Download Predicting thresholds of social behavioural responses to rapid

ESRC Environment & Human Behaviour Programme:
Project Description
Predicting thresholds of social behavioural
responses to rapid climate change
Summary
This research will contribute to understanding the way in which individuals might
respond to rapid climate change. Through survey the ways in which impacts are
perceived will be mapped and compared with potential behavioural responses. Of
particular interest will be any threshold in responses that may translate into significant
social impacts. The research will test the utility of a research methodology with
potential for replication and development in a larger-scale survey.
Background/Rationale
The social impact of rapid climate change, including any relationship to longer-term
scenarios, is not well understood. In terms of physical impacts rapid climate change is
a change of large enough magnitude, relative to natural climate variability, that a shift
in the mean or variability of the climate from one level to another occurs. Such
changes have had significant impacts on the sustainability of past societies.
Contemporary concern relates to how human-induced climate change and associated
changes in climate and weather patterns may impact present and future societies.
Frameworks for researching and understanding the impacts of climate change in
general are well-developed. Most frameworks are framed in terms of capacity to
adapt. However, rapid climate change brings with it new challenges, including how to
differentiate it from non-rapid scenarios. For the purposes of this research, rapid
climate change occurs at the threshold beyond which individuals react in a manner
that outpaces the ability of institutions (social, economic, political) to keep pace. This
results in an impairment of longer-term adaptive capacity.
Rapid climate change represents not only an acceleration of the processes challenging
adaptive capacity, but may also give rise to a qualitatively different set of social
behavioural responses, particularly where climate change is experienced at the
extremes of weather patterns, as opposed to a marginal change in existing patterns.
Understanding the thresholds at which such behaviour occurs necessitates a deeper
focus on individual and social psychological processes, set within broad social
contexts.
Key research questions
•
What rate of climate change can be considered ‘rapid’ so far as it gives rise to
a suite of social responses?
•
Can a threshold model of such responses contribute to a better understanding
of the social impact of rapid climate change?
•
How might behavioural responses vary among people from different social
contexts and backgrounds?
•
Can a mixed qualitative/quantitative research method (Q method) assist in
identifying major social groupings in terms of behavioural responses
Research approach
The research will follow four stages. Stage One will review the current scientific
understanding of rapid climate change. A broad review of historical precedents of
social impact of climate change will assist with the development of rapid climate
change scenarios. The review will also draw upon representations of climate change
in popular media and communication.
In Stage Two, this information will be used to develop a series of rapid climate
change scenarios covering major sections of UK society. These scenarios will provide
the usual physical, social and temporal impacts as well as the social boundary
conditions within which adaptive/maladaptive behaviours will manifest.
In Stage Three, a pilot ‘Q method’ study will be developed. The method combines
both qualitative and quantitative data inputs. It will produce (quantitative) outputs in
the form of typical response groupings to climate change. The mechanics of this
process will involve the development of a series of statements drawn from the
literature review relating to subjective responses to rapid climate change. A small (up
to 40) sample individuals will be asked to perform the ‘Q sorts’ — ranking the
statements according to level of agreement — relating to the climate change
scenarios. Preferred responses to each scenario will also be surveyed.
Stage Four, will analyse the results of the Q sorts. These will be cross correlated with
responses to climate change to look for consistency between subjective predisposition
and behaviour, and the impact of the differing climate scenarios on these
relationships. The outcome will permit the mapping of types of individuals (in given
social and economic context) and their response to rapid climate change scenarios.
Intended outcomes
Stage One will produce a stand-alone report of the nature of social impacts
(specifically behavioural ones) to rapid climate change based on historical and recent
case studies. A small report on possible rapid climate change scenarios in the UK
will also be produced. These will also be integrated with outcomes from the Q study
to produce a technical report, which will have a policy agency orientation. Journal
papers will aim at both climate scientists and social scientists. These will outline the
major types of subjective and associated behavioural responses to rapid climate
change and the impact of rate of change and contextual factors on the likelihood of
particular behaviours.
Researchers
Professor Judith Petts (PI)
Judith Petts is Professor of Environmental Risk Management and Head of the School
of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences, the University of Birmingham. She
has 20 years of applied research and advisory work on environmental risk
management with a focus at the interface between science and the public and
decision-making. She is involved in research into new approaches to public
involvement in decision-making, and in examining public responses to risks, risk
communication and the media and risk. She is a member of NERC Council, has acted
as an advisor to House of Lords and Commons committees and works with a number
of government departments on risk communication.
See also: http://www.ges.bham.ac.uk/staff/profiles/pettsji.htm
Dr Glenn McGregor
Dr Glenn McGregor is Reader in Synoptic Climatology. His research interests are
climate and health, climatic variability and change. He is involved in a number of
projects on climate and health and has the responsibility of developing heat stress
watch warning systems for 5 European cities in the context of the EU PHEWE project
and is PI for the NERC COAPEC project Climate Information for the Health Sector.
See also: http://www.ges.bham.ac.uk/staff/profiles/mcgregor.htm
Dr Simon Niemeyer
Simon Niemeyer’s areas of research interest include deliberative democracy and the
environment and environmental human behaviour within particular institutional
frameworks. He is experienced in using quantitative and qualitative methods for
understanding human environmental behaviour in political and economic contexts,
particularly in relation to deliberative processes, which will be transferred to this
project. He also has a strong interdisciplinary background in areas as diverse as
politics and political theory, economics, ecology and geology.
See also: http://www.ges.bham.ac.uk/staff/profiles/niemeyer.htm
Dr Kersty Hobson
Kersty Hobson is an environmental social scientist, whose previous research has
focussed on the policies, discourses and cultural politics of sustainability, with
particular reference to sustainable consumption. Her experience of using qualitative
methodologies in both academic and applied contexts will contribute to this research
project, as will her interest in public perceptions of environmental problems and
processes.
See also: http://www.ges.bham.ac.uk/staff/profiles/hobson.htm