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Redistributive land taxation Alain Trannoy Canazei Winter school January 2017 Modern public economics • When we think nowadays about redistributive taxation • Progressive income tax • Capital tax, inheritance tax Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) 2 Georgism • Single tax movement: Henry George is best known for his argument that the economic rent of land (location) should be shared by society • George proposed to create a pension and disability system, and an unconditional basic income from surplus land rents. It would be distributed to residents "as a right" instead of as charity. • Georgists often refer to this policy as a citizen’s dividend in reference to a similar proposal by Thomas Paine Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 3 Letter to Gorbatchev November 7, 1990 Mikhail Gorbachev, President Union of Soviet Socialist Republics Dear Mr. Gorbachev: The movement of the Soviet Union to a market economy will greatly enhance the prosperity of your citizens. Your economists have learned much from the experience of nations with economies based in varying degrees on free markets… It is important that the rent of land be retained as a source of government revenue. While the governments of developed nations with market economies collect some of the rent of land in taxes, they do not collect nearly as much as they could, and they therefore make unnecessarily great use of taxes that impede their economies--taxes on such things as incomes, sales and the value of capital. Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 4 30 economists among whom • William Vickrey, Jacques Thisse, Tibor Scitovsky, James Tobin, Richard Musgrave, Franco Modigliani, Zvi Griliches, William Baumol, Robert Solow • “In my opinion, the least bad tax is the property tax on the unimproved value of land, the Henry George argument of many, many years ago.” Milton Friedman Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) 5 Henry Georges’ Theorem • Arnott and Stiglitz (1979) • Under some conditions, it is optimal to finance local public infrastructures and utilities with a tax on rents or tax on real estate” • Different perspective, not local public finance, but nationwide public finance. Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) 6 Outline 1. Why a revival of Georgism? 2. Is it possible to fund a basic income with a property tax on land which correct both inequalities in ownership of land and capital? 3. In the likely case where the level of tax rate on the real estate cannot be politically accepted by landowners, is a tax on rents (without including imputed rents) second best? 4. The actual world is quite different from that of Henry George with the emergence of a vast middle class which becomes homeowner when people are sufficiently old. Should the property tax also be borne by the “old middle class”? Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) 7 Based on forthcoming WP Land is back…and it must be taxed Odran Bonnet, Guillaume Chapelle, Alain Trannoy, Etienne Wasmer Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) 8 1. Aftermath of Piketty’s book • The impetus: “Capital in the twenty-First Century” • Piketty did three things: 1. From an empirical view point: new series about 𝐾/𝑌 2. From a theoretical view point: exploding accumulation of capital and linkage with growing inequality 3. From a policy view point: a world tax on capital Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 9 Housing land: main source of divergence of K/Y (France) Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 10 Housing price indices Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 11 Residential-structure price indices Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 12 Housing Land prices indices Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 13 Share of land in housing capital Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 14 Why increasing housing land prices/income ratio ? 