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CONSERVATION OF THREATENED SPECIES When the environmental factor changes beyond a certain level; plants especially endemic restricted species try to adapt to be away from the extinction zone. However, not all plants have the same ability to adapt to the new changes. Its become well known that plants lose its diversity with time as a result of population growth and resource consumption, climate change and global warming, habitat conversion and urbanization, invasive alien species, over-exploitation of natural resources and environmental degradation. The IUCN Red List of T hre ate ne d S pec ies highlights species that are at the greatest risk of extinction and promotes their conservation by 'concentrating minds on true priorities'. The Red List data are a source of information that is essential to guide conservation efforts focused on species. In this book we will try to enhance the understanding about the IUCN Red List Categories & Criteria through deep assessment on the conservation status of endemic plant species Primula boveana according to IUCN criteria in order to produce a series of recommendations for conservation action. Karim A. Omar Towards Plant Conservation Karim A. Omar Simple guide for Plant Conservation Assessment Dr. Karim A. Omar is an Environmental Researcher I GIS Specialist at Nature Conservation Sector, Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency with many international published articles in the field of Protected Areas, IUCN Red List, Conservation Strategies, Geomatics, and Plant Ecology. He has obtained his PhD in the field of Plant Conservation in 2013. Omar 978-3-659-49535-9 Karim A. Omar Towards Plant Conservation Karim A. Omar Towards Plant Conservation Simple guide for Plant Conservation Assessment LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing Impressum I Imprint Bibliografische Information der Deutschen Nationalbibliothek: Die Deutsche Nationalbibliothek verzeichnet diese Publikation in der Deutschen Nationalbibliografie; detaillierte bibliografische Daten sind im Internet uber http:IIdnb.d-nb.de abrufbar. Alle in diesem Buch genannten Marken und Produktnamen unterliegen warenzeichen-, marken- oder patentrechtlichem Schutz bzw. sind Warenzeichen oder eingetragene Warenzeichen der jeweiligen Inhaber. Die Wiedergabe von Marken, Produktnamen, Gebrauchsnamen, Handelsnamen, Warenbezeichnungen u.s.w. in diesem Werk berechtigt auch ohne besondere Kennzeichnung nicht zu der Annahme, dass solche Namen im Sinne der Warenzeichen- und Markenschutzgesetzgebung als frei zu betrachten waren und daher von jedermann benutzt werden durften. Bibliographic information published by the Deutsche Nationalbibliothek: The Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie; detailed bibliographic data are available in the Internet at http:IIdnb.d-nb.de. Any brand names and product names mentioned in this book are subject to trademark, brand or patent protection and are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders. The use of brand names, product names, common names, trade names, product descriptions etc. even without a particular marking in this works is in no way to be construed to mean that such names may be regarded as unrestricted in respect of trademark and brand protection legislation and could thus be used by anyone. Coverbild I Cover image: www.ingimage.com Verlag I Publisher: LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing ist ein Imprint der I is a trademark of OmniScriptum GmbH & Co. KG Heinrich-Bocking-Str. 6-8, 66121 Saarbrucken, Deutschland I Germany Email: [email protected] Herstellung: siehe letzte Seite I Printed at: see last page ISBN: 978-3-659-49535-9 Copyright © 2014 OmniScriptum GmbH & Co. KG Alle Rechte vorbehalten. I All rights reserved. Saarbrucken 2014 Acknowledgements ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I feel grateful that this study has been carried out within the framework of "Primula boveana Conservation Project (Assessment of the current conservation status of Primula boveana in St Katherine Protectorate, South Sinai, Egypt) and financially supported by “Rufford Foundation’’ (2013-2014). I would like to extend my thanks to all those who contributed time, suggestions and support during the planning, research and writing of this dissertation. I am personally indebted to: Eng. Mohamed Kotb General Manger of Saint Katherine protectorate for his honest support. Special thanks for fruitful advices from Prof. Dr. Townsend Peterson, Distinguished Professor, KU Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology. Deep thanks due to Prof. Dr. Francis Gilbert Professor in Faculty of Medicine & Health Sciences, School of Biology, University of Nottingham, UK for his continuous valuable advises during this work. Special thanks are due to my Team Eng. Ibrahim Elgamal, Mr. Gamal Elgohary, Mr. Mohamed Kamel and Mr. Amir Shalof for their support and encouragement during this study. I would thank my parents, my wife my sweet daughter Laian, and my brother for their encouragement and fruitful support during this study. At the final, big thanks and much appreciated to all whose learn me the way for good thinking, working smart not hard inside, and outside Egypt. Deep thanks due to Prof. Dr. Moustafa Fouda the Minister Advisor on Biodiversity, Nature Conservation Sector, Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (EEAA) for his encouragement and total support during the hard times. Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgments Table of contents Map appendix Table appendix Figures appendix List of Abbreviation Executive Summary INTRODUCTION Target Species Overview Aim and Objectives Structure of the book References CHAPTER 1: GEOGRAPHICAL RANGE Introduction Terminology Methodology Results References CHAPTER 2: POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS Introduction Terminology Methodology Results References CHAPTER 3: HABITATS AND ECOLOGY Introduction Terminology Methodology Results References CHAPTER 4: THREATS Introduction Methodology Results References CHAPTER 5: RED LIST CATEGORY & CRITERIA Introduction I II II II II II 1 4 13 14 15 15 21 21 23 25 26 29 33 33 37 39 39 44 47 47 52 52 53 60 66 66 69 71 79 82 82 Table of Contents Terminology Methodology Results References CHAPTER 6: CONSERVATION ACTIONS & REQUIREMENTS Introduction Methodology Results References GENERAL DISCUSSION References CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDATIONS Conclusions Recommendations 84 91 95 97 98 98 105 105 117 120 127 130 130 132 Table of Contents MAPS APPENDIX Map1 Map2 Map3 Map4 Automated preliminary GIS analysis of Primula boveana geographical distribution. A- Extent Of Occurrence (EOO), and B- Area Of occupancy (AOO). Topographic map for P. boveana within SKP. a- Digital Elevation Model, and baspect ratios for the target species. Primula boveana population characteristics; a- population range, and bsubpopulation distribution. Climatic variables within SKP, 1- Annual Minimum Temperature, 2- Annual Maximum, and 3- Annual Precipitation. TABLE APPENDIX Table 1 Table 2 Table 3 Table 4 Table 5 Table 6 Table 7 Table 8 Table 9 Table 10 Table 11 Table 12 Table 13 Table 14 Table 15 Topographic variation among different P. boveana subpopulation. Morphological and reproductive characteristics among different P. boveana subpopulation. IUCN Habitats Classification Scheme for P. boveana. Soil properties variation among different P. boveana subpopulation. Vegetation characteristics of P. boveana within SKP. Threat Analysis (TA) for SKP vegetation and P. boveana as well. Different threats root causes, barriers and solutions. IUCN Threats Classification Scheme for P. boveana within SKP. Summary of the five criteria (A-E) used to evaluate if a taxon belongs in a threatened category (Critically Endangered, Endangered or Vulnerable). Data for criterion B: restricted range. Data for criterion C: small population size and continuing decline. Primula boveana Conservation Actions In- Place. Important Conservation Actions Needed for P. boveana conservation. Research needed for P. boveana conservation. Conservation requirements for better conservation program for P. boveana. FIGURES APPENDIX Figure 1 Morphological and reproductive characteristics of P. boveana, A- Seedling in wild, BNew adult generation (F), C- Mature plant, D- Flowering stage, E- Fruiting stage, and F- dead plant. Figure 2 Deterioration of Primula boveana population in the last five years in Shaq Mousa. Figure 3 Deterioration of Primula boveana population in the last ten years at Kahf Ekghola site. Figure 4 View of Shaq Elgragenia, A- Site view, and B- Subpopulation number 2 (S.G.2). Figure 5 View of Shaq Mosa, A-Subpopulation number 4 (S.M.1), and B- Subpopulation number 6 (S.M.3). Figure 6 View of Elgabal Elahmar. Figure 7 View of Kahf Elghola, A- Outside view, and B- inside view. Figure 8 View of Sad Abo Hebic Figure 9 Threats on Primula boveana, A- Pests, B- Floods, C- Tourism, and D- Drought. Figure10 Structure of the categories according to IUCN (2014). V Table of Contents LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 3D AOO BIOCLIM CBD CITES CR DBF DD DIVA EEAA EIA EN EOO EP EW EX FAO GEF GIS GPS GRID GSPC IBPGR IUCN LC MPCP MPs NE NT PAMU RSFD SIS SK City SKP SSC St TDA TIN UNDP UNEP USAID VU W. Wadi WGS84 WWF Three-dimensional space Area of Occupancy Bioclimatic Variables Convention on Biological Diversity Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species Critically Endangered Database file format Data Deficient Distance and Variance analysis Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency Environmental Impact Assessment Endangered Extent of Occurrence Egyptian Pound Extinct In the Wild Extinct Food and Agriculture Organization Global Environment Facility Geographical Information System Global Position System Global Resource Information Database Global Strategy for Plant Conservation International Board for Plant Genetic Resources International Union for Conservation of Nature Least Concern Medicinal Plants Conservation Project Medicinal Plants Not Evaluated Near Threatened St Katherine Protectorate Management Unit Range Size Frequency Distributions Species Information Service Saint Katherine City St Katherine Protectorate Species Survival Commission Saint General Authority for Tourism Development Triangulated Irregular Network United Nations Development Program United Nations Environment Programme US Agency for International Development Vulnerable Wadi Arabic word for Valley World Geodetic System 1984 World Bank/World Wildlife Fund V Executive Summary EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Primula boveana Decne. ex Duby (Primulaceae) is endemic plant species to the St Katherine Protectorate (SKP) in southern Sinai, Egypt. This species is severely threatened by both natural (aridity of the area) and human factors (scientific research). All these factors are pushing P. boveana to the brink of extinction. Because of this conditions, this study is aim to assess the current conservation status of this species according to IUCN criteria in order to produce a series of recommendations for conservation action. After analyzing the collected data about species geographical range, population Information, habitat and ecology, uses, threats, and conservation requirements we can summarize the results as fellow: Geographic Range: Primula boveana is endemic to SKP; it was recorded only inside the boundary of SKP; exactly, in five main very small localities (Shaq Elgragenia, Shaq Mousa, Elgabal Elahmar, Kahf Elghola, and Sad Abu Hebiq). Its estimated Extent Of Occurrence (EOO) found to be about 13 km² (12.7km2), and its estimated Area Of Occupancy (AOO) less than 1 km² (700m2) (less than 6km2 by IUCN criteria). It was observed that both EOO and AOO showed decline with time. P. boveana was recorded as abundant in the past. SKP reports had shown also that this species record in the past at the St. Catherine Mountain and Elgalt Elazrak area. A narrow altitudinal range was recorded for this species ranging between 1745 and 2210 m. It was observed that population size positively affected by elevation. Results also shown that target species highly located in slopes that face northeast (78%) and east aspect (22%) with slope degree ranging from 55°to 90°. Population Information: Most of the Primula boveana subpopulations are small, fragmented, with individual plants occurring sporadically in space in the little groups where the soil is wet. The number of mature plants declined from ‘abundant’ in 1832, almost 2000 in 1991, and 336 in 2007: In 2014, the total global population size was recorded at about 1010 individuals during our the last survey, but only 165 individuals were mature (about 16% of the total population). Shaq Mousa was the highest in total number of individuals, it containing 733 individuals (72.6%), 74 of them are mature. Only four immature individuals were recorded at Kahf Elghola (0.3%). There are nine very small but clearly separate subpopulations, but only seven of them contain between 3 and 65 mature individuals. There are no records for mature individuals in Kahf Elghola and Sad Abu Hebiq. The largest Number of mature plants was recorded in one of the three subpopulation recorded in Shaq Mousa and was 65 with percentage reach to 46% of the total individuals recorded in this subpopulation. During the last 10 years, these subpopulations showed large changes in the total number of individuals, cover, and density. There was a peak observed between 2008 to 2010 (345 to 360 mature individuals) but now (2012-2014) the 1 Executive Summary population is at its lowest observed number: it may be that the species undergoes severe fluctuations. The population decline was also recorded, thirty individuals were recorded at the Kahf Elghoula subpopulation in 2009, but only four immature seedlings in 2014. Forty-one individuals were recorded in Sad Abu Hebiq subpopulation in 2007, but only six immature seedlings in 2014. Drought is the main limiting factor for this species, and because the plant is distributed within such a very small-restricted area, the entire population will feel the effect of this threat: thus, they are all effectively in one location. Habitats and Ecology: According to IUCN Habitats Classification Scheme, this species belong to rocky habitat (mountain peaks), is restricted to Montane wadis fed by melted snow and distributed in moist ground in the vicinity of wells and sheltered mountain areas, especially cliffs and caves with steep granite slopes. The cold winter climate (minimum temperature can reach -10ºC) and cool summers (maximum about 29ºC) of the high elevations of Mt. St. Katherine is the coolest on the peninsula. The arid climate has a mean annual rainfall of about 37.5 mm (between 1971-2014), some in the form of snow, but there is great inter-annual variation with up to 300 mm in any one year, usually between October and May. Relative humidity is low, ranging from 10-35% (data for 2005-2014), and potential evaporation rates are very high, in excess of 20 mm/day during August. P. boveana grows in loamy sandy soil with average pH 8.2, water content 0.7 and organic matter 3.5%. Vegetation parameters showed variation among different subpopulation; Density varied and ranged from 0.16 (Kahf Elghola) to 22 (subpopulation 1 in Shaq Mousa). Abundant ranged also from 4 (Kahf Elghola) to 535 (subpopulation 1 in Shaq Mousa). Cover ranged from 0.01 (Kahf Elghola) to 1.8 (subpopulation 2 in Shaq Mousa). Size Index ranged from 4.5 (Kahf Elghola) to 26 (Elgabal Elahmar). Because of its restricted micro-habitat, P. boveana is the dominant species in most sites, but its associated species are Adiantum capillus-veneris L., Mentha longifolia (L.) Huds., Hypericum sinaicum Boiss. and Juncus rigidus Desf. Primula boveana is a perennial herb with stems up to 50 cm long. The grayish-green leaves are spear-shaped, up to 20 cm long in a rosette. It bears several whorls of long-tubed, golden-yellow, scented flowers in late spring, and reproduction is by seed in late summer. Field observation showed that P. boveana starting the flowering season from the early of March and finish at the end of July when the fruiting season started in July and finish at the end of September and this agrees with. It was observed that Shaq Mousa contains the highest values in most variables (Population size, mature individuals, density, abundance, and cover); this may be explained as this site owning the best preferable suitable conditions for species to grow and distribute. Use and Trade: The species is not commercially or traditionally used in Sinai, but it has been collected for pharmacological testing by various scientific research centers. 2 Executive Summary Threats: Because of climate change, the wild population of this species could be in extreme danger in the relatively near future. The most important natural threats are the long-lasting droughts, the very scarce irregular precipitation during the year, the fragmentation inherent to its habitat, and the possibility that rare floods may cause harm such as uprooting (5% loss observed). Apart from climate change, the most important human impacts are reductions in water availability caused by collection for human consumption from the nearby areas, insect pests that eat the vegetative parts and may cause reductions in plant vigor (observed), and a species of ant that collects the seeds, perhaps causing reductions in the reproductive rate. Former studies found that species subpopulations have very low genetic variation among individuals within them, and gene flow between them must be extremely low or actually zero: conversely, genetic differentiation among the subpopulations is high. It may self-fertilize most of the time, apparently with little or no detrimental effects. Probably deleterious alleles have been purged a long time ago, making inbreeding depression, possibly not a major problem today, although possibly restricting its ability to evolve in response to environmental change. Conservation requirements: The entire world distribution of Primula boveana is inside the St. Katherine Protectorate. Six from the nine subpopulations are already protected by fenced enclosures, and regular monitoring by SKP rangers takes place every two years to detect the effect of this protection on population trends. On average 48 checks are made every year to keep a watch on the current situation for the plant and its habitat, and to record any detrimental activities. Funded by UNEP, the Medicinal Plants Conservation Project tried to conserve some important species, P. boveana among them, using cultivation inside greenhouses as well as storing its seeds for future use. Studies were initiated of its ecological, morphological and reproductive ecology, and the threats to its existence. Much more is urgently needed, however. Red List Category & Criteria: After analyzing the data above, we can say that P. boveana qualifies as Critically Endangered (CR) because it is endemic to a tiny area (EOO 13 km², AOO <6 km²) of the high mountain area of the St. Katherine Protectorate in South Sinai, Egypt. The total population size of mature individuals is less than 200, distributed among nine subpopulations. Because the main threat is drought and climate change, effectively there is only one location. There is a continuing decline in habitat quality for this species, with evidence of declines in subpopulation numbers as well as strong fluctuations through time. Climate change is projected to further reduce the available habitat of this high-elevation specialist. Species recovery is highly recommended through In situ and ex situ technics. Enforce legislation and raising awareness are urgently needed. 3 Introduction INTRODUCT TION Biodiversity is an abbreviated form of biological diversity and refers to living things on the earth. Plants are an important resource and have immense impact on ecosystems and have a vital role in socioeconomic conditions of the people. Plant diversity and ecological characteristics are important in term of land degradation and erosion (Ahmad et al. 2010, Bocuk et al. 2009). Plants are universally recognized as a vital component of biodiversity and global sustainability. For example, plants provide food, fiber, fuel, shelter, medicine. Healthy ecosystems based on plant diversity provide the conditions and processes that sustain life and are essential to the wellbeing and livelihoods of all humankind (Wilson, 1992). It is clear that the loss of biodiversity has serious economic and social costs. The genes, species, ecosystems and human knowledge that are being lost represent a living library of options available for adapting to local and global change (UNEP, 1995). Environmental deterioration in arid ecosystems due to unmanaged human activities including harvesting of vegetation for fuel and medicine, overgrazing, urbanization and quarrying is evident in a decrease of plant cover, deterioration of soil productivity, and aggravation of soil erosion (Batanouny, 1983). Damage to vegetation and the soil surface and in arid lands is not easily repaired (Milton et al. 1994). An accurate picture of the status of plants and the trends that are impacting on them is difficult to determine. Indeed, we do not yet know the exact number of plant species in the world (estimated currently at 370,000 known species). However, it is predicted that as many as two-thirds of the world’s plant species are in danger of extinction in nature during the course of the 21st century (The Gran Canaria Declaration, 1999). Extinction and declines in plant diversity are due to a range of factors, including population growth, high rates of habitat modification and deforestation, over-exploitation, the spread of invasive alien species, pollution and climate change. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment noted that approximately 60% of the ecosystem services evaluated are being degraded or used unsustainably (www.milleniumassessment.org). The degradation of ecosystem services often causes significant harm to human well-being and represents a loss of a natural asset or wealth of a country. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species (henceforth ‘Red List’), produced by the Species Survival Commission (SSC) of the World Conservation Union (IUCN; http://www.iucn.org), highlights species that are at the greatest risk of extinction and promotes their conservation by ‘concentrating minds on true priorities’ (Collar and Andrew 1988). The dominant method for assessment, particularly at the global level, has been the IUCN Red List process. However, it is unlikely that the target can be reached using this process alone, and hence it should be stressed that it is a 4 Introduction preliminary assessment that is called for, and that this need not be a full Red List assessment (CBD, 2009). In the last decade, there has been a gradual increase in the number of species included in the IUCN Red List at a global level. However, given an estimate of approximately 370,000 flowering plants, the global assessments still only include 3-4% of plant species. More encouraging progress has occurred at a national level. During the consultation on this target, 52% of countries indicated that they had completed some form of Red List assessment (CBD, 2009). The utility of the Red List as a conservation tool derives not only from the classification of each species into a category of threat, but also for the wealth of data, collected to support these assessments, that are published online in a searchable format (IUCN, 2004). Submissions to the Red List now require the rationale for listing, supported by data on range size, population size and trend, distribution, habitat preferences, altitude, threats and conservation actions in place or needed. Many of these parameters are coded in standardized ‘authority files’ that enable comparative analyses across taxa (IUCN, 2004). The Red List data are a source of information that is essential to guide conservation efforts focused on species. Threat categorizations themselves are key to guiding priorities for conservation investment among species (Collar, 1996), albeit necessarily along with other information, such as cost and feasibility (Possingham, 2002, Mace and Lande 1991). The assessments also produce a series of recommendations for conservation action (BirdLife International, 2004). When the environmental factor changes beyond a certain level; plants try to adapt. Adaptation is any morphological, anatomical, physiological or behavioural feature, which favour results from some environmental pressure to increase the ability of an organism under changing environment and favour the success of an organism in a given environmental condition. A given population shows different levels of tolerance to a given limiting factor over its geographic distribution. Such locally adapted populations are called ecotypes, which may have developed due to genetic changes resulting in different responses to varying environment (Agrawal, 2005). An important consequence of the sedentary lifestyle of plants is that they cannot escape from the environment in which they grow or from any changes in this environment. To cope with this, many plants are able to alter one or more morphological characters in response to both abiotic (e.g., climate and weather) and biotic (e.g., grazing and competition) factors of the environment with a potential effect on resource acquisition. For example, leaf size and leaf area of many alpine plants change with altitude (Meinzer et al., 1985; Ko¨rner et al., 1989; Galal, 2011 and Omar et al., 2012), and some arctic plants may produce more or larger leaves during warmer summers than during colder ones (Havstro¨m et al., 1995; Stenstro¨m and Jo´nsdo´ttir, 1997). Knowledge of how ecologically important morphological characters vary within the distributional range of plant species, as well as the underlying control 5 Introduction mechanisms for such variation, is essential to understand how the plants may respond to environmental change (Stenstro¨m et al., 2002). Knowledge of reproduction is crucial to our understanding of the causes of rarity and for conservation of rare plant taxa (Kruckeberg and Rabinowitz 1985). Herbaceous perennials that do not reproduce vegetatively depend on seeds to recruit new individuals into populations. In order for new plants to establish in a population, flowers must be pollinated to form fruits, ovules must be fertilized, sustained with nutrients, and escape predation to form viable seeds, and seeds must be dispersed to suitable substrates for growth, where they must germinate. Any weak link or break in this chain of events curtails a plant’s ability to reproduce and, if constant over space and time, may contribute to a species’ rarity and impede its conservation. Many workers have investigated single or combined components of the reproductive ecology of rare plants, such as flowering frequency and vegetative reproduction seed germination (Jacobs, 1993; Clark et al., 1997; Florance, 1997), breeding system and germination (Clampitt, 1987; Menges, 1995), and seed production and predation (Menges et al., 1986). Reinforcement of wild plant populations using individuals raised ex-situ is considered a valid means of reducing the risk of extinction of threatened species or populations (Bowes, 1999). If plants are multiplied from seed the genetic diversity of local ecotypes is maximized (Fay, 1992). However, each species has particular requirements for seed germination as a result of adaptive radiation into patchy and changing environments (Schu¨tz and Milberg 1997). Thus, although propagation from seed is inexpensive and usually effective, germination requirements for native species are often unknown, particularly for rare and/or endemic species of which material is more difficult to obtain. A dormant seed is one that is unable to germinate in a specified period under a combination of environmental factors that are normally suitable for the germination of the non-dormant seed (Baskin and Baskin 2004). Seed dormancy is a temporary failure of a mature viable seed to germinate under environmental conditions that would normally favour germination (Li and Foley, 1997). Plants have evolved several dormancy mechanisms to optimize the time of germination (Jones, 1999), seed dormancy enhances survival (Foley, 2001). Since it is a physiological adaptation to environmental heterogeneity, seed dormancy is a primary factor that influences natural population dynamics (Bewley and Black 1994). The conservation of ecosystems and natural habitats and the maintenance and recovery of viable populations of species in their natural surroundings and, in the case of domesticated or cultivated species, in the surroundings where they have developed their distinctive properties is the standard definition for in-situ conservation (CBD, 1992). In-situ conservation is one of two basic conservation strategies, alongside ex-situ conservation. Article 8 of the CBD specifies in-situ conservation as the primary conservation 6 Introduction strategy, and states that ex-situ measures should play a supportive role to reach conservation targets. In-situ conservation aims to enable biodiversity to maintain itself within the context of the ecosystem in which it is found In-situ management approaches can either be targeted at populations of selected species (species centred) or whole ecosystems (ecosystem-based) (Heywood and Dulloo 2005). Both approaches follow the same purpose: To enable biodiversity to maintain itself within the context of the ecosystem in which it has been found, i.e. to enable a species population to self-replicate and maintain its potential for continued evolution (BGCI, 2012). This requires conservation of the components of the natural system (populations, species, communities and biophysical systems) as well as the ecological and evolutionary processes occurring within that system. Conservation measures are aimed at the surroundings where a target-species developed its distinctive properties. This could be a natural habitat, or an environment heavily modified by human activity. Many scientists and conservationists feel that until methods are available to discern easily which of the millions of species and varieties will have economic value, in-situ conservation through the protection of natural areas should be the primary means for the maintenance of these resources. However, a rigid preservation approach is virtually impossible to implement and even less likely to be maintained over time. Considering trends in population growth and the urgency of economic development--especially in the developing countries--a more appropriate response would be to pursue proactive alternatives to high-impact development activities, and to implement carefully formulated strategies for in-situ methods that would include protected areas in the development mix (William et al. 1995). In-situ Conservation is usually the preferred conservation strategy for capturing and conserving Medicinal Plant pockets in their natural habitats. Stress is laid on identification of Medicinal Plant areas having rich biodiversity of genetic resources that have priority, usually at the species level on the basis of present or potential socio-economic value of the species and their conservation status in the ecosystem along with group of its associate species (Punjoo, 1993). The area-specific action plan and networking of natural sites has to be considered the most important aspects of in-situ conservation activities. The ecological requirement of many of the species is complex. Hence moving them out of their own area of comfort to new area may sometime prove counterproductive. Hence by improving the protection, removing all kind of threats is one of the important steps towards in-situ conservation. Conservation units are not kept too small because this will cause continuous loss of genetic diversity by the effects of genetic drift and increased inbreeding. Considering this, the area has to be large enough for maintaining the genetic integrity of the original population and for generating enough seed production (Punjoo, 1993). 