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Charts for Inflation Report 1/2002 Chart 1.1 GDP growth in the US, the euro area and Japan. Percentage change from previous quarter (annual rate) 6 US Euro area Japan 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 -6 sep.00 des.00 mar.01 jun.01 sep.01 des.01 Source: EcoWin Chart 1.2 Equity prices and long-term interest rates in the US and prices for industrials (USD). Index, Week 1 in 2001 = 100 110 110 Prices for industrials 100 100 Long rates 90 90 Wilshire 5000 80 80 70 Jan-01 70 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Sources: Norges Bank, EcoWin, The Economist and Wilshire Associates Chart 1.3 Oil price, Brent Blend. USD per barrel 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 1999 0 2000 2001 2002 Sources: International Petroleum Exchange and Norges Bank Chart 1.4 Effective NOK exchange rates. Importweighted exchange rate and trade-weighted exchange rate 115 110 115 Trade-weighted exchange rate (1990=100) 110 105 105 100 100 95 Import-weighted exchange rate (Week 1 1995=100) 95 90 90 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Source: Norges Bank Chart 1.5 Traditional merchandise exports. Volume and price. Percentage rise on same quarter previous year 30 Volume Price 20 30 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 1999 2000 Source: Statistics Norway 2001 Chart 1.6 Consumer confidence indicator (level). Estimated trend. 40 Combined confidence indicator 25 10 25 Confidence in own financial situation -5 -20 40 10 -5 Confidence in country's economy -35 -20 -35 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 Sources: Norsk Gallup Institutt AS and Norges Bank Chart 1.7 Goods consumption index. 1995 = 100. Seasonally adjusted volume 122 122 2001 120 118 116 120 118 116 2000 114 114 112 1999 112 110 110 108 108 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Statistics Norway Chart 1.8 The credit indicator (C2), credit to households and total credit to the non-financial private sector and municipalities, mainland Norway (C3). 12-month rise. Per cent 15 15 C3 mainland Norway 10 10 C2 5 0 1997 Credit to households 5 0 1998 Source: Norges Bank 1999 2000 2001 Chart 1.9 Number unemployed (LFS), number of registered unemployed and persons in labour market programmes. In thousands. Seasonally adjusted1) 125 125 Registered unemployed and labour market programmes 100 LFS unemployment 75 75 Registered unemployed 50 25 50 25 0 1997 1) LFS 100 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 unemployment: 3-month moving average Sources: Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour Chart 1.10 Change in unemployment on same month previous year. In thousands of persons 9 9 Whole country 7 5 7 5 Western Norway 3 Southern Norway 1 -1 -3 3 1 -1 Central and northern Norway Eastern Norway -5 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Source: Directorate of Labour -3 Jul-01 -5 Jan-02 Chart 1.11 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). Total1) and distributed by imported and domestically produced goods and services2). 12-month rise. Per cent 5 5 Goods and services produced in Norway 3 3 CPI-ATE 1 1 -1 -3 1999 Imported consumer goods -3 2000 2001 1) Norges 2002 Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter figures published by Statistics Norway Norges Bank's estimates Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 2) -1 Chart 1.12 Consumer prices by delivery sector. 12-month rise. Per cent 14 12 10 14 Services with wages as a dominant price factor Transport services 12 10 8 8 6 6 House rent 4 2 0 1999 4 2 CPI 0 2000 Source: Statistics Norway 2001 2002 Chart 1.13 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes. Cars, clothing and footwear and imported consumer goods. 12-month rise. Per cent 6 4 6 Imported consumer goods Cars 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 -8 1999 -6 Clothing and footwear -8 2000 2001 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 2002 Chart 1.14 Consumer prices (CPI). Total and adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. 12-month rise. Per cent CPI 4 4 CPI-AT1) 3 3 CPI-ATE1) 2 2 1 1 0 1999 0 2000 2001 2002 CPI-AT: CPI adjusted for tax changes CPI-ATE: CPI adj. for tax changes and ex energy products 1) Norges Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter figures published by Statistics Norway Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 1.15 Consumer prices. Energy-related products1). 