Download Again, Answers may vary. Most students will bring up in

Name: ________________________
Things to Consider…
1. For those with a brain aneurysm, it can be a bit like living with a tiny time bomb
ticking in their head. What's worse, they might not know it's there, it doesn't
bother them, and maybe it never will. In fact, the risk of the aneurysm exploding
is only one in 100 each year. But if it does blow up, the chances of surviving are
only one in two, and the odds of surviving without severe brain damage are only
one in four.
Having a brain aneurysm -- a blood-filled pouch bulging out from a weak spot in
the wall of a brain artery -- is just like that. Some people with aneurysms have
headaches or vision problems, but most have no symptoms until the aneurysm
ruptures or bursts open, bleeding into the brain tissue and causing stroke, brain
damage, or even death. Between 1% and 5% of Americans may have
unruptured brain aneurysms, and about 15,000 Americans each year have a
stroke from a ruptured aneurysm.
Should screening be done to find unruptured brain aneurysms? And if found,
should there be an operation? What statistics/probability lead you to you
decision? Explain, in detail, your reasoning.
(Answers may vary depending on your classroom discussion. There is
no harm in screening for brain aneurysms. Most people, according to
the data, do not have brain aneurysms; and if they do, they cause no
side effects. The surgery is something students (as well as yourself)
may have varying opinions about. It is absolutely risky to go through
with any surgery—especially brain surgery. On the other hand, without
the surgery the patient’s life is at risk as well. When the odds say 1 in
100 aneurysms explode each year some may opt out of the surgery and
take their chances. An aneurysm that does explode is very deadly. Only
50% of patients survive and of those survivors only 25% of them will
go on living without brain damage. These statistics would suggest the
surgery is the better option, but again, students may have varying
opinions about this controversial topic.)
Name: ________________________
2. While it’s true that anyone can start their own business, and we often see
headlines highlighting the successful entrepreneurs in our country, you may want
to calculate the probability of your new businesses succeeding before making
any great strides. The success rate for first-time entrepreneurs is only 12%,
according to Funders and Founders.
Businesses with fewer than 20 employees have only a 37% chance of surviving
four years and only a 9% chance of surviving 10 years. Restaurants have the
highest failure rate, with only a 20% chance of surviving two years. No one
starts a business with the intention of failing. Many, however, start a business
with the odds greatly stacked against their success.
Given these startling statistics, why would anyone open a business? What are the
advantages of opening a new business? What elements should you consider,
when opening a business, to ensure you are one of the success stories?
(Again, Answers may vary. Most students will bring up in the
discussion the idea of independence from an employer. When someone
has a dream to own their own business they will go to great lengths to
make that happen. Even though the data suggests you have a higher
risk of failing then succeeding everyone wants to think they are the
exception and their idea for a business is the one that will succeed.
Students should discuss several elements for ensuring success within
their own company. These elements include, but are not limited to: low
start-up costs, large customer base, ideal location,
marketing/advertising strategies, excellent product, sound financial
decisions, low overhead, etc.)
3. Meteorological forecasting is all about probability, producing two types of
weather forecasts--dichotomous forecasts, which are considered 100 percent
probable, and polychotomous forecasts, which contain two or more probability
categories and offer different degrees of probability. Generally weather
forecasters have to predict likely weather patterns for whole districts, cities,
states and countries, and because weather often varies within quite small
geographical areas, it is difficult to be exact.
What instruments, knowledge, data resources, etc. do you think meteorologists
use to predict weather patterns?
(Meteorologists use past data records and keep track of weather
patterns per day throughout history. This data is compared over time
to predict trends. Additionally, Meteorologists use many different tools
for different purposes. Most people are familiar with thermometers,
barometers, and anemometers for measuring temperature, air
Name: ________________________
pressure, and wind speed, respectively. Meteorologists use other tools,
as well. For example, weather balloons are special balloons that have a
weather pack on them that measures temperature, air pressure, wind
speed, and wind direction in all the layers of the troposphere.
Meteorologists also use satellites to observe cloud patterns around the
world, and radar is used to measure precipitation. All of this data is
then plugged into super computers, which use numerical forecast
equations to create forecast models of the atmosphere. These forecasts
are simply educated guesses. They determine the probability of
particular weather patterns happening.)