1. Credit 2. Population growth 3. Land regulation Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 15 Credit exuberance (Robert Shiller) • Credit exuberance during the beginning of this millenium. – Lower interest rates – Longer mortgage maturity – Lower downpayment or higher loan-to-value ratio – Higher cap for debt-to-income ratio Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 16 Credit exuberance France: Mortgage-to-downpayment ratio for existing properties: first-time owners, other owners 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 1985 1990 Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) 1995 2000 2005 Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 2010 2015 17 Real causes • Growth of population “The value and thus economic rent of land, which is permanently inelastic in supply, is governed by the growth in demand for land for purposes of food production and housing, which in turn is driven by population growth. The increasing value and rent is, in the Ricardo-George context, entirely due to the growth of population” Warren Samuel You don’t need sunspots to trigger a housing land bubble Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 18 Housing land regulation • Three different periods for France • 1955-1975 : the influence of Le Corbusier • Social housing and large housing estates • Relatively « land use saving » • 1975-1995 : Middle class left large housing estates for new houses in suburbs. • Urban sprawn, « land use augmenting » • 1995: « Greenness » more respectful of agricultural land and recreative areas. • Restrictive zoning • Local political equilibrium (because it will increase the price of housing land for already homeownert) Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 19 Paris Le Corbusier 1937 Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 20 Credit maybe not the original cause • Suppose that bankers are smart. – They remember the Ricardo-George result for countries with growing population or shift to smaller household’size – They expect land regulation to be a political equilibrium – They deduce that on the long run the value of the mortgage collateral will be pushed up. – They will be very friendly when new mortgages are asked. • Credit lines up with the fundamentals • And people are just bayesians with respect to the evolution of housing land prices. Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 21 Our reading of Piketty Empirical side 1. The evolution of 𝐾/𝑌 is mainly governed by housing 2. The evolution of the market value of housing is mainly driven by land price for both real, policy and financial reasons Policy side Suppose that we can tax housing land separately from structures. (Example of Pittsburgh of “two rates” or “Split-rates” from 1913 to 1979-1980) see Oates and Wallace 1997 NTJ) Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 22 2. Macroeconomic foundation of Neogeorgism • Is it possible to fund a basic income with a property tax on land which correct both inequalities in ownership of land and capital? • Judd’s model (close but a bit different from Chamley) Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 23 Judd’s model • Two types of agents, one type of capital, one aggregate consumption good – Capitalists optimally choose capital and intertemporally allocate consumption 𝐶𝑡 , and capital investment 𝐼𝑡 – Workers consume their wages 𝑐𝑡 = 𝑤𝑡 • Capital taxation is not first