7 Introduction Traditionally, protected areas have been seen as the cornerstone of insitu conservation. Conservation approaches that are more adaptable to individual situations and applicable beyond protected areas, are being increasingly applied (Heywood and Dulloo 2005). Protected areas are the cornerstone of in-situ conservation, as is outlined in Article 8 of the CBD. A protected area network may contribute to conservation targets through the maintenance of target species and their habitats, as well as the conservation of natural or semi-natural ecosystems. There is a however growing awareness of the importance of extending in-situ conservation beyond protected areas (Newmark, 2008, Primack, 2012). The socioeconomic and political context around a threatened habitat may prevent the establishment or success of a protected area, and the development of alternative in-situ conservation management approaches may prove more useful in these situations (Cinner et al. 2012). Many of the problems of conservation actions and policies are related to conflicts between actions and processes occurring at different scales. Such is the case of the time periods needed to investigate the life history of an endangered species, or to implement a species recovery plan with regard to the terms of research funding programmes, or conservation actions of the administration, which are tightly dependent on political terms of office (Heywood and Iriondo, 2003). In a similar way, management and economic considerations often restrict the size of protected areas or restoration projects when these should be much larger if purely biological considerations were taken into account (Heywood and Iriondo, 2003). It is widely accepted today that the primary strategy for nature conservation is the establishment and maintenance of a system or network of protected areas. But as Huntley (1999) points out, in a changing world this is a necessary but not sufficient condition of the successful conservation of biodiversity. Some conservationists believe that efforts to expand and strengthen the global system of protected areas should be redoubled and at the same time dismiss the whole concept of sustainable development of resources as a misguided effort (Brandon, 1997; Kramer et al., 1997; Soule´ and Sanjayan, 1998). Conservation planning is also essential for effective conservation of plant genetic resources hotspots. Thus, Maxted (2003) indicates ways for efficient, active conservation of plant genetic resources in European protected areas and for identifying gaps in the in situ conservation of key resources for Europe. Decision making is another element, inherent in all stages and areas of conservation, which is directly related to the cost-efficiency of the process (Wolfson et al., 1996). It can be difficult to determine which areas to restore, what species and/or vegetation communities to target in restoration programs, and what threatening processes need to be mitigated. According to De la Cruz- Rot (2001), focusing on the community level can help fill the gap between species 8 Introduction and ecosystem approaches to plant conservation. Plant communities are in fact basic components of the landscape and their extent and arrangement has consequences both for species survival and for ecosystem processes (Heywood and Iriondo, 2003). The Sinai Peninsular extends over 61,000km2: it forms a land bridge between Africa and Asia and its flora and fauna have been influenced by both continental masses. Four phytogeographic regions meet and overlap in Sinai; of these the Saharo-Arabian (desert vegetation) and the Irano-Turanian (steppe vegetation) largely characterise the central mountain block, which covers most of the Sinai south of latitude 29o N. and contains the St Katherine Protectorate. This South Sinai massif is an isolated mountainous block composed largely of crystalline rocks and is geologically related to the Precambrian African plate and the Arabian Shield. The Gulfs of Aqaba and Suez form effective ecological barriers. The crystalline massif is very rough country characterised by the highest mountains in Egypt, a dense wadi system and an arid climate. The central higher mountains constituting the Protectorate form an island of Central Asian steppe vegetation along with Irano-Turanian biota. Sinai’s endemic species are largely restricted to this “island” together with relict populations of Palaearctic and Oriental species (SKP Management Plan 2003). In 1996, Prime Ministerial Decree No. 904 formally declared the St Katherine Protectorate; full protected-area status was given to approximately 4,350km² of largely mountainous terrain in South Sinai. The area includes the highest peaks in Egypt and contains a unique assemblage of natural resources, notably high altitude ecosystems with surprisingly diverse fauna and flora and with a significant proportion of endemic species. The Protectorate has enormous national and international significance but its natural resources and cultural heritage had been placed at risk of serious damage from unsustainable development pressure. The St Katherine Protectorate abuts the Ras Mohammed National Park and the Nabq and Abu Galum Managed Resource Areas along the Gulf of Aqaba. Although the coastal areas are the main attractions for mass tourism development, the St Katherine area is attracting an increasing numbers of visitors (SKP Management Plan 2003). The St Katherine Protectorate is an area of great biological interest; it has been recognized by IUCN, as one of the most important regions for flora diversity in the Middle East. It contains about 30% of Egypt's endemic flora and a very high proportion of Egypt's endemic fauna, including butterflies. The dominant flora is that of montane vegetation thinly scattered over the betterwatered mountain peak system and largely made up of Irano-Turanian elements. Twelve main plant communities are recognised dominated by various dwarf shrubs that reflect differences in habitat conditions such as altitude, slope, exposure, geology etc. Serphedium herba-alba is the most prominent floral component of the higher altitude landscapes and is the 9 Introduction dominant or co-dominant in almost all communities. Acacia is the physiognomically dominant species of lower altitude wadi communities (SKP Management Plan 2003, Hatab 2009, Omar, 2013). Due to the low rainfall and poor soil development on the extensive bare rock surfaces plant life is largely restricted to the drainage channel (wadi) systems drainage network; as rainfall often results in torrential floods, plant life is more common on alluvium terraces bordering channels. The main threats discerned for vegetation are localised overgrazing, uprooting of plants for fuel or camel fodder and over collection of medicinal and herbal plants for sale. The number of wild plant species requiring specific conservation efforts is far too numerous to include all of them in conservation programmes (Sutherland 2001). Even within the main groups of target species of economic importance (wild relatives, forest tree species, medicinal and aromatic plants), the number of species to consider is greatly in excess of any reasonable expectation of conservation possibilities. If a conservation strategy depends, as it often will, on the results of ecogeographical surveys and analyses of genetic and biological variation, all of which require considerable investments of time, money and expertise, not to mention any management interventions and monitoring, then effective action will not be possible for most of the species identified. It follows that the selection of target (candidate) species is a key element of any in situ programme. A useful review of the principles of priority setting in species conservation, although in an ornithological context, is included in a recent volume on conserving bird biodiversity (Mace and Collar 2002). Some general principles for the selection of target species are widely applied (Maxted et al. 1997d) (see Box 1). In addition there are special factors that may have to be taken into account in particular cases or types of plant (for example crop wild relatives, forest species, medicinal plants, ornamental plants etc.) and these may affect the selection process, or may be applicable only at a later stage, such as the extent of management needed. The main factors are: Coverage and distribution: The coverage and distribution of the target species in time and space is an important factor to consider. The degree of coverage or the percentage of the total cover occupied by the species and their populations as well as their general distribution pattern (widespread, disjunct populations, narrow localized species, metapopulations) will affect the genetic architecture, population structure and the amount of variation. Existence of variation: The existence of different types of variation (ecotypic/genecological, chemical and clinal) and how they are distributed will also be another major consideration to take into account. Special desirable features such as chemical variation (Heywood, 2002) would need to be covered in the populations selected in the case of medicinal and aromatic plants. 10 Introduction Threat to genetic erosion: The degree to which species and their populations are under threat from genetic contamination might well affect their genetic integrity and would call for special consideration in the management of in situ populations. The competitive ability of the species to withstand invasion of their habitat by alien species may affect the degree of management intervention required and their capacity for natural regeneration. Box 1: General criteria for selecting target species • Actual or potential economic use • Crop relative • Medicinal or aromatic herb, shrub, tree • Forest timber tree • Fruit tree or shrub • Ornamental herb tree, shrub • Agroforestry species • Forage species • Species used for habitat restoration or rehabilitation • Other • Current conservation status: the degree and nature of threats • Endemism • Restricted range • Recent rate of decline • Rarity • Threat of genetic erosion • Ecogeographical distinctiveness • Biological characteristics and importance • Cultural importance or of high social demand • Occurrence and frequency in current Protected Areas • Status of protection • Ethical considerations • Taxonomic or phyletic uniqueness or isolation • Focal or keystone status/ecosystem role • Indicator species • Umbrella species • Keystone • Flagship Modified and amplified from Maxted and Hawkes (1997), Mace and Collar (2002). Extent of utilization: The extent of utilization of the target species; whether it forms part of provenance and breeding programmes or is simply harvested from the wild or used by local communities, would also be important factors to take into account. 11 Introduction Biological characteristics: The successful in situ conservation of target species will depend a to a large extent on how much is already known about the species’ biological characteristics (e.g. taxonomy, breeding system) and whether the species is unambiguously delimited, readily available and easy to locate and sample. Pragmatic decisions based on the above will be required in order to ensure the likelihood of conservation success and sustainability. Conservation costs: The relative monetary costs of conservation actions would be yet another key determinant. Other common criteria for selecting species include their endangerment status, the extent and pattern of their distribution, and their occurrence in protected areas or centres of plant diversity. Endangered species are a widely accepted focus for conservation attention both nationally and globally and are frequently afforded high priority. Lists of endangered species are compiled with little regard to the economic, social or scientific importance or the biology of the species involved. It has been pointed out that in the USA many ‘endangered’ species are peripheral populations if the whole range of the species is taken into account (Godown and Peterson 2000; Peterson 2001) and this may well be true of other countries as well. If, however, the species are endemic to the country concerned then there is much greater justification to choose them as targets for conservation. The first step in any conservation programme for target species is to establish a baseline of available information before other activities are initiated. The process of gathering this information is sometimes referred to as an ecogeographical survey or study (Maxted et al. 1995) and is considered central to all issues of conservation and a key requirement in the development of any conservation strategy (Ouédraogo 1997). Choosing species to include in a conservation programme requires that adequate information is available to make proper decisions and set the right priorities. A word of caution, however, is needed. It is important to gather as much information as possible from as many sources as possible, but the validity of this information should then be double-checked (USDA 1999). Once the knowledge baseline has been established, this will allow gaps in the knowledge to be identified and will inform the implementation of the subsequent steps. The concept of ecogeographical surveys gained wide currency after the publication of a booklet Ecogeographical Surveying and In Situ Conservation of Crop Relatives by IBPGR (later IPGRI) in 1985. The term applies to various systems of gathering and collating information on the taxonomy, geographical distribution, ecological characteristics, genetic diversity, and ethnobiology of the target species, as well as the geography, climate and the human setting of the regions under study (Guarino et al. 2002). Ecogeographical information can be used to locate significant genetic material and representative populations can be monitored to guide the selection of representative samples for conservation and utilization (IBPGR 1985). 12 Introduction TARGET SPECIES: Scientific name: Primula boveana Decne. ex Duby, 1844 Synonym/s: Primula verticillata subsp. boveana (Dcne.) W.W. Sm. & Forrest English Common Name: Sinai primrose Other Common Names: Khass El-Gabal (Arabic), Sahseeh, Hekp Elqualah (Arabic) Higher Taxonomy: Kingdom: Plantae Phylum: Tracheophyta Class: Magnoliopsida Order: Ericales Family: Primulaceae Taxonomic Notes: Primula boveana is a small plant, restricted to the environs of Mount Sinai (Egypt). It was named in honour of Nicolas Bové (1812-1841), one of the first botanists to study the flora of the Sinai Peninsula. The type was collected near Mt. St. Catherine by N. Bové in 1832. It belongs to the subgenus Sphondylia (Duby) Rupr. which, together with its sister-group Dionysia Fenzl (previously regarded as a separate genus), forms a well-supported clade within Primula (Mast et al. 2001, 2006). All the species included in Sphondylia, as well as some Dionysia, are rare, narrow endemics distributed in wet refugia in arid areas from northeastern Africa to Southwest Asia. Richards & Eveleigh (2012) consider that Primula involucrata Sweet, 1839 is the valid name for this taxon; this is a catalogue name in Curtis’ Botanical Magazine referring to a figure and description of a plant called P.verticillata, but actually from Egypt and therefore clearly P.boveana. Primula section Sphondylia (Duby) Rupr. comprises eight species with patchy distributions endemic to mountainous regions from the West Himalayas to Ethiopia, including Afghanistan, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Yemen (Wendelbo, 1961, Richards, 2003). This section is remarkable for its intra- and inter-specific variation of floral morphologies, which is not as marked in other sections of the genus (Al Wadi and Richards 1993, Richards, 2003). Primula boveana Decne. ex Duby is the only species of genus Primula in Egyptian flora. It is endemic to the SKP in South Sinai, Egypt, and has high medical importance because of substances extracted from its roots. This species is severely threatened by both natural (aridity of 13 Introduction the area) and human factors (scientific research). All these factors are pushing P. boveana to the brink of extinction. This species is restricted to Montane wadis fed by melted snow and distributed in moist ground in the vicinity of wells and sheltered mountain areas. Because of climate change, the wild population of this species could be in extreme danger in the near future. Due to its geographic isolation, at least 1,400 km away from other species from section Sphondylia, P. boveana is a key element for understanding the biogeographic connections within the genus Primula. Population sizes are very small, although this species is known to have been more abundant in the recent past (Al Wadi, 1993, Richards, 2003). Such a narrow distribution and scarcity prompted (Richards, 2003) to refer to P. boveana as ‘‘one of the rarest plant species’’. The IUCN lists it under the category deficient data (Garcı´a et al. 2010). Due to its extreme rarity, P. boveana is considered as a priority target for conservation at a national level in Egypt (Radford et al. 2011). AIM AND OBJECTIVES: This study has been carried out within the framework of "Primula boveana conservation Project (Assessment of the current conservation status of Primula boveana in St Katherine Protectorate, South Sinai, Egypt) funded by "Rufford Foundation’’. The study is aimed to assess the current conservation status of this species according to IUCN criteria in order to produce a series of recommendations for conservation action. In addition, we will try to enhance the understanding about the IUCN Red List Category & Criteria by using this species as a case study. The objectives of this study can be summaries as fellow: 1. Assessment of the conservation status of P. boveana according to IUCN criteria. A detailed field survey will take place to define the geographical range and ecological status of P. boveana populations. Every site will be mapped to characterize the extent of occurrence, area of occupancy, mature individuals, and population size. We will determine the vegetation structure, species diversity, and cover, in areas where the plant does, and does not, grow. The soil environment will similarly be measured for physical and chemical characteristics to determine what conditions are needed for P. boveana to grow. Finally the general environment will be characterized (elevation, aspect, and slope), climatic conditions for P. boveana in order to detect the best habitat preference for this species within the study area. 2. A detailed study of size and reproduction of P. boveana. Plant traits within and among populations will be measured, including 14 Introduction morphological aspects (leaf area, leaf shape, internode length, leaves per plant, branches per plant) and reproductive aspects (number of flowering stems, number of flowers, number of seeds). 3. Identify and rank the various threats to the plant, and try to identify their underlying root causes and barriers to solutions. During the surveys all factors within the field that may threaten the plant will be recorded. We will gather information from the local community and from stakeholders such as the medicinal plant collectors regarding local knowledge, attitudes, and practices in relation to P. boveana. 4. Clearly identify conservation actions in place or for future, priorities, research needs, suitable habitats for growth and suggest appropriate strategies for P. boveana conservation by in situ and ex situ techniques. 5. Clearly identification of some IUCN Red List terms highly needed when conservation assessments take place like: Location, Extent Of Occurrence (EOO), Area Of Occupancy (AOO), Continuing Decline, Extreme Fluctuations, Population, Subpopulations, Mature Individuals, Population Size, Reduction, Severely Fragmented, Quantitative Analysis, Generation Length, Threats Classification Scheme, Critically Endangered, Endangered, and Vulnerable, Red List Category & Criteria, etc. STRUCTURE OF THIS BOOK: In this book, we will focus in some terms related to IUCN Red List categories and criteria through detailed conservation assessment for Primula boveana. We will study the geographical range (chapter 1), population characteristics (chapter 2), Habitat and ecology (chapter 3), Threats (chapter 4), red list category and criteria (chapter 5), and conservation requirements and actions (chapter 6). General discussion, conclusion, and recommendations will be followed. REFERENCES: Agrawal, A. 2005. 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Ex-situ and In-situ Conservation of Medicinal plants with particular reference to Jammu and Kashmir State, Conservator of Forests, South circle, J&K Forest Department, pp. 17. Radford E.A., Catullo, G., and de Montmollin, B. 2011. Important plant areas of the south and east Mediterranean region: priority sites for conservation. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Malaga, Spain. Richards AJ & Eveleigh P 2012. Four name changes in Primula. The Alpine Gardener 80(2): 138-9 Richards, A.J. 2003. Primula, 2nd ed. Timber Press, Portland, Oregon, USA. Schu¨tz, W., Milberg, P., (1997. Seed dormancy in Carex canescens: regional differences and ecological consequences. Oikos 78, 420–428. Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2009. The Convention on Biological Diversity Plant Conservation Report: A Review of Progress in Implementing the Global Strategy of Plant Conservation (GSPC), 48 pp. Soule´, M.E. and Sanjayan, M.A. 1998. Conservation targets: do they help? Science, 279: 2060–2061. Stenstro¨m, A., and Jo´nsdo´ttir, I.S. 1997. Responses of the clonal sedge, Carex bigelowii, to two seasons of simulated climate change. Global Change Biology, 3: 89–96. 19 Introduction Stenstro¨m, A., Jo´nsdo´ttir, I.S. and Augner, M. 2002. Genetic and environmental effects on morphology in clonal sedges in the Eurasian arctic. American Journal of Botany, 89(9): 1410–1421. Sutherland, W.J. 2001. The Conservation Handbook: Research management and policy. Blackwell Science, Oxford, UK. The Gran Canaria Declaration, 1999. Calling for a Global Program for Plant Conservation. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). 1995. Global Biodiversity Assessment. Cambridge University Press. New York, NY. USDA 1999. The American Wild Relatives of Crops: In situ conservation guidelines. In Situ Subcommittee, Plant Germplasm Operations Committee. USDA, Beltsville, MD, USA. Wendelbo, P. 1961. Studies in Primulaceae. II. An account of Primula subgenus Sphondylia with review of the sections of the genus. Aarbok for Universitet I Bergen. Mat- Naturv Serie 11:1–49. William, J., Saunier, P.R.E., and Meganck, R. A. 1995. Chapter 2 - In-situ conservation of biodiversity, Conservation of Biodiversity and the New Regional Planning, pp. 150. Wilson, E.O. 1992. The Diversity of Life. Penguin, London, UK. 432 pp. 20 Geographical Range Chapter 1 Geographical Range INTRODUCTION: There are a number of theoretical and practical reasons to quantify spatial pattern in species’ ranges and their borders (Hoffmann and Blows 1994, Gaston 2003).With increasing concern about species conservation, it is important to obtain quantitative descriptions of species’ range structure and extent of geographical ranges of species to provide accurate information for management purposes (Lawton 1993). The characterization of species’ ranges is, however, complicated by their spatial and temporal dynamics. For many species, ranges may expand in some geographical regions while contracting in others (Hengeveld 1990). Hence, descriptions of species range boundaries require not only that borders are determined accurately at any given point in time, but also that these limits can be characterized in terms of their shape and width (Maurer 1994, 1999, Curnutt et al. 1996, Maurer and Nott 1998, Gaston 2003). Furthermore, it is important to identify the internal distribution of abundance within range boundaries. Indeed, large variations in abundance result in gaps within a species’ range that can create internal borders (Brown et al. 1996). Hence the quantification of spatial pattern of the outer species’ border limit, as well as within-species range boundaries, may help to resolve outstanding questions in spatial ecology such as the importance of source and sink demography (Pulliam 1988). The uneven distribution of diversity is one of the most prominent patterns in ecology and has attracted massive scientific interest since the beginnings of biogeography (Humboldt 1808). The debate about possible determinants of large-scale patterns of species richness has led to a plethora of hypotheses during the last decades and even recently further hypotheses have been proposed (Fischer 1960, Pianka 1966, MacArthur 1972, Jansson and Dynesius 2002, Hawkins et al. 2003b, Willig et al. 2003). Searching for determinants of large-scale patterns of diversity, conventional approaches analyse species richness maps dependent on environmental variables, e.g. temperature, precipitation, ambient energy, productivity, topographical complexity, or habitat heterogeneity (Rahbek and Graves 2001, Jetz and Rahbek 2002, Francis and Currie 2003, Hawkins et al. 2003a). The vast majority of studies uses species occurrence data in the form of range maps or museum records to document and analyse large-scale patterns of species richness and endemism (Rahbek and Graves 2001). Thus, geographic ranges of species are the basic unit of biogeography and one of the most prominent biogeographic features is that species differ in the size of their geographic ranges (Brown et al. 1996). Within a given assemblage of species most species tend to have relatively small ranges (Gaston 1994, 1998, Brown et al. 1996) and it has been argued that this 21 Geographical Range reflects one of the most fundamental ways of how species share space (Brown 1995). Differences in range size may reflect interspecific differences in ecological tolerance, dispersal ability, and evolutionary history (Pither 2003, Lloyd et al. 2003) or may reflect ecological traits associated with different lifeforms (Kelly 1996, Kessler 2002, Hunter 2003). Overall species richness patterns thus emerge from a complex spatial interaction of many species with small ranges and relatively few species with very large ranges. So far, relatively little attention has been paid to this issue. Since species richness maps emerge from superimposed range maps of individual species, exploring the influence of range size may substantially improve our understanding of large-scale diversity patterns. Consequences of the highly skewed range size frequency distributions (RSFD) on spatial patterns of species richness and on our perception of environmental determinants of species richness have so far been tested exclusively with vertebrates (Jetz and Rahbek 2002, Ruggiero and Kitzberger 2004, Lennon et al. 2004). Plants in general appear to be largely underrepresented in macroecological studies, because reliable distribution data especially for tropical families is insufficient. Sinai Peninsula has the geographical importance and uniqueness of being the meeting place of Asia and Africa. For this reason, its flora combines elements from these two continents, Saharo-Arabian, Irano-Turanian, Mediterranean and Sudanian elements (McGinnies et. al., 1968). The Saint Katherine region is situated in the southern part of Sinai and is a part of the upper Sinai massif. It is located between 33˚ 55' to 34˚ 30' East and 28°30' to 28° 35' North. Sinai Peninsula is a triangle plate au occupying the northeastern corner of Egypt. With its position at the northeast corner of Africa, Egypt forms a bridge between Asia and Africa. Sinai Peninsula is part of Asia; the rest of the country is part of Africa. It is also part of the Mediterranean Basin. Its base, is in the north along the Mediterranean Sea. The area of the Sinai Peninsula (61,000 km²) is about 6% of that of Egypt (Migahid and Ayyad, 1959). It is triangular in shape and is separated from the mainland of Egypt by the Suez Canal and the Gulf of Suez. It is continuous with the Asiatic continent for a distance of over 200 Km between Rafah on the Mediterranean Sea and Taba at the head of the Gulf of Aqaba. It is conventionally divided into two main parts. The southern part is one third of the Peninsula. The northern part is almost entirely covered by sedimentary rocks that are mostly composed of limestone, while in the southern part the basement rocks occupy more than 80% of the area and are mainly of granitic composition (SKP Management Plan 2003, Omar et al., 2012). Geologically, a complex of ancient crystalline rocks forms the Saint Katherine Protectorate with some rocks, such as the Feiran gneiss, dating back 1,100 million years. Grey granites dating back to 850 million years are among the oldest rocks while the more common rose granites are younger at about 600 million years old (Map 1). Ancient p i n k , w h i t e a n d yellow 22 Geographical Range sandstones, dating from the Permian to the Cretaceous period, skirt the crystalline rocks to the north and west of the Protectorate (SKP Management Plan 2003, Hatab, 2009 and Omar et al., 2012). The Protectorate contains some of the highest peaks in Egypt, including Gebel Katherina (Mount Saint Katherine) the country’s highest summit at 2642m, Gebel Umm Shaumar (2586m), Gebel El Thabt (2439m), Mt. Sinai (Gebel Musa) (2280m) and Gebel Serbal (2070m). These mountains are composed of rocks of various types, colors and ages; for instance Gebel Katherina is made of andesite porphyry, a volcanic rock about ten million years old. Neighboring mountains of Gebel Ferrah, Gebel Safsafa and Mount Sinai are formed from pink granite, a 580 million year old basement rock. However, Mount Sinai’s summit is made of more recent volcanic rock, again only about ten million years old (Omar et al., 2012). Over millions of years, massive tectonic forces have tilted and shattered the country rock causing volcanic eruptions. The dark veins, or dykes, which cut across mountains, sometimes running for several kilometers, are the intrusions of basalt (volcanic) rock into rock fractures and along lines of weakness. Particularly impressive dyke swarms can be seen along Wadi Feiran. The Bedouin often dig their wells in these dykes, as they tend to trap underground water (SKP Management Plan 2003, Hatab, 2009 and Omar et al., 2012). In this part, we will define in detail the geographical range of Primula boveana according to IUCN guidelines. Terminology in use according to IUCN 2014: Location: “The term ‘location’ defines a geographically or ecologically distinct area in which a single threatening event can rapidly affect all individuals of the taxon present. The size of the location depends on the area covered by the threatening event and may include part of one or many subpopulations. Where a taxon is affected by more than one threatening event, location should be defined by considering the most serious plausible threat.” (IUCN 2001, 2012b, and 2014). Extent Of Occurrence (EOO): Extent of occurrence is defined as "the area contained within the shortest continuous imaginary boundary which can be drawn to encompass all the known, inferred or projected sites of present occurrence of a taxon, excluding cases of vagrancy" (IUCN 2001, 2012b, 2014). Extent of occurrence (EOO) is a parameter that measures the spatial spread of the areas currently occupied by the taxon. The intent behind this parameter is to measure the degree to which risks from threatening factors are spread spatially across the taxon’s geographical distribution. It is not intended to be an estimate of the amount of occupied or potential habitat, or a general measure of the taxon’s range. Other, more restrictive definitions of “range” may be more appropriate for other purposes, such as 23 Geographical Range for planning conservation actions. Valid use of the criteria requires that EOO is estimated in a way that is consistent with the thresholds set therein. "Extent of occurrence can often be measured by a minimum convex polygon (the smallest polygon in which no internal angle exceeds 180 degrees and which contains all the sites of occurrence)” (IUCN 2001, 2012b, and 2014). The IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria state that EOO may exclude “discontinuities or disjunctions within the overall distribution of the taxa”. Area Of Occupancy (AOO): “Area of occupancy is defined as the area within its 'extent of occurrence', which is occupied by a taxon, excluding cases of vagrancy. The measure reflects the fact that a taxon will not usually occur throughout the area of its extent of occurrence, which may contain unsuitable or unoccupied habitats. In some cases, (e.g., irreplaceable colonial nesting sites, crucial feeding sites for migratory taxa) the area of occupancy is the smallest area essential at any stage to the survival of existing populations of a taxon. The size of the area of occupancy will be a function of the scale at which it is measured, and should be at a scale appropriate to relevant biological aspects of the taxon, the nature of threats and the available data. To avoid inconsistencies and bias in assessments caused by estimating area of occupancy at different scales, it may be necessary to standardize estimates by applying a scalecorrection factor. It is difficult to give strict guidance on how standardization should be done because different types of taxa have different scale-area relationships.” (IUCN 2001, 2012b, and 2014) Area of occupancy is included in the criteria for two main reasons. The first is to identify species with restricted spatial distribution and, thus usually with restricted habitat. These species are often habitat specialists. Species with a restricted habitat are considered to have an increased risk of extinction. Secondly, in many cases, AOO can be a useful proxy for population size, because there is generally a positive correlation between AOO and population size. The veracity of this relationship for any one species depends on variation in its population density. Suppose two species have the same EOO, but different values for AOO, perhaps because one has more specialized habitat requirements. For example, two species may be distributed across the same desert (hence EOO is the same), but one is wide ranging throughout (large AOO) while the other is restricted to oases (small AOO). The species with the smaller AOO may have a higher risk of extinction because threats to its restricted habitat (e.g., degradation of oases) are likely to reduce its habitat more rapidly to an area that cannot support a viable population. The species with the smaller AOO is also likely to have a smaller population size than the one with a larger AOO, and hence is likely to have higher extinction risks for that reason. In thinking about the differences between EOO and AOO, it may be helpful to compare species that have similar values for one of these spatial parameters and different values for the other. All else being equal, larger EOOs usually result in a higher degree of risk spreading (and hence a lower overall risk of extinction for the taxon) than smaller EOOs, depending on the relevant threats to the taxa. For example, a taxon with occurrences distributed over a large area is highly unlikely to be adversely affected across its entire range by a single fire because the spatial scale of a 24 Geographical Range single occurrence of this threat is narrower than the spatial distribution of the taxon. Conversely, a narrowly distributed endemic taxon, with the same AOO as the taxon above, may be severely affected by a fire across its entire EOO because the spatial scale of the threat is larger than, or as large as, the EOO of the taxon. Continuing decline: “A continuing decline is a recent, current or projected future decline (which may be smooth, irregular or sporadic) which is liable to continue unless remedial measures are taken. Fluctuations will not normally count as continuing declines, but an observed decline should not be considered as a fluctuation unless there is evidence for this.” (IUCN 2001, 2012b, and 2014) Note that continuing decline is different from "current population trend", which is a required field in IUCN Red List assessments, but not used in the criteria. There is not a simple correspondence between these two terms. The current population trend may be stable or increasing, with a continuing decline projected in the future. If the current population trend is declining, then there is continuing decline, but only if the trend is liable to continue into the future and it is not the declining phase of a fluctuation. Extreme fluctuations: “Extreme fluctuations can be said to occur in a number of taxa where population size or distribution area varies widely, rapidly and frequently, typically with a variation greater than one order of magnitude (i.e., a tenfold increase or decrease).” (IUCN 2001, 2012b, and 2014) Population fluctuations may vary in magnitude and frequency. For the ‘extreme fluctuations’ subcriterion to be invoked, populations would normally need to fluctuate by at least 10-fold (i.e., an order of magnitude difference between population minima and maxima). Fluctuations may occur over any time span, depending on their underlying causes. Short-term fluctuations that occur over seasonal or annual cycles will generally be easier to detect than those that occur over longer time spans, such as those driven by rare events or climatic cycles such as El Niño. Fluctuations may occur regularly or sporadically (i.e., with variable intervals between successive population minima or successive population maxima). The effect of extreme fluctuations on the extinction risk will depend on both the degree of isolation and the degree of synchrony of the fluctuations between subpopulations. METHODOLOGY: The present study was carried out in the period between March to May, 2014. To determine the Geographic Range of this species we collected sufficient data about the following: Distribution of Primula boveana within SKP during the field survey was record. A GPS fix was recorded in decimal degrees and datum WGS84 using Garmin 12 XL receiver. The fix was recorded to the fifth decimal digit. Arc View GIS 9.2 was used to plot the study sites. 