Download City Centre Development and Design Birmingham

Mark Barrow
Strategic Director: Development
Birmingham City Council
Taking the Birmingham economy
forward and supporting
economic growth
Part 1 - Global Scale !
Our position in a changing world ?
Population Growth changes
Population
10
9
7
6
Populations 1950'
5
Populations 2008'
4
Populations 2050'
3
2
1
1750
La
tin
Place
As
ia
W
or
ld
US
A
Am
er
cia
Eu
ro
pe
Ch
in
a
In
di
a
Af
r ic
a
0
Ja
pa
n
People - Billions
8
Changes in Working-Age (15-64)
Population 2005 – 2050, by Continent
Continent
WAP in
2005
million
Asia
2583
3398
814
32%
Africa
509
1300
792
156%
Latin America+
Caribbean
356
489
132
37%
North America
223
274
50
22%
22
30
9
41%
Europe
499
384
-114
-23%
World
4192
5875
1682
40%
Oceania
1
WAP in
2050
million
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision: Medium Variant: United Nations
Change in Change in
WAP
%
million
World GDP
60
50
GDP
40
China/India
Europe
30
USA
Japan
20
10
0
Roman
1880
1980
Time
2010
2030
Workforce comparison !
• The unit cost of 1 English worker
=
=
=
=
20 Chinese
18 Indian
10 Latvian
6 Polish
• Size of manufacturing workforce
–
–
–
–
China
=
G7 combined =
USA
=
UK
=
115 m+
53 m
14 m
2.3m
Economic growth projections
Only 3.5% of UK exports
go to China..?
Region
2005
Actual
Annual
growth
2015
Projected
Change
Germany
6.8
3.50%
4.8
-2
France
5.9
4.80%
4.7
-1.2
27.3
6.10%
24.5
-2.8
EU24
40
5.50%
34
-6
EFTA
4.6
7.20%
4.6
-
Russia
1
27.70%
5.7
4.7
Turkey
0.7
8.80%
0.8
0.1
Other Nr Europe
2.2
4.30%
1.7
-0.5
4
15.30%
8.3
4.3
22.4
7.20%
22.5
0.1
6.7
8.60%
7.6
0.9
29.2
7.60%
30.2
1
China + Hong Kong
3.2
12.50%
5.1
1.9
India
1.1
12.60%
1.8
0.7
Japan
3.3
1.00%
1.8
-1.5
9
6.30%
8.3
-0.7
16.5
7.50%
17
0.5
Africa
3.3
7.30%
3.3
-
Australasia
2.4
8.10%
2.6
0.2
100%
7.20%
100%
-
Other EU24
Near Europe
USA
Other Americas
Americas
Other Asia
Asia
World
Breakdown
of UK
exports by
value
80%+ of UK
exports to
low growth
economies ?
Excellent international
relationships are critical…
Example #1 - China
The China market (1)
• Worlds biggest car market:
– Approx 18m new cars sold in China last year
– China produces over a 1m cars a month.
• Worlds largest mobile phone market:
– over 950m + subscribers (20%)
– highest internet usage, 500m+ users
• Worlds 2nd largest luxury goods market:
– China has overtaken the US to become 2nd
after Japan.
Birmingham adding value in China…
• 17m. square
foot
• Equivalent area
of:
– Entire City
centre office
stock
– 12 Bullrings
• Linking
Birmingham
Science Park
Yingkou City, Lioning, China
So what does all this
mean for Birmingham
and for UK plc ?
Our future place in the world !
• First division economy ?
• Diminishing global
influence ?
• Smaller defence force
• Maturing traditional
consumer markets
• Ageing UK population
• The burden of the state
Tax / pension / health
burdens
• UK rank within the world
economy
– 2005 = 4th
– 2010 = 7th
– 2015 = 11th
– 2020 = ?
• G7 - G8 - G20
• What will our role and USP
be ?
How does all this….?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Shape how we support and help grow business
Inform how we educate tomorrows workforce
Affect how we up-skill today’s workforce
Influence transport planning & investment
Drive investment in digital infrastructure
Help us understand what investors may want
Affect our plans for investment and development
Guide our international civic leadership role
Point to opportunities for the people and
businesses of Birmingham
Taking the Birmingham
economy forward and
supporting economic growth
Part 2 - Local Scale !