12-month rise. Per cent 40 25 40 Electricity 25 Fuel and lubricants 10 10 -5 -5 -20 1999 -20 2000 2001 2002 Electricity accounts for 3.3% of the total CPI. Fuel and lubricants account for 4.2% of the total CPI 1) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 2.1 Quarterly change in US GDP, annualised. Contribution to growth in volume. Seasonally adjusted. Per cent 10 8 Private consumption Private investment Gov’t consumption and investment 6 Net export Inventories GDP 10 8 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 2000 -6 2001 2002 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Norges Bank Chart 2.2 Private saving and household net wealth in the US as a percentage of disposable income 14 12 10 700 Net wealth (right-hand scale) 600 500 8 400 6 300 4 2 Saving ratio (left-hand scale) 0 200 100 0 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 Sources: Datastream, EcoWin, the Federal Reserve and Bureau of Economic Analysis Chart 2.3 Consumer confidence indicators in the US and the euro area 155 140 5 US (left-hand scale) 0 125 110 -5 -10 Euro area (right-hand scale) 95 -15 80 1997 -20 1998 1999 2000 2001 Sources: EcoWin, the European Commission and The Conference Board 2002 Chart 2.4 Business sentiment indicators in the US and the euro area 60 20 Euro area (right-hand scale) 55 10 50 0 45 -10 40 35 1997 -20 US (left-hand scale) -30 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Sources: EcoWin, ISM and the European Commission Chart 2.5 Industrial output. Seasonally adjusted indices, January 1997=0 130 130 120 Euro area 110 US 120 110 Sweden 100 100 Norway 90 1997 90 1998 1999 2000 Sources: EcoWin and Statistics Norway 2001 2002 Chart 2.6 Unfilled orders in the technology industry. Value indices, 1995=100 150 150 Mechanical 125 125 100 100 75 75 50 1997 Electronic and optical Metals 50 1998 1999 Source: Statistics Norway 2000 2001 2002 Chart 2.7 Gross investment in petroleum activities. In billions of NOK. Constant 1997 prices 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 2.8 Structural non-oil budget balance1) 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 1) The budget balance is the change on the previous year, expressed as a percentage of trend mainland GDP. Sources: National Budget and Supplementary Proposition 2002, Ministry of Finance Chart 2.9 Household saving and net financial wealth. Percentage of disposable income 8 6 80 Saving ratio (left-hand scale) 60 4 2 40 Wealth ratio (right-hand scale) 20 0 0 -2 -20 -4 -40 -6 -60 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 2.10 Household loan debt as a percentage of disposable income and household interest expense after tax as a percentage of cash income 170 12 Interest burden (right-hand scale) 150 130 110 9 6 Loan debt (left-hand scale) 90 3 0 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 Source: Norges Bank Chart 2.11 Developments in some indices on the Oslo Stock Exchange. Daily figures, 01.01.0021.02.02. Indices, 3 January 2000 = 100 150 150 125 Financial 125 100 100 75 75 Manufacturing 50 IT All-share index 25 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 Source: EcoWin 50 25 Chart 2.12 Manufacturing employment, 1970-2001. In 1000s of people employed. 400 400 350 350 300 300 250 250 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Source: Statistics Norway Chart 2.13 Relative labour costs in Norwegian manufacturing compared with trading partners. Index, 1990=100 110 105 110 Local currency 105 100 100 95 95 90 Common currency 90 85 85 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Sources: Statistics Norway, the Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements and Norges Bank Chart 2.14 Change in number employed from previous year (in thousands) and LFS unemployment rate 8 80 6 40 4 0 2 -40 Unemployment rate (left-hand scale) Employed (right-hand scale) 0 -80 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 2.15 Change in labour force from previous year, and labour force as a percentage of population aged 16-74 (labour force participation rate) 74 Labour force participation (per cent, left-hand scale) 80 40 72 70 0 68 66 Change in LFS labour force (thousands, right-hand scale) 64 -40 -80 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 3.1 Rise in labour costs1) and unemployment rate. Per cent 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 Rise in labour costs 0 1990 Registered unemployment and persons on labour market programmes 2 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Hourly labour costs in mainland Norway including the costs of additional vacation days. For 2001 we have excluded extraordinary pension payments to KLP (the municipal sector pension fund) in local government 1) Sources: Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour Chart 3.2 Profitability in manufacturing. Wage share1) and return on total assets2) 10 78 Return on total assets (left-hand scale) 9 76 8 74 7 72 Wage share (right-hand scale) 6 70 5 68 4 1990 66 1) 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Labour costs as a percentage of value added Result for the year + net interest and financial costs as a share of total assets. Excluding oil companies 2) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 3.3 Producer and consumer prices for Norway's trading partners. 12-month rise. Per cent 5 5 Producer prices 3 3 Consumer prices 1 1 -1 -1 -3 1999 -3 2000 2001 Sources: EcoWin, Datastream, the OECD and Norges Bank 2002 Chart 3.4 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). Total and distributed by imported and domestically produced goods and services. 