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Adaptation of Biodiversity to Climate Change in southern Africa CSIR, National Botanical Institute, University of Pretoria & Kruger National Park. The ‘Biodiversity sector’ Biodiversity Intrinsic value Off-reserve Protection State Private Goods and services Tourism Objectives of the Southern Africa AIACC Biodiversity study Advance the state of the science (entails publishing papers) Explore adaptation options Develop tools for wider use Raise capacity and awareness Study area Three case studies – Cape: data rich, diverse, mountains, patchy – Karoo: data poor, geology – ‘Kruger’: large mammals and birds 3 Case studies 2. North Eastern Lowveld 1. Succulent Karoo 3. Cape Floral Kingdom Key Analyses: Step 1 Work with stakeholders to identify project plan Key Analyses: Step 1 Work Step with stakeholders 2 to identify project plan Determine: Current knowledge (literature search) Past/present biodiversity management Species distributions Key Analyses: Step 1 Work Step with stakeholders 2 to identify project plan Determine: Curent knowledge (literature search) Step 3 management Past/present biodiversity Introduce climate change and land cover scenarios Species distributions Determine species environmental envelopes Model species responses (dynamic models) Key Analyses: Step 1 Work Step with stakeholders 2 to identify project plan Determine: Curent knowledge (literature search) Step 3 management Past/present biodiversity Introduce climate change and land cover scenarios Species distributions Determine species environmental envelopes Model species responses models) Step (dynamic 4 Identify and analyse adaptation options (economic tools) Key Analyses: Step 1 Work Step with stakeholders 2 to identify project plan Determine: Curent knowledge (literature search) Step 3 management Past/present biodiversity Introduce climate change and land cover scenarios Species distributions Determine species environmental envelopes Model species responses models) Step (dynamic 4 Identify and analyse adaptation options (economic tools) Step 5 Case studies Key Analyses: Step 1 Work Step with stakeholders 2 to identify project plan Determine: Curent knowledge (literature search) Step 3 management Past/present biodiversity Introduce climate change and land cover scenarios Species distributions Determine species environmental envelopes Model species responses models) Step (dynamic 4 Identify and analyse adaptation options (economic tools) Step 5 Case studies Step 6 Synthesis, recommendations and training Current vulnerability Identify threatened species by expert opinion (Red Data species will be included in the analysis) Establish extent of occurrence of species Overlay land use data to assess current vulnerability Current vulnerability (continued) Define coping ranges and threshold limits using various climatic and socioeconomic variables (using basic statistical techniques, e.g. probability analysis) Explicit identification of uncertainties Define current biodiversity management practices and policies Individuals to target (to factor climate change in) e.g: Nature Reserve Network (individuals concerned with the conservation of natural resources) Government Departments (e.g. DWAF, DEAT, NDA, DACST) Universities Private sector & Local people. Future vulnerability Projecting future climate scenarios (From Hewitson group) Model future extent of occurrence of species (statistical techniques) Use Multi-Agent Systems to assess species ability to relocate under future climate predictions. Includes Bayesian networks Future vulnerability (continued) Explicit identification of uncertainties… – – – – Future climate scenarios Predictions of species Habitat distribution Species ability to adapt (genetic and behavioural adaptive capacity) Future vulnerability (continued) Define coping ranges, threshold limits, and vulnerability using various future climatic and socio-economic variables (using basic statistical techniques) Identify those species and habitats which are sensitive and non-sensitive to change. Recommend adaptive biodiversity management practices and policies Defining Adaptation Options: Impacts of climate change and reversibility Strategic planning Identify adaptation options that are site- specific and vary for different scales. Focus on adaptation options which increase coping range of spp & habitats Adaptation options (costs and benefits) not mutually exclusive Do nothing Encourage biodiversity-friendly land use between protected areas Facilitated dispersal Protected area realignment Ex-situ conservation Adaptation options (continued) Use Cost-Benefit Analysis and Multi- Criteria Analysis to examine adaptation options How many species does each option protect? How robust are the options to different climate and socio-economic conditions? Plan of papers to be published: Climate change impacts on biodiversity in southern Africa. Adaptation options to climate change in the biodiversity sector in three different southern African environments Total Economic Value of biodiversity goods and services in specific case study areas. Integrative and comparative conclusions Questions