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ONE-WAY ANOVA AND TWO-SAMPLE COMPARISON 1) The basic procedure. ANOVA is an acronym for Analysis Of Variance. It is a methodology for testing hypotheses regarding population means in various contexts. One-way ANOVA refers to the methodology for testing the equality of two or more population means, based on independent samples from each of the populations. Thus, if mu1, mu2, … ,muk denote the means of k populations, one-way ANOVA is a methodology for testing H_0 : mu1= mu2= … =muk, against the alternative that not all are equal. Here we will demonstrate the use of Minitab for carrying out this test procedure using the data from www.stat.psu.edu/~mga/401/labs/05/lab6/anova.fe.data.txt. The data are about total Fe for four types of iron formation (1= carbonate, 2= silicate, 3= magnetite, 4= hematite). If the data from the different populations (also called factor levels in the ANOVA jargon) are given in different columns, then use the sequence of commands Stat >ANOVA>One-way (Unstacked)>Enter C1-C4 for Response, 95 for confidence level>OK. [If the data from all factor levels are stored in one column, there must also be a second column which indicates the group membership of each observation in the first column. Call this second column “formation”. The sequence of commands in this case are: Stat>ANOVA>One-way>Enter Fe as response and formation as Factor>OK ] The output that Minitab produces (other software packages produce similar outputs) is: One-way ANOVA: C1, C2, C3, C4 Source Factor Error Total DF 3 36 39 S = 3.955 Level C1 C2 C3 C4 N 10 10 10 10 SS 509.1 563.1 1072.3 MS 169.7 15.6 R-Sq = 47.48% Mean 26.080 24.690 29.950 33.840 StDev 3.391 4.425 2.854 4.831 Pooled StDev = 3.955 F 10.85 P 0.000 R-Sq(adj) = 43.10% Individual 95% CIs For Mean Based on Pooled StDev -----+---------+---------+---------+---(-----*------) (------*-----) (-----*-----) (------*-----) -----+---------+---------+---------+---24.0 28.0 32.0 36.0 The ANOVA table gives the decomposition of the total sum of squares into a sum of squares due to the population differences (Factor) and a sum of squares due to the intrinsic error. Thus, 509.1 + 563.1 = 1072.3 (not really, due to rounding). MS = SS/DF, and the F statistic is the ratio of the MS for Factor over MS for error. Typically, statistics books also have F-tables, where the value of the F statistic can be looked up. We do will not learn how to do that because Minitab produces the p-value, and does so in much greater accuracy than what we could do from the F-tables. [The F-distribution is characterized by two degrees of freedom (here the degrees of freedom of the F-statistic are 3 and 36) and thus contain only selected percentiles.] Because the p-value is small, the hypothesis of equality of the population means is rejected. Following the ANOVA table there is information about the estimate of the standard deviation, which is assumed to be the same in all populations (here the estimate is S=3.955, and it is also given in the last line of the output), and the R-Sq, which has the same significance as explained in the activity for regression. The individual sample means, estimated standard errors, and 95% CI for each population mean are also given. 2) Multiple Comparisons for One-Way ANOVA. When the null hypothesis is rejected it means that, the data strongly suggest that, at least one of the population means is different from the others. When k>2, additional testing needs to be done to identify which means appear to be different. This additional testing is called multiple comparisons. It involves performing all pair-wise comparisons (i.e. testing the null hypothesis of equality of each possible pairs of means) in such a way that the probability of committing a type I error for any of these pair-wise test procedures does not exceed the designated level of significance alpha. One of the ways of doing multiple comparisons, is to perform the aforementioned ANOVA test for each pair-wise comparison, at an adjusted level of significance. The adjusted level equals the designated alpha divided by the total number of pair-wise comparisons. This is called the Bonferroni method. Here we will demonstrate a different method, called the Tukey method, for doing pairwise comparisons, in such a way that the overall level of significance is alpha. . Stat >ANOVA>One-way (Unstacked)>Enter C1-C4 for Response, 95 for confidence level>Click Comparisons select Tukey’s, enter family error rate (5 for overall level of significance 0.05)>OK>OK The additional Minitab output, with my comments in brackets, is: Tukey 95% Simultaneous Confidence Intervals All Pairwise Comparisons Individual confidence level = 98.93% C1 subtracted from: C2 C3 C4 Lower -6.155 -0.895 2.995 Center -1.390 3.870 7.760 Upper 3.375 8.635 12.525 +---------+---------+---------+--------(------*------) (------*-----) (------*------) +---------+---------+---------+---------14.0 -7.0 0.0 7.0 [These are simultaneous CI for the differences mu1-mu2, mu1-mu3, and mu1-mu4. If a CI does not contain 0, the two means are declared significantly different. Thus, mu1 is significantly different from mu4, but not significantly different from mu2 or from mu3.] C2 subtracted from: C3 C4 Lower 0.495 4.385 Center 5.260 9.150 Upper 10.025 13.915 +---------+---------+---------+--------(------*-----) (------*------) +---------+---------+---------+---------14.0 -7.0 0.0 7.0 [These are simultaneous CI for mu2-mu3 and mu2-mu4. None of these CI contains zero, and thus mu2 is significantly different from both mu3 and mu4.] C3 subtracted from: C4 Lower -0.875 Center 3.890 Upper 8.655 +---------+---------+---------+--------(------*-----) +---------+---------+---------+---------14.0 -7.0 0.0 7.0 [This is a simultaneous CI for mu3-mu4. The CI contains zero, and thus mu3 is not significantly different from mu4.] 3) A Nonparametric Test for Comparing k Means The ANOVA methodology is exact (i.e. the F-statistic has the F-distribution) only if the population distributions are normal and have the same variance (they are homoscedastic), but it is approximately valid if the sample sizes are large without the normality assumption, provided the populations are homoscedastic. Moreover, the ANOVA methodology has more power (i.e rejects the null hypothesis, when it is not true, with higher probability) than any other test only when the k population distributions are normal and homoscedastic. An alternative test procedure, which is nearly as powerful as ANOVA under normality and homoscedasticty, but can be much more powerful than ANOVA when the population distributions are non-normal, is the Kruskal-Wallis test. Roughly speaking, the Kruskal-Wallis procedure consists of combining the data from the k populations and ranking the combined data set from smallest to largest. Each of the original observations is then replaced by its rank, and the ranks are used instead of the original observations in the ANOVA test statistic. [The actual Kruskal-Wallis test statistic is somewhat different than the procedure just described, but the difference gets smaller as the sample sizes increase.] In this activity we will learn how to implement the Kruskal-Wallis test with Minitab. We will use the data www.stat.psu.edu/~mga/401/labs/05/lab6/k-w.cortisol.data.txt. To use the Kruskal-Wallis procedure, the data must be stacked. Data>Stack>Columns, enter C1-C3 under Stack the Following Columns, click on Column of Current Worksheet and enter C4, enter C5 in Store Subscripts in>OK Then use the sequence of commands: Stat>Nonparametrics>Kruskal-Wallis, enter C4 for Response, and C5 for Factor>OK The Minitab output is: \ Kruskal-Wallis Test: C4 versus C5 Kruskal-Wallis Test on C4 C19 C15 C16 C17 Overall H = 9.23 N 10 6 6 22 Median 305.5 460.0 729.5 DF = 2 Ave Rank 6.9 15.0 15.7 11.5 P = 0.010 Z -3.03 1.55 1.84