Economic strength
Economic output by broad sector
Economic Performance
Share of GVA by industry, 1996-2008
GVA per Head at Current Prices (1998-2008)
Average annual change: 4.3% (Birmingham)
25,000
Average growth p.a. (%)
Gross Value Added (GVA) measures the contribution to the economy of each individual
producer, industry or sector in the UK.
100%
90%
20,000
80%
70%
60%
£m
15,000
50%
40%
10,000
30%
20%
5,000
10%
0%
1996
Birmingham
West Midlands
England
• Local GVA is persistently higher than the regional average
Source: Office of National Statistics
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Public Administration, Education, Health and Other Services
Business Services and Finance
Distribution, Transport and Communication
Construction
Production
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
• Declines in the production segment has been replaced
through growth in business services and public admin
Positive view from investment market
Investment market by value of
transactions
Locating green automotive #1
How are we going to stimulate
economic development, create jobs
and drive the social agenda ?
LEP 2020 Ambitions
• 100,000 new jobs
• £8.25bn increase in GVA
• Key sectors:
– Advanced Manufacturing
– Business & Financial Services
– Clinical research & Med-tech
– Creative & Digital
– Low Carbon technology
– Research & Development
– Transport & Building Technologies
• Build a world class workforce
Local Enterprise Partnership – Private Sector
• Andy Street (Chairman) –
Managing Director
John Lewis Partnership
KPMG Midlands Chairman
• Nick Bunker – President
Kraft Foods & Cadbury, UK & Eire
Managing Director
Tallent Auto
Ops Director,
Jaguar Land Rover
ex-National Express
• Wade Lynn –
• David Eastwood –
Managing Director
Cleone Foods (Island Delights)
Vice Chancellor
University of Birmingham
• Rob Brown –
• Paul Heaven – Principal
2 million population
• Alan Volkearts –
• David Kaye –
• Brian Francis –
Blue Sky Finance
• Steve Hollis – (Vice Chairman)
Group Managing Director
Roger Bullivant Ltd
9 Local Authority areas
125,000 students
Enterprise Zone – Ver. 1.
Checkpoint #1
Over the next 15 years across the LEP
area…
•
•
•
•
•
Population will grow by
Additional households
Additional older people
Additional (net) jobs needed
Additional School places needed
179,000
108,000
84,000
48,000
36,695
Birmingham population
issues
UK Immigration
43% Asia
35% Europe
22% Rest of
World
c.33% already
UK citizens
In 2010 the Net
inflow was
245,000
ONS / IPS
Birmingham population profile
Birmingham Population 2026 ?
Population Change Projections
Forecast Population Change
2011 - 2026
Chart: Indexed Population Growth 2001 = 100
250
Ethnic
Group
200
White
150
100
0
2001
White
Indian
Caribbean
Pakistani
African
+27,100
Indian
+1,800
Total
2006
2011
2016
2021
-95,850
Caribbean
Bangladeshi
50
Change
2011 2026
2026
Source: University of Manchester
- White and Caribbean populations expected to decline
-5,750
Pakistani
+77,050
Bangladeshi
+15,750
Chinese
+4,550
Other
+51,500
Total
+76,150
- Very strong growth in Pakistani / Bangladeshi population;
- Modest Growth in Indian population
- Also strong growth (from a low base) in African, Chinese and
‘Other’ ethnic groups (not charted)
3
Skills issues
Successful schools…
Skills Vital – Competitive Job Market
Yet Skills Deficit exists in Birmingham
Chart: Working Age Population - % with No Formal Qualifications
%
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
rm
Bi
3
7
am
h
g
in
l
oo
p
r
ve
i
L
r
le
am
te
st
h
s
a
g
e
c
n
ch
w
tti
n
e
o
a
N
N
M
Source: ONS Annual Population Survey
ds
e
Le
ld
ff ie
e
Sh
l
to
ir s
B
s
nd
a
l
id
M
t
es
W
U
K
Skills Vital – Competitive Job Market
Chart: 20-24 Year Olds Educated to degree level or higher (NVQ4+)
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
Source: ONS Annual Population Survey
tM
id
l
K
U
an
d
s
to
l
W
es
ca
ew
N
Br
is
st
le
oo
l
Li
ve
rp
s
Le
ed
Sh
ef
fi
te
r
M
an
ch
es
ha
m
Bi
rm
in
g
am
ng
h
ot
ti
el
d
0.0
N
%
Income
Relatively low household income
18,000
16,000
14,000
GDHI per Head at 2009
Prices (1996-2009)
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Average annual change:
3.4% (Birmingham)
Birmingham
West Midlands
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0
England
Gross disposable household income (GDHI) represents the amounts of money individuals have
available to spend on goods and services, to save or invest.
