Download Biodiversity Sector in Southern Africa

Adaptation of Biodiversity to
Climate Change in southern
Africa
CSIR, National Botanical Institute,
University of Pretoria & Kruger
National Park.
The ‘Biodiversity sector’
Biodiversity
Intrinsic value
Off-reserve
Protection
State
Private
Goods and
services
Tourism
Objectives of the
Southern Africa AIACC
Biodiversity study
Advance the state of the science
(entails publishing papers)
Explore adaptation options
Develop tools for wider use
Raise capacity and awareness
Study area
Three case studies
– Cape: data rich, diverse, mountains, patchy
– Karoo: data poor, geology
– ‘Kruger’: large mammals and birds
3 Case studies
2. North Eastern
Lowveld
1. Succulent Karoo
3. Cape Floral
Kingdom
Key Analyses:
Step 1
Work with stakeholders
to identify project plan
Key Analyses:
Step 1
Work Step
with stakeholders
2
to identify
project plan
Determine:
Current knowledge (literature search)
Past/present biodiversity management
Species distributions
Key Analyses:
Step 1
Work Step
with stakeholders
2
to identify
project plan
Determine:
Curent knowledge (literature search)
Step 3 management
Past/present biodiversity
Introduce climate
change
and land cover scenarios
Species
distributions
Determine species environmental envelopes
Model species responses (dynamic models)
Key Analyses:
Step 1
Work Step
with stakeholders
2
to identify
project plan
Determine:
Curent knowledge (literature search)
Step 3 management
Past/present biodiversity
Introduce climate
change
and land cover scenarios
Species
distributions
Determine species environmental envelopes
Model species responses
models)
Step (dynamic
4
Identify and analyse adaptation options (economic tools)
Key Analyses:
Step 1
Work Step
with stakeholders
2
to identify
project plan
Determine:
Curent knowledge (literature search)
Step 3 management
Past/present biodiversity
Introduce climate
change
and land cover scenarios
Species
distributions
Determine species environmental envelopes
Model species responses
models)
Step (dynamic
4
Identify and analyse adaptation options (economic tools)
Step 5
Case studies
Key Analyses:
Step 1
Work Step
with stakeholders
2
to identify
project plan
Determine:
Curent knowledge (literature search)
Step 3 management
Past/present biodiversity
Introduce climate
change
and land cover scenarios
Species
distributions
Determine species environmental envelopes
Model species responses
models)
Step (dynamic
4
Identify and analyse adaptation options (economic tools)
Step 5
Case studies
Step 6
Synthesis, recommendations and training
Current vulnerability
Identify threatened species by expert
opinion (Red Data species will be
included in the analysis)
Establish extent of occurrence of species
Overlay land use data to assess current
vulnerability
Current vulnerability (continued)
Define coping ranges and threshold limits
using various climatic and socioeconomic variables (using basic statistical
techniques, e.g. probability analysis)
Explicit identification of uncertainties
Define current biodiversity management
practices and policies
Individuals to target (to factor
climate change in) e.g:
Nature Reserve Network
(individuals concerned with the
conservation of natural resources)
Government Departments (e.g.
DWAF, DEAT, NDA, DACST)
Universities
Private sector &
Local people.
Future vulnerability
Projecting future climate scenarios (From
Hewitson group)
Model future extent of occurrence of
species (statistical techniques)
Use Multi-Agent Systems to assess species
ability to relocate under future climate
predictions. Includes Bayesian networks
Future vulnerability (continued)
Explicit identification of uncertainties…
–
–
–
–
Future climate scenarios
Predictions of species
Habitat distribution
Species ability to adapt (genetic and
behavioural adaptive capacity)
Future vulnerability (continued)
Define coping ranges, threshold limits, and
vulnerability using various future climatic
and socio-economic variables (using basic
statistical techniques)
Identify those species and habitats which
are sensitive and non-sensitive to change.
Recommend adaptive biodiversity
management practices and policies
Defining Adaptation Options:
Impacts of climate change and reversibility
Strategic planning
Identify adaptation options that are site-
specific and vary for different scales.
Focus on adaptation options which
increase coping range of spp & habitats
Adaptation options
(costs and benefits)
not mutually exclusive
Do nothing
Encourage biodiversity-friendly land use
between protected areas
Facilitated dispersal
Protected area realignment
Ex-situ conservation
Adaptation options (continued)
Use Cost-Benefit Analysis and Multi-
Criteria Analysis to examine adaptation
options
How many species does each option
protect?
How robust are the options to different
climate and socio-economic conditions?
Plan of papers to be published:
Climate change impacts on biodiversity in
southern Africa.
Adaptation options to climate change in the
biodiversity sector in three different
southern African environments
Total Economic Value of biodiversity
goods and services in specific case study
areas.
Integrative and comparative conclusions
Questions