Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Air-Related Environmental Challenges for the 21st Century Joint EPA/NASA/NOAA Workshop on Air Quality and Related Climate Change Issues September 14-16, 2004 John Bachmann Associate Director for Science/Policy and New Programs Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Air Pollution Connections • An overview of some key air related priorities • Overview of recent NRC Air Quality Management Report • Multiple links to energy, transportation, other media, related societal goals and impacts • Where we have succeeded/what challenges remain • Focus on PM/ozone/air toxics futures • Highlight links to other major societal issues, science/policy questions NRC Air Quality Management Report: current AQM limitations Despite substantial progress the Committee identified - in its comprehensive review of the Act - a number of limitations, for example: • Inability to measure progress quantitatively to accurately confirm that goals are being met • A single pollutant approach implemented through a cumbersome and often bureaucratic planning process • Lack of focus on ecological effects (vs. health effects) • Not certain that resources are being used to mitigate pollutants that pose the greatest risks NRC Recommendations for an Enhanced AQM System The Challenges Ahead •Meeting NAAQS for O3 and PM2.5 and Reducing Regional Haze •Designing and Implementing Controls for Hazardous Air Pollutants •Protecting Human Health and Welfare in the Absence of a Threshold Exposure • Ensuring Environmental Justice •Assessing and Protecting Ecosystem Health •Mitigating Intercontinental and Cross-Border Transport •Maintaining AQM System Efficiency in the face of Changing Climate The Long-Term Objectives for AQM to Meet Future Challenges AQM Should Strive To: •Identify and Assess Most Significant Exposures, Risks, and Uncertainties •Take an Integrated Multipollutant Approach to Mitigating Most Significant Risks •Take an Airshed-Based Approach to Controlling Emissions •Emphasize Results Over Process, Create Accountability, and Dynamically Adjust Recommended Changes to the AQM System 1. Strengthen Scientific and Technical Capacity 2. Expand National and Multistate Control Strategies 3. Transform the SIP Process 4. Develop Integrated Program for Criteria and Hazardous Air Pollutants 5. Enhance Protection of Ecosystems and Other Public Welfare The Night Sky as Energy/Environmental Indicator THE Environmental Issue? Air Pollution Scales of Influence •Global – e.g. climate change, stratospheric ozone, persistent-bioaccumulative toxic pollutants (Hg, dioxins) •Regional – e.g. ozone, fine particles health, acid rain, visibility, nutrient loadings •Local –e.g. ozone, PM health, air toxics •Personal – indoor air/outdoor penetration, asthma NYC Progress Toward Clean Air 1970-2001 Pollution Down While Growth Continues 300 GDP (+158%) Percent of 1970 Value 250 VMT (+143%) 200 150 U.S. Population (+36%) 100 baseline 50 1970 75 80 85 Year 90 95 00 Criteria Pollutants (aggregate) (-29%) Rural sulfate trends track regional SOx emissions Wet Sulfate Deposition 1989-1991 2000-2002 Scale: Regional Focus: PM – alone and with gases • Significant effects associations: – – – – – Premature death from heart and lung disease Aggravation of heart and lung diseases, including asthma Cardiac arrythmias and heart attacks Coughing, wheezing and chronic bronchitis And possibly lung cancer mortality, infant mortality • Is PM composition important? – Probably, but likely multiple “bad” actors – A number of studies found effects of PM components, e.g. sulfate; few OC, many black carbon (i.e. black smoke) • Implications for future NAAQS/Control approaches – Short-term (hours)/long-term/ composition-sources Visibility and quality of life Urban: Winhaze model for Washington, DC. Top: Fine mass at the level of the current 24-hr NAAQS of 65 ug/m3 5 mile visual range, 39 deciview. Bottom: ~ Natural conditions, 90 mile visual range, 12 deciviews, less than 2.5 ug/m3. Urban Visibility - Secondary NAAQS Class I Areas: Regional Haze Emerging health effects evidence on ozone • Premature mortality in elderly • Relationship between ozone levels and respiratory hospital admissions in children • Incidence of newly diagnosed asthma in children associated with outdoor activity & living in areas with high ozone exposures • Higher ozone exposures related to increased school absenteeism Fine Particle (PM2.5), O3 Concentrations (2000-2002) Note: Based on 1999-2001 monitoring data of counties with monitors that have three years of complete data. Ozone Nonattainment (226 Counties) PM2.5 Nonattainment (49 Counties) Both Nonattainment (71 Counties) Addressing Regional Transport • EPA is pursuing two mechanisms to address transport in the future: – Clear Skies Act • Legislation that addresses transported air pollution from power plants in addition to other environmental concerns (e.g., mercury). – Clean Air Interstate Rule • Regulatory approach that uses existing CAA mechanisms to address transported air pollution from all potential transport sources. – Regional Haze long-term strategies 317 Eastern Counties Exceeding Standards in 2002 O3 Only ( 218 Counties) PM2.5 Only ( 43 Counties) Both