Download Air-Related Environmental Challenges for the

Air-Related Environmental Challenges
for the 21st Century
Joint EPA/NASA/NOAA Workshop on Air Quality and
Related Climate Change Issues
September 14-16, 2004
John Bachmann
Associate Director for Science/Policy and New Programs
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Air Pollution Connections
• An overview of some key air related priorities
• Overview of recent NRC Air Quality Management
Report
• Multiple links to energy, transportation, other
media, related societal goals and impacts
• Where we have succeeded/what challenges remain
• Focus on PM/ozone/air toxics futures
• Highlight links to other major societal issues,
science/policy questions
NRC Air Quality Management
Report: current AQM limitations
Despite substantial progress the Committee identified - in its
comprehensive review of the Act - a number of limitations, for
example:
• Inability to measure progress quantitatively to accurately
confirm that goals are being met
• A single pollutant approach implemented through a
cumbersome and often bureaucratic planning process
• Lack of focus on ecological effects (vs. health effects)
• Not certain that resources are being used to mitigate
pollutants that pose the greatest risks
NRC Recommendations for an Enhanced AQM System
The Challenges Ahead
•Meeting NAAQS for O3 and PM2.5 and Reducing Regional Haze
•Designing and Implementing Controls for Hazardous Air Pollutants
•Protecting Human Health and Welfare in the Absence of a Threshold Exposure
• Ensuring Environmental Justice
•Assessing and Protecting Ecosystem Health
•Mitigating Intercontinental and Cross-Border Transport
•Maintaining AQM System Efficiency in the face of Changing Climate
The Long-Term Objectives for AQM to Meet Future Challenges
AQM Should Strive To:
•Identify and Assess Most Significant Exposures, Risks, and Uncertainties
•Take an Integrated Multipollutant Approach to Mitigating Most Significant Risks
•Take an Airshed-Based Approach to Controlling Emissions
•Emphasize Results Over Process, Create Accountability, and Dynamically Adjust
Recommended Changes to the AQM System
1. Strengthen Scientific and Technical Capacity
2. Expand National and Multistate Control Strategies
3. Transform the SIP Process
4. Develop Integrated Program for Criteria and Hazardous Air Pollutants
5. Enhance Protection of Ecosystems and Other Public Welfare
The Night Sky as Energy/Environmental
Indicator
THE Environmental
Issue?
Air Pollution Scales of Influence
•Global – e.g. climate change, stratospheric
ozone, persistent-bioaccumulative toxic
pollutants (Hg, dioxins)
•Regional – e.g. ozone, fine particles
health, acid rain, visibility, nutrient
loadings
•Local –e.g. ozone, PM health, air toxics
•Personal – indoor air/outdoor penetration,
asthma
NYC
Progress Toward Clean Air 1970-2001
Pollution Down While Growth Continues
300
GDP (+158%)
Percent of 1970 Value
250
VMT (+143%)
200
150
U.S. Population
(+36%)
100
baseline
50
1970
75
80
85
Year
90
95
00
Criteria Pollutants
(aggregate)
(-29%)
Rural sulfate trends track regional SOx emissions
Wet Sulfate Deposition
1989-1991
2000-2002
Scale: Regional
Focus: PM – alone and with gases
• Significant effects associations:
–
–
–
–
–
Premature death from heart and lung disease
Aggravation of heart and lung diseases, including asthma
Cardiac arrythmias and heart attacks
Coughing, wheezing and chronic bronchitis
And possibly lung cancer mortality, infant mortality
• Is PM composition important?
– Probably, but likely multiple “bad” actors
– A number of studies found effects of PM components, e.g.
sulfate; few OC, many black carbon (i.e. black smoke)
• Implications for future NAAQS/Control approaches
– Short-term (hours)/long-term/ composition-sources
Visibility and quality of life
Urban: Winhaze model for Washington, DC. Top: Fine mass at the level of
the current 24-hr NAAQS of 65 ug/m3 5 mile visual range, 39 deciview.
Bottom: ~ Natural conditions, 90 mile visual range, 12 deciviews, less than 2.5
ug/m3.
Urban Visibility - Secondary NAAQS
Class I Areas: Regional Haze
Emerging health effects evidence
on ozone
• Premature mortality in elderly
• Relationship between ozone levels and
respiratory hospital admissions in children
• Incidence of newly diagnosed asthma in
children associated with outdoor activity &
living in areas with high ozone exposures
• Higher ozone exposures related to increased
school absenteeism
Fine Particle (PM2.5), O3 Concentrations (2000-2002)
Note: Based
on 1999-2001
monitoring
data of
counties with
monitors that
have three
years of
complete
data.
Ozone Nonattainment (226 Counties)
PM2.5 Nonattainment (49 Counties)
Both Nonattainment (71 Counties)
Addressing Regional Transport
• EPA is pursuing two mechanisms to address transport
in the future:
– Clear Skies Act
• Legislation that addresses transported air pollution from power
plants in addition to other environmental concerns (e.g., mercury).
– Clean Air Interstate Rule
• Regulatory approach that uses existing CAA mechanisms to address
transported air pollution from all potential transport sources.