12-month rise. Per cent 4 Goods and services produced in Norway 4 CPI-ATE 2 2 Imported consumer goods 0 0 -2 -2 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 3.5 Consumer prices (CPI). Total and adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPIATE). 12-month rise. Per cent 5 4 5 CPI 3 2 4 3 CPI-ATE 1 2 1 0 0 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 3.6 Expectations concerning short-term money market rates1). Per cent 8 Forward rates 21 February 6 Forward rates 25 October 8 6 4 4 2 2 0 1999 0 2000 2001 1) 3-month 2002 2003 2004 money market rates up to 21 February. Three-month forward rates are estimated using four money market rates and five government bond yields with different maturities as observed on 21 February. Source: Norges Bank Chart 3.7 Forward rate differential against Germany. Percentage points 4 4 3 3 2 2 21 February 1 1 25 October 0 0 01 02 03 04 Source: Norges Bank 05 06 07 08 09 Chart 3.8 Household saving as a percentage of disposable income and the current account balance1) as a percentage of GDP in the US 12 12 9 9 Household saving ratio 6 3 6 3 Current account 0 0 -3 -3 -6 -6 1990 1) OECD 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 estimates for 2001 Sources: OECD and Bureau of Economic Analysis Chart 3.9 Oil price, Brent Blend. USD per barrel 40 40 30 30 IR 1/2002 20 20 Futures prices 20 February 10 10 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 0 2004 Sources: International Petroleum Exchange and Norges Bank Chart 3.10 Consumer price inflation1). Projection and uncertainty. 12-month rise. Per cent 4 4 3 3 2.5 2.5 2 2 30% 50% 70% 90% 1 1 0 Jan-01 0 Jul-01 1) Adjusted Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). The bands in the fan indicate different probabilities for consumer price inflation. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 3.11 Evaluation of the risks to the inflation projection for the first quarter of 2004 Probability density 2½ 0.0 50% 1.0 Source: Norges Bank 50% 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 To annex: 12 12 10 10 Overnight rate 8 8 6 4 2 Assumption Deposit rate 4 3-month money market rate 0 1995 6 2 0 1996 1997 Source: Norges Bank 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 115 115 Trade-weighted exchange rate (1990=100) 110 110 105 IR 1/02: 101.8 105 100 100 95 IR 1/02: 94.4 Import-weighted exchange rate (Week 1 1995=100) 90 1995 95 90 1996 1997 Source: Norges Bank 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 The credit indicator (C2), credit to households and total credit to the non-financial private sector and municipalities, mainland Norway (C3). 12-month rise. Per cent 15 15 C3 mainland Norway 10 10 C2 5 5 Credit to households 0 1997 0 1998 Source: Norges Bank 1999 2000 2001 2002 Consumer prices (CPI and CPI-ATE). 12-month rise. Per cent 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.0 CPI 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 CPI-ATE 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 Jul-00 0.0 Oct-00 Source: Norges Bank Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 3-month rates in the US, the euro area and Japan 7 7 6 6 US 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 Euro area Japan 2 1 1 0 1995 0 1996 1997 1998 Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank 1999 2000 2001 2002 Box: Evaluation of Norges Bank's projections for 2000 Chart 1 Projections for some key variables for 2000 published at various times. Annual increase. Per cent 6 6 Projection for 2000 published in 1998 Projection for 2000 publ. in 1999 Actual figure 2000 5 4 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 Mainland demand Mainland Unemploy- Wage GDP ment1) growth2) 1) Level 2) Including the costs of additional vacation days Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Price inflation -1 Chart 2 Estimates for some key variables for 2000 published in December 1999 by various institutions. Annual increase. Per cent 4 3 Consensus FIN Actual figure 2000 Statistics Norway Norges Bank 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 Mainland GDP Consumer price inflation Sources: Consensus Economics Inc., Statistics Norway (SN), Ministry of Finance (FIN) and Norges Bank Box: Wage growth Labour costs per person-hour, mainland Norway. Actual1) and estimated. Percentage change from previous year. 14 14 12 12 10 10 Actual wage growth 8 8 6 6 4 4 Estimated wage growth 2 0 2 0 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 1) For 2001 we have excluded extraordinary pension payments to KLP (municipal pension fund) in local government Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Box: Have Norges Bank’s interest rate decisions been anticipated? Change in money market rates following Norges Bank's monetary policy meetings. 1 July 1999 - 25 January 2002. Percentage points 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0 0 Change in deposit rate Change in 3-month interest rate Change in 1-month interest rate -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan99 99 99 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 01 01 01 01 02 Source: Norges Bank