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The Effect of Inter-regional Migration on Regional Economy Disparity in China (1990-2005) Lianqing Peng South China Normal University Outline 1. Introduction 2. Survey of Studies 3. The Characteristics of Labor Migration in China 4. The Empirical Study 5. Conclusions 1.Introduction Since the implementation of policy of reform and China’s “opening up” to the outside world, there has been massive migration from Chinese inland countryside to coastal cities. This has deeply changed Chinese economic development and social life, and has influenced regional economic disparity. This study looks at the effect of massive inter-regional migration on the economic gap across provinces. It asks if this migration is narrowing or widening regional economy disparity. 2. Survey of Studies The New-Classical Economic theory: (narrowing) the inter-regional migration →the regional economy convergence (Braun, 1993; Barro and Sala-i-Martin, 1995) The New Economic Geography theory: (could do both) the inter-regional migration →Widening of the gap →Narrowing of the gap (Krugman & Venables,1996; Baldwin, Forslid, Martin,2003) Many Chinese Scholars’ empirical studies: The inter-regional migration has widened the gap in across China’s regions. Why couldn’t the inter-regional migration lead to the regional economic convergence? May suggest that this is because of China’s hukou polices. Shi Li (2003), ( Du, et al.,2005),Qin (2006), Cai(2007) Duan(2008), Cheng(2012) 3. The Characteristics of Labor Migration in China 3.1 Five Periods and the scale of Chinese migration Five Periods of Chinese migration Year Stage Description Period 1 1979-1983 Period 2 1984-1992 Beginning movement(allowed but controlled ) Allowing movement/loosening (most of migrants were peasants) Period 3 1993-1997 Period 4 1998-2005 Period 5 2006-present Accelerating movement/loosening (most of migrants were peasants) Accelerating movement/loosening (more and more urban labors migrate) Accelerating movement/loosening (more movement trends) 3.1 Five Periods and the scale of Chinese migration The 1st stage, 1979-1983 Implementation of Chinese reform and opening policies which encourages the beginning of a labor market. Some farmers migrate to cities to make a living. 3.1 Five Periods and the scale of Chinese migration The 2nd stage, 1984-1992 More and more farmers move to work in local factories in Eastern China(Jianshu, Zhejiang, Guangdong) because the rise of non-state-owned companies. 3.1 Five Periods and the scale of Chinese migration The 3rd stage, 1993-1997 The market economy had rapidly developed in eastern region. Mass migrants moved to cities in Eastern region from Chinese inland (central and western) countryside. 3.1 Five Periods and the scale of Chinese migration The 3rd stage, 1993-1997 The labor supply exceeded the demand in many Eastern cities contributed to many social problems. Unpaid wages, the boss can’t pay the workers on time 3.1 Five Periods and the scale of Chinese migration The 4th stage, 1998-2005 Many state-owned companies began to reform and layoff workers who also become unemployed in Chinese inland( central and western) cities. Many labors moved to cities in Eastern region from Chinese inland(central and western) cities. 3.1 Five Periods and the scale of Chinese migration The 5th stage, 2006-present The geographic trends of migrating started to change as more migrants moved to Chinese inland cities Migrants start to settle down in the cities and urbanization accelerates. Eastern cities began to experience labor shortages. 3.1 Five Periods and the scale of Chinese migration The Scale of Migration Other estimation ten thousands Census and sample survey Year 1983 1987 1989 1990 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2005 2010 Inter-towns Inter-counties Inter-provinces Inter-towns 200 3000 6200 8000 7223 3890 4936 5204 - 4300 5200 4487 2602 3218 3622 - 700 2050 2400 2364 1488 1872 2125 - 3053 3413 5400 14439 14735 22143 Inter-provinces 632 1183 2500 4242 4779 8588 3.2 Flows of migration inflow areas To eastern 1987 1990 1995 2000 2005 To central 1987 1990 1995 2000 2005 To western 1987 1990 1995 2000 2005 Sum outflow areas From eastern From central From western 5252.0% .0% 54.6% 63.1 % 75.0 % 84.6 % 84.6% 49.7% 56.0% 63.5% 64.4% 78.3% 61.7% 59.0% 71.8% 84.3% 89.8% 44.2% 49.3% 56.5% 68.3% 80.1% 24.6% 24.0% 