O3 & PM2.5 ( 56 Counties) Ozone and Particle Pollution The Clean Air Interstate Rule, together with other Clean Air Programs, will bring cleaner air to areas in the East 39 Remaining Eastern Counties Likely to Exceed Standards with Interstate Air Quality Rule in 2015 O3 Only ( 26 Counties) PM2.5 standard = 15 µg/m3 PM2.5 Only ( 13 Counties) Both O3 & PM2.5 ( 0 Counties) 8-hour Ozone Standard = 0.08 ppm Forecast: Air Quality Index • Year Round 24/7 coverage/operations delivering real-time data (ozone & particles) for 46 States, 6 Canadian Provinces and all U.S. National Parks • Next-day AQI forecasts for over 300 cities (summer) and over 150 cities (year-round) • State-of-the-science information about air pollution health effects for the public, media and stakeholders • Public/Private partnerships with The Weather Channel, USA Today, CNN, weather service providers, NOAA National Weather Service, EPA’s Office of Env. Information Persistent Toxics: Mercury Contamination in Fish • Currently 44 states have issue fish consumption advisories for some or all of their waters due to contamination from mercury.* States with Fish Advisories Due to Mercury Mercury Advisories by Type Advisories for specific waterbodies only Statewide freshwater advisory only Statewide freshwater advisory + advisories for specific waterbodies Statewide coastal advisory No mercury advisory *Note: For more information about the relationship between fish advisories and human exposure to mercury, see the EPA Report “America's Children and the Environment: Measures of Contaminants, Body Burdens, and Illnesses” available at http://yosemite.epa.gov/o chp/ochpweb.nsf/content/ publications.htm NATA - National Scale Assessment 1996 Predicted County Level Carcinogenic Risk • Median Risk Level • • <1 in a Million 1 - 25 in a Million • 25 - 50 in a Million • 50 - 75 in a Million • 75 - 100 in a Million • >100 in a Million 1999 NATA Median Risk Values 1.00E-04 Background Nonroad 9.00E-05 Onroad Area 8.00E-05 Major 7.00E-05 6.00E-05 5.00E-05 4.00E-05 3.00E-05 2.00E-05 1.00E-05 0.00E+00 • CT • ME • MA • NH • NJ • NY • RI • VT Local PM Sources: EC/Organic Carbon, Nitrates, other NYC urban excess 10 Top: Urban Increment Bottom: Regional Contribution mobile source/pollutant issues ug/m3 8 Bronx site 6 4 2 Brigantine NJ 0 Sulfate Ammonium Nitrate TCarbon (k=1.4) Crustal New findings on roadway pollution High exposure to ultrafine particles, CO, other pollution near roadway Increased risk near and on roadways Extreme exposure in near highway environment Relative Particle Number, Mass, Black Carbon, CO Concentration near a major LA freeway Respiratory Symptoms and traffic Weiland, Ann Epidemiol 1994;4:243 40 35 Bochum, GER 30 25 wheeze (questionnaire wheeze (video) allergic rhinitis 20 15 10 5 0 never seldom frequent constant Frequency of Truck Traffic You can run – but can you hide? Air pollution and the ‘built’ environment – design/planning for health, air quality, and sustainability “Cool” Cities • Trees aren’t just good to look at – they remove air pollution (ozone and PM) – They also emit VOC’s – And cool the environment reducing evaporative emissions from manmade sources • Air Policy Issue – Credit for enhancing tree cover – Penalty for eliminating trees? International transport/climate interactions Scale: global/regional Asia a Priority: Air Quality/Health Improvements have climate benefits Air Pollution (PM and O3) significant Climate Forcers CO2 (1.4) Black Carbon PM (1.4) Ozone Global Black Carbon Emissions * in 106 kg/year/1ox1o grid (David Streets & Tami Bond, 2002) Modeling intercontinental ozone transport – significant component of background Surface Ozone Enhancements caused by antrhopogenic emissions from different continents GEOS-CHEM model, July 1997 North America (zero-out) Europe (zero-out) Asia (zero-out) Li et al. [2001, JGR] Air Pollutants (PM, O3, CH4) and climate CO2 (1.4) Ozone Black (0.8) Carbon Note: significant uncertainties, simplifications CH4 (0.7) Estimated Change of Climate Forcing between 1850 and 2000 (Hansen et al., PNAS, 2001) Climate change is not always global •INDOEX, other preliminary work suggest significant potential of BC aerosol for affecting hydrologic cycle on a regional basis •Significant effects of Asian pollution on health, crops •Short-life of conventional pollutants suggests rapid response to reductions Apportioning contributions, effects of major air sources Demonstrating benefits of pollution reduction Dublin, Ireland Ban on bituminous coal: 9/1/90 -5.7% -10.3% Clancy et al. Lancet 2002; 360: 1210-1214 Alternative Futures • Critical to look for opportunities for integration – Energy/agriculture/transportation/multi-media • Integrated, market-oriented approaches • The 2010+ PM review a crossroads – Shorter averaging times/continuous monitoring – The pollutant indicator(s) – addition/subtraction? • Some mega-trends – Increased focus on international/global air pollution/climate issues – Air quality management integrated into larger societal programs, e.g. smart growth, urban planning – Increasing importance of voluntary/local programs – Tracking results of initiatives is vital: e.g. compare success of indoor v. outdoor programs at reducing PM exposures