion cubic feet of marketable natural gas,
roughly 20% of Canada’s total production. 22
Currently, the Horn River and Montney Basins are receiving large investments from foreign
companies planning on exporting Natural Gas to Asia from BC’s West Coast. Figure 4 and Figure
5 indicate the amount of foreign capital being invested into both the natural gas and Oilsands
sectors. Total foreign and domestic investment into the Natural Gas sector is set to exceed Oil
Sands’ investment by $20 Billion supporting roughly 53,000 new jobs in BC. 23
Figure 4. Horn River/Montney Basin Foreign Investment
Figure 5. Alberta Oil Sands Foreign Investment
Page | 7
Transportation
Located in the Peace River Region of Northeastern BC, Fort St. John is well connected to the
province and the country. As mile “47” of the Alaska Highway (Highway 97), Fort St. John is
easily accessible and linked to numerous major highways; including highway 16, 49, 2, and 1. In
addition to excellent accessibility by road, Fort St. John is also connected by rail and air. With a
regional airport and three rail lines moving in multiple directions, Fort St. John can be accessed
all year round.
With the ongoing and proposed development in the area, Fort St. John has recently attracted
the attention one of Canada’s largest airline carriers; West Jet. Beginning in June 2013, WestJet
will commence the first daily flights in Canada with its new carrier Encore. West Jet believes
that the market for flights to Fort St. John is currently undersupplied and expects the demand
for flights to Fort St. John to grow significantly. 24
By offering multiple transportation
options, Fort St. John is well connected.
The following list showcases just some of
the major companies that travel to and
from Fort St. John:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Greyhound
Air Canada
Central Mountain Air
North Cariboo Air
West Jet – New Carrier
CN Rail – Cargo
VIA Rail – Passenger
Page | 8
Local Economies
When it comes to natural resources, the Peace
River Region has it all. The region contains:
•
•
•
38% of BC’s Hydroelectric Power
90% of BC’s Grain
Over 10,000 Oil Wells
The Peace River region has some of the largest oil
and gas fields in all of North America, with over
450 billion cubic meters of marketable gas
reserves already identified and an estimated 650
billion cubic meters yet to be discovered. Fort St.
John welcomes approximately 200 new businesses
to the city a year, almost one third of them oil and
gas related 25.
As BC’s energy capital, Fort St. John also boasts the highest disposable income out of any city in
BC, 16% above the provincial average 26.It is the oil and gas sector that really drives Fort St.
John’s economy. The city boasts hundreds of companies specializing in large and small
pipelines, trucking, seismic research, and well site construction, which provides key support to
the oil and gas industry. Fort St. John’s natural gas production already exceeds the provincial
demand and most of the oil and gas is being exported to markets across Canada and the United
States 27.
The city is pitted directly between two recently discovered tight gas fields in Northeastern BC.
Both the Montney Formation to the southeast of the city, and the Horn River Basin, to the
North of the City, offer exciting possibilities of population and economic growth for Fort St.
John. The interests of several Canadian and US oil and gas companies have already been
piqued, and the region is starting to see a huge profit from land investment in the Peace River
region 28.
One of the other sectors Fort St. John relies upon for a stable economy is agriculture. With over
16 million hectares of farmland, it’s easy to see why. The Peace River Region produces more
barley, wheat, and grass seed than any other area in BC. The North Peace Region in particular
supports approximately 1,700 farms which account for a revenue of approximately $77 million
a year 29.
The forestry sector also plays a large role in the economy of the city. In 2009, the city was
named the Forest Capital of British Columbia by the Association of BC Forest Professionals. Fort
St. John’s forestry industry employs over 700 people and contributes $98 million to the local
economy each year 30. The timber supply surrounding Fort St. John is in excess of 4.5 million
hectares, providing jobs for over 350 logging and trucking contractors 31.
Page | 9
Job Growth
Employment Environment in Fort St. John
Fort St. John is currently in the middle of
an economic boom caused by the
proposed and ongoing development of
Natural Gas infrastructure in the region.
The Natural Gas
Sector will support
roughly 53,000 jobs in
BC between 2012 and
2035
As of April 2013, the city of Fort St. John
reported an unemployment rate of
4.6%32; however, Fort St. John city council
member Trevor Bolin believes it to be
even lower. In a recent article dated April
2013, Trevor was quoted saying that
-Conference Board of Canada
when “…you look at Fort St. John it’s the
land of opportunity. The amount of jobs,
even the amount of help wanted ads and
signs that are up and around town right
now, I would have a hard time believing that we are even 4.6 [unemployment rate percentage].
I would say we’re lower than that.” 33 The unemployment rate in Fort St. John BC is below the
provincial average of 6.4% and well below the national average of 7.2%. 34 As the development
of Natural Gas infrastructure in the region continues, the unemployment rate is expected to
drop even lower as more long term jobs become available.