25 Geographical Range Number of locations where the target species occurs, Extent of Occurrence (EOO), Area of Occupancy (AOO), and its decline trend were recorded and measured according to IUCN guidelines, 2014. For more clarification, Extent of Occurrence measured by drawing a polygon pass through the distribution points from outside. GIS then determined the area of this polygon in km2, See Map 1(A). Area of Occupancy also measured though GIS; the distribution map was converted to grids each one cover 2 km2, each occupied cell was then extracted and the total size were collected and presented in the form of km2, See Map 1 (B). Recorded GPS points for each location were imported into GIS 9.2 software as excel sheet, then it add on TIN map then from 3D analyst tool TIN surface was chosen to extract the topographic features (Elevation, aspect, and slope) of this species. It’s recognized that Topography is the principal controlling factor in vegetation growth and that the type of soils and the amount of rainfalls play secondary roles at the scale of hill slopes (O’Longhlin, 1981; Wood et al., 1988 & Dawes and Short, 1994). Elevation, aspect, and slope are the three main topographic factors that control the distribution and patterns of vegetation in mountain areas (Titshall et al. 2000 and Omar et al., 2012). Among these three factors, elevation is most important (Day and Monk, 1974 and Busing et al., 1992). Elevation along with aspect and slope in many respects determines the microclimate and thus large-scale spatial distribution and patterns of vegetation (Allen and Peet, 1990 and Busing et al., 1992). RESULTS: Primula boveana is endemic to SKP, South Sinai Egypt; it was recorded only inside the boundary of SKP; exactly, in five main very small localities (Shaq Elgragenia, Shaq Mousa, Elgabal Elahmar, Kahf Elghola, and Sad Abu Hebiq). Inside theses five, we recorded nine sites that containing this species (Map 1). Its estimated extent of occurrence (EOO) found to be about 13 km² (12.7km2), and its estimated area of occupancy (AOO) less than 1 km² (700m2), but with IUCN guidelines it cover area less than 6 km2, See Map 1. It was observed that both EOO and AOO showed decline with time. P. boveana was recorded as abundant in the past by (Richards 2003 and Al Wadi, 1993). SKP reports had shown also that this species record in the past at the St. Catherine Mountain and Elgalt Elazrak area. In early nineties, there is hearsay that the target species was distributed in more than 12 subpopulations including Gabal St. Katherine, Elgalt Elazrak that not recorded in this study. These studies disappeared in period between 2001 to 2007. Elgalt Elazrak subpopulation appeared from 2007 to 2012 and then disappeared again. Area like Shaq Elgragenia that recorded in this study as one of the main sites for P. boveana was not found in the past (2005 to 26 Geographical Range 2008). Kahf Elghola subpopulation was the main site for P. boveana in the past but in this study, we did not record any mature individuals in it. Pimula boveana distribution and size depending on the presence of water (rainfall) that is mean that species is undergoes extreme fluctuations in past, ongoing, and future resulting from irregular precipitation. These fluctuations in subpopulations number led to fluctuations in both EOO and AOO. Map 1: Automated preliminary GIS analysis of Primula boveana geographical distribution. A- Extent Of Occurrence (EOO), and B- Area Of occupancy (AOO). The relationship was further confirmed when the distribution and altitude maps were superimposed by GIS. It was found that P. boveana has a narrow range of distribution between 1745 and 2210 m, the average alt is 1980 m, it means that the species' Alt niche length has occupied about 465 m upward, this niche represents about 18% of the total available alt-niche in SKP (min-alt = 50 m and max alt = 2642 m) (Map 2 (a)). Extracted data that came from 3D analysis by GIS found that P. boveana communities were strongly affected by aspect and this shiny appears in the species distribution within special aspects. Number of stands located at each aspect were counted and presented as percentage (Map 2(b)). Results showed that target species highly located in slopes that face northeast- (78%) and east aspect (22%) with slope degree ranging from 55°to 90° (Table 1). Table 1: Topographic variation among different P. boveana subpopulation. NO. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Subpopulation S.G.1 S.G.2 S.G.3 S.M.1 S.M.2 S.M.3 E.A. K.E. A.H. Topographic feathers Aspect NE NE NE NE NE NE E E NE Altitude (m) 1886 2170 2210 2067 2065 1939 1914 1850 1745 Slope (Degree) 70° 55° 90° 90° 85° 79° 80° 82° 90° Note: S.G=Shaq Elgragenia, S.M=Shaq Mousa, E.A.= Elgabal Elahmar, K.E= Kahf Elghola, and A.H.= Sad Abu Hebik. 27 Geographical Range Map 2. Topographic map for P. boveana within SKP. a- Digital Elevation Model, and b- aspect ratios for the target species. Biogeographic realm for this species is Palearctic; Drought is the main limiting factor for this species, and because the plant is distributed within such a very small-restricted area, the entire population will feel the effect of this threat: thus, they are all effectively in one location. The very narrow range of geographical distribution of this species reflects the restricted geographic range for this threatened endemic species. Species distributed above 1700 m asl and situated in aspect NE and E with slopes ranged between 55° to 90° found to be cool climate lover. Climate decrease with the increase in the attitude. In addition most of Primula sites are concentrated on Northeast, and East aspect which give the species more sheltered conditions, its recognized that these aspects are cooler with lower soil evaporation resulting from lower amount of solar radiation coming from lower hours of sun facing these aspects (Omar et al. 2013). There is no such thing as the best method to delineate border and characterize range. In fact, the choice of the most appropriate methods is guided the combination of data type, data quality, and research questions. Here our goal was to stress how the combination of existing and novel quantitative and spatial statistics could be used in a complementary way to better describe species’ geographical range. This wealth of statistical methods comes, however, with a suite of technical challenges related to the spatial and temporal resolution of the data: too fine a resolution would portray highly fragmented species occupancy patterns and range edges that seem exceedingly variable, while too coarse a resolution would not pick up species responses t o envi r onm ent al c hanges and changing land us e pressur es. 28 Geographical Range Taxonomic accuracy is also a fundamental problem as species taxonomy is a moving target: speciation events do occur and the novel abilities that separate species into sub-species may become more and more apparent with intensive study (Fortin et al. 2005). Having these concerns in mind, the spatial statistics presented here can still be used to produce reliable species’ range maps, which are needed for conservation purposes. 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Journal of Hydrology, 102: 29-47. 32 Population Characteristics Chapter 2 Population Characteristics INTRODUCTION: The term population, like all ecological entities, requires definition. This has two purposes: a) to differentiate populations from other entities that are not populations, and b) to differentiate between different populations. The most widely accepted definition is that a population is a collection of individuals of the same species occurring together in a particular space and time. Since populations consist of individuals, which occur in communities together with other organisms, populations should be examined at a different organizational level than both individual organisms and communities. This is a matter of "focus" of observation: only overall quantities of the collection of individuals and the interactions among the individuals are considered. From the point of view of the population, whatever occurs within individuals is "detail" and interactions with other organisms are part of the "background". Both are essential for understanding populations, but describe phenomena that can be examined by using a different focus (Begon et al. 1990, Stearns, 1992). The second purpose of the definition is more problematical. This is due to a h i g h d e g r e e of fuzziness of all components of the definition: individual, species, space, and time. This is a problem inherent in biological systems and reflects their diverse and dynamic character. The solution is to know the target organisms well and to use ad hoc definitions that fit the specific question and the unique properties of the organisms. Problems often arise when defining where in space a population is. For some organisms that are fixed to a certain place or move only short distances, we can know exactly where the individuals are, but not where the boundaries of the population are. In these cases decisions are often taken arbitrarily based on sampling considerations, or based on landscape boundaries (a recognizable patch, a woodlot, etc.). On the other hand, a population of animals migrating in flocks or herds, for instance, has clearly recognizable boundaries at any moment, but its place changes constantly (Allan and Hoekstra 1989). The most variable term in the definition is the individual, even though it is the most tangible entity in ecology. In unitary organisms (most animals) there is usually no problem recognizing individuals, because they are both genetically and physiologically separate. Many species of plants and invertebrates, however, have vegetative propagation to produce new individuals, besides sexual reproduction. In such modular organisms new functional modules are formed (ramets) from a single genetically unique individual (the genet). If the ramets are physiologically independent, they can be counted as individuals, though not genetically distinct. This is just like 33 Population Characteristics internodes and branches of a plant, except that the connections between them are gone (Begon et al. 1990). The term species may also pose problems, if taxonomic definitions of species vary (splitting one species or lumping two species), or if the biological species concept, requiring the possibility of mating between all individuals, is not applicable. This is the case when there is no sexual reproduction at all, only fragmentation (a form of vegetative propagation common in flatworms, for instance), or cleistogamy (sexual reproduction by self-pollination without crossing between individuals in many plants - wild barley, for instance). The question "What determines structure and functioning of a population?" implies that we are interested in understanding which factors influence a population, and how it responds to these factors. In order to deal with these questions, we have to specify what properties populations have that can be described, and what kind of factors can influence them. There are many differences between populations - first of all between populations of different species, and even two populations of the same species can be very different. Nevertheless, there are properties that all populations possess, though in different shapes and proportions. These properties are: a) dimensions - population density, abundance or size, based on the number of individuals (per unit area, or in the entire population); b) composition - the proportions of individuals with different states (gender, age, developmental stage, or size); c) dynamics - changes in time of the dimensions and composition of a population; this includes the rate of change of the dimensions (population growth rate), and changes in the distributions of individuals' states (Silvertown,1982, Caswell, 1989). The properties of populations change all the time, and the rate of change can vary from very low to high. Even in populations that do not change in density, the individuals change and are replaced. They are born, grow and reproduce (or not), and die. These changes in the state of individuals can be summarized as r a t e s of c h a n g e , s u c h as bi r t h r a t e and mortality rate, or the proportion of individuals growing to a particular size in an interval of time, etc. These demographic processes are direct causes for the changes (or lack of it) in the population's dimensions, composition and dynamics. Demographic processes are abstractions, derived from actual changes in the state of the individuals. They are calculated as the proportion of individuals in a particular stage who manage to get to the next stage. Each individual experiences a different rate of change, in accordance with its general c o n d i t i o n , i t s p a s t a n d its genotype. Vital rates are demographic processes averaged over groups of individuals (according to age, size, or stage). Vital rates include birth rate, survivorship, growth, and fertility or fecundity. The states of individuals and the rates that form the connections between them, determine the life-cycle of the population (Silvertown, 1982, Caswell, 1989). 34 Population Characteristics Two different populations of the same species differ first of all in their vital rates, since they express how individuals respond to environmental variation. For example, comparing a population of a particular animal species in a rich and a poor habitat regarding food availability, we will usually see that population growth rate in the rich place is higher than in the poorer place. This is because individuals survive better, grow faster, attain reproductive maturity faster, and produce more offspring when there is more food. Environmental factors that affect demographic processes are very diverse and can be divided in many ways. Categories are not exclusive: some factors may appear in more than one category (Begon et al. 1990, Stearns, 1992). The concept of 'structure' in this sense has not been generally applied to plant populations. The study of plant population dynamics has suffered particularly from emphasis given to plasticity and vegetative reproduction. characteristics which render plants awkward as demographic units (Harper, 1967). Vegetative reproduction presents us with problems of definition, both of the true genetic individual and of the unit to be regarded as an individual for the purpose of counting. Plasticity may cause individuals of the same absolute age to differ 100-fold or more in size, allowing them to play very different roles within the population. The ecologist may, understandably, be reluctant to give such individuals equal weight in a population census. Finally, it is often difficult or impossible to ascertain the absolute age of a plant growing in the field, although careful observation may sometimes make this possible, as when scars are left by annually-produced inflorescences (Tamm, 1948). The structure of plant populations can be evaluated in terms of age, size and form of the individuals that constitute it (Harper & White, 1974). As the reproductive capacity and survival of plants depends more on size rather than the age (Watkinson & White, 1985; Weiner, 1985) it is better to classify the life history of a plant by stages (size) rather than the age (Caswell, 2001). The structure of a plant population is governed both by abiotic and biotic factors that also have a substantial bearing on the spatial pattern, age grouping and genetic structure of plant populations (Hutchings, 1997). Additionally, these groups of factors also regulate the spatial and temporal changes in the number of individuals in the populations (Watkinson, 1997; Silvertown & Charlesworth, 2001). Size distributions with few individuals in larger size-classes and numerous smaller ones in small-size classes have been reported by several workers (Knox et al. 1989, Arenas & Fernandez, 2000). The size class distributions, often referred to as size hierarchies (Weiner & Solbrig, 1984; Weiner, 1985) reflect various characteristics including the growth rate of individuals that are mainly the result of asymmetric competition (Weiner & Thomas, 1986). Among the biotic factors, competition (Weiner, 1985) and herbivory (Barboza et al., 2009) play vital role in size class distribution of individuals. The size distribution reflects the reproductive ability and the recruitment of new individuals (relative to mortality rate) or the prevalence of disturbance 35 Population Characteristics regime or events (Harper, 1977). The studies on size structure have been conducted for some tropical plant species in various regions (Mosallam, 2005, 2007; Barboza et al., 2009; Al-Sodany et al., 2009). The distribution pattern of plants in space as an outcome of possible regulatory mechanisms involved within the community, has attracted the attention of numerous workers (Dale, 1999). Pattern in a population can be defined (Ludwig & Reynolds, 1988) as a quantitative description of the horizontal distribution of individuals of a species within a community. Spatial pattern of plants reflect multiple ecological processes including competition, predation, allelopathy, herbivory, dispersal, various types of disturbances, plant-microbe interactions and edaphictopographic characteristics (Dale, 1999, Potts, 2003, Woods, 2004). Two contrasting types of spatial pattern are generally exhibited by perennial plants in arid environments. Regular patterns are exhibited by desert shrubs or trees which arise as a result of competition predominantly for moisture and to a lesser degree for nutrients (Phillips & MacMahon, 1981). By contrast plants often show aggregated or contagious distribution pattern that may be the result of a multitude of factors such as limited dispersal, vegetative reproduction, environmental heterogeneity and intraspecific competition (Southwood & Handerson, 2000). Aggregated patterns are also caused by harsh physical environments, typically during succession in a homogeneous habitat (Bertness & Callaway, 1994; Haase et al., 1996). Contagious pattern is generally exhibited at various scales with varied intensity (Dale, 1999). Many facets of plant reproduction, such as seed size and number and reproductive potential have long been the subject of focus for ecologists. In recent years, a great deal of work has been undertaken on the determination of reproductive effort, the proportion of total energy (biomass) allocated to reproduction in various plant species (Watson, 1984; Hancock & Pritts, 1987) and the allocation of energy to seed production. The relative size of plants in a community, as influenced by soil moisture and nutrients, herbivory and competition, appears to be directly correlated with seed size and number (Watkinson & White, 1985). A trade-off between seed size and number has been well recognized (Werner & Platt, 1976; Harper, 1977). There is an urgent need to understand the mechanism of reproduction of endangered species for more explanations about how this species deal with the changes in the environment and how we can do to enhance its ability to be more adaptive to these changes (Kruckeberg and Rabinowitz 1985). In order for new plants to establish in a population, flowers must be pollinated to form fruits, ovules must be fertilized, sustained with nutrients, and escape predation to form viable seeds, and seeds must be dispersed to suitable substrates for growth, where they must germinate. Any weak link or break in this chain of events curtails a plant’s ability to reproduce and, if constant over 36 Population Characteristics space and time, may contribute to a species’ rarity and impede its conservation. Phytogeographically, the Sinai Peninsula stands in a middle position between three well-defined phytogeographical regions of the world – SaharoScindian (African- Indian Desert region of Good, 1947), Irano-Turanian (west and central Asiatic region of Good, 1947) and the Mediterranean. Accordingly, the flora of Sinai combines the elements of these three regions (El-Hadidi, 1969). South Sinai, an arid to extremely arid region, is characterized by an ecological uniqueness due to its diversity in landforms, geologic structures, and climate that resulted in a diversity in vegetation types, which is characterized mainly by the sparseness and dominance of shrubs and subshrubs and the paucity of trees (Danin, 1983; Zahran and Willis, 2009; Moustafa and Klopatek, 1995 and Helmy et al., 1996), and a variation in soil properties (Ramadan, 1988; Kamh et al., 1989 and Abd El-Wahab, 1995). In this part, we will focus on the definition of some terms related to population according to IUCN guidelines and will use Primula boveana as case study. Terminology in use according to IUCN 2014: Population: “The term ‘population’ is used in a specific sense in the Red List Criteria that is different to its common biological usage. Population is here defined as the total number of individuals of the taxon. For functional reasons, primarily owing to differences between life forms, population size is measured as numbers of mature individuals only. In the case of taxa obligately dependent on other taxa for all or part of their life cycles, biologically appropriate values for the host taxon should be used.” (IUCN 2001, 2012b) The definition above means that a "population" (IUCN 2001, 2012b, and 2014) includes all individuals (mature and other life stages) that are assigned to the taxon throughout its distribution. “Population” and “Population size” are, however, not synonymous. Subpopulations: “Subpopulations are defined as geographically or otherwise distinct groups in the population between which there is little demographic or genetic exchange (typically one successful migrant individual or gamete per year or less).” (IUCN 2001, 2012b, and 2014). Mature individuals: “The number of mature individuals is the number of individuals known, estimated or inferred to be capable of reproduction. Population size: There are two important aspects of the definition of population size. First, population size is measured only in terms of mature individuals. Thus, the interpretation of this definition depends critically on an understanding of the definition of ‘mature individuals’. Second, population size is defined as the total number of mature individuals in all areas. Even if some of the taxon exists in subpopulations that might be seen as distinct populations in a general biological sense, for the purposes of the criteria, the total number of mature individuals in all 37 Population Characteristics areas (or all subpopulations) is used to measure the "population size" of the taxon. Reduction is a decline in population size of at least the % stated in criterion A over the specified time period. Continuing decline: “A continuing decline is a recent, current or projected future decline (which may be smooth, irregular or sporadic) which is liable to continue unless remedial measures are taken. Fluctuations will not normally count as continuing declines, but an observed decline should not be considered as a fluctuation unless there is evidence for this.” (IUCN 2001, 2012b, and 2014) Note that continuing decline is different from "current population trend", which is a required field in IUCN Red List assessments, but not used in the criteria. There is not a simple correspondence between these two terms. The current population trend may be stable or increasing, with a continuing decline projected in the future. If the current population trend is declining, then there is continuing decline, but only if the trend is liable to continue into the future and it is not the declining phase of a fluctuation. Severely fragmented: “The phrase ‘severely fragmented’ refers to the situation in which increased extinction risks to the taxon results from the fact that most of its individuals are found in small and relatively isolated subpopulations (in certain circumstances this may be inferred from habitat information). These small subpopulations may go extinct, with a reduced probability of recolonization.” (IUCN 2001, 2012b and 2014). Extreme fluctuations: “Extreme fluctuations can be said to occur in a number of taxa where population size or distribution area varies widely, rapidly and frequently, typically with a variation greater than one order of magnitude (i.e., a tenfold increase or decrease).” (IUCN 2001, 2012b, and 2014) Population fluctuations may vary in magnitude and frequency. For the ‘extreme fluctuations’ subcriterion to be invoked, populations would normally need to fluctuate by at least 10-fold (i.e., an order of magnitude difference between population minima and maxima). Fluctuations may occur over any time span, depending on their underlying causes. Short-term fluctuations that occur over seasonal or annual cycles will generally be easier to detect than those that occur over longer time spans, such as those driven by rare events or climatic cycles such as El Niño. Fluctuations may occur regularly or sporadically (i.e., with variable intervals between successive population minima or successive population maxima). Quantitative analysis: “A quantitative analysis is defined here as any form of analysis which estimates the extinction probability of a taxon based on known life history, habitat requirements, threats and any specified management options. Population viability analysis (PVA) is one such technique. Quantitative analyses should make full use of all relevant available data. In a situation in which there is limited information, such data as are available can be used to provide an estimate of extinction risk (for instance, estimating the impact of stochastic events on habitat). In presenting the results of quantitative analyses, the assumptions (which must be appropriate and defensible), the data used and the uncertainty in the data or quantitative model must be documented.” (IUCN 2001, 2012b, and 2014). 38 Population Characteristics METHODOLOGY: The present study was carried out in the period between March to May, 2014. To understand the population characteristics of this species we collected sufficient data about the following: Number of P. boveana populations and subpopulations, number of total individuals were recorded within field visits, number of mature individuals, population structure and dynamics were determined according to IUCN (2014). Population trend, fluctuations, fragmentation, and decline trend were recorded and measured according to IUCN guidelines (2014) using historical data about population size, number of individuals, occurrences from former studies. RESULTS: Number of population: Primula boveana located in five very small localities within Saint Katherine Protectorate (SKP) with 12.7 km2 EOO and less than six km2 AOO. Because of this small area, we consider all sites presents just one population that will receive the same threat if it comes to one of these localities it will reflect its effect to all (Map 3a). Number of subpopulations: During the field survey, we record nine very small but clearly separate subpopulations. These subpopulations distributed within the main five localities, three of them are located in Shaq Elgragenia and three other in Shaq Mousa while the other three localities containing only one subpopulation (Map 3b). Map 3. Primula boveana population characteristics; a- population range, and bsubpopulation distribution. 39 Population Characteristics Mature individuals: The total global population size was recorded at about 1010 individuals during this survey, but only 165 individuals were mature (about 16% of the total population). Shaq Mousa was the highest in total number of individuals, it containing 733 individuals (72.6%), 74 of them are mature. Only four immature individuals were recorded at Kahf Elghola (0.3%), See Table 2. Omar and Elgamal (2014) found that morphological and reproductive characteristics of this species present a great variation within and among different subpopulation (See Table 2). Number of leaves per individual plant ranged from five (K.E) to 33 (S.G.2) with average of 18 leaf per individual. Number of branches per plant ranged from zero (K.G & A.H.) to two (S.G.3) with average one branch per plant. Leaf area showed great variation ranged from 8 cm2 (A.H.) to 75 cm2 (S.M.2) with average of 35 cm2. P. boveana individuals showed also a great variation in size index ranged from 8 cm (A.H.) to 36 cm (A.) with mean of 21 cm. Results of reproductive characteristics showed great variation among different subpopulations. Only 3 locations from five containing adult individuals (K.E. & A.H. containing only seedlings); 16% of total recorded individuals are adult that able to produce seeds. Field observation showed that P. boveana starting the flowering season from the early of March and finish at the end of July when the fruiting season started in July and finish at the end of September (Figure 1). Number of flowers per individual plant ranged from 6 (S.G.2) to 17 (E.A.) with average of 8 flowers per individual. Number of inflorescence per plant ranged from 1 (All except S.G.3) to two (S.G.3) with average one inflorescence per plant. Number of seed per site ranged from 310 (S.G.1) to 5725 (S.G.3) with average of 2275 seeds per site. Seed weight ranged from 0.001 gm. (S.G.1) to 0.32 gm. (S.G.3) with average of 0.1 seeds per site (See Table 2). Table 2. Morphological and reproductive characteristics among different P. boveana subpopulation. Morphological Characteristics Subpopulation No. No. Shape Leaf Reproductive characteristics Size No. of Mature No. No. No. Seed Weight flowers Infl. Seed 8 1 310 0.001 65 6 1 4100 0.225 16 10 2 5725 0.32 535 24 11 1 2235 0.125 28 103 37 12 1 3658 0.205 25 80 12 10 1 983 0.055 36 36 20 8 17 1 3300 0.185 2 13 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 8 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 Leaf Branch Index Area Index S.G.1 12 1 2 14 12 23 3 S.G.2 33 1 2 38 23 141 S.G.3 26 2 2 38 26 98 S.M.1 20 1 1 50 21 S.M.2 12 1 1 75 S.M.3 23 1 2 47 E.A. 21 1 2 K.E. 5 0 A.H. 6 0 40 Indv. (gm) Population Characteristics Figure 1. Morphological and reproductive characteristics of P. boveana, A- Seedling in wild, B-New adult generation (F), C- Mature plant, D- Flowering stage, E- Fruiting stage, and F- dead plant. Most of species subpopulations are small, fragmented, with individual plants occurring sporadically in space in the little groups where the soil is wet. The number of mature plants declined from ‘abundant’ in 1832 (Richards, 2003), almost 2000 in 1991 (Al Wadi, 1993), 336 in 2007 (Jime´nez et al. 2014), and 165 in 2014. Only seven from the nine subpopulations contain between 3 and 65 mature individuals. There are no records for mature individuals in Kahf Elghola and Sad Abu Hebiq. The largest Number of mature plants was recorded in one of the three subpopulation recorded in Shaq Mousa and was 65 with percentage reach to 46% of the total individuals recorded in this subpopulation (Figure 2). Figure 2. Deterioration of Primula boveana population in the last five years in Shaq Mousa. 41 Population Characteristics During the last 10 years, these subpopulations showed large changes in the total number of individuals, cover, and density. There was a peak observed between 2008 to 2010 (345 to 360 mature individuals) but now (2012-2014) the population is at its lowest observed number: it may be that the species undergoes severe fluctuations. The population decline was also recorded, thirty individuals were recorded at the Kahf Elghoula subpopulation in 2009, but only four immature seedlings in 2014. Forty-one individuals were recorded in Sad Abu Hebiq subpopulation in 2007 (Jime´nez et al. 2014), but only six immature seedlings in 2014 (Figures 2 and 3). Figure 3. Deterioration of Primula boveana population in the last ten years at Kahf Ekghola site. It’s important to know exactly the differences between reduction and containing decline when you study the population status. In timing, reduction is One-off event or Ongoing, while containing decline the decline is expected to continue unless something is done to stop it. Reduction is apply only population size, while containing decline apply on Population size, Extent of occurrence, Area of occupancy, Area, extent and/or quality of habitat, locations, and subpopulations (IUCN, 2014). Its requested to record the continuing decline percentage in mature individuals within 1, 2, 3 generation or 3, 5, 10 years, whichever is longer by one or more of the following: Observed – Inferred - Projected , it’s important to note to not go 100 years in future. Its request to record population reduction in past, future, and ongoing. In past, percent change in past, past population reduction basis, causes of past reduction reversible? causes of past reduction understood?, and causes 42 Population Characteristics of past reduction ceased? In future, percent change in future, and future population reduction basis. In ongoing, both: percent change over any 10 year or 3 generation period, whichever is longer, and must include both past and future, future can't go beyond 100 years, both population reduction basis, causes of both (past and future) reduction reversible?, causes of bot h (past and future) reduction understood?, and causes of both (past and future) reduction ceased?. Quantitative Analysis is important part to be record when IUCN assessment takes place. It’s requested to detect the probability of extinct ion in the wild within 3 generations or 10 y ears, whichever is longer, maximum 100 years, probability of extinct ion in the wild within 5 generations or 20 years, whichever is longer, maximum 100 years, and probability of extinct ion in the wild within 100 years (IUCN 2014). From the above, we found that P. boveana is in extreme danger and by time, it will tend to be in extinct cycle. The sharp decline in population size, number of total individuals, number of mature individuals, and habitat may came from the changing in the world climate, which increase the effect of the main threat to this species (drought). Consequently, it is necessary to carry out regular monitoring to keep updated on the population size, distribution & its trends. Researches and workshops must establish rabidly to start in Species Action/Recovery Plan. This dramatic demographic decline observed in P. boveana is likely caused by environmental changes in the past few decades. Habitat deterioration as a consequence of global warming trends is a general threat for the survival not only of P. boveana, but also of other species endemic to the Sinai Mountains (Hoyle and James 2005, Jime´nez et al. 2014). Both temperatures and aridification are expected to increase in the Mediterranean region in the next decades (Alpert et al. 2008, Giorgi and Lionello 2008, Issar, 2008), and predictive models forecast a high extirpation risk for species in the mountains, especially in arid areas (McCain and Colwell, 2011). Less precipitation throughout the year would unavoidably reduce the volume of the water flows to which P. boveana is intimately linked, therefore reducing the number and size of habitat patches suitable for this species (Jime´nez et al. 2014). Furthermore, rising human demands on the environment would aggravate the problem of water availability. Besides the direct effect of low water availability on plant survival, an increase in temperatures could definitely affect the flowering phenology of the species and further disrupt the already irregular pollination services (Root et al 2003, Jime´nez et al. 2014). 43 Population Characteristics REFERENCES: Abd El-Wahab, R.H. 1995. Reproduction ecology of wild trees and shrubs in Southern Sinai, Egypt. M.Sc. Thesis, Botany Department, Faculty of Science, Suez Canal University, Ismailia, Egypt. Al Wadi, H., 1993. Primula boveana and Jebel Katarina. Bull Alp Gar Soc 61:68–70 Alpert P., Krichak, S.O., Shafir, H., Haim, D., and Osetinsky, I. 2008. Climatic trends to extremes employing regional modeling and statistical interpretation over the E. Mediterranean. Global Planet Change 63:163– 170. Al-Sodany, Y.M., Shaltout, K., and Eid, E.M., 2009. Demography of Ipomoea carnea: An invasive species in the Nile Delta, Egypt. Int. J. Agri. & Biol., 11(5): 501-508. Arenas, F. and Fernandez, C. 2000. Size structure and dynamics in a population of Sargassum muticum (Phaeophyceae). Journal of Phycology, 36(6): 1012-1020. Barbosa, P., Hines, J., Kaplan, I., Martinson, H., Szczepaniec, A., and Szendrei. Z. 2009. Associational susceptibility: having right or wrong neighbours. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst., 40: 1-20. 