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Pension Funds in Slovakia – Consequences for the Economy Peter Golias INEKO - Institute for Economic and Social Reforms Economic Forum – Krynica, Poland September 2005 Overview of pension funds • Voluntary pension funds (3rd pillar) - since 1995, popular thanks to tax relieves - approx. 1% GDP, 0.62 mil. clients • Mandatory pension funds (2nd pillar) - since 2005 - 9% of gross wage (biggest in Europe) - 0.8% of GDP in 2005, 160% GDP in 2080 - 1.4 mil. clients in 2006 (expected) Krynica, September 2005 Impact on future pensions Replacement rates (%) if entering the 2nd pillar, working period: 2005 - 2052 a – real average yearly net appreciation of assets in 2nd pillar (%) w – average yearly real wage growth (%), Demography held constant a\w -2 0 2 4 -2 47.33 39.88 35.80 33.42 0 68.63 51.57 42.72 37.83 2 115.89 76.03 56.28 45.91 4 194.00 113.75 75.51 56.28 Note: Red color shows when FF outperforms PAYG. Source: INEKO Impact is unclear - it is impossible to predict a/w 40 years from now! Krynica, September 2005 Mitigating demography risk There are predictions, that demography would get worsen in Slovakia: Dependency ratio in % Expectations in Dependency Ratio Development 80 60 40 20 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 Retirement age 65 2030 2040 2050 Retirement age 62 Source: Demographic Research Centre in the SR Note: Dependency ratio equals the number of people above the retirement age divided by the number of people between 18 and retirement age. Mitigating demography risk Price of Stocks and Demography Crisis 12 Price 10 Supply (t) 8 Demand (t) 6 Supply (T) 4 Demand (T) 2 0 Quantity Supply shifts right - more pensioners are willing to sell their shares. Demand shifts left - fewer workers are willing to buy shares. Demography crisis decreases the rate of return on capital! Krynica, September 2005 Mitigating demography risk Country with negative demography expectations can avoid possible downturn in pensions (i.e. replacement rates) by exporting capital to the economy with stable or positive demography changes. Krynica, September 2005 Public finance deficit 0 % of GDP -1 -2 2004 2005 -3,3 -3,4 2006 -2,9 2007 -1,6 -1,4 -3 -4 -0,8 -1,3 -5 Without 2nd pillar 2nd pillar Source: Ministry of finance of the SR Note: Slovakia plans to launch “euro” since 2009 Krynica, September 2005 2008 -1,3 -1,4 Public finance deficit • Sources for financing transition costs: - privatization revenues (€1.75 billion) - taxes - state loans • 2nd pillar should have neutral direct effect on domestic consumption Krynica, September 2005 Work incentives • Half of the old-age pension contributions were diverted into private, inheritable accounts managed by private funds • Contribution-benefit link got stronger: - The highest-to-lowest pension ratio rises from 1.8 to 5.8 - All redistribution was taken out of pensions and transferred to the welfare system • Reform motivates to work legally and pay contributions!!! Krynica, September 2005 Conclusions Pension funds: • Are popular in Slovakia • Do not guarantee higher pensions • Allow for mitigating demography risk • Transfer from PAYG to mandatory funds burdens public finance, but has no effect on domestic consumption • Help to improve legal work incentives Krynica, September 2005