best, and not even second best. • Judd = Negative Ramsey result. • Still some mathematical pbs (Straub & Werning (2015)) Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 24 Extension to land use and property • Two classes: capitalists and landlords vs workers and tenants. • Benchmark: Housing = Land housing • The capitalists own all land 𝐻 • For their housing use, 𝐻𝑡 , and they rent the remaining to workers ℎ𝑡 • Purely redistributive aim of taxation to redistribute welfare from capitalists to workers. (No public expenditure) • Link with equality of opportunity Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 25 Model (I) Capital investment equation: 𝐾𝑡+1 = 𝐾𝑡 1 − 𝛿 + 𝐼𝑡 Utility of capitalists-landowners: ∞ 𝛽𝑡 𝑈(𝐶𝑡 , 𝐻𝑡 ) 𝑡=0 Utility of workers-tenants: ∞ 𝛽 𝑡 𝑢(𝑐𝑡 , ℎ𝑡 ) 𝑡=0 Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 26 Model (2) Ressource constraint of the economy: 𝑐𝑡 + 𝐶𝑡 + 𝐾𝑡+1 ≤ 𝑓 𝐾𝑡 + 1 − 𝛿 𝐾𝑡 Factor’s returns: 𝑤𝑡 = 𝑓 𝐾𝑡 − 𝑓 ′ 𝐾𝑡 𝐾𝑡 𝐾𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑅𝑡 = 𝑓 ′ 𝐾𝑡 + 1 − 𝛿 Tax on capital: 𝜏𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙,𝑡 Net return on capital : 𝑅𝑡𝐾𝑛𝑒𝑡 = (1 − 𝐾𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝜏𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙,𝑡 )𝑅𝑡 Tax rate of the rent: 𝜏𝑅𝑒𝑛𝑡,𝑡 Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 27 Capitalists/landlords program Maximisation program: ∞ 𝛽𝑡 𝑈(𝐶𝑡 , 𝐻𝑡 ) Max 𝐶𝑡 ,𝐻𝑡 ,𝐾𝑡+1 𝑠. 𝑡. 𝐶𝑡 + 𝐾𝑡+1 = 𝐾 𝑅𝑡 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑡=0 𝐻 1 − 𝜏𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙,𝑡 𝐾𝑡 + 𝑅𝑡 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 (1 − 𝜏𝑅𝑒𝑛𝑡,𝑡 )(𝐻 −𝐻𝑡 ) Euler equation: 𝐾 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑈𝐶′ 𝐶𝑡 , 𝐻𝑡 = 𝛽𝑅𝑡+1 1 − 𝜏𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙,𝑡 𝑈𝐶′ (𝐶𝑡+1 , 𝐻𝑡+1 ) Intra-period allocation: 𝑈𝐻′ 𝐶𝑡 , 𝐻𝑡 = 𝐻𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑅𝑡 1 − 𝜏𝑅𝑒𝑛𝑡,𝑡 𝑈𝐶′ (𝐶𝑡 , 𝐻𝑡 ) Transversality condition: 𝛽t 𝑈𝐶′ (𝐶𝑡 , 𝐻𝑡 ) → 0 Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 28 Workers/tenants program Worker does not save. Live in ℎ units of rented housing and consume from their wage and of a government transfer 𝑇 Maximization program: ∞ 𝛽𝑡 𝑢(𝑐𝑡 , ℎ𝑡 ) Max 𝑐𝑡 ,ℎ𝑡 𝑠. 𝑡. 𝑡=0 𝑐𝑡 + 𝐻𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 ℎ𝑡 𝑅𝑡 = 𝑤𝑡 + 𝑇𝑡 First order condition: 𝑢ℎ′ Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) 𝑐𝑡 , ℎ𝑡 = 𝐻𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 ′ 𝑅𝑡 𝑢𝑐 𝑐𝑡 , ℎ𝑡 Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 29 First best setting • The Gvt is able to commit to future tax policies • In a model without land, we already know that the first best can be implemented through – constant tax on consumption for all periods (Coleman (2000) JpubE) or – tax on capital with tax credit on new capital = tax rate (Abel (2007 JPubE) – Way to tax initial capital • No restrictions on instruments – Tax on land – Tax on rents including imputed rents Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 30 Program of the social planner ∞ 𝛽𝑡 𝑢 𝑐𝑡 , 𝐻 −𝐻𝑡 + 𝛾𝑈(𝐶𝑡 , 𝐻𝑡 ) Max 𝑐𝑡 ,𝐶𝑡 ,𝐻𝑡 ,𝐾𝑡+1 𝑠. 𝑡. 𝑡=0 𝑐𝑡 + 𝐶𝑡 + 𝐾𝑡+1 = 𝑓 𝐾𝑡 + 1 − 𝛿 𝐾𝑡 𝛾𝑈′𝐶 (𝐶𝑡 ,𝐻𝑡 ) = 𝑢′𝑐 (𝑐𝑡 , 𝐻 -𝐻𝑡 ) = λ𝑡 𝛾𝑈′𝐻 (𝐶𝑡 ,𝐻𝑡 ) = 𝑢′ℎ (𝑐𝑡 , 𝐻 -𝐻𝑡 ) λ𝑡 / λ𝑡+1 = 𝛽(𝑓 ′ 𝐾𝑡+1 + 1 − 𝛿)) At the steady state: 𝑅 Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) 𝐾𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 = 1 𝛽 Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 31 First-best taxation Results • A tax on land or a tax on rents including imputed rents decentralizes the first best • Taxation of capital or rents are not first-best optimal Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 32 3. Second best setting • The set of available distortionary tax instruments is given and the optimal tax system within this set is explored • Not possible to confiscate initial capital • Three constraints on land tax instruments – No land register • Only 50 countries have one (over 200) (Van der Molen et Al 2014) – The most hated tax: in the US (Cabral-Hoxby (2012)), among the Swedes (Hammar and al.