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The Geography of the Flowering Plants. Longmans Green, London, 403pp. Haines, R.W. (1951). Potential annuals of the Egyptian desert. Bull. Inst. Fouad I du Desert, Egypte, 1(2): 103–118. Haase, P., Pugnaire, F.I., Clark, S.C., and Incoll, L.D. 1996. Spatial patterns in a two-tiered semi-arid shrubland in south-eastern Spain. J. Veg. Sci., 7: 527-534. Hancock, J.F. and Pritts, M.P. 1987. Does reproductive effort vary across different life forms and seral environments? A review of the literature. Bull. Torrey Bot. Club, 114: 53-59. Harper, J.L 1967. A Darwinian approach to plant ecology. J. Eeol. 55: 247270. Harper, J.L. 1977. Population Biology of Plants. Academic Press London. 44 Population Characteristics Harper, J.L. and White, J. 1974. Demography of Plants. Ann. Rev. Ecol. Syst., 5: 419-463. Helmy, M.A., Moustafa, A.A., Abd El-wahab, R.H. and Batanony, K.H. 1996. Distribution behavior of seven common shrubs and trees growing in South Sinai, Egypt. Egyptian Journal of Botany 36(1): 53- 70. Hoyle M. and James, M. 2005. Global warming, human population pressure, and viability of the world’s smallest butterfly. Conserv Biol 19:1113–1124. Hutchings, M.J. 1997. The structure of plant populations. In: Plant Ecology, (Ed.): M.J. Crawley. pp 325-358. 2nd edn. Blackwell Science: Oxford. Issar A.S., 2008. The impact of global warming on the water resources of the Middle East: past, present and future. In: Zereini F, Ho¨tzl H (eds) Climate changes and water resources in the Middle East and North Africa. Springer, Heidelberg, pp 145–164. IUCN. 2001. IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria: Version 3.1. IUCN Species Survival Commission. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, U.K. IUCN. 2012b. IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria: Version 3.1. Second edition. Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK: IUCN. Available at www.iucnredlist.org/technical-documents/categories-and-criteria IUCN. 2014. Guidelines for Using the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria. Version 11. Prepared by the Standards and Petitions Subcommittee. Downloadable from http://www.iucnredlist.org/documents/RedListGuidelines.pdf. Jime´nez, A., Mansour, H., Keller, B., and Conti, E. 2014. Low genetic diversity and high levels of inbreeding in the Sinai primrose (Primula boveana), a species on the brink of extinction. Plant Syst Evol (2014) 300:1199–1208. Kamh, R.N., El-Kadi, M.A., El-Kadi, A.H. and Dahdoh, M.S.A. 1989. Evaluation of Mn forms in selected soils of Sinai. Desert Institute Bulletin, A.R.E. 39(1):183-197. Knox, R.G., Peet, R.K., and Christensen, N.L. 1989. Population dynamics in loblolly pine stands: changes in skewness and size inequality. Ecology, 70: 1153-66. Kruckeberg, A.R., and Rabinowitz, D. 1985. Biological aspects of endemism in higher plants. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics.16: 447– 479. Ludwig, J.A. and Reynolds, J.F. 1988. Statistical Ecology. Wiley, New York. McCain C.M. and Colwell, R.K. 2011. Assessing the threat to montane biodiversity from discordant shifts in temperature and precipitation in a changing climate. Ecol Lett 14:1236–1245. Mosallam, H.A.M. 2005. Size Structure of Zygophyllum album and Cornulaca monacantha Populations in Salhyia Area, East of Egypt. Int. J. Agri. & Biol., 7: 345-351. Mosallam, H.A.M. 2007. Assessment of Target Species in Saint Katherine Protectorate, Sinai, Egypt. J Appl. Sci. Res., 3: 456-459. Moustafa, A.A. and Klopatek. J.M. (1995): Vegetation and landforms of the Saint Katherine area, Southern Sinai, Egypt. Journal of Arid Environments, 30: 385-395. 45 Population Characteristics Omar, K. and Elgamal, I. 2014. Reproductive and germination ecology of Sinai primrose, Primula boveana Decne. ex Duby. Journal of Global Biosciences. Vol. 3(3); 695-708. Phillips, D.L. and MacMahon, J.A. 1981. Competition and spacing patterns in desert shrubs. J. Eco., 69: 97-115. Potts, M.D. 2003. Drought in a Bornean everwet rain forest. J. Ecol., 91: 467474. Ramadan, A.A. 1988. Ecological studies in Wadi Feiran, Its Tributaries and The Adjacent Mountains. Ph.D. Thesis, Botany Department, Faculty of Science, Suez Canal University, Ismailia, Egypt. Richards, A.J., 2003. Primula, 2nd ed. Timber Press, Portland, Oregon, USA. Root T.L., Price, J.T., Hall, K.R., Schneider, S.H., Rosenzweig, C., and Pounds, J.A. 2003. Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421:57–60. Silvertown, J. 1982. Introduction to Plant Population Ecology. Longman, London, UK. Silvertown, J. and Charlesworth, D. 2001. Introduction to Plant Population Biology. Fourth Edition. Blackwell Science. Oxford, UK. Southwood, T.R.E. and Henderson, P.A. 2000. Ecological Methods, 3rd. ed. Blackwell Science, Oxford. Stearns, S.C. 1992. The Evolution of Life Histories. Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford, UK. Allan, T.F.H. and Hoekstra, T.W. 1985. The confusion between scaledefined levels and conventional levels of organization in ecology. Journal of Vegetation Science 1(1): 5-12. Tamm, C.O. 1948. Observations on reproduction and survival of some cerennial herbs. Bot. Notiser. 3: 305-321. Watkinson, A.R. 1997. Plant population dynamics. In: Plant ecology, (Ed.): M.J. Crawley. pp. 359-400. Watkinson, A.R. and White, J. 1985. Some life-history consequences of modular construction in plants. Philos. Trans. Royal Soc. London, Series B, 313: 31-51. Watson, M.A. 1984. Developmental constraints, effect of population growth and pattern allocation in a colonal plant. Amer. Natur., 123: 411-426. Weiner, J. 1985. Size hierarchies in experimental populations of annual plants. Ecology, 66: 743-752. Weiner, J. and Solbrig, O.T. 1984. The meaning and measurement of size hierarchies in plant populations. Oecologia, 61: 334-6. Weiner, J. and Thomas, S.W. 1986. Size variability and competition in plant monocultures. Oikos, 47: 211-222. Woods, K.D. 2004. Intermediate disturbance in a late successional hemlocknorthern hardwood forest. J. Ecol., 92: 464-476. Zahran, M.A. and Willis, A.J. (2009): The Vegetation of Egypt. Springer Science+Business Media B.V. (2): 221-249. 46 Habitats and Ecology Chapter 3 Habitats and Ecology INTRODUCTION: Plant ecology is a subdiscipline of ecology which studies t h e distribution and abundance of plants, the effects of environmental f a c t o r s upon the abundance of plants, and the interactions among and between plants and other organisms (Keddy, 2007). A habitat, or biome, is the type of environment in which plant and animals live. Habitat is dictated by what kinds of plants grow there, the climate and the geography. Plant distributions is governed by a combination of historical factors, ecophysiology and biotic interactions. The set of species that can be present at a given site is limited by historical contingency. In order to show up, a species must either have evolved in an area or dispersed there (either naturally or through human agency), and must not have gone locally extinct. The set of species present locally is further limited to those that possess the physiological adaptations to survive the environmental conditions that exist. This group is further shaped through interactions with other species (Lambers et al. 2008). Plant communities are broadly distributed into biomes based on the form of the dominant plant species. For example, grasslands are dominated by grasses, while forests are dominated by trees. Biomes are determined by regional climates, mostly temperature and precipitation, and follow general latitudinal trends. Within biomes, there may be many ecological communities, which are impacted not only by climate and a variety of smaller-scale features, including soils, hydrology, and disturbance regime. Biomes also change with elevation, high elevations often resembling those found at higher latitudes. The Saint Katherine Protectorate (SKP) is one of Egypt’s largest protected areas and includes the country’s highest mountains. This arid, mountainous ecosystem supports a surprising biodiversity and a high proportion of plant endemics and rare (SKP Management Plan 2003). The flora of the mountains differs from the other areas, due to its unique geology, morphology and climate aspects. It is currently recognized as one of the central regions for flora diversity in the Middle East by the IUCN the World Conservation Union and Worldwide Fund for Nature (IUCN, 1994). The clearest characteristics of the desert vegetation are scarcity of plant growth and near lack of trees; many plant species have become endangered due to increasing aridity and human activities. The continuous overgrazing, overcutting and uprooting are leading to the disappearance of the pastoral plant communities, a reduction of plant cover and soil erosion (SKP Management Plan 2003, Hatab, 2003). The landscape ranges from rugged mountains, which includes Mount Katherine (2642 m), Egypt’s highest peak, whose slopes are incised by Wadi 47 Habitats and Ecology Rivers. The Wadi Rivers generally slope towards the east, in the direction of the Gulf of Aqaba, or westwards towards the Gulf of Suez (El-Alqamy, 2002). The diversity of both landforms and geologic structures of SKP leads to the differentiation of a number of microhabitats. Each of them has its peculiar environmental conditions and unique flora which is rich in medicinal, rare and endemic plants. The diversity in geomorphological and geological structures of SKP resulted in a unique landscape. Six landform types are identified in this landscape namely: Wadis (valleys), Terraces, Slopes, Gorges, Cliffs, Farsh (basins) and Caves (SKP Management Plan 2003, Khedr, 2007 and Omar et al., 2012). Wadis are one of the most important and clearly defined ecosystems in SKP. They act as drainage systems collecting water from catchment areas and form favorable habitats for plant growth. The wadis in SKP are very narrow, have very steep slopes, short in length and occur at higher elevations ranging from 1190m to 1900m. Floristically, these wadis are relatively diverse and characterized by the presence of many medicinal plants e.g. Seriphidium herba-album, and some endemic plants e.g. Ballota kaiseri, Phlomis aurea and Euphorbia sanctae-catharinae. Terraces are platforms of bedrock mantled with a sheet of gravel and sand, or rocky surface. This microhabitat is dominated by perennial species (lithophytes) that grow on the surface of hard granitic rock covered with very thin deposits. The most important medicinal plants are Stachys aegyptiaca, Teucrium polium and some endemic species e.g. Silene leucophylla, Nepeta septemcrenata and Bufonia multiceps. It occurs at higher elevations ranging from 1453m to 1928m. Slopes represent all land surfaces ranging from horizontal to vertical. Slope habitat dominates in Mount Katherine. It appears at different elevations ranging from 1634 m to 2300m. It is also characterized by different moisture availability. Annual plant species are restricted to pockets of soil in gentle slopes. Gorges originate from joints or faults. It is one of the most important microhabitats in Mount Katherine, Mount Musa, and Mount El-Ahmar. The gorge microhabitats are characterized by gravel and sand between the boulders and pockets of soil. In addition, some gorges have dykes that trap water resulting in significant plant cover. It occurs at higher elevations ranging from 1594m to 2037m. Cliffs: In geography and geology, a cliff is a significant vertical, or near vertical, rock exposure. Cliffs are formed as erosion landforms due to the processes of erosion and weathering that produce them. Cliffs are common on coasts, in mountainous areas, escarpments and along rivers. Many cliffs also feature tributary waterfalls or rock 48 Habitats and Ecology shelters. This microhabitat supports quite growth of the endemic species Primula boveana, Hypericum sinaicum and Capparis spinosa and very small other medicinal plants with vegetation cover varying between 5 and 10%. Farsh (basin) microhabitats are restricted to higher elevations 20252233m. It occurs as depressions between the peaks of high mountains. This microhabitat is characterized by the presence of pockets of soil, open with the gentle slope. This microhabitat supports dense growth of the endemic species Thymus decussates, Nepeta septemcrenata and many other medicinal plants with v e g e t a t i o n cover varying between 50 and 75%. Caves are very important microhabitats in the north-facing slopes of SKP Mountains. It is usually found at an elevation above 1750 m, and is usually found near springs and in cracks of red granite, where water is available almost all over the year. The endemic species which is restricted to cave microhabitat is Primula boveana. It is associated with Adiantum capillus-veneris and Funaria sp. There are no permanent watercourses in the SKP; wadis may run for short periods following heavy rainfall and floods can be destructive. In certain wadis, e.g. Wadi Isla, water may flow above ground for short distances throughout the year following good rain. Natural springs occur where rocks are highly fractured or jointed. The springs may form small oases and are often tapped by Bedouins to irrigate gardens; they are also the only water sources available for wildlife (Hatab, 2009 and Omar et al., 2012). The main water bearing formations in South Sinai include: (1) the basement complex occupying the southern part of Sinai specially the highly fissured igneous rocks (Saint Catherine area, Wadi El-Sheik and Wadi Feiran) and (2) the alluvial deposits occupying the alluvial plains which are parallel to the Gulf of Suez and the Gulf of Aqaba (Hammad, 1980, SKP Management Plan 2003, Hatab, 2009). In the arid and semi-arid region, although there is a correlation between mean rainfall and vegetation productivity over the growing season and the soil moisture is regarded as the determining factor in vegetation conditions, considerable uncertainty of the vegetation response to climate change still remains (Goward & Prince, 1995). This uncertainty is mainly due to our current limited understanding of the forcing/feedback surface– atmosphere interactions, which usually have complex temporal lag effects (Tian et al., 2000; Zhou et al., 2001). For example, warming temperature, combined with changes in precipitation, can affect vegetation growth through influencing soil moisture and nutrient availability (Kindermann et al., 1996; Tian et al., 1999). Potter et al., (1999) found that, in the arid and semi-arid mid-latitude areas of the northern hemisphere, vegetation net primary 49 Habitats and Ecology production can be affected by temperatures preceding the current period by up to 1 year. Many workers (Ezcurra et al., 1987 & Sharma and Shankar, 1991) report major differences in desert vegetation between hills and plains based primarily on the dichotomy between rocky and sandy substrates. On rocky substrates the distribution of vegetation may be related to rock and crevice micro-topography (e.g. Olsvig-Whittaker et al., 1983 & Moustafa and Zaghloul, 1996) with little vegetation clumping evident, and erosional (or solutional) drainage lines where linear patterns may again emerge, reflecting riparian habitats. Phytogeographically, the Sinai Peninsula stands in a middle position between three well-defined phytogeographical regions of the world – SaharoScindian (African- Indian Desert region of Good, 1947), Irano-Turanian (west and central Asiatic region of Good, 1947) and the Mediterranean. Accordingly, the flora of Sinai combines the elements of these three regions (El-Hadidi, 1969). The flora and vegetation of the mountain country of Sinai proper have been studied by many workers, e.g. Täckholm (1932, 1956, 1974), Zohary (1935, 1944, 1966, 1972 & 1978), Ali (2004), Moursy, (2010), Zahran and Gilbert (2010), Hart (2012) and Omar et al., (2012). The rock habitat is unfavorable to the growth of plants because of the high resistance to root penetration, a thin depth of soil and deficient water content. For these reasons only certain plants, chasmophytes, can tolerate the adverse conditions of the habitat. Some of the rock plants of Sinai are firmly attached to the smooth surface of the rock by means of hook-like roots, e.g. Galium sinaicum and Origanum syriacum (Zahran and Willis, 2009). Other plants grow in rock crevices, which, though narrow, are sometimes very deep. Soil and plant litter accumulate in these crevices, retaining water and forming a fertile substratum through which plant roots penetrate. Deep crevices support several species of shrubs and trees, e.g. Capparis cartilaginea, Cupressus sempervirens. Ephedra alata, Ficus pseudosycomorus and Moringa peregrina (Migahid and Ayyad 1959). South Sinai, an arid to extremely arid region, is characterized by an ecological uniqueness due to its diversity in landforms, geologic structures, and climate that resulted in a diversity in vegetation types, which is characterized mainly by the sparseness and dominance of shrubs and subshrubs and the paucity of trees (Moustafa and Klopatek, 1995 and Helmy et al., 1996), and a variation in soil properties (Abd El-Wahab, 1995). Human impacts of settled societies and nomadic Bedouin groups have been recorded in South Sinai (Moustafa et al., 1999). The Saint Katherine area has a variety of landform types: terraces, gorges, slopes, ridges, wadis and plains. Landform type and other elements such as elevation, soil physical characteristics (including soil texture and nature of surface), slope, aspect and topography all play an important role in determining the distribution of plant communities (Ayyad and Ammar, 1974; 50 Habitats and Ecology Danin, 1983 and Moustafa, 1990). Guenther et al., (2005); Abd El-Wahab, (2006); Omar, et al., (2012) and Moursy et al., (2012) found that Saint Kathreine Mountain landforms (slopes, gorges, and terraces) are dominated by the following communities: Artemisia herba-alba, Tanacetum santolinoides, Stachys aegyptiaca, Teucrium polium, Phlomis aurea, Echinops spinosissimus, Mentha longifolia and Nepeta septemcrenata. AbdelElazeem, (2009) and Omar, et al., (2012) found that Lamiaceae, Asteraceae and Cruceferae represented the dominant families in SKP area. The first step towards understanding what controls the abundance and activities of organisms, and the factors that lead to spatial and temporal variability in soil biological communities is to gain an understanding of the physical and chemical nature of the soil matrix in which they live (Bardgett, 2005). Within most landscapes there is a tremendous variety of soil types varying in physical and chemical make-up. The soil-forming factors are central to understanding the variability in soils at the landscape level and at the level of the individual soil profile (Bardgett, 2005). Soils of mountainous landforms are shallow in depth but rich in silt and clay, and different soil nutrients, (Kassas, 1952) of rough sand texture, which is characterized by low content of organic matter, and poorness of many essential soil nutrients such as N, P, and K (Balba, 1995). Soil pH, EC, silt and clay content are the most important indicators of soil quality, and represent driving variables in the soil system, influencing the availability of soil nutrients and controlling the coverage and structure of vegetation. Soils of South Sinai, as desert soils (Aridisols), are characterized by spatial heterogeneity, where soil properties vary over quite small distances. The causes of this heterogeneity include variation in plant cover, vegetation composition, slope, and topography (Durnkerley and Brown, 1997). Balba, (1995), Moustafa and Zayed, (1996) and Omar et al., (2012) found that soils of the South Sinai are gravelly in wadis and plains, rocky at mountains in surface, sand to loamy sand in texture, alkaline, non-saline to slightly saline. They are characterized by low content of essential nutrients and Cataion Exchange Capacity (CEC). Mosallam, (2007) found that soil of Saint Katherine generally has alkine pH, with a minimum of 7.2 in the location of Al-Ahmar mountain and a maximum of 8.3 in the location of Wadi garagnia. Omar et al., (2012) found that soil texture of SKP composes of loamy sand, sandy, sandy loam and loam. Soil moisture ranging from 0.08% to 32% and soil pH values was slightly alkaline and ranging from 7.1 to 8.9. Total soluble salts ranging from 45 ppm to 1730 ppm and electrical conductivity ranging from 92 μs/ cm to 3390 μs/ cm. Soil organic matter at this area is ranged from 0.226% to 19.34% . Climate is one of the major factors governing the distribution of wild plant species, acting directly through physiological constraints on growth and reproduction (Guisan and Zimmerman, 2000) or indirectly through ecological factors such as competition for resources (Shao and Halpin, 1995). When a 51 Habitats and Ecology species distribution is predicted using climate variables only, it is commonly referred to as a climate envelope model. In this part, we will focus on the definition of some terms related to Habitats and Ecology according to IUCN guidelines and will use Primula boveana as case study. Terminology in use according to IUCN 2014: Continuing decline: “A continuing decline is a recent, current or projected future decline (which may be smooth, irregular or sporadic) which is liable to continue unless remedial measures are taken. Fluctuations will not normally count as continuing declines, but an observed decline should not be considered as a fluctuation unless there is evidence for this.” (IUCN 2001, 2012b, and 2014) Note that continuing decline is different from "current population trend", which is a required field in IUCN Red List assessments, but not used in the criteria. There is not a simple correspondence between these two terms. The current population trend may be stable or increasing, with a continuing decline projected in the future. If the current population trend is declining, then there is continuing decline, but only if the trend is liable to continue into the future and it is not the declining phase of a fluctuation. Generation length: is the average age of parents of the current cohort (i.e., newborn individuals in the population). Generation length therefore reflects the turnover rate of breeding individuals in a population. Generation length is greater than the age at first breeding and less than the age of the oldest breeding individual, except in taxa that breed only once. Where generation length varies under threat, such as the exploitation of fishes, the more natural, i.e. pre-disturbance, generation length should be used.” (IUCN 2001, 2012b, and 2014). METHODOLOGY: The present study was carried out in the period between September 2013 to May, 2014. To determine the Habitats and Ecology of this species we collected sufficient data about the following: Preferable habitat and microhabitat of the target species and its decline trend within the field survey, according to IUCN Habitats Classification Scheme were recorded (IUCN 2014). Life form and species correlation were recorded according to field observation. Climatic features (Max. Temp., Min. Temp., and Perception) were extracted from BIOCLIM data using DIVA-GIS. Soil properties (Physical and chemical) were determined according to Piper, (1950), Richard, (1954), Black (1965), Jackson, (1967), and Allen et al., (1976). 52 Habitats and Ecology Vegetation characteristics of target species like density, cover, abundance, Size Index, and associated species within each site were recorded. Plant species in each given quadrant has been tentatively recorded in the field and put in tabulated form, giving the authentication of their identification with the help of the local floristic workers (Boulos, 1999; 2000; 2002 and 2003 & Fayed and Shaltout, 2004). A total of 9 circles with diameter 10 m were established to cover all vegetation aspects. Vegetation parameters were calculated depending on the following: o Density = no. of individuals / area sampled o Abundance = total number of individuals of species / total number of plots in which species occurred. o Cover = area of circle (n*r^2) where r the half average of plant width. o Size index (cm) = (Plant height + Plant diameter) / 2 RESULTS: According to IUCN Habitats Classification Scheme, this species belong to rocky habitat (mountain peaks), Caves, and Desert, it is restricted to Montane wadis fed by melted snow and distributed in moist ground in the vicinity of wells and sheltered mountain areas, especially cliffs and caves with steep granite slopes. The species recorded in five main localities presenting the best preferable habitat for this species (Table 3). Description of these localities as fellow: 1. Shaq Elgragnia Location: 28.532072°N 33.969543°E, 28.518591°N 33.9 70243°E. Altitude range: 1810-2150m. Soil texture: Bolder: 40%, Rocks: 40%, Gravel: 15%, Sand: 5%. Human activity: moderate. Description: Figure (4), Gorge consists of bolder and rocks substrate with granite and basalt geology. Gorge has a rigid topography with a North to Northwest slope exposure. The steepness of the gorge ranges from 40˚60˚ while the steepness of slope ranges from 70˚-90˚. The gorge has approximately width range from 15-40 meters; gorge length is approximately 2.8 km. The distance from Saint Kathreine city is about 4.5km. Vegetation is dominated by Origanum syriacum, Nepeta septemcrenata and Phlomis aurea. 53 Habitats and Ecology Figure 4. View of Shaq Elgragenia, A- Site view, and B- Subpopulation number 2 (S.G.2). 2. Shaq Mousa Location: 28.533603°N 33.965518°E, 28.518911°N 33 .959451°E. Altitude range: 1780-2020m. Soil texture: Bolder: 45%, Rocks: 40%, Gravel: 10%, Sand: 5%. Human activity: High. Description: This wadi is a steep gorge which rises from the end of Wadi Arbaein steeply upwards towards the summit of Mount St. Katherine. Gorge consists of bolder and rocks substrate with granite geology with sporadic sandstone features (Figure 5). Gorge has a rigid topography with a Northwest slope exposure. The steepness of the gorge ranges from 30˚50˚ while the steepness of slope ranges from 70˚-90˚. The gorge has approximately width range from 15-50 meters; gorge length is approximately 2.8 km. The distance from Saint Kathreine city is about 4.2km. Vegetation is dominated by Echinops spinosus, Seriphidium herbaalbum and Achillea fragrantissima. (Omar et al., 2012). 54 Habitats and Ecology Figure 5 . View of Shak Mosa, A-Subpopulation number 4 (S.M.1), and BSubpopulation number 6 (S.M.3). 3. Elgabal Elahmar Location: 28.520714°N 33.938425°E, 28.520318°N 33. 950556°E. Altitude range: 1930-2200 m. Soil texture: Bolder: 50%, Rocks: 30%, Gravel: 15%, and Sand: 5%. Human activity: High. Description: Gorge consists of boulder and rocks with granitic geology. The topography of the gorge is concave and the slope exposure varies from northeast to northwest. The width of the gorge ranges from 15 meters to 35 meters while gorge length is approximately 1.5 km. The distance from Saint Kathreine city is about 4.8 km (Figure 6). The steepness of the gorge ranges from 45˚- 75˚ while the steepness of slope ranges from 50˚75˚. There is a high diversity and cover of species in this gorge. The vegetation is dominated by Tanacetum sinaicum (fresen.) Delile ex Bremer & humphries, Phlomis aurea Decne, and Echinops spinosus L. (Omar et al., 2012). Figure 6. View of Elgabal Elahmar. 55 Habitats and Ecology 4. Kahf Elghola Location: 28.545522°N 33.949411°E Altitude: 1860 m. Soil texture: Bolder: 10%, Rocks: 40%, Gravel: 25%, Sand: 25%. Human activity: High. Description: Figure 7, Cave found near springs and in cracks of red granite, where water is available almost all over the year. Cave rising from the base of Wadi Alarbein, Northeast slope exposure. The steepness of the cave ranges from 45˚-60˚ while the steepness of slope ranges from 30˚- 60˚. The cave has approximately width range from 5-20 meters; The distance from Saint Kathreine city is about 1.8 km. The endemic species which is restricted to cave microhabitat is Primula boveana. It is associated with Adiantum capillus-veneris and Funaria sp (Omar et al., 2012). Figure 7. View of Kahf Elghola, A- Outside view, and B- inside view. 5. Sad Abo Hebic Location: 28.561568 N 33.874364 E , 28.560068 N 33.875262 E. Altitude range: 1745 – 1766 m. Soil texture: Bolder: 45%, Rocks: 30%, Gravel: 15%, Sand: 10%. Human activity: High. Description: Figure 8, Wadi consists of boulder and rocks with granite geology. The topography of is wadi is concave and the slope exposure is northeast. The width of the wadi ranges from 25 meters to 50 meters. This wadi contains water spots collecting from rain water throw whole year. The 56 Habitats and Ecology steepness of the wadi ranges from 10˚-30˚ while the steepness of slope ranges from 30˚-60˚. There is a high diversity and cover of species in this wadi resulting from the continuous water supply. Trees and shrubs are present in this wadi by high cover. The vegetation is dominated by Salix mucronata Thunb. and Hypericum sinaicum Hochst. & Steud. (Omar et al., 2012). Figure 8. View of Sad Abo Hebic Table 3. IUCN Habitats Classification Scheme for P. boveana. Season Suitability Major Importance? 6. Rocky areas (eg. inland cliffs, mountain peaks) 7 .1. Caves and Subterranean Habitats (nonaquatic) -> Caves and Subterranean Habitats (nonaquatic) - Caves 8.2 . Desert -> Desert - Temperate Habitat resident Suitable Yes resident Suitable Yes resident Suitable Yes 8.3 . Desert -> Desert - Cold resident Unknown - It was observed that these microhabitat showed decline in the last years resulting from irregular rainfall and human water consumption which led to deterioration in plant population. Being part of Egypt at the extreme Northeast of Africa, the Sinai Peninsula belongs climatically to the dry province (Ayyad & Ghabour 1986 and Peel et. al., 2007). Sinai is characterized by an arid to extremely arid climate with long hot rainless summer and mild winter (Issar & Gilad, 1982 and Danin, 1983). Most of the precipitations in St. Katherine occurred in the autumn, winter and spring seasons, the number and the time of the yearly rains are unpredictable (Danin, 1983). 57 Habitats and Ecology The heaviest daily rain’s amount was during the year 1937 and it was 76.2 mm in the month of November. Rainfall in St. Katherine is characterized by the irregularity patterns in both time and place, in one year the mean annual rainfall can reach 100mm and in the next year it reach only 10mm per/year (Omar et. al., 2012). The cold winter climate (minimum temperature can reach -10ºC) and cool summers (maximum about 29ºC) of the high elevations of Mt. St. Katherine is the coolest on the peninsula (Omar et al. 2013). The arid climate has a mean annual rainfall of about 37.5 mm (between 1971-2014), some in the form of snow, but there is great interannual variation with up to 300 mm in any one year, usually between October and May. Relative humidity is low, ranging from 10-35% (data for 2005-2014), and potential evaporation rates are very high, in excess of 20 mm/day during August (Map 4). Map 4. Climatic variables within SKP, 1- Annual Minimum Temperature, 2- Annual Maximum, and 3- Annual Precipitation. Results found that P. boveana grow in loamy sandy soil with average pH 8.3 (7.6-8.8), water content 1.4 (0.7-2.1), EC 903 μs/ cm (38-3390), organic matter 4.2% (1-7.8), CaCo3 16.3% (14-19), Mg 4.3 meq/L (1-11.5), HCo3 10.5 meq/L (5-14.3), Cl 7.9 meq/L (4.7-12.5), and So4 70 meq/L (275133), See Table 4. Table 4: Soil properties variation among different P. boveana subpopulation. Subpopulation habitat S.G.1 S.G.2 S.G.3 EC μs/ cm O.M .% 8.4 236 1.58 15 8.5 165 3.28 14.5 145 4.98 14 Micro- Cliff Slope Cliff Texture W.C. pH Loamy sand Loamy sand Loamy 1.5 0.7 2 8.6 CaCO3% Mg++ HCO3meq/L Clmeq/L SO4-meq/l 2 7.5 7.25 35.5 2 13.5 4.75 27.5 2 14.3 6.3 39.2 meq/L sand 58 Habitats and Ecology S.M.1 S.M.2 Cliff Cliff S.M.3 Cliff E.A. K.E. Gorge Cave A.H. Cliff Loamy Loamy Sandy loam Loamy sand Sandy Loamy 1.43 1.3 7.6 8.1 1086 898 1.02 4.41 15.5 16.5 11.5 4.5 11 11 12.5 5.25 108 98 2.1 8.6 460 7.8 17.5 3 12 8.4 43 0.94 1.03 7.8 3390 5.54 15.5 5 12.5 8 133 8.8 38 7.25 19 1 6 10 66.5 1.45 8.4 87 1.72 19 3.5 8 8 58.5 sand El-Nennah et al., (1981), Ramadan (1988), Kamh et al., (1989), Balba (1995), Moustafa and Zayed (1996) and Omar et al, (2012) reported also that soils of south Sinai are gravelly in wadis and plains, rocky in mountainous area, sandy to loamy sand in texture, alkaline, non-saline to slightly saline. They are characterized by low content of essential nutrients and CEC and this agrees with our result. Variation in soil prosperities within this study may be caused due the variation in topography, slopes and vegetation composition of the different sites (Schlesinger et al., 1996; Durnkerley and Brown, 1997). Variation in soil texture, drainage, exposure and countless other environmental factors can influence the intensities and abundances of species found in a particular habitat (Harper, 1977; Magurran, 1988). Since human activities have a strong effect on biodiversity, apopulation/community level approach is considered to be the level that can help in exploring the responses of the whole ecological system to various kinds of disturbance (Hanski and Gilpin, 1991; Barbault and Hochberg, 1992). The distribution, pattern and abundance of plant species and communities in desert environments have most often been related to three groups of factors; physical environmental variables affecting water availability, soil chemistry and anthropogenic disturbance. Physical factors include rainfall (Kadmon and Danin, 1999), soil moisture and texture (El-Demerdash et al., 1995 & Kumar, 1996), ground-water depth (Cornelius and Schultka, 1997), altitude (Burke, 2001), aspect, slope, topographic position and landform (Vetaas, 1993), and Aeolian and fluvial processes (Cornelius and Schultka, 1997). Vegetation parameters showed variation among different subpopulation; Density varied and ranged from 0.16 (Kahf Elghola) to 22 (subpopulation 1 in Shaq Mousa). Abundant ranged also from 4 (Kahf Elghola) to 535 (subpopulation 1 in Shaq Mousa). Cover ranged from 0.01 (Kahf Elghola) to 1.8 (subpopulation 2 in Shaq Mousa). Size Index ranged from 4.5 (Kahf Elghola) to 26 (Elgabal Elahmar). Because of its restricted micro-habitat, P. boveana is the dominant species in most sites, but its associated species are Adiantum capillus-veneris L., Mentha longifolia (L.) Huds., Hypericum sinaicum Boiss. and Juncus rigidus Desf. Primula boveana is a perennial herb with stems up to 50 cm long. The grayish-green leaves are spear-shaped, up to 20 cm long in a rosette. It bears several whorls of long-tubed, golden-yellow, scented flowers in late spring, and reproduction is by seed in late summer. Field observation showed that P. 59 Habitats and Ecology boveana starting the flowering season from the early of March and finish at the end of July when the fruiting season started in July and finish at the end of September and this agrees with (Omar and Elgamal 2014), See Table 5. Table 5: Vegetation characteristics of P. boveana within SKP. Subpopulation S.G.1 D. 0.92 A. 23 C. 0.09 S.I 6 Dominant Sp. Primula boveana S.G.2 5.04 141 S.G.3 3.92 98 0.99 10 Primula boveana 1.11 11.5 Primula boveana S.M.1 S.M.2 S.M.3 22 4.12 3.2 535 103 80 1.6 1.8 0.6 5 15.5 8.5 Primula boveana Primula boveana Primula boveana A. 0.8 20 1.4 28 Juncus rigidus K.E. 0.16 4 0.01 4.5 Associated Species Mentha longifolia, Juncus rigidus, Hypericum sinaicum, Scrophularia libanotica Nepeta septemcrenata, Mentha longifolia, Juncus rigidus, Origanum syriacum Mentha longifolia, Juncus rigidus, Origanum syriacum Mentha longifolia, Crataegus x sinaica Scrophularia libanotica Hypericum sinaicum, Mentha longifolia, Juncus rigidus, Scrophularia libanotica Adiantum capillus-veneris, Hypericum sinaicum, Phlomis aurea, Mentha longifolia Hypericum sinaicum, Mentha longifolia, Juncus rigidus Mentha longifolia, Juncus rigidus Adiantum capillus-veneris A.H. 0.24 6 0.01 6 Adiantum Capillus-veneris Note: S. G=Shaq Elgragenia, S. M=Shaq Mousa, A= Elgabal Elahmar, K. E= Kahf Elghola, A. H. = Sad Abu Hebik, D. = Density, A. = Abundant, C. = Cover, and S. I= Size Index. It was observed that Shaq Mousa contains the highest values in most variables (Population size, mature individuals, density, abundance, and cover); this may be explained as this site owning the best preferable suitable conditions for species to grow and distribute. The stability of the habitats of endemic species may have not only favoured their persistence but may also have contributed to trait evolution in endemic plants. The study by Lavergne et al. (2004) has also shown that endemic species have lower maternal fertility than their widespread congeners and floral traits associated with inbreeding. They also have fewer populations at the regional level than their widespread congeners. 