Download Chart 1 - Norges Bank

Charts for Inflation Report 1/2002
Chart 1.1 GDP growth in the US, the euro area and
Japan. Percentage change from previous quarter
(annual rate)
6
US
Euro area
Japan
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
sep.00 des.00 mar.01 jun.01 sep.01 des.01
Source: EcoWin
Chart 1.2 Equity prices and long-term interest rates
in the US and prices for industrials (USD). Index,
Week 1 in 2001 = 100
110
110
Prices for industrials
100
100
Long rates
90
90
Wilshire 5000
80
80
70
Jan-01
70
Apr-01
Jul-01
Oct-01
Jan-02
Sources: Norges Bank, EcoWin, The Economist
and Wilshire Associates
Chart 1.3 Oil price, Brent Blend. USD per barrel
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
1999
0
2000
2001
2002
Sources: International Petroleum Exchange and Norges
Bank
Chart 1.4 Effective NOK exchange rates. Importweighted exchange rate and trade-weighted
exchange rate
115
110
115
Trade-weighted exchange rate
(1990=100)
110
105
105
100
100
95
Import-weighted exchange rate
(Week 1 1995=100)
95
90
90
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 1.5 Traditional merchandise exports. Volume
and price. Percentage rise on same quarter previous
year
30
Volume
Price
20
30
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
1999
2000
Source: Statistics Norway
2001
Chart 1.6 Consumer confidence indicator (level).
Estimated trend.
40
Combined confidence
indicator
25
10
25
Confidence in own
financial situation
-5
-20
40
10
-5
Confidence in
country's economy
-35
-20
-35
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
Sources: Norsk Gallup Institutt AS and Norges Bank
Chart 1.7 Goods consumption index. 1995 = 100.
Seasonally adjusted volume
122
122
2001
120
118
116
120
118
116
2000
114
114
112
1999
112
110
110
108
108
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Statistics Norway
Chart 1.8 The credit indicator (C2), credit to
households and total credit to the non-financial
private sector and municipalities, mainland Norway
(C3). 12-month rise. Per cent
15
15
C3 mainland Norway
10
10
C2
5
0
1997
Credit to
households
5
0
1998
Source: Norges Bank
1999
2000
2001
Chart 1.9 Number unemployed (LFS), number of
registered unemployed and persons in labour market
programmes. In thousands. Seasonally adjusted1)
125
125
Registered unemployed and
labour market programmes
100
LFS unemployment
75
75
Registered unemployed
50
25
50
25
0
1997
1) LFS
100
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
unemployment: 3-month moving average
Sources: Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour
Chart 1.10 Change in unemployment on same
month previous year. In thousands of persons
9
9
Whole country
7
5
7
5
Western Norway
3
Southern
Norway
1
-1
-3
3
1
-1
Central and
northern Norway Eastern Norway
-5
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Source: Directorate of Labour
-3
Jul-01
-5
Jan-02
Chart 1.11 Consumer prices adjusted for tax
changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE).
Total1) and distributed by imported and domestically
produced goods and services2). 12-month rise. Per
cent
5
5
Goods and services produced in Norway
3
3
CPI-ATE
1
1
-1
-3
1999
Imported consumer goods
-3
2000
2001
1) Norges
2002
Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter
figures published by Statistics Norway
Norges Bank's estimates
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
2)
-1
Chart 1.12 Consumer prices by delivery sector.
12-month rise. Per cent
14
12
10
14
Services with wages
as a dominant price
factor
Transport services
12
10
8
8
6
6
House rent
4
2
0
1999
4
2
CPI
0
2000
Source: Statistics Norway
2001
2002
Chart 1.13 Consumer prices adjusted for tax
changes. Cars, clothing and footwear and imported
consumer goods. 12-month rise. Per cent
6
4
6
Imported consumer goods
Cars
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-8
1999
-6
Clothing and footwear
-8
2000
2001
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
2002
Chart 1.14 Consumer prices (CPI). Total and
adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy
products. 12-month rise. Per cent
CPI
4
4
CPI-AT1)
3
3
CPI-ATE1)
2
2
1
1
0
1999
0
2000
2001
2002
CPI-AT: CPI adjusted for tax changes
CPI-ATE: CPI adj. for tax changes and ex energy products
1) Norges
Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter figures
published by Statistics Norway
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 1.15 Consumer prices. Energy-related
products1). 12-month rise. Per cent
40
25
40
Electricity
25
Fuel and lubricants
10
10
-5
-5
-20
1999
-20
2000
2001
2002
Electricity accounts for 3.3% of the total CPI. Fuel
and lubricants account for 4.2% of the total CPI
1)
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 2.1 Quarterly change in US GDP, annualised.
