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International Maritime Statistics Forum Annual Conference Gdansk, Poland April 2008 Uses/Misuses of Marine Transportation Statistics Introduction (Types of Data) Elastic Expectations (Forecasting) Market by Inference (Forecasting) Supply/Demand Matching Hybrid Approach Types of Data Primary Data: Focused actionable data collected for a specific purpose, usually collected through focus groups, customer surveys/feedback surveys…... Secondary Data: Data that was originally collected for another purpose, usually collected on forms, such as vessel manifests, customs documents, Securities and Exchange filings, vessel registrations. Analytical Sins – Secondary Data (pro-investment bias) Elastic Expectations Up-turns will continue; down-turns are temporary! Market by Inference Project will succeed because things (GDP, Trade) are growing, but even if things aren’t growing, the project will steal market from others? Project is good no matter what happens! Supply/Demand Matching Trade (demand) is growing so we need more transportation assets (supply). Or, transportation assets are wearing out. In either case, more assets are required! Elastic Expectations/Market by Inference and Forecasting In the 1970’s, Data Resources Inc. provided analysts with tools for do-it-yourself forecasts. U.S. Domestic Trade = 453.455 + 0.119 x (real GDP) (16.865) (13.653) Interval: 1950-1975 R2 = 0.886 Elasticity (% change trade/% change trade) = 0.45 The Forecast Million Tons U.S. Domestic Trade, Actual and Forecast 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Domestic Trade, Actual Domestic Trade, Forecast The Result Billion Dollars 40 Water Transportation Vessel Assets, 1960-2006 30 20 10 0 1960 1970 1980 Year 1990 2000 Typical Forecasts Fang & Cone Million Tons U.S. Coastwise Trade, Actual and Fang-cast Million Tons 450 500 400 450 350 400 300 350 U.S. Coastwise Trade, Actual and Cone-cast 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Coastwise Trade, Actual Tooth Coastwise Trade, Forecast 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Domestic Trade, Actual Domestic Trade, Forecast Upper Limit Lower Limit Conclusion, Hybrid Approach Investment Decision Long Term Customer Commitments Primary Data Collection and Analysis Secondary Data Analysis Bottom Line Start with secondary data, finish with primary data. QUESTIONS? Contact Me Russell Byington Chief Economist Maritime Administration U.S. Department of Transportation 202 366 2278 [email protected] Web Site: www.marad.dot.gov/marad_statistics