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The main dangers worldwide are population growth and resource consumption, climate change and global warming, habitat conversion and urbanization, invasive alien species, over-exploitation of natural resources and environmental degradation. Every day species’ extinctions are continuing at up to 1,000 times or more the natural rate. The extinction of individual species, but also habitat destruction, land conversion for agriculture and development, climate change, pollution and the spread of invasive species are only some of the threats responsible for today's crisis (IUCN, 2010). With the current biodiversity loss, we are witnessing the greatest extinction crisis since dinosaurs disappeared from our planet 65 million years ago. Not only are these extinctions irreversible, but they also pose a serious threat to our health and wellbeing. Global warming is also considered to be a major potential threat to global biodiversity in the future (Kannan and James 2009). Climate change has seen many claims about potential to affect biodiversity but evidence supporting the statement is tenuous. Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide certainly affects plant morphology (Ainsworth and Long 2004) and is acidifying oceans (Doney et al. 2009), and temperature affects species ranges (Loarie et al. 2009, Walther et al. 2009, Thomas and Hannah (2005), phenology (Hegland et al. 2009), and weather (Min et al. 2011), but the major impacts that have been predicted are still just potential impacts. We have not documented major extinctions yet, even as climate change drastically alters the biology of many species. In 2004, an international collaborative study on four continents estimated that 10 percent of species would become extinct by 2050 because of global warming. "We need to limit climate change or we wind up with a lot of species in trouble, possibly extinct," said Dr. Lee Hannah, a co-author of the paper and chief climate change biologist at the Center for Applied Biodiversity Science at Conservation International (Brown, 2004). By knowing that biodiversity is strongly affected by climate change so we need to make additional efforts to minimize the negative influence of other factors. This way we can ensure that ecosystems are less vulnerable and more resilient to the increasing threat posed by climate change. But climate change can also largely benefit from conserved biodiversity and particularly healthy ecosystems when these are placed at the very centre of the efforts to tackle climate change (IUCN, 2010). Through absorbing and storing carbon in a range of terrestrial and marine ecosystems, such as forests, peatlands and other wetlands, biodiversity contributes to climate change mitigation- by 66 Threats storing carbon dioxide. Biodiversity also helps people to adapt to climate change through providing the ecosystem services which reduce their vulnerability and enhance their adaptive capacity to change. This includes the coastal protection provided by coastal mangrove forests from flooding and coastal erosion caused by sea-level rise and more powerful storms (IUCN 2010). The threat of climate change include the direct impacts on habitat, ecosystem functioning and populations of higher concentrations of carbon dioxide; altered rainfall and temperature patterns; and more frequent extreme storms, floods and heat waves. Many species are highly sensitive to changes in climate and weather-related patterns and events. These can disrupt seasonal food supplies and other resources, life cycle events, development, mortality, breeding and fertility, such that entire reproductive strategies become less successful. Expected direct impacts on species populations include: changes in species abundance, changes in distribution, and changes in genetics over the long term as species adapt (Commonwealth of Australia 2009). The ability of species to adapt to changing conditions and recover after extreme climatic events will be compromised by the legacy of fragmentation, habitat loss and other pressures that have collectively reduced overall diversity, population sizes, and resilience in many species (Commonwealth of Australia 2009). It is estimated that there are around 400.000 plant species in the world, and at least 25% are threatened with extinction. Humans are the main cause of extinction and the principle threat to species at risk of extinction. Since they are often confined to very small areas, and sometimes to unusual and sensitive habitats within these localities, many endemic species are endangered. Among the threats they face are land use by humans for agriculture or building, and invasive species introduced either intentionally or accidentally. Biogeographical studies can be a way for biologists to defend a dwindling organism against encroachment on its habitat from human communities or commercial activity. A life form whose sole habitat is under attack can be classified as an endangered species. If the total population is below a certain number, it might be classified as critically endangered (Leverkuhn, 2014). Feral donkeys, plant over collection, tourist intrusions (e.g. trespassing beyond trail borders and collection of firewood during camping), overgrazing, collection for scientific research, urbanization and settlement expansion and quarries were recorded by Assi (2007) as the main threats on vegetation in SKP. Assi (2207) and Khafagi (2013) had found that most root causes of threats come from lack of awareness, weak law enforcement, lack of suitable strategies, weak financial support, and lack of stakeholder’s cooperation. These results confirm the results of Assi (2007). Drought, feral donkeys and over collection are the most harmful threats for vegetation in SKP. To achieve these solutions and decrease the effect of previous threats within study area, 67 Threats Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (EEAA) must improve the annual budget of SKP and insert new departments within SKP organization. The threat from feral donkeys is aggravated by the fact that these feral animals cause further destruction to the variety of plant species just by continuous walking over and trespassing (Khafaja et al., 2006). Most Bedouins consume many of those plants mainly as herbal infusion. However, overharvesting is to a large extent exerted by commercial collectors and not by collections for personal use. The quantities collected for personal use are minor compared to those collected for trade (Assi, 2007). Successful tourism attracts migrant labor, aggravating pressure on infrastructure and environmental resources. Even ecotourism can degrade the environment, because many of the places visited by ecotourists support fragile ecosystems (Budowski, 1976). Structures in ecologically fragile areas destroy habitats. Access roads are often more destructive than the tourist projects themselves. Many plant species are threatened due to cessation of grazing and mowing (Rassi et al., 2001 and Oostermeijer, 2003). This suggests that grazing and mowing are also important for maintaining plant species richness on broader spatial scales. Several explanations have been proposed for high plant species richness of grazed and mowed areas (Gigon & Leutert, 1996 and Olff & Ritchie, 1998). Bedouins used to have their own system of protection (Hilf): An agreement to close an area to prevent grazing for a certain period. Now because of Bedouins’ settlement, overgrazing became a threat because of the limited area for grazing around the settlements- although the average size of herd decreased from 50 in old days to 10 nowadays as indicated by many stakeholders (Assi, 2007). Collection of plants for research resulting from increased interest at the national and international levels in studying the active ingredients and other characteristics of medicinal plants (MPs) species (particularly endemic and rare species). Also researchers are interested in conducting their studies on sources obtained from the wild and not from cultivation (Assi, 2007). The vegetation in Saint Katherine Protectorate has been subjected to disturbance through the human activities including "overgrazing, uprooting, tourism quarrying and over-exploitation". The aim of this part is to identify and rank the different threats, and to identify their underlying root causes, as well as the barriers, affecting the conservation of the medicinal plants specially Primula boveana within the rich areas of SKP, and we will focus on the definition of some terms related to threats according to IUCN guidelines and will use P. boveana as case study. 68 Threats METHODOLOGY: In this part, we will extract our data from former studies like Assi (2207) and Khafagi (2013) who worked on plant threats in SKP. From these studies, we extracted 7 main threats affecting the distribution of wild plants within SKP. They used a systematic sampling approach to capture local environmental gradients, placing 237 circles with 10 m diameters at equal distances apart to cover most area around St. Catherine City which containing the hottest spots for vegetation inside SKP. Within each circle, they recorded within the field that may be a threat to the plant community. Each threat was evaluated as follows: 1. Feral Donkeys: Using the methods of Alqamy, (2005); Hatab, (2009) and Omar et al., (2012), numbers of dung (droppings) of donkeys were counted at each circle to frequency of animal presence. 2. Over collection: At each circle they recorded any sign of plant collection for the purposes of trade as medicinal plants, fuel or any economic value. Also assessment through meetings and interviews with the relevant stakeholders (collectors, traders and eco guides) will cover the medicinal plants rich sites within SKP and identify the hot spots. 3. Tourist Intrusions: At each site they recorded any tourism activity (paths, camping, rest points and wastes) and ranked each point by density level (How much area it cover) (Very low 20%, Low 40%, Medium 60%, High 80% and Very high >80%). 4. Overgrazing: Level of grazing was measured by dung abundance and ranked each point by density level (How much area it cover) (Very low 20%, Low 40%, Medium 60%, High 80% and Very high >80%).) Mammal dung was surveyed by recording the species concerned (mainly camel, goat, ibex, and fox) and the number of droppings (Alqamy, 2005 and Omar et al., 2012). 5. Collection for Scientific Research: They recorded all sites and target species of scientific interest by universities, research centers and scientific scholarships within SKP by reviewing reports and notifications from EIA (Environmental Impact Assessment) created by SKP staff. 6. Urbanization and Settlement Expansion: In this factor they used several approaches. First, using satellite images available in Google Earth 6.0.1.2032 (beta) with build date 2010, they observed settlements, roads and gardens and characterized them according to boundaries and density. Second, they carried out field assessment to detect any expansion (buildings, dams, wells and roads). Third, they carried out meeting with stockholders (City committee) to identify the hot spot sites defined as high impact area. 7. Quarries: They recorded all quarrying sites within SKP and created maps describing the exposed area for its impact of each site. 69 Threats Underlying threat root causes, barriers and solutions. For each threat, they assigned the root causes, barriers, area, intensity, urgency, total ranking and categorical threat level. The above terms will describe as follows: Root causes: These are the underlying factors, usually social, economic, political, institutional, or cultural in nature, which enable or otherwise contribute to the occurrence and/or persistence of direct threats (IUCN definition). There is typically a chain of underlying causes behind any given direct threat. Barriers: These are constraints (institutional, legal, technical, knowledge), which limit effective conservation of MPs. A = Area: Approximate proportion of the overall area of a site likely to be affected by a threat under current circumstances (i.e. given the continuation of the existing situation). *Since there are 8 direct threats, the highest ranked threat for “Area” receives a score of 8, and the lowest ranked threat receives a score of 1 I = Intensity: refers to the impact of the threat within a micro-site. Will the threat completely destroy the habitat in a small locality, or will it only cause minor changes (i.e. given the continuation of the existing situation). Since there are 8 direct threats, the highest ranked threat for “Intensity” receives a score of 8, and the lowest ranked threat receives a score of 1 . U = Urgency: The importance of taking immediate action to counter the threat. Since there are 8 direct threats, the highest ranked threat for “Urgency” receives a score of 8, and the lowest ranked threat receives a score of 1. TR = Total Ranking: Sum of Area + Intensity + Urgency. Threat Level: Threat levels have been arranged as: 1- Very High (rating above 20): The threat is likely to be very widespread or pervasive in its scope, is likely to destroy or eliminate the conservation target over some portion of the target’s occurrence at the site and seriously affect the conservation target throughout the target’s occurrence at the site. The threat must be countered immediately or limited action today will likely mitigate much more intensive action in the future. 2- High (rating between 15 and 20): The threat is likely to be widespread in its scope, to seriously degrade and affect the conservation target at many of its locations at the site. The threat must be countered in the next 5 years OR limited action in the next 5 years will likely mitigate much more intensive action in the future. 3- Medium (rating between 9 and 14): The threat is likely to be localized in its scope, to moderately degrade and affect the conservation target at some of the target’s locations at the site. The threat probably will need to be countered in the next 5-10 years. 4- Low (below 9): The threat is likely to be very localized in its scope, is likely to only slightly impair and affect the conservation target 70 Threats within a limited portion of the target’s location at the site. The threat does not need to be countered in the next 10 years. Timing, scope, severity, and impact score for each threat were determined according to IUCN Threats Classification Scheme (IUCN, 2014). RESULTS: Threats hotspots and effect: 1. Feral Donkeys A total of 129 (54.4%) sites out of 237 were affected by feral donkeys. Twenty five (10.5%) sites had a high frequency of donkey occurrence, 45 (18.9%) had a medium level, 45 (18.9%) had a low level, 14 (5.9%) had a very low level and 108 (45.6%) sites had no donkey droppings. It was observed that donkey’s distribution affected by vegetation cover (donkeys concentrated on areas with high vegetation cover) which affecting by good water supply and showed negative relation with Bedouin community distribution (distributed away from human presence). Sites located within elevations ranging from 1800 m to 2000 m such as Abu Tweita, Wadi Gebal, Farsh Elromana and Farsh Messila recorded the highest presence for donkeys (Map 5b). Grazing by these usually causes uprooting of the plants as indicated by Bedouins and field observations and this prevents plant regrowth. Soil compaction is associated with use by these animals and causes destruction to a variety of plant species through continuous trampling (Khafaja et al., 2006). The field observations showed that feral donkeys grazed on a very wide spectrum of plant species compared with goats and camels; however, the numbers of feral donkeys have decreased sharply compared with the results of Assi, (2007). The local community explained this was due to the sharp decrease in water supply. In spite of all this influence, P. boveana do not affect by the presence of this threats because of the special microhabitat (cliffs) and because that most species subpopulation are found away from threat hotspots and protected inside fenced enclosures (Map 5b). 2. Over collection. Fifty-eight sites (24.4%) of 237 were affected by plant collection. One site 0.4%) had a high level of plant collection, 10 (4.2%) had a medium level, 16 (6.7%) had a low level, 32 (13.5%) had very low collection pressure and 178 (75%) sites showed no observations for plant collection. Locations like Abo Hebik, Elgalt Elazrak, Abu Tweita, Sherige, Shak Musa, Elmesirdi and wadi Eltalaa are most targeted for collection (Map 5d). These sites are characterized by high plant productivity and water supply; however, the collecting of plants increased with precipitation and was concentrated 71 Threats between March and December each year (flowering season). It was observed that collecting of plants may be affected by economic factors. In other words, when tourism levels fall, Bedouin start to collect plants for income. Results obtained from local communities showed that women are the most common collectors of plants, and they collect 5 times per season. Although the reasons for collecting these plants are always for trade or personal use as fuel, the use of plants as fuel has decreased sharply with the advent of butagaz. Results showed that Origanum syriacum, Mentha longifolia, Salvia multicaulis, Chiliadenus montanus, Crataegus x sinaica and Thymus decussatus are the most collected species for trade within the study area because of their medicinal value. Hand picking of plant species is widely practiced as indicated by stakeholders, particularly collectors, which increases the rate of uprooting instead of using pruning shears. Collections of some species, such as Origanum syriacum and Salvia multicaulis, are limited to flowers. This could impact a plant species’ life cycle and decrease the population size with time. It was observed that most collectors collect species with medicinal or economic value for personal consumption; however, the amount collected for this purpose is small compared with amounts collected for trade. Bedouin mentioned that P. boveana with its great medicinal importance is still unused and not collected by local communities for folk medicine in SKP. 3. Tourist Intrusions. Two hundred one sites (84.8%) out of 237 were affected by tourism. Thirty eight sites (16%) had a high level of tourism, 47 (19.9%) had a medium level, 72 (30.3%) had a low level, 44 (18.5%) had a very low level and 36 (15%) sites showed no observations of tourism. Wadi Gebal, Farsh Elromana, Elgalt Elazrak, Abu Tweita, Wadi Tenia, Wadi Sherige and Wady Eltalaa were the sites with the highest levels of tourism (Map 5f). About 3 million people from 51 nationalities visited SKP from 2003 to 2011 with an average 335.000 people per year. Most of them focused on the northern part of SKP, a world heritage site. Many of the tourists do safari and camp in remote areas; usually safaris extend for many days using different camping sites; the most camping sites are in Firsh Elromana, Wadi Tenia, and Wadi Gebal. Some of the negative impacts associated with tourists include collecting medicinal plants as souvenirs from the SKP and plant collection for fuel. Soil compactions due to trespassing leads to poor vegetation cover and results from trampling. Garbage also may lead to deterioration in species growth. Camping takes place in sheltered sites which provide water sources for tourists. 4. Grazing analysis: Results showed that the animals recorded within the greatest number of sites in the study area were goats followed by camels. A total of 158 sites 72 Threats (66.6%) out of 237 were affected by goats. Twenty eight sites (11.8%) had a high level of goat presence, 21 (8.8%) had a medium level, 69 (29.1%) had a low level, 39 (16.4%) had a very low level and 79 (33%) sites showed no observations for goat dung. Elmesirdi, Sheiage, Elahmar and Shak Musa had the most sites with goat’s presence which can be explained by their proximity to local community settlements (Map 5a). There was significantly more domestic mammal dung (goats (58%) and camels (39%)) encountered than native mammal dung and this agrees with results observed by Guenther et al. (2005) and Omar et al. (2012). There were 18 plant families that showed heavy grazing; Asteraceae (33.3%), Lamiaceae (22.2%), Brassicaceae (16.6%) and Caryophyllaceae (16.6%) were the predominant families among grazed plants. Results showed that Tebok, Abo Twita, Ain Shekia, Shak Sakr and Elmesirdy had the highest number of grazed plants among the different locations. These locations are having high levels of tourism and other human activities which are compounded by the presence of camels and donkeys used as transportation to and from historical sites. Bedouin communities are also settled beside these locations and this increases goat presence in these locations. There is no records that P. bovaena affected by any kind of grazing in this study or through our field observation. 5. Collection for Scientific Research. A very low number of sites were affected by collection for scientific research (e.g, for the purpose of herbarium specimens, phytochemistry or genetics). The research that affected the most sites was the collection of specimens for herbaria. The collectors sometimes collected a big amount of plants complete with flowering parts and roots. Also, collection for phytochemistry requires more than a kilo for good extraction (traditional knowledge). Results showed that the most affected sites were Wadi Tennia, Abu Tweita, Elmesirdi, Abu Kasaba, Shak Musa and Elgalt Elazrak (Map 5c). It was recorded that our target species is highly affected by this threats. Kahf Elghola was the main site for this species in the past but now only 4 seedlings are present as a result from un managed scientific research which focus in his study on endangered species as it give a value for their study. 6. Urbanization and Settlements Expansion. The entire study area is located within a high mountain area, which is far from cities and Bedouin settlements. Within our study area, we recorded human activities, including destruction of rocks for building gardens and digging wells; the sites with the most frequent effects of human settlement were Abu Twita and Zawitein (Map 5e). Main roads (asphalt roads) located and ending in SK City are also far from the study area. Bedouin gardens were distributed at all sites within the study 73 Threats area but had the highest frequency at Wadi Gebal, Farsh Elromana, Wady Tenia, and Farsh Messila. Primula boveana distributed away from urbanization, there is no negative impact from this threat on our plant. However, human modification was the extent of water cannons relocating water from elevated wadies rich in water supply to low wadies. This activity leads to consume and loss of water from wells which directly affect the plant population size resulting from consuming the water around Primula habitat and lead to extreme deterioration. 7. Quarries. No quarries were recorded within study area; all quarries are concentrated at the southern part of SKP (Wadi Elkabila, Wadi Elsamaa, Wadi Om Adawy and Al-Nheid. Map 5. Hotspots for main threats in SKP, A- Overgrazing , B- Distribution of feral donkeys, CScientific research, D- Over collecting, E- Urbanization, and F- tourism. Threat ranking and level of effect: In general, feral donkeys, over collection, tourist intrusions, and overgrazing are the most threats influence the distribution of plants in SKP. however, unmanaged collection for scientific research is the most harmful threat on Primula boveana (Table 6). Table 6. Threat Analysis (TA) for SKP vegetation and P. boveana as well. Threats Criteria Rankings Area Intensity V. P. V. P. 3 0 6 0 5 1 5 1 5 3 6 3 4 0 4 0 3 5 3 5 Feral Donkeys Over collection Tourist Intrusions Overgrazing Collection for Scientific research Urbanization & Settlements 3 1 3 Expansion Quarries 1 0 1 Pests and disease 5 4 3 Note: V.- vegetation of SKP, and P. Primula boveana. Urgency V. P. 5 0 5 1 3 4 4 0 2 6 Total Ranking V. P. 14 0 15 3 14 10 12 0 8 16 Threat level V. P. Medium None Medium Very Low Medium Medium Medium None Low High 2 3 2 9 5 Medium Low 0 4 1 2 0 3 3 10 0 11 Low Medium None Medium 74 Threats Underlying threat root causes, barriers and solutions: From the previous results (Assi, 2007 and Khafagi et al. 2013) and from data collected from local communities we can conclude and discuss all threats, root causes, barriers, and solutions in the following table (Table 7). Table 7. Different threats root causes, barriers and solutions. 75 Threats 76 Threats From the previous threat results we can conclude that most root causes of threats come from lack of awareness, weak law enforcement, lack of suitable strategies, weak financial support and lack of stakeholder’s cooperation. To achieve these solutions and decrease the effect of previous threats within study area, Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency must improve the annual budget of SKP and insert new departments within SKP organization. Because of climate change, the wild population of P. boveana could be in extreme danger in the relatively near future. The most important natural threats are the long-lasting droughts, the very scarce irregular precipitation during the year, the fragmentation inherent to its habitat, and the possibility that rare floods may cause harm such as uprooting (5% loss observed). Apart from climate change, the most important human impacts are reductions in water availability caused by collection for human consumption from t he nearby areas, possible sheep and goat grazing, insect pests that eat the vegetative parts and may cause reductions in plant vigor (observed), and a species of ant that collects the seeds, perhaps causing reductions in the reproductive rate (Table 8, Figure 9). Table 8: IUCN Threats Classification Scheme for P. boveana within SKP. Threat Tourism & recreation areas Timing Ongoing Scope Minority (< 50%) Gathering terrestrial plants -Intentional use (species is the target) Gathering terrestrial plants Persecution/control Human intrusions & disturbance - Work & other activities Dams & water management/use Abstraction of ground water (domestic use) Droughts Ongoing Minority (< 50%) Ongoing Minority (< 50%) Ongoing Minority (< 50%) Ongoing Minority (< 50%) Ongoing Whole (> 9 0%) Temperature extremes Ongoing Whole (> 9 0%) Storms & flooding Ongoing Whole (> 9 0%) 77 Severity Causing/Could cause fluctuations Slow, Significant Declines Slow, Significant Declines Slow, Significant Declines Slow, Significant Declines Impact Score Low Impact Very Rapid Declines Very Rapid Declines Very Rapid Declines High Impact Low Impact Low Impact Low Impact Low Impact High Impact High Impact Threats Figure 9. Threats on Primula boveana, A- Pests, B- Floods, C- Tourism, and DDrought. Former studies found that species subpopulations have very low genetic variation among individuals within them, and gene flow between them must be extremely low or actually zero: conversely, genetic differentiation among the subpopulations is high (Jime´nez et al. 2014). It may self-fertilize most of the time, apparently with little or no detrimental effects (Al Wadi and Richards 1993, Jime´nez et al. 2014). Probably deleterious alleles have been purged a long time ago, making inbreeding depression, possibly not a major problem today, although possibly restricting its ability to evolve in response to environmental change (Jime´nez et al. 2014). The sharp decline in population size, number of total individuals, number of mature individuals, and habitat of this species may came from the changing in the world climate, which increase the effect of the main threat to this species (drought). Many explanations found that global warming represents perhaps the most pervasive of the various threats to the planet’s biodiversity, given its potential to affect even areas far from human habitation. Despite this and recent reports outlining the extensive biological changes that are ongoing because of the warming (Parmesan and Yohe 2003), few efforts have been made to assess the potential effects of greenhouse warming on terrestrial biodiversity at a global scale (Noss, 2001). A recent exception is (Thomas et al. 2014), who used a climateenvelope modeling approach to look at the potential future distributions of 1103 species in six regions. Their work suggests that restricted-range endemic species may be especially vulnerable, which is notable given recent efforts to prioritize conservation at the global scale by identifying biodiversity hotspots that are of particular value based on their high species richness and endemism. 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Red List Category & Criteria Chapter 5 Red List Category & Criteria INTRODUCTION: The IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria are intended to be an easily and widely understood system for classifying species at high risk of global extinction. The general aim of the system is to provide an explicit, objective framework for the classification of the broadest range of species according to their extinction risk. However, while the Red List may focus attention on those taxa at the highest risk, it is not the sole means of setting priorities for conservation measures for their protection. Extensive consultation and testing in the development of the system strongly suggest that it is robust across most organisms. However, it should be noted that although the system places species into the threatened categories with a high degree of consistency, the criteria do not take into account the life histories of every species. Hence, in certain individual cases, the risk of extinction may be under- or over-estimated (IUCN, 2012 and 2014). Before 1994 the more subjective threatened species categories used in IUCN Red Data Books and Red Lists had been in place, with some modification, for almost 30 years. Although the need to revise the categories had long been recognized (Fitter and Fitter 1987), the current phase of development only began in 1989 following a request from the IUCN Species Survival Commission (SSC) Steering Committee to develop a more objective approach. The IUCN Council adopted the new Red List system in 1994. The IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria have several specific aims: to provide a system that can be applied consistently by different people; to improve objectivity by providing users with clear guidance on how to evaluate different factors which affect the risk of extinction; to provide a system which will facilitate comparisons across widely different taxa; to give people using threatened species lists a better understanding of how individual species were classified. Since their adoption by IUCN Council in 1994, the IUCN Red List Categories have become widely recognized internationally, and they are now used in a range of publications and listings produced by IUCN, as well as by numerous governmental and non-governmental organizations. Such broad and extensive use revealed the need for a number of improvements, and SSC was mandated by the 1996 World Conservation Congress (WCC Res. 1.4) to conduct a review of the system (IUCN 1996). This document presents the revisions accepted by the IUCN Council. The proposals presented in this document result from a continuing process of drafting, consultation and validation (IUCN, 2012). 82 Red List Category & Criteria The production of a large number of draft proposals has led to some confusion, especially as each draft has been used for classifying some set of species for conservation purposes. To clarify matters, and to open the way for modifications as and when they become necessary, a system for version numbering has been adopted as follows: Version 1.0: Mace and Lande (1991) The first paper discussing a new basis for the categories, and presenting numerical criteria especially relevant for large vertebrates. Version 2.0: Mace et al. (1992) A major revision of Version 1.0, including numerical criteria appropriate to all organisms and introducing the non-threatened categories. Version 2.1: IUCN (1993) Following an extensive consultation process within SSC, a number of changes were made to the details of the criteria, and fuller explanation of basic principles was included. A more explicit structure clarified the significance of the nonthreatened categories Version 2.2: Mace and Stuart (1994) Following further comments received and additional validation exercises, some minor changes to the criteria were made. In addition, the Susceptible category present in Versions 2.0 and 2.1 was subsumed into the Vulnerable category. A precautionary application of the system was emphasised. Version 2.3: IUCN (1994) IUCN Council adopted this version, which incorporated changes as a result of comments from IUCN members, in December 1994. The initial version of this document was published without the necessary bibliographic details, such as date of publication and ISBN number, but these were included in the subsequent reprints in 1998 and 1999. This version was used for the 1996 IUCN Red List of Threatened Animals (Baillie and Groombridge 1996), The World List of Threatened Trees (Oldfield et al. 1998) and the 2000 IUCN Red List of Threatened Species (Hilton-Taylor 2000). Version 3.0: IUCN/SSC Criteria Review Working Group (1999) Following comments received, a series of workshops were convened to look at the IUCN Red List Criteria following which, changes were proposed affecting the criteria, the definitions of some key terms and the handling of uncertainty. Version 3.1: IUCN (2001) The IUCN Council adopted this latest version, which incorporated changes as a result of comments from the IUCN and SSC memberships and from a final meeting of the Criteria Review Working Group, in February 2000. All new assessments from January 2001 should use the latest adopted version and cite the year of publication and version number. 