Contribution to growth in volume. Seasonally
adjusted. Per cent
10
8
Private consumption
Private investment
Gov’t consumption and investment
6
Net export
Inventories
GDP
10
8
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
2000
-6
2001
2002
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Norges
Bank
Chart 2.2 Private saving and household net wealth
in the US as a percentage of disposable income
14
12
10
700
Net wealth
(right-hand scale)
600
500
8
400
6
300
4
2
Saving ratio
(left-hand scale)
0
200
100
0
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02
Sources: Datastream, EcoWin, the Federal Reserve and
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Chart 2.3 Consumer confidence indicators in the US
and the euro area
155
140
5
US
(left-hand scale)
0
125
110
-5
-10
Euro area
(right-hand scale)
95
-15
80
1997
-20
1998
1999
2000
2001
Sources: EcoWin, the European Commission and
The Conference Board
2002
Chart 2.4 Business sentiment indicators in the US
and the euro area
60
20
Euro area
(right-hand scale)
55
10
50
0
45
-10
40
35
1997
-20
US (left-hand scale)
-30
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Sources: EcoWin, ISM and the European Commission
Chart 2.5 Industrial output. Seasonally adjusted
indices, January 1997=0
130
130
120
Euro area
110
US
120
110
Sweden
100
100
Norway
90
1997
90
1998
1999
2000
Sources: EcoWin and Statistics Norway
2001
2002
Chart 2.6 Unfilled orders in the technology industry.
Value indices, 1995=100
150
150
Mechanical
125
125
100
100
75
75
50
1997
Electronic and
optical
Metals
50
1998
1999
Source: Statistics Norway
2000
2001
2002
Chart 2.7 Gross investment in petroleum activities.
In billions of NOK. Constant 1997 prices
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 2.8 Structural non-oil budget balance1)
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
1) The
budget balance is the change on the previous year,
expressed as a percentage of trend mainland GDP.
Sources: National Budget and Supplementary
Proposition 2002, Ministry of Finance
Chart 2.9 Household saving and net financial wealth.
Percentage of disposable income
8
6
80
Saving ratio
(left-hand scale)
60
4
2
40
Wealth ratio
(right-hand scale)
20
0
0
-2
-20
-4
-40
-6
-60
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 2.10 Household loan debt as a percentage of
disposable income and household interest expense
after tax as a percentage of cash income
170
12
Interest burden
(right-hand scale)
150
130
110
9
6
Loan debt
(left-hand scale)
90
3
0
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2.11 Developments in some indices on the
Oslo Stock Exchange. Daily figures, 01.01.0021.02.02. Indices, 3 January 2000 = 100
150
150
125
Financial
125
100
100
75
75
Manufacturing
50
IT
All-share index
25
Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02
Source: EcoWin
50
25
Chart 2.12 Manufacturing employment, 1970-2001.
In 1000s of people employed.
400
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Source: Statistics Norway
Chart 2.13 Relative labour costs in Norwegian
manufacturing compared with trading partners.
Index, 1990=100
110
105
110
Local currency
105
100
100
95
95
90
Common currency
90
85
85
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Sources: Statistics Norway, the Technical Reporting
Committee on Income Settlements and Norges Bank
Chart 2.14 Change in number employed from
previous year (in thousands) and LFS unemployment
rate
8
80
6
40
4
0
2
-40
Unemployment rate
(left-hand scale)
Employed
(right-hand scale)
0
-80
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 2.15 Change in labour force from previous
year, and labour force as a percentage of population
aged 16-74 (labour force participation rate)
74
Labour force participation
(per cent, left-hand scale)
80
40
72
70
0
68
66
Change in LFS labour force
(thousands, right-hand scale)
64
-40
-80
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 3.1 Rise in labour costs1) and unemployment
rate. Per cent
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
Rise in labour costs
0
1990
Registered
unemployment and
persons on labour
market programmes
2
0
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Hourly labour costs in mainland Norway including the costs
of additional vacation days. For 2001 we have excluded
extraordinary pension payments to KLP (the municipal sector
pension fund) in local government
1)
Sources: Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour
Chart 3.2 Profitability in manufacturing. Wage
share1) and return on total assets2)
10
78
Return on total assets
(left-hand scale)
9
76
8
74
7
72
Wage share
(right-hand scale)
6
70
5
68
4
1990
66
1)
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Labour costs as a percentage of value added
Result for the year + net interest and financial costs as a
share of total assets. Excluding oil companies
2)
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 3.3 Producer and consumer prices for
Norway's trading partners. 12-month rise. Per cent
5
5
Producer prices
3
3
Consumer prices
1
1
-1
-1
-3
1999
-3
2000
2001
Sources: EcoWin, Datastream, the OECD and
Norges Bank
2002
Chart 3.4 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes
and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). Total and
distributed by imported and domestically produced
goods and services. 12-month rise. Per cent
4
Goods and services produced in Norway
4
CPI-ATE
2
2
Imported consumer goods
0
0
-2
-2
Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 3.5 Consumer prices (CPI). Total and adjusted
for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPIATE). 12-month rise. Per cent
5
4
5
CPI
3
2
4
3
CPI-ATE
1
2
1
0
0
Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 3.6 Expectations concerning short-term
money market rates1). Per cent
8
Forward rates
21 February
6
Forward rates
25 October
8
6
4
4
2
2
0
1999
0
2000
2001
1) 3-month
2002
2003
2004
money market rates up to 21 February. Three-month
forward rates are estimated using four money market rates and
five government bond yields with different maturities as
observed on 21 February.
