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Between Determinism and Voluntarism Determinant Factors of Small State Foreign Policy Máté Szalai 14.10.2015. Determinism • • • • Voluntarism Limitations of foreign policy The set of possibilities of small states The determinative factors The hierarchy between the determinative factors The Determinant Factors of Foreign Policy 1. International political and economic system 2. Geopolitics 3. The process of state-making 4. Internal and external institutions, structures and norms 5. Identity Realist determinism: geopolitics and the international system Realist determinism: geopolitics and the international system Officially neutral Rethorically neutral Austria (1955-1994) Panama (1989-) Cambodia (19551970; 1993-) Costa Rica (1949-) San Marino (1862-) Mexico (1939-) Finland (1956-1994) Sweden (1918-1994) Hungary ( only during 1956) Ireland (1937-1972) Switzerland (1815-) Laos (1962-1964; 1975-) Liechtenstein (1868-) Malta (1980-2004) Liberal determinism: institutions and state-making State-making processes define the basic norms and institutions of a state Internal institutions define the way of policy-making, decision-making, articulation, etc. External institutions limit and widen the set of possibilities of small states Voluntarism: Identity Identity defines the set of possibilities Self-perception and political views shapes the foreign policy of small states What kind of identity? How can we asses to investigate the notion of identity? Role of learning Dan Reiter: the role of learning in the foreign policy decision-making in small states Facing unexpected situations politicians and diplomats– tend to rely on personal, institutional and socio-psychological experiences through the process of learning Rawl Abdelal – Yoshiko M. Herrera – Alastair Iain Johnston – Rose McDemott (2006): Identity as a Variable. Perspectives on Politics, vol. 4. no. 4., pp. 695-711 IDENTITY 1 C O N T E N T CONTESTATION Constitutive norms Define membership and ind. behav. 4. We have to stick together Social Purposes Define collective goals 3. Sole aim: survival Relational comparisons Compare the group with others 1. We are smaller Cognitive models Interpret material conditions 2. Smallness means weakness The extent of consensus IDENTITY 2 IDENTITY 3 „The identity of smallness” Case study: Slovakia and Hungary We will examine the foreign policy of Slovakia and Hungary from all three perspectives But first… Case study: can we call Hungary and Slovakia small? What region should we choose? Broader neighborhood the 28 members of the European Union; the candidate and potential candidate countries of the EU; the participants of the Eastern Partnership program; other members of the European Economic Community; and the Russian Federation. The GDP of the Slovak Republic and Hungary in their "Broader Neighborhood" (1993-2012) 700,000,000,000 600,000,000,000 VALUE OF THE GDP 500,000,000,000 400,000,000,000 300,000,000,000 200,000,000,000 100,000,000,000 0 Av. Of the Broader Neighborhood Slovak Republic Hungary Av. Of the EU-28 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 YEAR Population in Slovakia and Hungary in their broader neighborhood (2013) 20,000,000 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 18,095,684 18,097,831 2,000,000 5,414,095 0 Av. of the Broader Neighborhood EU-average 9,897,247 Slovak Republic Hungary Land area of the Slovak Republic and Hungary in their broader neighborhood (2013) KM2 0 Hungary Slovak Republic EU-Average Av. of the Broader Neighborhood 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 Km2 90530 48088 151345.75 408745.413 300000 350000 400000 450000 Miliatary Expenditures of Slovakia and Hungary in their Broader Neighborhood (1993-2012) MILITARY EXPENDITURES AS % OF THE GDP 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YEAR Av. of the Broader Neighborhood EU-Average Slovak Republic Hungary Case study: Hungary and Slovakia 1. What are the main characteristics of Slovakia and Hungary from the different points of view? 2. According to the theory, what should the Hungarian and Slovakian foreign policy look like? 1. Aims 2. Fluctuation of foreign policy after elections 3. EU-policy 4. Priority regions 1. Attributes of Slovakia and Hungary Realist Determinism Liberal Determinism Voluntarism International political and economic system, geopolitics External and internal institutions Identity • PCW-system • A region of small states between great powers • Energydependency on Russia • Evolving democracies • Functionable IOs • Lack of historical experiences • Lack of small state experiences Basic data about Hungarian and Slovakian foreign policy since 1990 Sovereign independence General aims of foreign policy Hungary Slovakia 1990.05.23. 1993.01.01. • Euro-Atlantic integration, • Neighborhood policy, • „Nation-policy” • Euro-Atlantic integration • Neighborhood policy Fluctuation of foreign policy after elections High Low EU-policy Changing Supporting deeper integration Priority regions Anomalies • EU, USA, Russia • Countries with Hungarian minorities • Western Balkan • Global policy • High fluctuation after elections • More confrontative • EU,USA, Russia • Western-Balkans Meciar-government (19931997)