83 Red List Category & Criteria The first edition of the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria: Version 3.1 was published in 2001, after its formal adoption by the IUCN Council in February 2000. Since then it has been used as the standard for global Red List assessments published on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. It is also used alongside the Guidelines for Application of IUCN Red List Criteria at Regional and National Levels (IUCN 2003, 2012), by many countries around the world as a standard system for national Red List assessments. Over the last decade, the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria have been used to assess an increasingly more diverse range of taxa occurring in a wide variety of habitats. In addition, ongoing technological advances continue to provide more scope for improving data analysis. Therefore it is necessary for the IUCN Red List to adapt to maintain and further develop its usefulness as a conservation tool. However, it is also essential that the central rules for assessing extinction risk for the IUCN Red List remain stable to be able to compare changes in Red List status over time (IUCN, 2014). In this part, we will focus on the definition of some terms related to Red List Category & Criteria according to IUCN guidelines and will use Primula boveana as case study. Terminology in use according to IUCN 2014: THE CATEGORIES A representation of the relationships between the categories is shown in Figure 10. EXTINCT (EX) A taxon is Extinct when there is no reasonable doubt that the last individual has died. A taxon is presumed Extinct when exhaustive surveys in known and/or expected habitat, at appropriate times (diurnal, seasonal, annual), throughout its historic range have failed to record an individual. Surveys should be over a time frame appropriate to the taxon’s life cycle and life form. EXTINCT IN THE WILD (EW) A taxon is Extinct in the Wild when it is known only to survive in cultivation, in captivity or as a naturalized population (or populations) well outside the past range. A taxon is presumed Extinct in the Wild when exhaustive surveys in known and/or expected habitat, at appropriate times (diurnal, seasonal, annual), throughout its historic range have failed to record an individual. Surveys should be over a time frame appropriate to the taxon’s life cycle and life form. CRITICALLY ENDANGERED (CR) A taxon is Critically Endangered when the best available evidence indicates that it meets any of the criteria A to E for Critically Endangered, and it is therefore considered to be facing an extremely high risk of extinction in the wild. ENDANGERED (EN) A taxon is Endangered when the best available evidence indicates that it meets any of the criteria A to E for Endangered, and it is therefore considered to be facing a very 84 Red List Category & Criteria high risk of extinction in the wild. VULNERABLE (VU) A taxon is Vulnerable when the best available evidence indicates that it meets any of the criteria A to E for Vulnerable, and it is therefore considered to be facing a high risk of extinction in the wild. NEAR THREATENED (NT) A taxon is Near Threatened when it has been evaluated against the criteria but does not qualify for Critically Endangered, Endangered or Vulnerable now, but is close to qualifying for or is likely to qualify for a threatened category in the near future. LEAST CONCERN (LC) A taxon is Least Concern when it has been evaluated against the criteria and does not qualify for Critically Endangered, Endangered, Vulnerable or Near Threatened. Widespread and abundant taxa are included in this category. DATA DEFICIENT (DD) A taxon is Data Deficient when there is inadequate information to make a direct, or indirect, assessment of its risk of extinction based on its distribution and/or population status. A taxon in this category may be well studied, and its biology well known, but appropriate data on abundance and/or distribution are lacking. Data Deficient is therefore not a category of threat. Listing of taxa in this category indicates that more information is required and acknowledges the possibility that future research will show that threatened classification is appropriate. NOT EVALUATED (NE) A taxon is Not Evaluated when it has not yet been evaluated against the criteria. Figure 10. Structure of the categories according to IUCN (2014). 85 Red List Category & Criteria V. THE CRITERIA FOR CRITICALLY ENDANGERED, ENDANGERED, AND VULNERABLE CRITICALLY ENDANGERED (CR) A taxon is Critically Endangered when the best available evidence indicates that it meets any of the following criteria (A to E), and it is therefore considered to be facing an extremely high risk of extinction in the wild: A. Reduction in population size based on any of the following: 1. An observed, estimated, inferred or suspected population size reduction of 2:90% over the last 10 years or three generations, whichever is the longer, where the causes of the reduction are clearly reversible AND understood AND ceased, based on (and specifying) any of the following: (a) direct observation (b) an index of abundance appropriate to the taxon (c) a decline in area of occupancy, extent of occurrence and/or quality of habitat (d) actual or potential levels of exploitation (e) the effects of introduced taxa, hybridization, pathogens, pollutants, competitors or parasites. 2. An observed, estimated, inferred or suspected population size reduction of 2:80% over the last 10 years or three generations, whichever is the longer, where the reduction or its causes may not have ceased OR may not be understood OR may not be reversible, based on (and specifying) any of (a) to (e) under A1. 3. A population size reduction of 2:80%, projected or suspected to be met within the next 10 years or three generations, whichever is the longer (up to a maximum of 100 years), based on (and specifying) any of (b) to (e) under A1. 4. An observed, estimated, inferred, projected or suspected population size reduction of 2:80% over any 10 year or three generation period, whichever is longer (up to a maximum of 100 years in the future), where the time period must include both the past and the future, and where the reduction or its causes may not have ceased OR may not be understood OR may not be reversible, based on (and specifying) any of (a) to (e) under A1. B. Geographic range in the form of either B1 (extent of occurrence) OR B2 (area of occupancy) OR both: 1. Extent of occurrence estimated to be less than 100 km2, and estimates indicating at least two of a-c: a. Severely fragmented or known to exist at only a single location. b. Continuing decline, observed, inferred or projected, in any of the following: (i) extent of occurrence (ii) area of occupancy (iii) area, extent and/or quality of habitat (iv) number of locations or subpopulations (v) number of mature individuals. c. Extreme fluctuations in any of the following: 86 Red List Category & Criteria (i) extent of occurrence (ii) area of occupancy (iii) number of locations or subpopulations (iv) number of mature individuals. 2. Area of occupancy estimated to be less than 10 km2, and estimate indicating at least two of a-c: a. Severely fragmented or known to exist at only a single location. b. Continuing decline, observed, inferred or projected, in any of the following: (i) extent of occurrence (ii) area of occupancy (iii) area, extent and/or quality of habitat (iv) number of locations or subpopulations (v) number of mature individuals. c. Extreme fluctuations in any of the following: (i) extent of occurrence (ii) area of occupancy (iii) number of locations or subpopulations (iv) number of mature individuals. C. Population size estimated to number fewer than 250 mature individuals and either: 1. An estimated continuing decline of at least 25% within three years or one generation, whichever is longer, (up to a maximum of 100 years in the future) OR 2. A continuing decline, observed, projected, or inferred, in numbers of mature individuals AND at least one of the following (a-b): a. Population structure in the form of one of the following: (i) no subpopulation estimated to contain more than 50 mature individuals, OR (ii) at least 90% of mature individuals in one subpopulation. b. Extreme fluctuations in number of mature individuals. D. Population size estimated to number fewer than 50 mature individuals. E. Quantitative analysis showing the probability of extinction in the wild is at least 50% within 10 years or three generations, whichever is the longer (up to a maximum of 100 years). ENDANGERED (EN) A taxon is Endangered when the best available evidence indicates that it meets any of the following criteria (A to E), and it is therefore considered to be facing an extremely high risk of extinction in the wild: A. Reduction in population size based on any of the following: 1. An observed, estimated, inferred or suspected population size reduction of 2:70% over the last 10 years or three generations, whichever is the longer, where the causes of the reduction are clearly reversible AND understood AND ceased, 87 Red List Category & Criteria based on (and specifying) any of the following: (a) direct observation (b) an index of abundance appropriate to the taxon (c) a decline in area of occupancy, extent of occurrence and/or quality of habitat (d) actual or potential levels of exploitation (e) the effects of introduced taxa, hybridization, pathogens, pollutants, competitors or parasites. 2. An observed, estimated, inferred or suspected population size reduction of 2:50% over the last 10 years or three generations, whichever is the longer, where the reduction or its causes may not have ceased OR may not be understood OR may not be reversible, based on (and specifying) any of (a) to (e) under A1. 3. A population size reduction of 2:50%, projected or suspected to be met within the next 10 years or three generations, whichever is the longer (up to a maximum of 100 years), based on (and specifying) any of (b) to (e) under A1. 4. An observed, estimated, inferred, projected or suspected population size reduction of 2:50% over any 10 year or three generation period, whichever is longer (up to a maximum of 100 years in the future), where the time period must include both the past and the future, and where the reduction or its causes may not have ceased OR may not be understood OR may not be reversible, based on (and specifying) any of (a) to (e) under A1. B. Geographic range in the form of either B1 (extent of occurrence) OR B2 (area of occupancy) OR both: 1. Extent of occurrence estimated to be less than 5000 km2, and estimates indicating at least two of a-c: a. Severely fragmented or known to exist at no more than five locations.. b. Continuing decline, observed, inferred or projected, in any of the following: (i) extent of occurrence (ii) area of occupancy (iii) area, extent and/or quality of habitat (iv) number of locations or subpopulations (v) number of mature individuals. c. Extreme fluctuations in any of the following: (i) extent of occurrence (ii) area of occupancy (iii) number of locations or subpopulations (iv) number of mature individuals. 2. Area of occupancy estimated to be less than 500 km2, and estimate indicating at least two of a-c: a. Severely fragmented or known to exist at no more than five locations. b. Continuing decline, observed, inferred or projected, in any of the following: 88 Red List Category & Criteria (i) extent of occurrence (ii) area of occupancy (iii) area, extent and/or quality of habitat (iv) number of locations or subpopulations (v) number of mature individuals. c. Extreme fluctuations in any of the following: (i) extent of occurrence (ii) area of occupancy (iii) number of locations or subpopulations (iv) number of mature individuals. C. Population size estimated to number fewer than 2500 mature individuals and either: 1. An estimated continuing decline of at least 20% within three years or one generation, whichever is longer, (up to a maximum of 100 years in the future) OR 2. A continuing decline, observed, projected, or inferred, in numbers of mature individuals AND at least one of the following (a-b): a. Population structure in the form of one of the following: (i) no subpopulation estimated to contain more than 250 mature individuals, OR (ii) at least 95% of mature individuals in one subpopulation. b. Extreme fluctuations in number of mature individuals. D. Population size estimated to number fewer than 250 mature individuals. E. Quantitative analysis showing the probability of extinction in the wild is at least 20% within 10 years or three generations, whichever is the longer (up to a maximum of 100 years). VULNERABLE (VU) A taxon is Vulnerable when the best available evidence indicates that it meets any of the following criteria (A to E), and it is therefore considered to be facing an extremely high risk of extinction in the wild: A. Reduction in population size based on any of the following: 1. An observed, estimated, inferred or suspected population size reduction of 2:50% over the last 10 years or three generations, whichever is the longer, where the causes of the reduction are clearly reversible AND understood AND ceased, based on (and specifying) any of the following: (a) direct observation (b) an index of abundance appropriate to the taxon (c) a decline in area of occupancy, extent of occurrence and/or quality of habitat (d) actual or potential levels of exploitation (e) the effects of introduced taxa, hybridization, pathogens, pollutants, competitors or parasites. 2. An observed, estimated, inferred or suspected population size reduction of 2:30% 89 Red List Category & Criteria over the last 10 years or three generations, whichever is the longer, where the reduction or its causes may not have ceased OR may not be understood OR may not be reversible, based on (and specifying) any of (a) to (e) under A1. 3. A population size reduction of 2:30%, projected or suspected to be met within the next 10 years or three generations, whichever is the longer (up to a maximum of 100 years), based on (and specifying) any of (b) to (e) under A1. 4. An observed, estimated, inferred, projected or suspected population size reduction of 2:30% over any 10 year or three generation period, whichever is longer (up to a maximum of 100 years in the future), where the time period must include both the past and the future, and where the reduction or its causes may not have ceased OR may not be understood OR may not be reversible, based on (and specifying) any of (a) to (e) under A1. B. Geographic range in the form of either B1 (extent of occurrence) OR B2 (area of occupancy) OR both: 1. Extent of occurrence estimated to be less than 20,000 km2, and estimates indicating at least two of a-c: a. Severely fragmented or known to exist at no more than 10 locations. b. Continuing decline, observed, inferred or projected, in any of the following: (i) extent of occurrence (ii) area of occupancy (iii) area, extent and/or quality of habitat (iv) number of locations or subpopulations (v) number of mature individuals. c. Extreme fluctuations in any of the following: (i) extent of occurrence (ii) area of occupancy (iii) number of locations or subpopulations (iv) number of mature individuals. 2. Area of occupancy estimated to be less than 2000 km2, and estimate indicating at least two of a-c: a. Severely fragmented or known to exist at no more than 10 locations. b. Continuing decline, observed, inferred or projected, in any of the following: (i) extent of occurrence (ii) area of occupancy (iii) area, extent and/or quality of habitat (iv) number of locations or subpopulations (v) number of mature individuals. c. Extreme fluctuations in any of the following: (i) extent of occurrence (ii) area of occupancy (iii) number of locations or subpopulations 90 Red List Category & Criteria (iv) number of mature individuals. C. Population size estimated to number fewer than 10,000 mature individuals and either: 1. An estimated continuing decline of at least 10% within three years or one generation, whichever is longer, (up to a maximum of 100 years in the future) OR 2. A continuing decline, observed, projected, or inferred, in numbers of mature individuals AND at least one of the following (a-b): a. Population structure in the form of one of the following: (i) no subpopulation estimated to contain more than 1000 mature individuals, OR (ii) all mature individuals in one subpopulation. b. Extreme fluctuations in number of mature individuals. D. Population very small or restricted in the form of either of the following: 1. Population size estimated to number fewer than 1,000 mature individuals. 2. Population with a very restricted area of occupancy (typically less than 20 km2) or number of locations (typically five or fewer) such that it is prone to the effects of human activities or stochastic events within a very short time period in an uncertain future, and is thus capable of becoming Critically Endangered or even Extinct in a very short time period. E. Quantitative analysis showing the probability of extinction in the wild is at least 10% within 100 years. METHODOLOGY: We will assess the taxon using the information and data recorded in this study, and follow the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria (Table 9): version 3.1. and current version of the Guidelines for Using the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria for guidance on applying the IUCN criteria. We will record the available data for population sizes, trends, decline rates, ranges, etc. to compare against the IUCN Red List Criteria thresholds. Data for criterion A: rate of population reduction, Data for criterion B: restricted range, Data for criterion C: small population size and continuing decline, Data for criterion D: small population size or restricted range, and Data for criterion E: quantitative analysis were recorded according IUCN (2014). 91 Red List Category & Criteria Table 9. Summary of the five criteria (A-E) used to evaluate if a taxon belongs in a threatened category (Critically Endangered, Endangered or Vulnerable). 92 Red List Category & Criteria When assessment takes place, you are request from Species Information Service (SIS) to fill in the data required for each criterion to complete the Red List assessment: Data for Criterion A: 93 Red List Category & Criteria Data for Criterion B: Data for Criterion C: 94 Red List Category & Criteria Data for Criterion D: Data for Criterion E: RESULTS: From the data collected within this study about population, habitat and ecology, geographical range, and threats, we can extract the conservation status for P. boveana as follow: Data about the percentage of reduction in population size is not enough here to assess, so we will eliminate the Criterion A. From Tables 10 and 11, P. boveana qualifies as Critically Endangered (CR) under criterion B1ab(i,ii,iii,iv,v)c(iv)+2ab(i,ii,iii,iv,v)c(iv); C2b because it is endemic to a tiny area (with an EOO of 13 km2 and AOO of less than 6 km2) of the high mountain area of the St. Katherine Protectorate in southern Sinai, Egypt. The total population size of mature individuals is less than 200, distributed among nine subpopulations. As the main threats are drought and climate change, effectively there is only one location. There is a continuing decline in habitat quality for this species, with evidence of declines in subpopulation numbers, as w ell as strong fluctuations through time. Climate change is projected to further reduce the available habitat of this high. 95 Red List Category & Criteria Table 10. Data for criterion B: restricted range. Criteria 1. Extent Of Occurrence a. Severely fragmented or known to exist at only a single location. b. Continuing decline, observed, inferred or projected, in any of the following: (i) extent of occurrence (ii) area of occupancy (iii) area, extent and/or quality of habitat (iv) number of locations or subpopulations (v) number of mature individuals. c. Extreme fluctuations in any of the following: (i) extent of occurrence (ii) area of occupancy (iii) number of locations or subpopulations (iv) number of mature individuals. 2. Area Of Occupancy a. Severely fragmented or known to exist at only a single location. b. Continuing decline, observed, inferred or projected, in any of the following: (i) extent of occurrence (ii) area of occupancy (iii) area, extent and/or quality of habitat (iv) number of locations or subpopulations (v) number of mature individuals. c. Extreme fluctuations in any of the following: (i) extent of occurrence (ii) area of occupancy (iii) number of locations or subpopulations (iv) number of mature individuals. Status 2 12.7 km X X X 6 km 2 X X X Table 11. Data for criterion C: small population size and continuing decline. Criteria Population size (mature individuals) 1. An estimated continuing decline of at least 25% within three years or one generation, whichever is longer, (up to a maximum of 100 years in the future) OR 2. A continuing decline, observed, projected, or inferred, in numbers of mature individuals AND at least one of the following (a-b): a. Population structure in the form of one of the following: (i) no subpopulation estimated to contain more than 50 mature individuals, OR (ii) at least 90% of mature individuals in one subpopulation. b. Extreme fluctuations in number of mature individuals. Status 165 X X X X Estimated population size recorded as fewer than 250 (165) mature individuals and due to the small number of mature individuals and the population structure this species would also qualify as Endangered under Criterion D. Data about Quantitative analysis showing the percentage probability of extinction in the wild within 10 years or three generations, whichever is the longer (up to a maximum of 100 years) are not enough to assess this criterion so we eliminate the criterion E. 96 Red List Category & Criteria REFERENCES: Baillie, J. and Groombridge, B. (eds). 1996. 1996 IUCN Red List of Threatened Animals. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland. Fitter, R. and Fitter, M. (eds). 1987. The Road to Extinction. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland. IUCN. (2012). IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria: Version 3.1. Second edition. Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK: IUCN. iv + 32pp. IUCN. 1993. Draft IUCN Red List Categories. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland. IUCN. 1994. IUCN Red List Categories. Prepared by the IUCN Species Survival Commission. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland. IUCN. 1996. Resolution 1.4. Species Survival Commission. Resolutions and Recommendations, pp. 7-8. World Conservation Congress, 13-23 October 1996, Montreal, Canada. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland. IUCN. 2001. IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria: Version 3.1. IUCN Species Survival Commission. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK. IUCN. 2003. Guidelines for Application of IUCN Red List Criteria at Regional Levels: Version 3.0. IUCN Species Survival Commission. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK. IUCN. 2014. Guidelines for Using the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria. Version 11. Prepared by the Standards and Petitions Subcommittee. Downloadable from http://www.iucnredlist.org/documents/RedListGuidelines.pdf. IUCN/SSC Criteria Review Working Group. 1999. IUCN Red List Criteria review provisional report: draft of the proposed changes and recommendations. Species 31-32: 43-57. Mace, G.M. and Lande, R.1991.Assessing extinction threats: toward a reevaluation of IUCN threatened species categories. Conservation Biology 5: 148 157. Mace, G.M. and Stuart, S.N. 1994. Draft IUCN Red List Categories, Version 2.2. Species 21-22: 13-24. Mace, G.M., Collar, N., Cooke, J., Gaston, K.J., Ginsberg, J.R., LeaderWilliams, N., Maunder, M. and Milner-Gulland, E.J. 1992. The development of new criteria for listing species on the IUCN Red List. Species 19: 16 22. Oldfield, S., Lusty, C. and MacKinven, A. 1998. The World List of Threatened Trees. World Conservation Press, Cambridge. 97 Conservation actions & Requirements Chapter 6 Conservation actions & requirements INTRODUCTION: Plants are of fundamental importance to life on earth. They form the backbone of Earth’s ecosystems and provide a wide range of ecosystem goods and services. The benefits they provide include food, medicines, genetic material for crop improvement, clothing and shelter, and they have great economic and cultural value. They thus make an important contribution to human well-being. Over the last hundred years the trends observed in the loss of plant biodiversity have been a matter of great concern. Despite all the efforts made to conserve plant diversity, the situation today is still very alarming. Up to one-quarter of the estimated 400 000 species of plants are believed to be threatened worldwide (Heywood and Dulloo 2005). One of the major factors affecting biodiversity conservation today is global change—demographic, land-use and climatic yet the biodiversity movement and most conservation planners have so far largely failed to factor global change into their planning models and strategies (Hannah et al. 2002). Global change is causing a major transformation of the Earth’s environment as a result of the numbers and growth of the human population (Steffen et al. 2004) and will have effects on both ecosystems and species and their populations and genes, and consequently on efforts to conserve these. Degradation, fragmentation, simplification and loss of terrestrial and aquatic habitats, caused by urbanization, industrialization and expanding agriculture will place many species at risk and even lead to the possible collapse of major systems such as the Amazon forest (Schellnhuber 2002) or of ‘ecosystems’ such as mangrove swamps. A focus on species conservation is readily comprehensible, since most people find it easy to empathize with biodiversity inherent in species, especially if they are charismatic or flagship species. Moreover, such a focus may well serve the interests both of conservation and of those who exploit species (Hutton and Leader- Williams 2003). The question that has to be addressed is whether a species-based approach to in situ conservation is feasible or even desirable. It is often stated that such an approach to conservation is not possible because of the sheer numbers of entities involved and the continuing rise in the numbers of threatened species (Ricklefs et al. 1984), whereas a habitat/ecosystem-based approach allows a large number of species to be given some form of protection at the same time. There is, moreover, an increasing tendency today to shift the focus away from species and to view biodiversity conservation and sustainable use through the lens of the ecosystem, with an emphasis on maintaining the healthy functioning of the system. 98 Conservation actions & Requirements For species that are threatened or endangered, the removal or containment of the factors causing the threat means that some form of intervention is necessary so that a ‘hands-off’ approach is not appropriate. If the species is threatened as a consequence of habitat loss, as is increasingly common, then it is clearly essential to ensure that the remaining habitat is secured and, additionally, population reinforcement and other measures may be required. It is clear, however, that for many wild species the best that we can hope for is not some targeted form of action but simply to ensure their presence in some form of protected area where, provided the area itself is not under threat, and subject to the dynamics of the system and the extent of human pressures, some degree of protection may be afforded (Heywood and Dulloo 2005). The number of wild plant species requiring specific conservation efforts is far too numerous to include all of them in conservation programmes (Sutherland 2001). Even within the main groups of target species of economic importance, the number of species to consider is greatly in excess of any reasonable expectation of conservation possibilities. If a conservation strategy depends, as it often will, on the results of ecogeographical surveys and analyses of genetic and biological variation, all of which require considerable investments of time, money and expertise, not to mention any management interventions and monitoring, then effective action will not be possible for most of the species identified. A critically endangered (CR) species is one which has been categorised by the International Union for Conservation of Nature as facing a very high risk of extinction in the wild. It is the highest risk category assigned by the IUCN Red List for wild species. There are currently 2129 animals and 1821 plants with this assessment, compared with 1998 levels of 854 and 909, respectively (IUCN, 2012). As the Red List does not consider a species extinct until extensive, targeted surveys have been conducted, species which are possibly extinct are still listed as "critically endangered". A new ideal category for "possibly extinct" has been suggested by BirdLife International to categorize these taxa. Once a decision has been made on which species to target for in situ conservation and basic information on the geographical distribution of the target species and the target areas in which they occur has been obtained, a decision has to be made on which areas should be chosen for detailed survey and sampling. This in turn will allow a decision to be made on how many populations and which populations are to be conserved, their size and proportions, how much genetic and other diversity they should contain, as well as their geographical distribution (Hodgkin 1997). The choice of precise sites for conservation of target species is an essential component of a conservation strategy and involves setting goals, targets and scales (Balmford 2002). Apart from technical considerations, priority may well be given to sites that are protected areas or centres of plant diversity or are centres of crop origins or 99 Conservation actions & Requirements diversification. In practical terms, the size of the sites in which the target species occur in is also an important consideration, as this may well determine viable population size. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), which came into force in December 1993, has been the major global instrument to rally world-wide efforts for the effective conservation of biological diversity. It calls for mechanisms to be put in place for both in situ and ex situ conservation (see Articles 8 and 9). A Global Strategy for Plant Conservation (GSPC) has subsequently been developed and was adopted at the Sixth Meeting of the Conference of Parties to the CBD held in The Hague in April 2002 (Decision VI/9). This strategy provides an innovative framework of 16 outcome-oriented targets aimed at achieving a series of measurable targets by 2010, of which targets 7, 8 and 9 relate to in situ and ex situ conservation of target species. Target 7 of the GSPC calls for “60% of the world’s threatened species to be conserved in situ”. This is taken to mean that populations of the species are effectively conserved in protected areas or through other in situ management measures. To be able to achieve this target of the GSPC, a major effort will be required to augment existing tools and methodologies for the effective conservation of plant biodiversity (Heywood and Dulloo 2005). The different approaches to in situ conservation that have been developed to date have been widely applied to a range of situations, but seldom to target species of wild plants. For many plant species of value to agriculture, including crop wild relatives, efforts to conserve threatened germplasm have led to a massive ex situ collection of over 6 million accessions conserved in over 1500 genebanks world-wide. In situ conservation efforts world-wide have mostly focused on establishing protected areas and taken an ecosystem-oriented rather than a species-oriented approach. Protected areas are seldom established for individual species, unless they are highly charismatic (Heywood and Dulloo 2005). Existing protected areas are often poorly managed and some have no management at all, as was revealed at the Fifth World Park Congress held in Durban, South Africa, in 2003. Effectiveness of protected area management depends on adequate human and financial resources, which in many places are not available. In addition to making up for existing inadequacies, protected area managers will have to face new threats such as invasive species, habitat degradation and destruction, as climate change and other global changes become apparent. In the past, priority has been given to the conservation of crop landraces ’on-farm’, which the CBD defines as a form of in situ conservation in the place where the domesticated or cultivated species have developed their distinctive properties. There is an urgent need to also pay attention to the many economically important wild species that are neither onfarm nor in protected areas (Heywood and Dulloo 2005). The populations of many of these wild species are under heavy pressure due to over-exploitation, 100 Conservation actions & Requirements habitat degradation and invasive species. Their effective in situ conservation will be difficult to accomplish and therefore presents a huge challenge to conservationists. The main problem in achieving [in situ] conservation goals is, at present, the lack of institutional and political frameworks under which adequate land use and operational management choices, fair to all stakeholders, can be considered and efficiently implemented in the short as well as in the long term (FAO 2002a). Recovery programmes for nationally or subnationally threatened, rare or endangered wild species (whether of ec onomic importance or not). Species recovery programmes are a special case of in situ conservation of target species. They may often require recovery of their habitats. Restoration, recovery or rehabilitation of habitats with t h e widespread ecological destruction now occurring around the world, habitat restoration has attracted growing attention and often environmental legislation requires habitat rehabilitation or restoration of areas affected by activities such as mining to be undertaken to mitigate the damage caused. Likewise, species recovery programmes may require not only management and reinforcement of populations but also rehabilitation or restoration of the habitats in which the often fragmented populations occur (Heywood and Dulloo 2005). In situ conservation therefore covers not only species and ecosystems but also genetic variability. Unless we recognize the diversity of approaches involved in in situ conservation, we risk overlooking or obscuring some of the key issues involved. In practice, however, conservation of wild species or populations in situ is widely interpreted as meaning their presence within a protected area or habitat, i.e. with the focus primarily on the ecosystem. However, this may also involve the preparation and implementation of rescue, recovery or management plans for target species that are seriously endangered at the local, national or global level, to prevent their becoming extinct in the wild (Heywood and Dulloo 2005). The main general aim and long-term goal of in situ conservation of target species is to protect, manage and monitor the selected populations in their natural habitats so that the natural evolutionary processes can be maintained, thus allowing new variation to be generated in the gene pool that will allow the species to adapt to gradual changes in environmental conditions such as global warming, changed rainfall patterns, or acid rain. On the other hand, many of the species that may be targeted for in situ conservation because of their economic use are subject to exploitation. It should not be assumed that the conservation objective is simply to maintain the species in such a way that they will continue to evolve as natural viable populations; it may be that the emphasis will be more on sustaining the use itself for the benefit of the various stakeholders (Freese, 1997) and this will affect the management objectives. It must be emphasized that in situ conservation of target species is only one aspect of a broader strategy that may be required for the successful 101 Conservation actions & Requirements maintenance of a given species and its genetic variability. It is increasingly recognized