– Regional Haze long-term strategies
317 Eastern Counties
Exceeding Standards
in 2002
O3 Only ( 218 Counties)
PM2.5 Only ( 43 Counties)
Both O3 & PM2.5 ( 56 Counties)
Ozone and Particle
Pollution
The Clean Air
Interstate Rule,
together with other
Clean Air
Programs,
will bring cleaner
air to areas in the
East
39 Remaining Eastern
Counties Likely to
Exceed Standards
with Interstate Air
Quality Rule in 2015
O3 Only ( 26 Counties)
PM2.5 standard = 15 µg/m3
PM2.5 Only ( 13 Counties)
Both O3 & PM2.5 ( 0 Counties)
8-hour Ozone Standard = 0.08 ppm
Forecast: Air Quality Index
•
Year Round 24/7 coverage/operations delivering real-time data (ozone &
particles) for 46 States, 6 Canadian Provinces and all U.S. National Parks
•
Next-day AQI forecasts for over 300 cities (summer) and over 150 cities
(year-round)
•
State-of-the-science information about air pollution health effects for the
public, media and stakeholders
•
Public/Private partnerships with The Weather Channel, USA Today, CNN,
weather service providers, NOAA National Weather Service, EPA’s Office of
Env. Information
Persistent Toxics: Mercury Contamination in Fish
• Currently 44 states have issue fish consumption advisories for some or all of
their waters due to contamination from mercury.*
States with Fish Advisories Due to Mercury
Mercury Advisories by Type
Advisories for specific waterbodies only
Statewide freshwater advisory only
Statewide freshwater advisory +
advisories for specific waterbodies
Statewide coastal advisory
No mercury advisory
*Note: For more
information about the
relationship between fish
advisories and human
exposure to mercury, see
the EPA Report
“America's Children and
the Environment:
Measures of
Contaminants, Body
Burdens, and Illnesses”
available at
http://yosemite.epa.gov/o
chp/ochpweb.nsf/content/
publications.htm
NATA - National Scale Assessment
1996 Predicted County Level Carcinogenic Risk
•
Median Risk Level
•
•
<1 in a Million
1 - 25 in a Million
•
25 - 50 in a Million
•
50 - 75 in a Million
•
75 - 100 in a Million
•
>100 in a Million
1999 NATA Median Risk Values
1.00E-04
Background
Nonroad
9.00E-05
Onroad
Area
8.00E-05
Major
7.00E-05
6.00E-05
5.00E-05
4.00E-05
3.00E-05
2.00E-05
1.00E-05
0.00E+00
•
CT
•
ME
•
MA
•
NH
•
NJ
•
NY
•
RI
•
VT
Local PM Sources: EC/Organic
Carbon, Nitrates, other
NYC urban excess
10
Top: Urban Increment
Bottom: Regional Contribution
mobile source/pollutant issues
ug/m3
8
Bronx site
6
4
2
Brigantine NJ
0
Sulfate
Ammonium
Nitrate
TCarbon (k=1.4)
Crustal
New findings on roadway pollution
High exposure
to ultrafine
particles, CO,
other pollution
near roadway
Increased risk
near and on
roadways
Extreme exposure in near highway environment
Relative Particle Number,
Mass, Black Carbon, CO
Concentration near a major
LA freeway
Respiratory Symptoms and traffic
Weiland, Ann Epidemiol 1994;4:243
40
35
Bochum, GER
30
25
wheeze (questionnaire
wheeze (video)
allergic rhinitis
20
15
10
5
0
never
seldom
frequent constant
Frequency of Truck Traffic
You can run – but can you hide?
Air pollution and the ‘built’ environment – design/planning
for health, air quality, and sustainability
“Cool” Cities
• Trees aren’t just good to
look at – they remove air
pollution (ozone and PM)
– They also emit VOC’s
– And cool the environment
reducing evaporative
emissions from manmade
sources
• Air Policy Issue
– Credit for enhancing tree
cover
– Penalty for eliminating trees?
International transport/climate
interactions Scale: global/regional
Asia a Priority: Air Quality/Health
Improvements have climate benefits
Air Pollution (PM and O3) significant Climate Forcers
CO2 (1.4)
Black Carbon PM (1.4)
Ozone
Global Black Carbon Emissions
* in 106 kg/year/1ox1o grid (David Streets & Tami Bond, 2002)
Modeling intercontinental ozone
transport – significant component of
background
Surface Ozone Enhancements caused by antrhopogenic emissions
from different continents
GEOS-CHEM model,
July 1997
North America
(zero-out)
Europe
(zero-out)
Asia
(zero-out)
Li et al. [2001, JGR]
Air Pollutants (PM, O3, CH4) and climate
CO2 (1.4)
Ozone
Black (0.8)
Carbon
Note: significant
uncertainties,
simplifications
CH4 (0.7)
Estimated Change of Climate Forcing between 1850 and 2000
(Hansen et al., PNAS, 2001)
Climate change is not always
global
•INDOEX, other preliminary work suggest significant
potential of BC aerosol for affecting hydrologic cycle on a
regional basis
•Significant effects of Asian pollution on health, crops
•Short-life of conventional pollutants suggests rapid
response to reductions
Apportioning
contributions, effects
of major air sources
Demonstrating benefits of pollution reduction
Dublin, Ireland
Ban on bituminous coal: 9/1/90
-5.7%
-10.3%
Clancy et al. Lancet 2002; 360: 1210-1214
Alternative Futures
• Critical to look for opportunities for integration
– Energy/agriculture/transportation/multi-media
• Integrated, market-oriented approaches
• The 2010+ PM review a crossroads
– Shorter averaging times/continuous monitoring
– The pollutant indicator(s) – addition/subtraction?
• Some mega-trends
– Increased focus on international/global air pollution/climate issues
– Air quality management integrated into larger societal programs, e.g.
smart growth, urban planning
– Increasing importance of voluntary/local programs
– Tracking results of initiatives is vital: e.g. compare success of indoor v.
outdoor programs at reducing PM exposures