(2008)) • Cap on the property tax as in California proposition 13 (June 6, 1978). – Not possible any more to tax imputed rent • Likely because ownership becomes widespread (up to 1963 in France) Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 33 Ramsey problem • Tax on “new” capital vs tax on housing rents – Gvt finances redistribution by a flat tax either on rents or capital • Maximize social welfare under constraints – Resource constraint of the economy for each period – FOCs of the capitalist (Euler, intraperiod allocation between consumption and housing, transversality) – FOC of the worker Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 34 Without Housing: Planner Program ∞ 𝛽𝑡 𝑢 𝑐𝑡 + 𝛾𝑈(𝐶𝑡 ) Max 𝑐𝑡 ,𝐶𝑡 ,𝐾𝑡+1 𝑡=0 𝑐𝑡 + 𝐶𝑡 + 𝐾𝑡+1 = 𝑓 𝐾𝑡 + 1 − 𝛿 𝐾𝑡 Mutiplier 𝜆 𝛽𝑈 ′ 𝐶𝑡 𝐶𝑡 + 𝐾𝑡+1 − 𝑈 ′ 𝐶𝑡−1 𝐾𝑡 Mutiplier 𝜇 𝛽𝑡 𝑈 ′ 𝐶𝑡 𝐾𝑡+1 → 0 Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 35 Statement of Judd’s result • (Version of Straub & Werning (2015) Theorem: Suppose quantities and multipliers converge to an interior steady state, i-e, 𝑐𝑡 , 𝐶𝑡 , 𝐾𝑡 converge to positive values and 𝜇𝑡 converges. Then the tax on capital is zero in the limit. Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 36 Completing Judd’s statement We define 𝛾𝑈 ′ (𝐶) =𝛼 ′ 𝑢 (𝑐) 𝐶 1−𝜎 𝑈 𝐶 = 1−𝜎 Proposition: Suppose quantities converge to an interior steady state. Then The mutiplier 𝜇𝑡 converge iff 1 − 𝛼 1 − 𝜎 > 0. More specifically, if 𝛼 < 1 then the convergence of mutipliers occurs iff 𝜎 < 1. Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 37 The case of separable preferences 𝑈 𝐶𝑡 , 𝐻𝑡 = 𝑈1 𝐶𝑡 + 𝑈2 (𝐻𝑡 ) 𝑢 𝑐𝑡 , 𝐻 −𝐻𝑡 = 𝑢1 𝑐𝑡 + 𝑢2 ℎ𝑡 𝑥 1−𝜎 𝑢1 ∙ = 𝑈1 ∙ = 1−𝜎 𝑢2 ∙ and 𝑈2 ∙ unspecified Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 38 The optimization pb with housing ∞ Max 𝐻𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑐𝑡 ,𝐶𝑡 ,𝐻𝑡 ,𝐾𝑡+1 ,𝑅𝑡 𝛽𝑡 𝑢 𝑐𝑡 , 𝐻 −𝐻𝑡 + 𝛾𝑈(𝐶𝑡 , 𝐻𝑡 ) 𝑡=0 C1 𝑐𝑡 + 𝐶𝑡 + 𝐾𝑡+1 = 𝑓 𝐾𝑡 + 1 − 𝛿 C2 𝛽𝑈1′ 𝐶𝑡 𝐻 mutiplier 𝜆 𝐶𝑡 + 𝐾𝑡+1 − 𝑅𝑡 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝐻 −𝐻𝑡 − 𝑈1′ 𝐶𝑡−1 𝐾𝑡 = 0 multiplier 𝜇 𝐻 C3 𝑅𝑡 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑢1′ 𝑐𝑡 − 𝑢2′ 𝐻 −𝐻𝑡 ≥ 0 multiplier 𝜂1 ≥ 0 𝐻 C4 𝑅𝑡 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑈1′ 𝐶𝑡 − 𝑈2′ 𝐻𝑡 ≥ 0 multiplier 𝜂2 ≥ 0 C5 𝛽𝑡 𝑈1′ 𝐶𝑡 𝐾𝑡+1 → 0 Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 39 Two parameters 𝛾 the relative social welfare weight of capitalists ≤ 1 𝛾𝑈1′ 𝐶𝑡 𝛼= ′ 𝑢1 𝑐𝑡 Distance to first best 𝛾𝑈2′ 𝐻𝑡 𝛼ℎ = ′ 𝑢2 ℎ𝑡 Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 40 Local result Proposition Consider the steady state of the second best optimum when 𝛼 < 1 and 𝜎 < 1 and the tax on capital is zero in the limit. If we consider a small pertubation around the steady state with a small rent tax financing a lump sum benefit to the worker, then social welfare is improving at the margin. However, we do not know whether a zero tax on capital is still optimal in the limit in the economy with a rent tax as an additional instrument. Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 41 Main result • Proposition – Assume that the following instruments are available to the decision-maker: tax on capital, lump sum benefit to workers, tax on rents. – Consider an economy where the preferences of both the capitalist and worker are separable, with a CRRA subutility of consumption. – Suppose that quantities converges to an interior steady state and that 𝜎, 𝛼 and 𝛼ℎ < 1. – Then the optimal tax on capital is 0 and the optimal tax on rents is positive in the limit. – the stock of capital = the stock of capital in the first best. Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 42 The second best optimal housing rent tax Proposition: The optimal rent tax is given by 𝜏∗ 1−𝜏∗ = 1−𝛼 𝜖𝑠 where 𝜖𝑠 the supply elasticity of rental housing land wrt to net rent With CRRA sub-utility of housing 𝜖𝑠 = 1/𝜎𝐻 𝜏∗ 1−𝜏∗ Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) = 𝜎𝐻 (1 − α) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 43 Interpretation of the result • In a static setting, Diamond&Mirrlees (1971) shows that it is better not to tax production. Depending on the context, it may be second best optimal to tax consumption. • In a dynamic setting, not optimal to tax capital because it is productive. • Housing is a consumption good and under some conditions it can be optimal to tax it. Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 44 4. Middle class • Karl Marx’s description of 19th century England : 36,000 homeowners • Alternative to Henry Georges, dissemination of property thanks to mortgage • Mortgage might be partially responsible for housing land inflation (a bad thing) but also for a good thing (reducing wealth inequality) • Life-cycle savers. They rent when young and accumulate savings for the downpayment. They become homeowners when old. Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 45 Only 3 meaningful wealth classes 4 wealth classes France 2015 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Average age % of total population % of total gross wealth % total housing gross wealth % of total non-housing gross wealth 1- Tenants with wealth lower than € 100,000 2- Tenants with wealth larger than € 100,000 3- Homeowners with non-housing wealth lower than € 100 000 3- Homeowners with non-housing wealth larger than € 100 000 Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 46 Main Issue • In that context, is George’s idea useless? • Or should we just exempt the (old) middle class from the property tax? (in that case, we are almost back to the previous model) • Dilemma: Housing Land is more evenly distributed than financial capital but the deadweight loss to tax housing land is lower Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 47 Three class model • Capitalists: as previously + they can sell land instead of renting it to lifecycle savers • Workers-tenants • Life-cycle savers (live two periods) – – – – They have a higher productivity and then wages than workers They are workers-tenants-savers when young They buy land (no credit) at the end of their working time period. When they retired they sell their house and consume hand to mouth until they died. No bequest. • Housing Land market between the capitalists and young life-cyle savers during the transition period • Housing land market between young and old life-cycle savers at the steady state Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 48 Discussion • If you do not exempt the old life-cycle savers – Transfer to the young – Transfer to the tenant-worker • Transfer to the young vs gifts • Transfer to the tenant-worker: does the inequality of opportunity argument works? Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 49 Global new Georgian view • Two-tier property tax 1. Property tax to finance local public goods (à la Arnott-Stiglitz) on all owners 2. Additional property tax at the national or federal level on homeowners whose wealth is above some threshold to finance means of fight against poverty. Land is back… (Leuven – April 2016) Bonnet, Bono, Chapelle, Trannoy, Wasmer 50