that biodiversity conservation, whether of genes, species or ecosystems, should be viewed in the context of a mosaic of land-use options (Wilcox 1990, 1995), each of which will require its own range of management approaches. Thus the conservation of target species may be undertaken in nature reserves and other protected areas; in private and publicly owned natural forests and plantations and other types of habitat; as trees, shrubs and herbs in agroforestry systems of various types, including home gardens; in homesteads; and along rivers and roads. Various forms of ex situ conservation may also be needed to supplement the in situ action, such as conservation collections in arboreta and botanic gardens, properly sampled accessions in seed banks, clone banks, field trials and seed production areas (Palmberg- Lerche 2002). In situ conservation thus covers a wide range of different activities and goals. The clear distinction between in situ and ex situ conservation traditionally recognized by conservationists (exemplified by protected areas and botanic gardens, respectively) breaks down when applied to crop and forest genetic resources where a range of situations occurs, reflecting the complete spectrum between wild and completely domesticated species (Heywood 1999a). It has been suggested (Bretting and Duvick 1997) that it would be better to distinguish between the different approaches according to their specific objectives. Thus it has been proposed that the term ‘static conservation’ could be used to substitute for ex situ conservation and ‘dynamic conservation’ for in situ conservation. Another dimension that can be used is the extent of deliberate intervention needed to achieve a specific conservation objective (Lleras 1991). The ways in which ecosystems respond to climate change will be complex and varied and will depend on the location and extent of changes in temperature and other climatic parameters. It is now widely accepted that global climate change poses a critical threat to ecosystems, species and biodiversity in general (IPCC 2002). Current patterns of habitat loss, fragmentation and loss of species diversity will be exacerbated by climate change and, as far as species are concerned, the rates of global warming will exceed the migration capacity of many of those affected. Global warming is expected to increase extinction rates significantly. The interplay between ecosystems and the species they contain under these changing circumstances will lead to novel situations and assemblages that will challenge ecologists and conservationists. Responses at the genetic and physiological levels within species, populations and individuals require detailed case studies and long-term monitoring. Increased fragmentation of populations within ecosystem fragments will lead to significant losses of genetic diversity within species and will add to the pressure for in situ genetic conservation of target species while they still retain their diversity. With the disruption of habitats, an increase in invasive and 102 Conservation actions & Requirements weedy species and others with high dispersal abilities is likely and this will impact on native species and natural ecosystems. Not only is it likely that global change will lead to an increased need for in situ species conservation but it will also have an effect on the way this is undertaken. It will, for example, have major impacts on conservation strategies and facilities such as protected areas, botanic gardens, field genebanks, clonal collections, and seed forests, and even the survival of some of these will be placed in jeopardy in some regions. If protected areas are put at risk, then any species conservation actions being undertaken in them may be adversely affected (Heywood and Dulloo 2005). In situ conservation within protected habitats must remain the primary means by which our wild plant species are conserved. However, ex situ preservation in botanical gardens, seed banks, home or farm gardens, and commercial operations plays an essential role in conserving our native botanical diversity. Ex situ conservation helps to provide the flexibility to respond to unforeseen environmental changes and consequent impacts on habitat conservation and utilization of wild plant species. Ex situ collections are sources of plant material for recovery of threatened or endangered species, habitat rehabilitation and restoration, crop improvement, new product development, and a wide variety of research studies. Researchers can obtain access to rare and endangered species without disturbing or damaging natural populations. Ex situ conservation of plant species in seed banks is advantageous in terms of efficiency and economy of long-term storage (PGRC, 2005). The in situ conservation of habitats and entire ecosystems is often considered the best method to conserve species. Consequently ex situ conservation measures are not as well developed as those undertaken for in situ conservation. Though there are potential problems with ex situ conservation in maintaining genetic variation, or achieving success with reintroductions of species into natural habitats, such measures can usefully assist in the temporary restoration of ecosystem services, wildlife corridors and general amenity. The mining industry in some parts of the world notably in Australia, has developed sophisticated methods for reconstruction of plant communities on stripmined areas (Roche et al. 1997). Ex situ conservation is usually used in reference to plant conservation at the taxon level. An extensive literature is developing on ex situ conservation methods and techniques. Integrated conservation was proposed by Richardson (1992) as a term that covered both ex situ and in situ conservation on the basis that both were part of a spectrum of techniques rather than mutually exclusive methods. Ex situ conservation methods samples genetic diversity of species using certain criteria and store/propagate the collected material outside the natural environments in which the species grows (Heywood and Iriondo 2003). Importance of ex situ collections for conservation in situ was realized when 103 Conservation actions & Requirements collections in botanical gardens and arboreta helped implementation of population management and recreation (Millar and Libby 1991). At the same time, limitations of their usefulness became evident. The latter include poor genetic or demographic management almost inevitably resulting in genetic erosion, artificial selection and spontaneous hybridization. To prevent/reduce negative effects of genetic drift, inbreeding depression and mutational meltdown, that all happen as a result of small (effective) population size of a collection, sampled individuals must be maintained separately or through controlled breeding and pedigree design. This introduces other limitations of ex situ collections, such as space limitations and high cost of maintenance. The design of protected area systems will require serious rethinking and more flexibility in size and scale so as to provide a connected network of patches of different habitat types at various scales to allow species to migrate and adjust their ranges in response to the various kinds of change. The planning of in situ species conservation under such circumstances may well be difficult, if not impossible, in practice. The effects of global change on agricultural biodiversity and on agricultural patterns will be significant, but in some regions it will be possible to mitigate the adverse effects by adaptation much more effectively than in the case of natural ecosystems (Heywood and Dulloo 2005). The potential number of candidate species for in situ conservation is vastly in excess of the resources or finances available for this purpose. The strategy of protecting enough habitat so as to ensure the presence of viable populations of all the native species of a region, as has been suggested, is a laudable aim but seldom possible, and is fraught with difficulties. For most wild species the best that we can hope for is their presence in some form of protected area where, provided the area itself is not under threat and subject to the dynamics of the system and the extent of human pressures, some degree of protection may be afforded. This approach has been widely advocated and is known as the ‘hands-off’ or ‘benign neglect’ approach. In the words of Holden et al. (1993), “…for species which are not under threat of destruction, the most sensible and effective policy is to leave the material to conserve itself, in the wild…” It is also known as ‘passive’ conservation (Maxted et al. 1997a) in that the presence of particular species in the protected area is coincidental and passive, and not the result of active conservation. This approach can be contrasted with ‘active’ conservation in which positive action promotes the sustainability of the target taxa and the maintenance of the natural, semi-natural or artificial (e.g. agricultural) ecosystems which contain these taxa. This latter approach implies the need for associated habitat monitoring. If examined in detail, such a hands-off strategy is somewhat problematic and may frequently lead to the loss of those very species or assemblages whose conservation one wishes to ensure. The most obvious problem is that, even if not ostensibly under threat, many—if not most—protected areas are 104 Conservation actions & Requirements not effectively managed: as noted below, protected areas are very diverse as is their degree of management. A report commissioned by the World Bank/World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Alliance and carried out by IUCN revealed that less than one quarter of declared national parks, wildlife refuges, and other protected areas in ten key forested countries were well managed, and many had no management at all. This means that only 1% of these areas is secure from serious threats such as human settlement, agriculture, logging, hunting, mining, pollution, war, and tourism, among other pressures. A further report entitled How Effective are Protected Areas? undertaken by WWF provides a preliminary analysis of the management effectiveness of nearly 200 forest protected areas in 34 countries using a tracking tool developed by the World Bank and the IUCN World Commission on Protected Areas (WWF 2004). Without effective management, the populations of target species in existing protected areas are at risk of change in size and genetic composition because of the dynamics involved. Moreover, protected areas in some regions will be put at risk as a result of global change (Malcolm and Markham 2000; IUCN 2003) and as global change intensifies, more areas and many of the species they house will be placed at risk. The mere presence of target species in a protected area is therefore no guarantee of its conservation. Frequently some form of intervention or management of the populations of the target species is needed to ensure its successful maintenance and continued evolutionary development. Of course, many species that will be selected as targets do not occur in areas that are currently protected and the chances of setting up areas for them, even without proper species-orientated management, are very limited. METHODOLOGY: In this part, we will collect any information about past, ongoing, and future activities to protect P. boveana in-place or outside-place. Conservation actions that will take place on land or that needed in the near future will also recorded. Researches needed according to IUCN Scheme were recommending (IUCN 2014). RESULTS: The entire world distribution of Primula boveana is inside the St. Katherine Protectorate. Six from the nine subpopulations are already protected by fenced enclosures, and regular monitoring by SKP rangers takes place every two years to detect the effect of this protection on population trends. On average 48 checks are made every year to keep a watch on the current situation for the plant and its habitat, and to record any detrimental activities. Undertaken by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), 105 Conservation actions & Requirements the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and the Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (EEAA), the Medicinal Plants Conservation Project (MPCP) tried to conserve some important species, P. boveana among them, using cultivation inside greenhouses as well as storing its seeds for future use. The Medicinal Plants Conservation Project was launched in January 2003 and ended in 2013. It is a national project that aims at examining and eliminating the root causes to the loss in biodiversity and addressing the threats to the conservation and sustainable use of medicinal plants in Egypt through a number of interventions, while at the same time empowering the Bedouin community to use and manage its resources in a sustainable manner. It aims at conserving the medicinal plant species within the ecosystem (in situ) through the development of sustainable management practices, including the protection of hotspots and individual plants or populations wherever it is not possible to utilise the resources sustainably. Ex situ conservation measures will be applied when the threat to a species is considered severe and warrant such measures (MPCPEgypt, 2010). However all this activities the project didn’t the point of conserving Primula boveana by in situ technique because of some technical problems. Studies were initiated of its ecological, morphological and reproductive ecology, and the threats to its existence (Omar, 2013b) (Table 12). Much more is needed, however. Table 12. Primula boveana Conservation Actions In- Place. Action In Place Status Action Recovery Plan. Yes Systematic monitoring scheme. Yes Conservation sites identified. Yes Occur in at least one PA. Yes Percentage of population protected by PAs (0-100). 100 Area based regional management plan. Yes Invasive species control or prevention. Not Applicable Harvest management plan. No Successfully reintroduced or introduced benignly. No Subject to ex-situ conservation. Yes Subject to recent education and awareness programmes. No Included in international legislation. No Subject to any international management /trade controls. No Saint Katherine Protectorate (SKP) has a strong management plan worked with it from 2003 to date (See Executive Summary). EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (SKP Management Plan 2003): This management plan is designed to ensure the conservation and sustainable development of the natural and cultural resources of the Saint Katherine Protectorate and bring local and national benefits to the people of 106 Conservation actions & Requirements Egypt. The plan aims to protect critical habitats and historical sites including the area nominated for World Heritage status, for which a management plan is an international obligation. It is also to assist community programmes and to establish appropriate management infrastructure. The plan sets out the basic purpose and management philosophy for the St Katherine Protectorate. It is intended to provide a frame of reference for decision making to guide the development and management of the protected area over the next five years. It lays out the goals and objectives for the protectorate and general courses of action to achieve them. However, it is not a detailed or rigid operational plan; it allows for an adaptive approach to its implementation, which should be achieved through the development of annual operational plans. The management plan has been prepared in response to prevailing conditions and with regard to available resources and staff capacity; it should be reviewed periodically and revised as required in response to changing internal or external conditions and as the management process and capacity evolves. Ideally all physical development and resource management programmes are located and implemented after the integrated area management plan has been developed and on the basis of zone prescriptions, formulated policies and regulations. However, a more pragmatic approach had to be adopted, as some management interventions were required prior to the development of this plan. A generic five-year work plan and budget were developed to initiate the p r o g r a m m e ( Hobbs, 1 9 9 6 ). This i n t e g r a t e d p l a n s h o u l d p r o j e c t t h e management process over the next five years. The Ministry of Planning aims at achieving radical development changes for the whole of the Sinai Peninsula that will completely transform its socioeconomic and physical morphology. If population targets are to be maintained and without the discovery and exploitation of new water resources of substantial quantities, water demands will be insupportable so the growth of St Katherine in the urban and tourism sectors will have to be severely constrained. The target increase in population levels is unsustainable for various social and environmental reasons: The non-Bedouin population would increase to 75% of the population overwhelming the indigenous population and so would fundamentally alter the area’s unique cultural character. At a minimum, an additional 1,000 jobs would need to be generated. The demand on groundwater supplies is already excessive and the requirements of the target population would be double the available sources. The physical characteristics of St Katherine and its importance as a cultural/historical landscape impose severe limits on the availability of suitable land for housing development, which will be insufficient for 107 Conservation actions & Requirements planned needs. Primary Management Goals The conservation of the contained mountain ecosystem of Southern Sinai including all its elements and processes and the conservation of the site’s traditional cultural and religious values: 1. To facilitate and strengthen the institutional capacity for Protectorate management and development in partnership with relevant institutions and local stakeholders. 2. The integration of the St Katherine Protectorate management and development planning into the network of protected areas forming the South Sinai Management Sector. 3. The integration of the protectorate into the local development process and land use management system in order to assist sustainable local rural development. Zonation The zoning system proposed for St Katherine Protectorate is a resourcebased approach by means of which the area is zoned/classified according to its need for protection, level or intensity of management and capacity to sustain traditional, public or commercial use. The system provides guidelines for management actions and helps resolve conflicts, which frequently arise when attempts are made to conserve and utilise the same resource base. The internal management zones for St Katherine Protectorate are: 1. Wildlife Sanctuary Zones. 2. Premium Wilderness Zones. 3. Protected Tourism Zones. 4. Archaeological Protection Zones 5. Traditional Use Zones 6. Multiple and Intensive Use Management Zones An external zone category will be applied to accommodate the Protectorate’s adjacent area: 7. Buffer Zone. In addition, the recently declared World Heritage Site in the core area of the Protectorate will have special management prescriptions. Staff selection and recruitment The PAMU administration will recruit sufficient suitable staff for the management of the St Katherine Protectorate. Present staffing levels represent a staffing ratio of 16 staff per 1,000km2, which is below the global mean of 27 staff per 1,000km² for protected areas and well below the average for Africa of 70 per 1000km². The PAMU must have sufficient staff to fulfil all planned activities; this will 108 Conservation actions & Requirements require a minimum target staff level of 85 i.e. 20-staff/1,000km² which is 75% of the global mean. Staff career development and training Seven career ranks are proposed for Protected Area staff within the NCS/EEAA: 1. Community Guards. 2. Technician/Junior Ranger. 3. Ranger. 4. Senior Ranger. 5. Area Manager. 6. Sector Manager. 7. Regional Manager. It is vital that a realistic career system with different entry points, qualification and promotion ceilings for the various grades is introduced. A proposed schedule for staff promotion, qualifications and entry points is given. All staff from new recruits to experienced Rangers should benefit from ongoing training programmes to enhance their job performance and improve career opportunities and promotion. A proposed integrated PAMU training programme for all staff from new recruits to senior rangers is outlined. Implementation of the Management Plan Management issues and task priorities Part III summarises the major management priorities to be addressed during the period of this Management Plan, i.e. over the next five years. These issues invariably entail a number of usually interrelated tasks that must be elaborated in detail in the Annual Operating Plan see below. The highest priority must be given to: 1. A critical review of all development proposals in the St Katherine Protectorate, particularly those scheduled within the World Heritage Site, and the implementation of a strategy to ensure that all development is appropriate and in accordance with World Heritage Convention conditions, particularly those that control development. 2. Ensuring the early introduction of the variable entrance fee and revenue retention system to guarantee the sustainable funding of the Protectorate. 3. The development of a Master Plan for Visitor Management within the World Heritage Site, with particular importance given to specific tourism sites such as Mount Sinai. 4. The construction of the PAMU office and accommodation complex. 5. The introduction of the Protectorate zoning plans and associated programmes after close consultation with local stakeholders. 109 Conservation actions & Requirements 6. Implementing the Public Awareness strategy with particular emphasis on ensuring the new Visitor Centre is fully operational and is properly promoted as a visitor destination. Annual operating plan Unless their actions are guided by an officially approved overall operating plan it can happen that PA Managers may take short-term decisions that are actually at variance with the long-term management objectives of the area set out in the Management Plan. The annual operating plan (AOP) will be drawn up in accordance with the policies and objectives set out in the management plan and will be prepared to justify the Protectorate’s annual budget request. Reviewing and monitoring management planning for the Protectorate This integrated resource management plan for St Katherine Protectorate is designed to provide general guidelines and specific prescriptions for the myriad conservation management issues within the context of the Protectorate’s overall objectives. The i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t he p l a n w i l l b e considered effective when it can be verifiably shown to have contributed to: 1. The implementation of a participatory management system that benefits all partners: Verifiable when all stakeholders can be shown to be either formally involved through protocols or informal agreements. 2. The conservation of natural areas and their contained biodiversity: Verifiable through results of monitoring programmes. 3. The management and sustainable use of the Protectorate’s natural resources: Verified with the endorsement and implementation of the management plan by stakeholders. 4. The maintenance of the area’s economic potential and the mitigation of negative impacts resulting from development activities and the rationalisation of all conflicting uses within and around the Protectorate: Verified by the implementation of the sustainable urban plan, moratorium on development and reduction in quarrying. 5. The establishment of the Protectorate as a valued element in the economic development of Southern Sinai especially in relation to local communities: Verified by the introduction of entrance fees and other Protectorate revenue generators and the re-investment of a significant portion of this income. 6. The conservation of the cultural heritage and the protection of traditional rights: Verified from reports on historical site protection and UNESCO national committee reports to World Heritage committee. 7. An improvement in the living conditions of local people: Verifiable from monitoring data indicating improvements to health (e.g. child nutritional status) and income generation (e.g. Fansina craft company and ecolodge revenues). 110 Conservation actions & Requirements Primula boveana inserted as one of the most plants of conservation interest and recovery plans in SKP Management Plan (2003). Recovery plans for P. boveana started in 2003. The overall objective of the recovery plans was: 1. Prepare and implement a long-term (five years) conservation plan for the species. 2. Ensure a viable population of the species by the end of the implementation plan. 3. Introduce measures for the sustainable utilisation of the species. This done by: 1. Mapping locations for occurrence of the species in the Protectorate. 2. Studying the natural regeneration of the species. 3. Quantifying threats and look for ways to combat them. 4. Designing a recovery plan involving all stakeholders. 5. Developing protocols for ex situ conservation of the species. Public Awareness is one of the main tools for conservation inside SKP, according to SKP Management Plan (2003): Guiding principles: Public awareness in protected areas aims to elicit the support and goodwill of stakeholders as a means of meeting management and conservation goals. Public support flows from relationships based on trust, respect and a sense of ownership of the protected area, public awareness is, therefore, about participation, effective two-way communication and education between the stakeholders and the agency. Policy: To raise local, national and international awareness in order to elicit support for St Katherine Protectorate. The target audiences are Bedouin communities, tour operators, tourists, local and regional authorities, hotels, investors and the St Katherine Community at large, particularly schoolchildren. Strategy: Administratively the St Katherine Protectorate Management Unit (PAMU) must: 1. Maintain, expand and continuously update the established public awareness programmes (newsletter, web page, brochures etc.). 2. Respond promptly to e-mail messages. 3. Fully utilise the new visitor reception and interpretation centre for the St Katherine Protectorate to expand visitors’ perceptions of the Protectorate and raise environmental awareness. In recent years and because the sharp decrease in staff number we find problem to achieve this goal effectively, In spite of there is educational awareness to school students about some critical issues theirs an urgent needs for duplicate this effort and focus on our target species especially within universities and Scientific Research Centres the main sites that collecting this species for scientific testing. 111 Conservation actions & Requirements Conservation Actions For future: The hierarchical structure for the Conservation Actions Needed as show on Table 13. Assessors are asked to use this Classification Scheme to indicate the conservation actions or measures that are needed for the plant or animal concerned. In suggesting what actions are needed, assessors are asked to be realistic and not simply select everything. The selection should be for those actions that are most urgent, significant and important; and that they could realistically be achieved within the next five years. The actions needed should also be informed by the conservation actions already in place (Table 13). As we mention before P. boveana is located inside protected area and its protected by protectorate laws and regulations. Because of the weak financial support, low staff numbers, large protected area, and weak of environmental awareness week law enforcement by time is a result and to solve this its urgent needs for new qualified staff, maintenance the deteriorated habitat (Kahf Elghola) and preventing any collecting from the species even for Scientific Research by using hands off strategy for some years at least 2 years and keep monitoring the response, managing water use around species hot areas throw making Hilf with the target stakeholders (Local community) (Table 13). The species is not commercially or traditionally used in Sinai, but it has been collected for pharmacological testing by various scientific research centers. Moreover, because of very small population size the limiting population growth is unacceptable. Species recovery is highly recommended through rehabilitation, restoration, reintroduction, and benign introduction in areas that have similar environmental conditions. Its found that P. boveana is restricted to cliffs supported by melt water all the time, suitable habitat for optimum growth, including climatic, edaphic, topographic, and preferable microhabitat should be followed when in-situ conservation by rehabilitation or restoration takes place as listed in this study. It found that places like Elmesirdi, Shaq Itlah, Abu Tweita, Abu Hamman, Wadi Eltebq, and Wadi Eltalaa are the best places for this process. There is an urgent need to conserve the species outside its habitat (Ex situ) though seed collection, artificial propagation from seeds, botanical garden, seed storage, tissue culture, Cultivation, seed bank, freezing cuts from the plant, or stocking the seeds, Tissue bank, Cryobank, Pollen bank, and Field gene bank by planting plants for the conservation of genes. For this purpose we construct ecosystem artificially. Through this method one can compare the difference among plants of different species and can study it in detail. It needs more land, adequate soil, weather, etc. (Table 13). It was revealed from Omar and Elgamal (2004) that propagation from seed is a viable method for the ex-situ conservation of P. boveana, although this species has stringent requirements for germination (i.e. growth promoters 112 Conservation actions & Requirements that may only be provided by specialist research or propagation facilities). However, seed storage and germination are only the first steps in the reinforcement of populations of these species: studies to attain baseline data on ex-situ plant development and establishment in the field following transplantation are now required. Seeds of this species are scarce, and should extensive population reinforcement be necessary, a subsequent phase of multiplication using rosette division or meristem culture could be performed. There are urgent needs to work fast in two directions to keep this species save; 1) Ex-situ conservation through a seed bank, genome resource bank, and artificial propagation, 2) In-situ conservation through rehabilitation and restoration, and fenced enclosures. It’s important to carry out a wide range of educational and awareness activities in universities, and scientific research centers about the sensitivity of this important threatened species. According to SKP Management Plan (2003) Protectorate legislation can be summarize as follow: PROTECTORATE LEGISLATION: 1. Law 102/1983 The main Protectorate legislative instrument, Law 102 sets out the principles for the declaration of natural protectorates and stipulates development restrictions and activities within and adjacent to the protectorate. The Law obliges the EEAA, as the concerned administrative body, to: Forbid actions leading to the destruction or deterioration of the natural environment and biota or which would detract from the aesthetic standards of the protectorate. Regulate scientific research. Develop management programmes for declared Protected Areas. Increase Public Awareness. Regulate r e c r e a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s i n p r o t e c t o r a t e s t o p r o t e c t n a t u r a l resources. Establish control systems to enforce regulatory measures. Article 3 of Law 102 states, ‘It is forbidden to undertake activities or experiments in the areas surrounding designated protectorates, which will have an effect on the protectorate’s environment and nature, except with the permission of the concerned administrative body.’ In addition, the Law established the Natural Protectorates Fund specifically to finance the management of protected areas; this fund includes all revenue from donations, grants, sales, entrance fees, fines and subsidies. According to Article 6 the Fund can be used for: 1. Supplementing the budget of the EEAA. 2. Enhancement of protectorates. 113 Conservation actions & Requirements 3. Undertaking surveys and field research. 4. Rewarding p e r s o n s w h o p r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n o n o f f e n c e s o r w h o apprehend offenders. 2. Ministerial Decree 1067/1983 Designates the Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency as the authorised body to apply Law 102. 3. Prime Ministerial Decree 264/1994. Sets out conditions, rules and procedures for definition and regulation of activities in natural reserve areas and provides the Nature Protectorates Department of EEAA with executive administrative authority over natural protectorates. It has six articles and various conditions and rules and expressly forbids construction or development of any type without the permission of the EEAA. 4. Law 4/1994 Establishes principles and procedures to address all environmental issues in the ARE. This comprehensive law includes measures to address terrestrial, air and water pollution. Law 4 notes that the EEAA has the power to administer and supervise the natural protectorates. 5. Prime Ministerial Decree 613/1986. The decree declares St Katherine a Protected Area; the Decree is based on Law 102 from which all relevant regulatory articles are derived and contains a map defining the Protectorate’s boundaries. 6. Law 2/1973 Authorises the Ministry of Tourism as the administrative body for the supervision and exploitation of tourism areas. 7. Law 117/1983 Provides for the protection of antiquities and historical sites. 8. Ministerial Decree 66/1983 Bans the hunting of bustards and all birds of prey. 9. Presidential Decree 374/1991. Establishes the General Authority for Tourism Development (TDA) to be responsible for allocation and sale of land in designated tourism areas. The local Governorate approves development within recognised boundaries of urban areas. 10. Ministerial Decree 1611/1989 (Ministry of Justice) Granted “police powers” to the manager of the EEAA Governorate branch in which there is a protected area and to the manager of the protected area. 11. Ministerial Decree 1353/1996 Vests certain employees of the EEAA, including Managers of Natural Protectorates with the capacity of “Judiciary Seizure Officers” relative to infringements of the Environmental Code enacted by Law 4/1994 and its Bylaws, relative to their competence. 114 Conservation actions & Requirements B. Wildlife regulations 1. Law 53/1966 (Ministry of Agriculture) Defines wild fauna protection regulations. 2. Decrees (Ministry of Agriculture) 28/1967, 5/1983, 1227/1998 and 90/1990. Lists the protected species in Egypt (12 mammals, 13 reptiles and more than 100 birds). 3. Governorate decree 16/1980 (South Sinai Governorate) Enforces the law forbidding hunting of all animals in the area between Ras Mohammed and Gebel Katherina. Punishment for offenders includes imprisonment for between six months and two years. 