Download The Economic Value of Biodiversity

The Economic Value of Biodiversity
Dr. Leon C. Braat
BfN-Vilm, September 22 , 2008: Biodiversity & Poverty Reduction
Based on: Report to the European Commission, May 29, 2008
The Cost of Policy Inaction (C O P I )
The case of not meeting the 2010 biodiversity target
L. Braat & P. ten Brink (eds.)
with
J. Bakkes, K. Bolt, I. Braeuer, B. ten Brink, A. Chiabai, H. Ding, H. Gerdes, M. Jeuken, M. Kettunen, U.
Kirchholtes, C. Klok, A. Markandya, P. Nunes, M. van Oorschot, N. Peralta-Bezerra, M. Rayment, C.
Travisi, M. Walpole.
Wageningen / Brussels, May 2008
“Potsdam Initiative – Biological Diversity 2010”
The economic significance of the global loss of biological diversity
TEEB
The
Economics of
Ecosystems and
Biodiversity
COPI
=
part of TEEB
COPI: CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
OECD
Baseline
scenario
International
Policies
Change
in
Land use,
Climate,
Pollution,
Water use
Change
in
Biodiversity
Change
in
Ecosystem
functions
Change
In
Ecosystem
Services
Change in
Economic
Value
1.
The OECD Baseline scenario and international policies
9.1 billion inhabitants by 2050
GDP global average: 2.8% per year
2.
The Global Loss of Biodiversity
2.
The Global Loss of Biodiversity
73%
62%
Medium – high productivity
Low productivity
The total biodiversity loss 2000-2050:
All biodiversity of 1,300 million ha converted to asphalt.
(about 1.5 times the United States)
The Global Loss of
Biodiversity
2000
The Global Loss of
Biodiversity
2030
The Global Loss of
Biodiversity
2050
2.
The Global Loss of Biodiversity: deforestation in Brasil
GLOBIO MODEL OUTPUT OVERLAY ON GOOGLE EARTH
2. The Global Loss of Biodiversity : temperate and tropical forests
2. The Global Loss of Biodiversity : temperate and tropical forests
CAUSES OF FOREST BIODIVERSITY LOSS
2.
The Global Loss of Biodiversity : the marine ecosystem
THE COLLAPSE OF GLOBAL FISHERIES
20 %
40 %
40 %
40 %
40 %
20 %
2010
Source: Sea Around Us project
2.
The Global Loss of Biodiversity : the marine ecosystem
2.
The Global Loss of Biodiversity : the marine ecosystem
We are fishing down the foodweb – D. Pauly (UBC, Canada)
CBD indicator:
Marine Trophic Index
2.
The Global Loss of Biodiversity: policy targets
CBD global 2010 target: significantly reducing the rate of biodiversity loss
European Union 2010 target: halting the loss of biodiversity
The Targets will
not be met,
not by 2010,
And in a no-new policy
Scenario:
not by 2050
Biodiversity
2000
2050
COPI: CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
OECD
Baseline
scenario
International
Policies
Change
in
Land use,
Climate,
Pollution,
Water use
Change
in
Biodiversity
Change
in
Ecosystem
functions
Change
In
Ecosystem
Services
Change in
Economic
Value
3.
Changes in Ecosystem Services due to loss of Biodiversity
private,
market
public,
government
2000
mixed
2050
2000
2050
3.
Changes in Ecosystem Services due to loss of Biodiversity
Pristine
forest
REGULATING
SERVICES
Extensive use
Original
species
Extensive use
PUBLIC
Plantation
Degraded
land
PROVISIONING
SERVICES
PRIVATE
Subsistence
agriculture
Fossil fuel
subsidized
Enhancement / investment
Use
Trade offs
Land-uses and trade offs for ecosystem services
1natural
2 extensive
Climate
regulation
Food
Soil
protection
Energy
Climate
regulation
Food
Energy
Soil
protection
Freshwater
Freshwater
Climate
regulation
Food
Energy
-
Soil
protection
Freshwater
3 intensive
Source: Ben ten Brink (MNP) presentation at the Workshop: The Economics of the Global Loss of Biological Diversity 5-6 March 2008, Brussels, Belgium.
Net Energy &
Energy Return
On Investments
B
B1
B2
B3
C
Energy input
Energy Supply
Process
Energy embodied in all feedbacks necessary to
discover, extract or capture, process and deliver
the energy flow C from its source,
plus any external costs of the process (i.e. damage
to ecosystem services)
A
Gross energy
delivered to
point of use
With A, B, and C all converted to energy of the same quality:
Energy Return on Investment (EROI) = A/B
Net Energy = A - B
Energy Capture Efficiency = A/(B+C)
Energy Payback Time = time for flow of A to equal lump sum of B
FInite Global Ecosystem
Solar
Energy
Energy
"Empty
World"
Growing Energy
Economic
Subsystem
Source
Functions
Resources
Resources
Recycled
Matter
Waste Heat
Sink
Functions
FInite Global Ecosystem
Solar
Energy
Energy
"Full
World"
Energy
Growing
Economic
Subsystem
Source
Functions
Resources
Sink
Functions
Resources
Recycled
Matter
Waste Heat
COPI: CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
OECD
Baseline
scenario
International
Policies
Change
in
Land use,
Climate,
Pollution,
Water use
Change
in
Biodiversity
Change
in
Ecosystem
functions
Change
In
Ecosystem
Services
Change in
Economic
Value
4.
Changes in Economic value due to loss of Biodiversity
GDP 2.8%/year
GDP, with feedback to
economy from biodiversity
losses integrated - illustrative
GDP: 41.4$ trillion (PPP) (10^12)
Population:
9100 million
GDP/capita: 680$ (PPP)
Population: 6092 million
GDP adjusted for impact of
biodiversity loss - illustrative
Services that would have been
there, had biodiversity loss been
halted
Ecosystem
service level
Remaining ecosystem services
2000
Source: Patrick ten Brink (IEEP), Leon Braat (Alterra), Mark van Ooorshot (MNP), Matt Rayment (GHK)
2050
4.
THE
Changes inMONETARY
Economic valueCOST
due to loss
Biodiversity
GLOBAL
OF of
POLICY
INACTION
Area
Natural areas
Relative to
2000
Relative to
2000
Billion
EUR
Equivalent to
% of GDP in
2050
-155678
-7.97%
1852
0.95%
Extensive
Agriculture
-1109
-0.57%
Intensive
Agriculture
1303
0.67%
381
0.19%
-786
-0.40%
-13938
-7.1%
Forest managed
Woody biofuels
Cultivated grazing
World Total
Annual loss
in 2050
Land based ecosystems only
The loss grows with each year of biodiversity and ecosystem loss.
And it was
Such a beautiful planet ……