Download Between Determinism and Voluntarism Determinant Factors of

Between Determinism and
Voluntarism
Determinant Factors of Small State Foreign Policy
Máté Szalai
14.10.2015.
Determinism
•
•
•
•
Voluntarism
Limitations of foreign policy
The set of possibilities of small states
The determinative factors
The hierarchy between the determinative factors
The Determinant Factors of Foreign
Policy
1. International political and economic system
2. Geopolitics
3. The process of state-making
4. Internal and external institutions, structures and norms
5. Identity
Realist determinism: geopolitics and
the international system
Realist determinism: geopolitics and
the international system
Officially neutral
Rethorically neutral
Austria (1955-1994)
Panama (1989-)
Cambodia (19551970; 1993-)
Costa Rica (1949-)
San Marino (1862-)
Mexico (1939-)
Finland (1956-1994)
Sweden (1918-1994)
Hungary ( only during
1956)
Ireland (1937-1972)
Switzerland (1815-)
Laos (1962-1964;
1975-)
Liechtenstein (1868-)
Malta (1980-2004)
Liberal determinism: institutions and
state-making
 State-making processes define the basic norms and institutions of a state
 Internal institutions define the way of policy-making, decision-making,
articulation, etc.
 External institutions limit and widen the set of possibilities of small states
Voluntarism: Identity
 Identity defines the set of possibilities
 Self-perception and political views shapes the foreign policy of small states
 What kind of identity? How can we asses to investigate the notion of
identity?
 Role of learning
 Dan Reiter: the role of learning in the foreign policy decision-making in small
states
 Facing unexpected situations politicians and diplomats– tend to rely on personal,
institutional and socio-psychological experiences through the process of learning
Rawl Abdelal – Yoshiko M. Herrera – Alastair Iain Johnston – Rose McDemott
(2006): Identity as a Variable. Perspectives on Politics, vol. 4. no. 4., pp. 695-711
IDENTITY 1
C
O
N
T
E
N
T
CONTESTATION
Constitutive
norms
Define
membership
and ind. behav.
4. We have to
stick together
Social Purposes
Define
collective goals
3. Sole aim:
survival
Relational
comparisons
Compare the
group with
others
1. We are
smaller
Cognitive
models
Interpret
material
conditions
2. Smallness
means
weakness
The extent of
consensus
IDENTITY 2
IDENTITY 3
„The identity of smallness”
Case study: Slovakia and Hungary
 We will examine the foreign policy of Slovakia and Hungary from all three
perspectives
 But first…
Case study: can we call Hungary and
Slovakia small?
 What region should we choose?
 Broader neighborhood
 the 28 members of the European Union;
 the candidate and potential candidate countries of the EU;
 the participants of the Eastern Partnership program;
 other members of the European Economic Community; and
 the Russian Federation.
The GDP of the Slovak Republic and Hungary in their "Broader
Neighborhood"
(1993-2012)
700,000,000,000
600,000,000,000
VALUE OF THE GDP
500,000,000,000
400,000,000,000
300,000,000,000
200,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
0
Av. Of the Broader Neighborhood
Slovak Republic
Hungary
Av. Of the EU-28
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
YEAR
Population in Slovakia and Hungary in their broader neighborhood
(2013)
20,000,000
18,000,000
16,000,000
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
18,095,684
18,097,831
2,000,000
5,414,095
0
Av. of the Broader Neighborhood
EU-average
9,897,247
Slovak Republic
Hungary
Land area of the Slovak Republic and Hungary in their
broader neighborhood (2013)
KM2
0
Hungary
Slovak Republic
EU-Average
Av. of the Broader Neighborhood
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Km2
90530
48088
151345.75
408745.413
300000
350000
400000
450000
Miliatary Expenditures of Slovakia and Hungary in their Broader
Neighborhood
(1993-2012)
MILITARY EXPENDITURES AS % OF THE GDP
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
YEAR
Av. of the Broader Neighborhood
EU-Average
Slovak Republic
Hungary
Case study: Hungary and Slovakia
1. What are the main characteristics of Slovakia and Hungary from the
different points of view?
2. According to the theory, what should the Hungarian and Slovakian foreign
policy look like?
1. Aims
2. Fluctuation of foreign policy after elections
3. EU-policy
4. Priority regions
1. Attributes of Slovakia and Hungary
Realist Determinism
Liberal Determinism
Voluntarism
International political
and economic
system, geopolitics
External and internal
institutions
Identity
• PCW-system
• A region of small
states between
great powers
• Energydependency on
Russia
• Evolving
democracies
• Functionable IOs
• Lack of historical
experiences
• Lack of small state
experiences
Basic data about Hungarian and
Slovakian foreign policy since 1990
Sovereign independence
General aims of foreign policy
Hungary
Slovakia
1990.05.23.
1993.01.01.
• Euro-Atlantic integration,
• Neighborhood policy,
• „Nation-policy”
• Euro-Atlantic integration
• Neighborhood policy
Fluctuation of foreign policy
after elections
High
Low
EU-policy
Changing
Supporting deeper integration
Priority regions
Anomalies
• EU, USA, Russia
• Countries with Hungarian
minorities
• Western Balkan
• Global policy
• High fluctuation after
elections
• More confrontative
• EU,USA, Russia
• Western-Balkans
Meciar-government (19931997)