4. Law 4/1994 Prohibits the hunting, possession, transport and sale of those species of wild fauna (alive or dead) determined by Executive Statutes of the same law. 5. Presidential Decrees: Yearly directives (first issued in 1988) for banning of hunting activities in Egypt to allow populations to recover. International Obligations Egypt has ratified or signed a number of conservation related international conventions including the Bonn Convention, Ramsar Convention, CITES, Biodiversity Convention and the African Convention on Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources. Of particular relevance to the management of the St Katherine Protectorate is the Convention concerning the Protection of the World Cultural and Natural Heritage, which are signed in 1983. Four cultural sites in Egypt are already listed. To qualify for listing the site must satisfy “conditions of integrity” that include national legal protection and adequate management. In other words, a management plan for a natural area is an essential requirement for listing as a World Heritage Site. Although of all these laws and regulations, the species is still in extreme danger and one of the most important threats that may lead to extinction is collecting. Theirs urgent needs to held specific Critically Endangered species conservation convention, Influencing legislations appropriations, harsher punishment for endangered plant species assembly without clear permission from the main authorities (Table 13). Table 13. Important Conservation Actions Needed for P. boveana conservation. Action Needed 1 Land/water protection 1.1 Site/area protection 1.2 Resource & habitat protection 2 Land/water management 2.1 Site/area management Status Done Need active enforcement 2.2 Invasive/problematic species control 2.3 Habitat & natural process restoration 115 Maintenance of habitat, maintenance of enclosures, area hands off, training staff Not applicable Habitat restoration, water rights, to reduce of stop species collecting. Conservation actions & Requirements 3 Species management 3.1 Species management 3.1.1 Harvest management 3.1.2 Trade management 3.1.3 Limiting population growth 3.2 Species recovery 3.3 Species re-introduction 3.3.1 Reintroduction 3.3.2 Benign introduction 3.4 Ex-situ conservation 3.4.1 Captive breeding/artificial propagation Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable Highly needed Highly needed Highly needed Highly needed Seed collection, artificial propagation from seeds, botanical garden, seed storage, tissue culture, Cultivation Seed bank, freezing cuts from the plant, or stocking the seeds, Tissue bank, Cryobank, Pollen bank, Field gene bank 3.4.2 Genome resource bank 4 Education & awareness 4.1 Formal education Universities, Scientific Research Centers, School student Enhance knowledge about conservation importance to species for staff and stakeholders. Media, web blogs, journal articles 4.2 Training 4.3 Awareness & communications 5 Law & policy 5.1 Legislation 5.1.1 International level Critically endangered sepsis conservation convention Influencing legislations appropriations Harsher punishment for endangered plant species assembly without clear permission from the main authorities 5.1.2 National level 5.1.3 Sub-national level It’s recommended to start work on the items presented in Table 14. Although of achieving the purpose of this study by inserting P. boveana in its level as Critically Endangered species according to the available data about population, habitat, geographical range and threats there are more topics to be discover and work on it in the near future like population reduction, functions, generation length, probability to be extinct, and percentage of decline in the future should be traced and presented clearly for future monitoring. Table 14. Research needed for P. boveana conservation. IUCN Code Research 1 .2 . 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Requirements for the establishment of a global network of in situ conservation areas for plants and animals. FAO, Rome, Italy (unpublished). Wilcox, B.A. 1995. Tropical forest resources and biodiversity: the risks of forest loss and degradation. Unasylva 46(181) [online] WWF. 2004. How Effective are Protected Areas? Preliminary analysis of forest protected areas by WWF—the largest ever global assessment of protected area management effectiveness. Report prepared for the Seventh Conference of the Parties of the Convention on Biological Diversity, February 2004. WWF, Gland, Switzerland. 119 General Discussion GENERAL DISCUSSION Being a part of mountain ecosystem mean that you are in extreme challenge and variable conditions. The Saint Katherine Protectorate (SKP) is one of Egypt’s largest protected areas and includes the country’s highest mountains. This arid, mountainous ecosystem supports a surprising biodiversity and a high proportion of plant endemics and rare. Mountain lands provide a scattered but diverse array of habitats in which a large range of plants and animals can be found. At higher altitudes harsh environmental conditions generally prevail, and a treeless alpine vegetation, upon which the present account is focused, is supported. Lower slopes commonly are covered by montane forests. At even lower levels mountain lands grade into other types of landform and vegetation desert (Jeremy, 2014) Mountain ranges are separated from other mountains by "seas” of desert, across which plant and animal migration is difficult due to the dramatic differences in environment between the high elevations and the basins below. Each mountain range behaves much like an island, where species are trapped. They adapt and change within the very specific parameters of that one location. Populations of mountain species are commonly both small— although fluctuating—and isolated and often have evolved over a relatively short period of time. It is therefore not unusual to encounter related but distinct species on separate mountain peaks. This recent and rapid production of new species contributes significantly to the biodiversity and biological importance of mountain lands (Jeremy, 2014). The flora of the mountains differs from the other areas, due to its unique geology, morphology and climate aspects. It is currently recognized as one of the central regions for flora diversity in the Middle East by the IUCN the World Conservation Union and Worldwide Fund f o r N a t u r e ( IUCN, 1 9 9 4 ) Mountain environments have different climates from the surrounding lowlands, and hence the vegetation differs as well. The differences in climate result from two principal causes: altitude and relief. Altitude affects climate because atmospheric temperature drops with increasing altitude by about 0.5 to 0.6 °C (0.9 to 1.1 °F) per 100 metres (328 feet). The relief of mountains affects climate because they stand in the p a t h o f w i n d s y s t e m s a n d force air to rise over them. As the air rises it cools, leading to higher precipitation on windward mountain slopes (orographic precipitation); as it descends leeward slopes it becomes warmer and relative humidity falls, reducing the likelihood of precipitation and creating areas of drier climate (rain shadows) (Jeremy, 2014). While these general principles apply to all mountains, particular mountain climates vary. For instance, mountains in desert regions receive little rain because the air is almost always too dry to permit precipitation under any conditions. Latitude also can affect mountain climates. Microclimate variations 120 General Discussion are also important in mountain regions, with different aspects of steep slopes exhibiting contrasting conditions due to variations in precipitation and solar energy receipt. In temperate regions mountain slopes facing the Equator— southward in the Northern Hemisphere and northward in the Southern Hemisphere—are significantly warmer than opposite slopes. This can directly and indirectly influence the vegetation; the length of time snow remains on the ground into spring affects when vegetation will emerge, and this in turn affects the land’s utility for grazing (Jeremy, 2014). Mountain soils are usually shallow at higher altitudes, partly because the soil has been scraped off by the ice caps that formed on most high mountains throughout the world during the last glacial interval that ended about 10,000 years ago. Soils are generally poor in nutrients important to plants, especially nitrogen. Rapid erosion of loose materials is also common and is exacerbated by frost heaving, steep slopes, and, in temperate regions, substantial runoff of meltwater in spring. Soil is virtually absent on rocky peaks and ridges. Considering the wide geographic extent of mountains and their resultant geologic and climatic variability, it is remarkable that they exhibit such a clear overall pattern in vegetation (Jeremy, 2014). Plants face severe challenges in arid environments. Problems they need to solve include how to obtain enough water, how to avoid being eaten and how to reproduce. The expression 'available water' refers to water in the soil in excess to the wilting point. The air over a hot desert may actually contain substantial amounts of water vapor but that water may not be generally accessible to plants, except for very specialized organisms. 'Lack of water' refers to use by plants. The water that is actually present in the environment may be sufficient for some species or usages (such as climax vegetation), and grossly insufficient for others. Aridity, the characteristic nature of an arid climate, may thus depend on the use of the land. Regards to the presence of life, what is more important than the degree of rainfall is the fraction of precipitation that is not quickly lost through evaporation or runoff. It can also be characterized by having more evapotranspiration than precipitation. Attempts to quantitatively describe the degree of aridity of a place has often led to the development of aridity indexes. There is no universal agreement on the precise boundaries between classes such as 'hyper-arid', 'arid', 'semi-arid', etc. The clearest characteristics of the desert vegetation are scarcity of plant growth and near lack of trees; many plant species have become endangered due to increasing aridity and human activities. The continuous overgrazing, overcutting and uprooting are leading to the disappearance of the pastoral plant communities, a reduction of plant cover and soil erosion (Hatab, 2003). The high mountains of southern Sinai support mainly Irano-Turanian (west and central Asiatic region) steppe vegetation. Smooth faced rock outcrops supply sufficient runoff water to permit the survival of the unique flora (Hatab, 2009 and Omar, 2013). 121 General Discussion From this study, we found that P. boveana is in extreme danger and by time, it will tend to be in extinct cycle. The sharp decline in population size, number of total individuals, number of mature individuals, and habitat may came from the changing in the world climate, which increase the effect of the main threat to this species (drought). Many explanations found that global warming represents perhaps the most pervasive of the various threats to the planet’s biodiversity, given its potential to affect even areas far from human habitation. Despite this and recent reports outlining the extensive biological changes that are ongoing because of the warming (Parmesan and Yohe 2003), few efforts have been made to assess the potential effects of greenhouse warming on terrestrial biodiversity at a global scale (Noss, 2001). There is no doubt that this improvement or deterioration in the vegetation parameters may be also due to difference in climatic variables, particularly the annual rainfall. In the regions characterized by topographic and physiographic heterogeneity, like the mountainous region in Saint Katharine, the variation in microclimate plays the major role in governing the natural vegetation (Moustafa et al. 2001). A recent exception is (Thomas et al. 2004), who used a climate-envelope modeling approach to look at the potential future distributions of 1103 species in six regions. Their work suggests that restricted-range endemic species may be especially vulnerable, which notable is given recent efforts to prioritize conservation at the global scale by identifying biodiversity hotspots that are of particular value based on their high species richness and endemism (Mayers et al. 2000). Extensive impacts due to global warming within these high-value ecosystems would constitute a key threat to the planet’s biodiversity. Indeed, threats to these ecosystems would presumably constitute the unnatural adaptation of ecosystems that is to be avoided under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Article 2). A characteristic of the steep, open, and rocky habitats where endemic species occur is the stability of such habitats; both in relation to vegetation succession and human activities. In such habitats, environmental constraints on vegetation establishment may limit aboveground competition (due to reduced cover of dominant species) and halt the successional development of a tree cover. Their inaccessibility and unsuitability for cultivation may have allowed such habitats to serve as a refuge for endemic taxa during periods of intense human induced landscape modification (Lavergne et al., 2005). Polunin (1980) pointed out that due to the reduced impact of disturbance by humans and grazing animals, and reduced competition, the vegetation of Mediterranean gorges and cliffs is often rich in endemic species. It is thus probable that the persistence of endemics may have been favoured by their capacity to grow in rocky habitats with fewer competitive interactions, which may have fundamental effects on diversity and the persistence of endemic plants. Habitat stability may be crucial for the persistence of endemic species. 122 General Discussion Narrow endemism is a key ingredient of plant biodiversity in the Mediterranean flora, and also the other Mediterranean-climate regions where ecological specialization in nutrient poor conditions has been a primary determining factor (Cowling et al. 1996). A review of the literature illustrates that ecological differentiation may contribute to the evolution of narrow endemic species in a range of different plant groups (Thompson, 2005). It's recognized that, many rare and/or endemic species like P. boveana have one or more of the following characteristics: (1) They have a narrow (or single) geographical range, (2) they have only one or a few populations remaining, (3) they show small population size and little genetic variability, (4) they are usually over-exploited (overhunted and over-harvested) by people, (5) they exhibit declining population sizes, (6) they have low reproductive ability, (7) they show specialized niche demands, (8) they grow in stable and nearly constant environments. All of these attributes, either alone or in combination, make a species prone to extinction at an increased rate. When habitats of a rare and/or endemic species are damaged and/or fragmented by mismanagement and various other human activities, the distribution ranges, population sizes, and genetic variability of the species will be reduced and its members will become vulnerable to extinction at a faster rate than other species. Species with any one or more of the above attributes must be carefully monitored and managed in an effort to maintain biodiversity (Kani, 2011). Consequently, it is necessary to carry out regular monitoring to keep updated on the population size, distribution & its trends. Researches and workshops must establish rabidly to start in Species Action/Recovery Plan. This dramatic demographic decline observed in P. boveana is likely caused by environmental changes in the past few decades. Habitat deterioration as a consequence of global warming trends is a general threat for the survival not only of P. boveana, but also of other species endemic to the Sinai Mountains (Hoyle and James 2005, Jime´nez et al. 2014). Both temperatures and aridification are expected to increase in the Mediterranean region in the next decades (Alpert et al. 2008, Giorgi and Lionello 2008, Issar, 2008) and predictive models forecast a high extirpation risk for species in the mountains, especially in arid areas (McCain and Colwell 2011). Less precipitation throughout the year would unavoidably reduce the volume of the water flows to which P. boveana is intimately linked, therefore reducing the number and size of habitat patches suitable for this species (Jime´nez et al. 2014). Furthermore, rising human demands on the environment would aggravate the problem of water availability. Besides the direct effect of low water availability on plant survival, an increase in temperatures could definitely affect the flowering phenology of the species and further disrupt the already irregular pollination services (Root et al. 2003, Jime´nez et al. 2014). One of the natural strategies that may buffer P. boveana against the risk of extinction is the build-up of seed banks (Moustafa et al. 2001, Zaghloul, 123 General Discussion 2008, Jime´nez et al. 2014), a strategy previously reported for other primroses (Milberg, 1994, Shimono et al. 2006). Seed banks in arid habitats allow seeds to stay dormant in dry years and germinate when conditions are more favorable to growth and reproduction (Jime´nez et al. 2014). In addition, seed banks can also act as reservoirs of genetic variation, thus delaying the loss of genetic variation and maintaining the evolutionary potential of populations (Zaghloul, 2008, Jime´nez et al. 2014). Therefore, as long as dry periods are interspersed with moister intervals, seed banks could buffer the genetic and demographic erosion of P. boveana. However, as explained above, both temperatures and aridification are expected to increase in the Sinai mountains in the very near future. These measures, mainly focused on habitat preservation, should include a careful management of water resources in the region, restoration of the habitats potentially suitable for P. boveana and, if necessary, occasional artificial irrigation of the populations. In addition, the fenced subpopulations protect the plants from threats of lesser concern currently affecting P. boveana, such as sporadic collections for medicinal uses (Gonza´lez-Tejero, 2008) and grazing (H. Mansour, personal observation), however Kahf Elghola enclosure needs for rapid maintenance. This location showed fast deterioration in the last 5 years resulted from drought and unmanaged collecting for scientific research, its urgent need for closing this site for any visits for at least two years and keep monitoring on the population trend. Elgabal Elahmar subpopulation located inside a fenced enclosure that condensed by plants, this makes this place is like a closed room and will lead to negative impact on species reproduction by time. Number of individuals in this subpopulation is 8 from 2006 to date this number is constant; I think it will be useful if we cut some parts from unranked plant species that surround Primula like Juncus rigidus to increase the size for reproductive success and will decrease the pressure. Many monitoring programmes intend to determine the response of a plant population to a particular management activity, but in reality few monitoring programmes conclusively identify the cause of the response (Nogue´s-Bravo, 2007). As well as monitoring the biological status of a target taxon and its habitat, it is equally important to monitor the status of actual or potential threats, which may be biotic, abiotic or social in nature. This perspective is critical to be able to adjust management interventions to minimize or prevent threat impacts. In this study, we recorded variation in response of some endemic species to in situ conservation (enclosures); and to understand the mechanism of this process we should have enough data about species population dynamics, and about the surrounding environment. In general, the protection of target species against threats especially human activities in Saint Katharine Protectorate when comparing inside by outside resulted in improving the vegetation in terms of its total density, total cover and species richness. While for 10 years protection the situation changes. It was observed that Primula boveana showed positive response to 124 General Discussion 10 years of protection. Primula boveana is restricted species to montane wadis fed by melted snow and distributed in moist ground near wells and sheltered mountain areas. About 67% of this species populations are found inside enclosures; the highly importance of this species, it’s one of the rarest species all over the world and threated by drought, over collecting and unmanaged scientific research. By these threats, this species may be extinct from the wild in the near future and this is the main reason that makes it in the top of our priority for in situ conservation. It was found that such species need to be more protected for long time to regenerate safely (to be ready when suitable conditions become available). The stability of the habitats of endemic species may have not only favoured their persistence but may also have contributed to trait evolution in endemic plants. The study by Lavergne et al. (2004) has also shown that endemic species have lower maternal fertility than their widespread congeners and floral traits associated with inbreeding. They also have fewer populations at the regional level than their widespread congeners. Decreased reproductive effort may be associated with greater longevity. The combination of differences in ecology and fertility suggests marked differences in the population ecology of endemic and widespread species. Populations of endemic species may rely on local persistence (low population turnover), while more widespread species may have populations that are more closely connected to one another by virtue of higher rates of colonisation and extinction. Although there is some evidence that narrow endemics have a more specialised ecology, confirmation of the generality of this issue will require detailed and comparative field studies across the range of the distribution of endemic and widespread congeners, accompanied by transplant experiments to assess the potential roles of dispersal limitation and habitat specificity for the distribution of endemic species. The preservation of genetic diversity is important, because it provides long-term evolutionary potential for changing environmental conditions. There is no clear-cut answer to the question, when losses of diversity become critical. At some point losses will affect local communities, and, at a higher level, they will affect global stability. Conservation of globally endangered plant resources is a critical ecological, cultural and economic issue. Considerable and growing attention has been given in the recent years to issues surrounding the in situ conservation, and ecologically and economically – based sustainable use of populations of wild rare plants. Most conservation focus has been given to individual internationally and regionally economically significant over-exploited endangered medicinal plant species. When choosing species for ex situ conservation, priority should be given to endangered species of global rarity, morphologically and genetically isolated species, monospecific genera, and relict populations (Anonymous, 1995). It’s clearly known that P. boveana facing many threats from drought, overcollicting and climate change that may lead to its extinction in the near 125 General Discussion future. It was observed that P. boveana number of individuals specially adult ones is too small that may reach to be listed it as endangered species and this need a high level of proficient care in dealing with this situation in the near future. The results obtained by Omar and Elgamal (2014) suggest that germination behavior could differ between sites. A warmer and drier climate may contribute to reducing species fitness and increasing the risk of local extinction in the long term. Its recommended that conservation units are not kept too small because this will cause continuous loss of genetic diversity by the effects of genetic drift and increased inbreeding. Considering this, the area has to be large enough for maintaining the genetic integrity of the original population and for generating enough seed production (Baskin and Baskin 1979). Any of the factors that prevent potentially fertile individuals from meeting will reproductively isolate the members of distinct species. The types of barriers that can cause this isolation include: different habitats, physical barriers, and a difference in the time of sexual maturity or flowering (Wu et al. 1995, Wiens, 2004). When factors change, especially physical barriers, often, species will branch off. Since human activities have a strong effect on biodiversity, a population/community level approach is considered to be the level that can help in exploring the responses of the whole ecological system to various kinds of disturbance. The Saint Katherine area is an arid to extremely arid region, is characterized by an ecological uniqueness due to its diversity in landforms a variety of landform types: terraces, gorges, slopes, ridges, wadis and plains. It was observed from this study that enclosures distributed in all landform. These landform type and other elements such as elevation, soil physical characteristics (including soil texture and nature of surface), slope, aspect and topography all play an important role in determining the distribution of plant communities as agreed with (Ayyad, and Ammar 1974, Danin, 1983). Ecologists concerned with the size of geographic range of species pointed out that, in certain cases, the range decreases with decreasing elevation (Brown et al. 1996). Soil moisture availability, which is a function of altitude variation, slope degree, nature of soil surface and soil texture, is the most limiting factor in the distribution of plant communities in South Sinai that agrees with (Moustafa, and Zaghloul 1996, Moustafa, and Zayed 1996). The results of evaluation of monitoring data will help to pinpoint where, and how, a plan should be remodeled. Restructuring or redesign of plan elements based on the results of this study, will contribute to adaptive management, i.e. management which is responsive to changing conditions and project objectives. The plan should set out the time intervals (mid-term, terminal) between evaluations and should state who (individual, organization, or agency) will carry out evaluations and who will be the recipients of reports. 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Zaghloul, M.S. 2008. Diversity in soil seed bank of Sinai and implications for conservation and restoration. Afr J Environ Sci Technol 2:172–184. 129 Conclusion & Recommendations Conclusion & Recommendations CONCLUSION: 1- IUCN Red List assessment is a simple and effective tool for conservation status determination especially for endemic species. With small accurate data about your target species focused on its geographical range, population, habitat, and threats it’s easy to rank your species in suitable level as a first point for complete conservation process. 2- It’s not needed to collect all data required for IUCN assessment; for example you can list your species as Critically Endangered species if you have only data about its geographical range. However it’s preferable to collect data as you can to cover all criteria to reflect a good detailed picture about the species situation on land in order to start a perfect conservation planning and design suitable actions. 3- The distribution, population size, demography, reproduction, and genetics of restricted endemic species like Primula boveana seems to be highly affected by environmental variation like topography, climate, and soil properties. In the regions characterized by topographic and physiographic heterogeneity, like the mountainous region in Saint Katharine, the variation in microclimate plays the major role in governing the natural vegetation and irregularity of rainfall may lead to fluctuations in all species aspects. 4- Primula boveana qualifies to be Critically Endangered because it is endemic to a tiny area (EOO 13 km², AOO <6 km²) of the high mountain area of the St. Katherine Protectorate in southern Sinai, Egypt. The total population size of mature individuals is less than 200, distributed among seven subpopulations. Because the main threat is drought and climate change, effectively there is only one location. There is a continuing decline in habitat quality for this species, with evidence of declines in subpopulation numbers as well as strong fluctuations through time. Climate change is projected to further reduce the available habitat of this high-elevation specialist (table 15). 5- The most important natural threats to this species are the long-lasting droughts, the very scarce irregular precipitation during the year, the fragmentation inherent to its habitat, and the possibility that rare floods may cause harm such as uprooting (5% loss observed). Apart from climate change, the most important human impacts are reductions in water availability caused by collection for human consumption from the nearby areas, possible sheep and goat grazing, insect pests that eat the vegetative parts and may cause 130 Conclusion & Recommendations reductions in plant vigour (observed), and a species of ant that collects the seeds, perhaps causing reductions in the reproductive rate. 6- Although the target species is totally located inside protected area and partly conserved through in situ and ex situ technics in the past within the regulations and policies of the park, much more however is urgently needed. 7- The outcome of the undertaken study; A general model is presented describing ecosystem degradation to help decide when restoration, rehabilitation, or reallocation should be the preferred response. Table 15. Conservation requirements for better conservation program for P. boveana. Environmental variable Status Geographical Variables Latitude Longitude Distribution EOO AOO Elevation Aspect Slope rate Climatic Variables Annual minimum temp. Annual maximum temp. Precipitation Population Characteristics Number of population Number of subpopulation Population Size Mature Individuals Habitat and ecology Habitats Microhabitats Vegetation parameters Associated species Phenology, flowering season Fruiting season Seed availability for collect Germination rate Edaphic Variables Geological preference 33.9331°, 33.9715° 28.6123°, 28.4575° High elevation region , world heritage site (five main very small localities (Shaq Elgragenia, Shaq Mousa, Elgabal Elahmar, Kahf Elghola, and Sad Abu Hebiq)). Less than 13 km2 Less than 6 km2 1745 - 2210 m North East and East 55°to 90°. 8.09-11.08 19.46-22.28 4.08-9.25 1 9 but 7 with IUCN criteria 165 individuals 165 Rocky mountain Cliffs, Cave, and Gorges Density: 0.16 - 22, Abundant: 4 - 535, Cover: 0.01 1.8. Size Index: 4.5 - 6 Adiantum capillus-veneris L., Mentha longifolia (L.) Huds., Hypericum sinaicum Boiss. and Juncus rigidus Desf. From April to July. From July to September Shaq Mousa, Shaq Elgragenia 33% - 77% Granitic rocks 131 Conclusion & Recommendations Flow direction Hillshad Soil texture Chemical properties Use and Trade Threats Areas under extreme risk Conservation action needed Research needed Low Low incoming solar radiation sandy, loamy sand, and sandy loam Average pH 8.3 (7.6-8.8), water content 1.4 (0.7-2.1), EC 903 μs/ cm (38-3390), organic matter 4.2% (17.8), CaCo3 16.3% (14-19), Mg 4.3 meq/L (1-11.5), HCo3 10.5 meq/L (5-14.3), Cl 7.9 meq/L (4.7-12.5), and So4 70 meq/L (275-133), not used Long-lasting droughts, climate change, habitat fragmentation, inbreeding depression, unmanaged collecting. Kahf Elghola and Sad Abu Hebik In situ (Restoration, benign introduction, reintroduction. Ex situ (Seed collection, artificial propagation from seeds, botanical garden, seed storage, tissue culture, cultivation, Seed bank, freezing cuts from the plant, or stocking the seeds, Tissue bank, Cryobank, Pollen bank, and Field gene bank), Educational and environmental awareness. Population size, distribution & trends, genetics, Species Action/Recovery Plan, Area-based Management Plan, Population and Habitat trends. RECOMMENDATIONS: 1- There is an urgent need to integrate the knowledge derived from ecological, demographic and genetic approaches to species conservation in order to be able to formulate management strategies that take into account all different considerations. 2- Species recovery is highly recommended through rehabilitation, restoration, reintroduction, and benign introduction in areas that have similar environmental conditions. 3- There is an urgent need to conserve the species outside its habitat (Ex situ) though seed collection, artificial propagation from seeds, botanical garden, seed storage, tissue culture, cultivation, seed bank, freezing cuts from the plant, or stocking the seeds, Tissue bank, Cryobank, Pollen bank, and Field gene bank. 4- Enforce legislation: Enforcement of the current legislation is urgent, in particular preventing over collecting of P. boveana by avoiding the use of illegal collecting techniques and ensuring the compliance with the current closed season obligations. In addition, legislation to protect threatened species and their critical habitats must be reinforced to prevent these highly threatened species to disappear, causing major losses of fundamental ecosystem services (recommended by IUCN). 5- Raising awareness through biodiversity information: Effective educational programmes with special focus on children need to be 132 Conclusion & Recommendations implemented in order to raise awareness about the importance of threatened species, their habitats’ conservation and the threats increasingly faced by this biome. Moreover, educational projects oriented to all the population levels about the value of species and conservation and the need of more efficient techniques for the utilization of this resource are needed. Due to the rapid development of the region, it is fundamental to provide politicians, legislators and other relevant stakeholders with key biodiversity information about the status of freshwater ecosystems and the importance of its integration in short and long term decision-making and planning (Highly recommended by IUCN). 6- Data deficiency and research: Research efforts focusing on species for which there is currently little knowledge must be dramatically increased. A Data Deficient listing does not mean that species are not threatened. In fact, as knowledge improves, such species are often found to be amongst the most threatened (or suspected as such from available evidence). It is therefore essential to direct research efforts and funding towards these species as well as those in threatened (Highly recommended by IUCN). 7- There is an urgent need to carry out annual monitoring on species population trend, habitat trend, fluctuations, and reduction probability to fellow up its situation. 8- Integrated protocols should be established with ministries of scientific research, agriculture, industry for dealing with target species as Critically Endangered, and need urgent special care. 9- It is recommend using this study specially this species as a base line to detect the effect of global warming on species distribution by annual monitoring. 10- It’s highly recommended when you start a new assessment to go through IUCN Assessment website (http://www.iucnredlist.org/technical-documents/assessment-process), this step will facilitate the process to the maximum through detailed documentation about assessment process, information required, guidelines and many related documents. 133 Buy your books fast and straightforward online - at one of world’s fastest growing online book stores! 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