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 3.7 Forward rate differential against Germany.
Percentage points
4
4
3
3
2
2
21 February
1
1
25 October
0
0
01
02
03
04
Source: Norges Bank
05
06
07
08
09
Chart 3.8 Household saving as a percentage of
disposable income and the current account balance1)
as a percentage of GDP in the US
12
12
9
9
Household saving ratio
6
3
6
3
Current account
0
0
-3
-3
-6
-6
1990
1) OECD
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
estimates for 2001
Sources: OECD and Bureau of Economic Analysis
Chart 3.9 Oil price, Brent Blend. USD per barrel
40
40
30
30
IR 1/2002
20
20
Futures prices
20 February
10
10
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
0
2004
Sources: International Petroleum Exchange and Norges
Bank
Chart 3.10 Consumer price inflation1). Projection and
uncertainty. 12-month rise. Per cent
4
4
3
3
2.5
2.5
2
2
30% 50% 70% 90%
1
1
0
Jan-01
0
Jul-01
1) Adjusted
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
for tax changes and excluding energy products
(CPI-ATE).
The bands in the fan indicate different probabilities for
consumer price inflation.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 3.11 Evaluation of the risks to the inflation
projection for the first quarter of 2004
Probability density
2½
0.0
50%
1.0
Source: Norges Bank
50%
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
To annex:
12
12
10
10
Overnight rate
8
8
6
4
2
Assumption
Deposit rate
4
3-month money
market rate
0
1995
6
2
0
1996
1997
Source: Norges Bank
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
115
115
Trade-weighted exchange rate
(1990=100)
110
110
105
IR 1/02: 101.8
105
100
100
95
IR 1/02: 94.4
Import-weighted exchange rate
(Week 1 1995=100)
90
1995
95
90
1996
1997
Source: Norges Bank
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
The credit indicator (C2), credit to households and total credit to
the non-financial private sector and municipalities, mainland
Norway (C3). 12-month rise. Per cent
15
15
C3 mainland Norway
10
10
C2
5
5
Credit to households
0
1997
0
1998
Source: Norges Bank
1999
2000
2001
2002
Consumer prices (CPI and CPI-ATE). 12-month rise. Per cent
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
CPI
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
CPI-ATE
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
Jul-00
0.0
Oct-00
Source: Norges Bank
Jan-01
Apr-01
Jul-01
Oct-01
Jan-02
3-month rates in the US, the euro area and Japan
7
7
6
6
US
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
Euro area
Japan
2
1
1
0
1995
0
1996
1997
1998
Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank
1999
2000
2001
2002
Box:
Evaluation of Norges
Bank's projections for
2000
Chart 1 Projections for some key variables for 2000
published at various times. Annual increase. Per cent
6
6
Projection for 2000 published in 1998
Projection for 2000 publ. in 1999
Actual figure 2000
5
4
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
Mainland
demand
Mainland Unemploy- Wage
GDP
ment1)
growth2)
1) Level
2) Including
the costs of additional vacation days
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Price
inflation
-1
Chart 2 Estimates for some key variables for 2000
published in December 1999 by various institutions.
Annual increase. Per cent
4
3
Consensus
FIN
Actual figure 2000
Statistics Norway
Norges Bank
4
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
Mainland GDP
Consumer price inflation
Sources: Consensus Economics Inc., Statistics Norway
(SN), Ministry of Finance (FIN) and Norges Bank
Box:
Wage growth
Labour costs per person-hour, mainland Norway.
Actual1) and estimated. Percentage change from
previous year.
14
14
12
12
10
10
Actual wage
growth
8
8
6
6
4
4
Estimated
wage growth
2
0
2
0
1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
1) For
2001 we have excluded extraordinary pension
payments to KLP (municipal pension fund) in local
government
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Box:
Have Norges Bank’s
interest rate decisions
been anticipated?
Change in money market rates following Norges Bank's monetary policy meetings.
1 July 1999 - 25 January 2002. Percentage points
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0
0
Change in deposit rate
Change in 3-month interest rate
Change in 1-month interest rate
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan99 99
99
00 00
00
00 00
00
01 01
01
01 01
01 02
Source: Norges Bank