Download Technology Applicability

Technology Applicability for
Prediction & Recognition of
Piracy Efforts
NATO ASI
September 2011
Salamanca, Spain
Approach
• Decompose the process of predicting and
characterizing piracy attacks (the mission) into a set
of technical issues (i.e. needed capabilities which
technology might help provide)
• For each such issue, list potential technical solutions
in terms of their maturity and potential effectiveness
in resolving the issue
Definitions and Metrics (1 of 2)
• Mission Capability: the ability to predict and recognize piracy
efforts sufficiently to support effective responses
• Issue: A technical problem relevant to achieving the mission
capability
• Criticality: the degree to which achieving the mission capability
depends on resolving the given issue: i.e. finding a solution to
the given problem:
Most
Least
• Analogous Applications: other mission capabilities that
involve related technical issues
Definitions and Metrics (2 of 2)
• Applicable Techniques: technologies or designs that might be
used to solve the given issue
• Effectiveness: the degree to which the given technique could
provide a solution to the given problem:
Least
Most
• Maturity: the technology readiness level (TRL) of the given
technique (defined in the next chart):
TRL 0-1
TRL 2-3
TRL 4-5
TRL 6-7
TRL 8-9
• Recommendations: Suggested actions for NATO or NATO
members to solve the given issues
Technology Readiness Levels
TRL 1
Basic principles observed & reported
TRL 2
Technology concept & application formulated
TRL 3
Proof of concept
TRL 4
Component validated in lab environment
TRL 5
Component validated in relevant environment
TRL 6
Prototype demonstration in relevant environment
TRL 7
Prototype demonstration in operations environment
TRL 8
System completed and qualified through test & demonstration
TRL 9
System proven through successful mission operations
Technology Applicability to Counter Piracy:
Lower-Level Knowledge Development (1 of 2)
Applicable
Techniques
•
•
•
•
Cooperative (e.g. AIS)
Patrol Aircraft\
Long Endurance UAV
Space Imagery
Data Dissemination
Data Alignment
• Multi-INT registration
• Poisson Point registr.
• Evidence conditioning
Uncertainty
Representation
• Bayesian
• Evidential
• Semantic
Data Association
• MHT
• (J)PDA
• PHD
Maturity
Analogous
Applications
Effective
ness
Wide Area Sensor
Coverage
Criticality
Issue
Recommen
dations
Technology Applicability to Counter Piracy:
Lower-Level Knowledge Development (2 of 2)
Applicable
Techniques
Target Detection
• Model-Based
• Anomaly-Based
Target Location/
Tracking
• KF, EKF, IMM
• Particle Filter
• PDF
Target Type
Classification
•
•
•
•
Target Attributes
• Syntactic
• Explanation-Based
Target Activity
• Case-Based
• Correlation-Based
Statistical Pattern Rec
Syntactic
Neural Net
Explanation-Based
Maturity
Analogous
Applications
Effective
ness
Criticality
Issue
Recommen
dations
Technology Applicability to Counter Piracy:
Higher-Level Knowledge Development (1 of 2)
Numeric/Symbolic
Data Fusion
Complexity
Management
Situation
Representation
Ontology
Management
Situation Model
Management
Applicable
Techniques
Maturity
Semantic Extraction
Analogous
Applications
Effective
ness
Data Mining
Criticality
Issue
Recommen
dations
Technology Applicability to Counter Piracy:
Higher-Level Knowledge Development (2 of 2)
Situation
Characterization
Situation Tracking
Scenario
Recognition
Threat Event
Prediction
Indications and
Warning
Applicable
Techniques
Maturity
Network
Characterization
Analogous
Applications
Effective
ness
Relationship
Characterization
Criticality
Issue
Recommen
dations
Technology Applicability to Counter Piracy:
Decision Support
Uncertainty
Presentation
Conditional/Counterfactual Presentation
Data Entry
Hard/ Soft Data
Fusion
Operator Control
Collaboration Tools
Applicable
Techniques
Maturity
Presentation of
Situation Dynamics
Analogous
Applications
Effective
ness
Situation
Presentation
Criticality
Issue
Recommen
dations
Threat Assessment Functions
•
Threat Event Prediction: Determining likely threat events (“threatened events” or
“attacks”): who, what, where, when, why, how
•
Indications and Warning: Recognition that an attack is imminent or under way
•
Threat Entity Detection and Characterization: determining the identities,
attributes, composition, location/track, activity capability, intent of agents and
other entities involved in a threatened or current attack
•
Attack (or Threat Event) Assessment:
– Responsible parties (country, organization, individuals, etc.) and attack roles;
– Intended target(s) of attack;
– Intended effect (e.g. physical, political, economic, psychological effects);
– Threat capability (e.g. weapon and delivery system characteristics);
– Force composition, coordination and tactics (goal and plan decomposition);
•
Consequence Assessment: Estimation & prediction of event outcome states
(threatened situations) and cost/utility to the responsible parties, to affected
parties or to system user. Can include both intended & unintended consequences