Download Exercise I- How might future society be_RU

„Baltic Challenges and Chances for local
development generated by Climate Change“
and
Target Area Assessment
Pskov State Polytechnic Institute
Vulnerability Assessments Phase
1. Exercise 1 – How might future society be?
regional
1. Exercise 1 – How might future society be?
During the workshop in the Bezhanitskiy Rayon it was decided that the world would
develop in the future according to the A2 storyline that is regional emphasis and economic
emphasis. Thus, possible directions of global change might be: climate change forcing people
to move to ecologically safe regions, population concentration in developed regions offering
workplaces, new technologies, services, etc., new ecologically clean technologies use in
housing, transport, agriculture and other spheres. The major drivers of changes might be:
energy consumption increase, humans’ health decline because of urbanization and insufficient
ecology, increase of population, orientation on comfortable living conditions. This will lead to
some inequality in the world when the most comfortable regions (from the view of ecological
situation, services, workplaces, etc.) will be highly populated, and less comfortable regions will
be empty and undeveloped. The reasons of that tendency are both economical and
environmental as in modern society these two things are tightened together, influencing on all
spheres of life. The effects of this tendency will reveal in power concentration on regional level,
when population will be concentrated in different regions competing with each other; and also in
climate policy evolving on regional, national and global levels as to gain a synergetic effect this
policy must be implemented in common with all regions and nations.
Regional emphasis (2) 
A1 storyline
A2 storyline
World: market-oriented
World: differentiated
Economy: fastest per capita growth
Economy: regionally oriented; lowest
Population: 2050 peak, then decline per capita growth
Technology: three scenario groups: Population: continuously increasing
Fossil-intensive, non-fossil energy Technology: slowest and most
sources, balanced across sectors
fragmented development.
B1 storyline
B2 storyline
World: convergent
World: local solutions
Economy: service and informationEconomy: intermediate growth
based; lower growth than A1
Population: continuously increasing
Population: 2050 peak, then decline at lower rate than A2
(same as A1)
Technology: more rapid than A2, less
Technology: clean and resource- rapid but more diverse than A1 and
efficient
B1
 Global emphasis (1)
Environmental emphasis (B) 
Economic emphasis (A) 
As for the Bezhanitskiy Rayon the following changes are supposed to arise by 2050
according to the chosen storyline.
Economic Changes in the Rayon (by 2050)
Now the most relevant economic problem in the Bezhanitskiy Rayon is low level of
economic development because of economic geographical location in between of main centers
of the Pskov Region (Pskov and Velikiye Luki) and between two agglomerations of Russia
(Moscow and Saint-Petersburg), and because of low level of the Rayon’s economic chances
implementation (agricultural center, ecological tourism center, forest industries center, etc.).
By 2050 it is supposed to develop key sectors of the Bezhanitskiy Rayon economy which
are seen as the main chances of its development.
The main emphasis might be on agricultural sector development with meat and milk
specialization. Along with basic specializations new supporting agricultural specializations might
be developed such as packing and feed-stuff production. To develop agricultural sector it is
necessary to improve transport, housing, services infrastructure, etc.
Another way of the Bezhanitskiy Rayon economy development is ecological tourism
promotion. It is possible to use Polistovskyi Reservation as a center of ecological tourism where
tourists can see rare birds and plants. But it is necessary to develop tourism infrastructure:
roads, ecological paths, hotels, cafes, etc.
As well the Bezhanitskiy Rayon may become a centre of forest industries. Promoting
wooden houses and renewable fuels it is possible to increase attractiveness of wood materials
and competitiveness of this sector not only on external but also on internal markets. The other
advantage of forest industries development is closeness to EU countries borders which is seen
as a competitive advantage.
Because of the tendency of energy efficiency increase and local fuels use Bezhanitskiy
Rayon may become a centre of peat production (it has great peat reserves in Polistovskyi
reservation).
Technology changes in the Rayon (by 2050)
Nowadays the main technological problems of the Bezhanitskiy Rayon are: degradation
of infrastructure in all economic sectors (transport, housing, energy, agriculture, etc.), low level
of investments in technological innovations.
As new economic sectors are supposed to be developed in the Bezhanitskiy Rayon,
some investments on technological innovations and infrastructure modernization are expected.
The main changes are supposed to be in housing power supply and energy consumption. It is
expected to transfer them on local fuels use which will lead to modernization of boiler houses,
utility facilities modernization, etc. Also climate change tendencies determine the necessity of
building technologies change and adaptation to new climatic conditions both in housing and in
industries.
New technologies development and implementation will be supported by the creation of
Pskov State University where new specialties in technologies will be introduced.
Demographic changes in the Rayon (by 2050)
Now the main demographic problems of the Bezhanitskiy Rayon are: depopulation and
aging, as well as low quality of life of the population. By 2050 the population of the Rayon might
increase a little bit as in the frame of agricultural sector development agri towns are expected to
be built and rural way of life will be promoted. The more developed the Rayon will be, the more
population will stay to live there. But it is supposed that the main part of the population will be
retirees who move to the countryside after completing their carriers.
Social changes in the Rayon (by 2050)
The main social problems occurring nowadays in the Bezhanitskiy Rayon are low quality
of life, low incomes, low level of social services in the Rayon, etc.
As “agritowns” will be constructed in the Rayon to support agricultural sector
development social infrastructure will be developed as well (kindergartens, schools, hospitals,
etc.). National programs for socioeconomic development will promote healthy way of life,
support sport infrastructure development, invest in medicine, education sectors, etc.
So, by 2050 it is expected that the level of social services will increase.