Expected Job Growth in Northeast BC
As investment increases in BC’s energy sector, both the Northeast and Northwest of BC expect
a significant increase in job demand. According to a Spring 2013 study by the Petroleum Human
Resource Council of Canada, Natural Gas Operations in Northeast BC could create between
19,400 and 34,540 ongoing new jobs (as seen in figures 6 and 7). In addition, between 4,330
and 6,424 short term construction jobs will be created between now and 2020. 35
In the graphs below, Figure 6 indicates the expected ongoing jobs created in Northern BC if 3
LNG facilities are constructed on BC’s coast; Figure 7, shows the same information if 5 LNG
facilities are constructed.
Page | 10
Figure 6 & 7
Figure 6. Natural Gas Operations Employment Outlook to 2020
Figure 7. Natural Gas Operations Employment Outlook to 2020
Page | 11
Population Growth
Job Growth = Migration = Population Growth
As of 2011, the population in Fort St. John was 18,699, an increase of 5.7% persons since 2006.
Fort St. John’s online visitors section reports that the population today is greater than 21,000.
37
The population is projected to continue to grow in support of the increasing number of jobs
available in the region.
36
Fort St. John Councilman Byron Stewart attributes
the population increase to the growth of the oil
and gas industry in the region. 38 As existing and
proposed projects continue to move forward,
workers from across BC and Canada continue to
be attracted to the region. As the labor force in
Northern BC is already working at maximum
capacity, workers must migrate from other regions
to satisfy the increased job demand.
Population of Peace Region
Current: 64,000
2020 Forecast: 123,450
-North Peace Economic
Development Commission
According to the Labor Demand Outlook for BC’s Natural Gas Industry, published by the
Petroleum Human Resources Council of Canada, Northeast BC will need to fill 20,000 and
40,000 new jobs between now and 2020. 39 The majority of these jobs are located in the Peace
Region which currently has a population of 64,000, nearly a quarter of which is Fort St. John. As
workers migrate to the region to meet the increase in job demand the population of the Peace
Region is expected to double, skyrocketing the population from the low 60,000’s to upwards of
123,000 people40.
Page | 12
Real Estate Market
Housing Trends
As Fort St. John continues its rapid expansion, the city will have to work hard to keep its
infrastructure (both residential and commercial) on par with demand. The main driver in Fort
St. John’s economy is the oil and gas sector, with many workers moving from across the country
to work in the region. As a result the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia recognizes
housing issues that the city faces:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Increasing in-migration of resource workers due to increased employment is causing an
increased demand in housing and places upward pressure on prices
Shifting local demographics means less housing turnover. Young people are not moving
out of FSJ after high school. Seniors are staying longer and not as many are moving away
Community needs more diversity of housing types and price points. Limited housing for
households earning $45,000 annually
Region dealing with serious labor shortages
Chronic shortage of rental housing; what was a seasonal problem has become a yearround issue.
Some reports of rent “gouging” the result of an undersupplied market
Land supply may become an issue as City is hemmed in by ALR land
With many workers moving to
the region, Fort St. John’s
housing supply has been slow to
keep up. In the late 80’s and
early 90’s, housing starts
averaged well under 100 units
per year. As seen in Figure 8,
Residential construction has
slowly increased in the past ten
years averaging 150 units per
year since 2000. As the economy
begins to improve, housing starts
Figure 8. Housing Starts in Fort St. John: 1992-2010
have been slow to catch up;
between 2010 and 2012 the average number of new dwellings is 157 residential units. 41
Wanted: Rental Properties
According to a publication by Statistics Canada, 80% of newcomers to a province will rent for
the first 2 years. 42 As the number of net new migrants to the region continues to increase, the
Page | 13
demand for housing will continue to outpace the supply, causing a decrease in vacancies, an
increase in rents, and an overall increase in property values.
According the latest Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) report, the vacancy
rate as of Fall 2012 in Fort St. John for multifamily properties is at 3.6%.43 A decrease of 2.3%
since Fall 2011. Rental rates in Fort St. John are steadily increasing up 6.9% year over year as of
Fall 2012.44
With a limited housing supply, growing population, and expanding job market, Fort St. John is
one of the fastest growing real estate markets in Canada.
Conclusion
Through our research and analysis, Fort St. John fits the WCPG model as a high growth real
estate market. With significant economic growth, job growth and population growth, as well as
a favorable political climate, we believe Northeast BC, specifically Fort St. John is the best
region in Canada to invest in real estate.
With over $60 billion of proposed infrastructure in the region, a labor supply that already is
experiencing a shortage of workers potentially causing a doubling of the population in the next
decade; Fort St. John is experiencing unprecedented growth comparable to what Fort
McMurray experienced between 1997 and 2007.
With over 20 years of experience and 85 projects completed, WCPG has the knowledge,
resources and team that will allow you to maximize the returns you make, with minimize the
hassles. With more than half a billion invested, we have created a system that makes it easy for
any investor to add investment real estate as a part of their portfolio.
Page | 14
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http://www.ceri.ca/images/stories/2012-03-12_-_Foreign_Investment_-_Oil_Sands_and_Shale.pdf
http://www.petrohrsc.ca/media/39665/2013-02-21_final_bc_natural_gas_labour_demand_to_2020_report.pdf
http://www.petrohrsc.ca/media/39665/2013-02-21_final_bc_natural_gas_labour_demand_to_2020_report.pdf
BC stats. (2011) British Columbia Housing Starts for Urban Areas and Communities