• Household income growing at a positive 3.4% p.a
Source: Office of National Statistics
Employment
LEP Unemployment trend
Employment by ethnicity
16-64 yr population – males
Male 16-64 yr Employment Rate by Ethnic Group
Highest Employment
rates for the city are
experienced by Indian
males (73%)
100%
Not Employed
90%
Employed
80%
70%
60%
50%
This is in contrast with
the Pakistani /
Bangladeshi male rate
of 56%.
40%
30%
20%
Source: Annual Population Survey
10%
Note: Pakistani category = Pakistani &
Bangladeshi
0%
Indian
Mixed
White
Black
Pakistani
Other
White Male rate in
Birmingham (71%) is
still below the national
figures for this group
(76%).
4
Employment by ethnicity
16-64 yr population – females
Female employment
rates differ sharply by
ethnic group.
Especially in
comparison to the
male rates.
Female 16-64 yr Employment Rate by Ethnic Group
Not Employed
100%
Employed
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
Pakistani /
Bangladeshi rate is
very low – with just
over a quarter of
working age women in
employment (27.9%)
30%
20%
Source:
Annual Population Survey
Note:10%
Pakistani category = Pakistani &
Bangladeshi
0%
Mixed
White
Black
The Indian female
employment rate is
below the average (as
opposed to the male
rate).
Indian
Pakistani
Other
4
Predicted Population Change
2011-26 - Working Age 16-64
60
(000,s)
50
Change ('000s)
40
30
Birmingham
10
0
-10
+48
Birmingham
+52
Solihull
Solihull
+3
Lichfield
Lichfield
+1
Bromsgrove
Bromsgrove
+1
Tamworth
East
Staffordshire
+1
Redditch
Cannock Chase
-1
Wyre Forest
Tamworth
-2
Redditch
-3
Wyre Forest
-3
East Staffordshire
20
LEP
Cannock Chase
Enterprise
A city of entrepreneurs
GEM Apps 2009 early stage entrepreneural ctivity
Gem
Survey 2010
Investing in Connectivity
A connected and smart city
SMART CITY
Tele-healthcare
Traffic routing & parking
Birmingham “Oyster” Card
Smartphone app’s
Smart energy grid
On demand learning
Smart buildings
4G Network
100mb Ultrafast Broadband
Using our buildings/highway assets
A Smart City
A Sustainable City
“Greenprint”
• Increasing access to finance for green
investment
• Increasing energy & water efficiency
• Reducing carbon emissions
• Growing green tech companies
• Commercialising R&D
• Developing a base of green industry talent
the money bit …
Example investments…
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Airport expansion
Eastside & Snow Hill
Enterprise Zone
Green housing retrofit
Highway/Lighting PFI
John Lewis
Library of Birmingham
Midland Metro
New Street Station
£
£
£
£
£
£
£
£
£
125m
300m
875m*
100m
2,700m
100m
190m
125m
630m
High Speed 2
£
1,500m *
£
6,520m
• Total
EXAMPLE #1
SOME NEW FINANCIAL TOOLS
• Tax Incremental Financing
(TIF)
• Retention of local business
rates ?
• Maximising & leveraging EU
Funding
• Regional Growth Fund
• Sector Thematic B.I.D’s
• New Homes Bonus
• Social Impact Bonds
• Community Based Budgets
EXAMPLE #2
•
Marketing & Business
Birmingham
•
Finance Birmingham (£10m
loan + £10m Equity)
•
Consolidating business advice &
support – “Business Hub”
•
Developing a ‘Supplier Park’
Offer for green and advanced
manufacturing
•
Science Park without walls
•
Support programmes for
entrepreneurs & first time
business
•
Creating a global profile &
forming strong relationships
SUPPORTING BUSINESS
We will….
• set in place a globally competitive business
climate
• be home to more world class industry clusters
• accelerate investment in strategic transport &
digital infrastructure
• be a global leader in sustainability
• provide regional/national leadership
• enable & maintain a high quality of life
• be the easiest place in the UK to do business
Please boast
about
Birmingham !
Thank you !
[email protected]