18.8% 9.8% 5.5% 31.3% 28.4% 20.5% 19.7% 10.9% 21.8% 23.5% 12.7% 7.1% 4.4% 21.2% 20.4% 13.4% 7.9% 4.4% 23.3% 21.4% 18.1% 15.3% 9.9% 18.9% 15.6% 16.1% 15.9% 10.8% 16.6% 17.5% 15.5% 8.6% 5.8% 34.6% 30.3% 30.2% 23.9% 15.5% 3.2 Flows of migration Migration occurred mainly from the central and western regions to the eastern region which is more developed. Main outflow areas Main inflow areas 3.3 The main characteristics of labor migration (1) The synchronization : inter-regional migration and inter-sector migration. Outflow areas Inflow areas Year From countryside to countryside city countryside city 1982-1987 68.0% 32.0% 23.6% 76.4% 74.4% 1985-1990 62.5% 37.5% 17.3% 82.7% 78.5% 1990-1995 59.8% 40.3% 28.6% 71.4% 60.2% 1995-2000 58.7% 41.3% 11.9% 88.2% 69.0% 2000-2005 61.3% 38.7% 15.6% 84.4% 80.3% city 3.3 The main characteristics of labor migration (1) The synchronization : inter-regional migration and inter-sector migration. The structure of employment of inter-regions labors industry % eastern central western sum The primary industry 5.68 31.94 22.07 8.27 The secondary industry 74.85 33.27 32.26 69.56 Manufacturing 66.41 17.16 16.58 60.19 Construction 7.33 9.57 12.37 7.81 Other 1.12 6.54 3.3 1.57 The tertiary industry 19.47 34.79 45.68 22.17 3.3 The main characteristics of labor migration (2) "circular migrants“ Many migrants had dual identity: Farmer working in the city Job in the city and family in the countryside Regular movement The structure of population in some eastern cities(2005) thousand City T-POP Have hukou No hukou Ratio (no hukou) Beijing 15380 11841 3539 23.01% Shanghai 17780 13603 4177 23.49% Guangzhou 9942 7029 2913 29.30% Shenzhen 7009 1223 5786 82.55% Dongguan 6446 1544 4901 76.04% Fushai 5338 3284 2054 38.48% 3.3 The main characteristics of labor migration (3) Selective migration hasn’t emerged in the eastern region. The average years of education of migrants in eastern region was less than that in central and western regions. The average years of education of migrants leaving eastern region was more than that in central and western regions. The average years of education of immigrants year Flow out From eastern From central From western sum Flow in To eastern - 9.01 8.76 8.91 To central 10.23 - 9.38 9.88 To western 9.77 9.01 - 9.32 sum 10.02 9.01 8.82 4. The Empirical Study 4.1 The Evolution of Regional Economy Disparity in China The gap of regional economy had narrowed from 1978 to 1990, but widened from 1991 to 2005. The Coefficient of Variance (COV) of per capita GDP each province in China 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 0 4.1 The Evolution of Regional Economy Disparity in China The gap of regional economy had narrowed from 1978 to 1990, but widened from 1991 to 2005. the contrast of per capita GDP in three regions Year 1990 1995 2000 2005 Eastern 100 100 100 100 Central 60.47 51.98 49.22 47.56 Western 52.25 43.17 38.56 39.82 * The per capita GDP in eastern region was assumed “100”. 4.1 The Evolution of Regional Economy Disparity in China The gap of regional economy had narrowed from 1978 to 1990, but widened from 1991 to 2005. Had the inter-regional migration caused the Regional Economy the contrast of per capita GDP in three regions Disparity?(which verifies the hypothesis of New Economics) Year 1990 1995 2000 2005 Geography). It is difficult to solve the problem by the Conventional Eastern 100 method of econometrics. 100 100 100 Central the question, 60.47 Taylor 51.98 49.22 47.56 To answer and Williamson(1997) Proposed ask another: Westerna new method. 52.25 They 43.17 38.56what would 39.82 * Thethe per measured capita GDP in convergence eastern region washad assumed “100”. have been there been no (net) migration? 4.2 The Method of Study Laborer is producer and consumer. on the one hand, more migrants means more input factors, which is beneficial for the output; on the other hand, more migrants may influence the per capita GDP. So, the impact of migration to per capita GDP in inflow area and outflow area depends on the comparation of the migration elasticity of output and the migration elasticity of population. Taylor and Williamson Proposed a new method to estimate the two elasticity. The method of mathematical derivation in the appendix 4.3 Analysis of the results The results: Table 1990 Table 2000 Table 2005 The result shows that the inter-regional migration narrowed the gap of regional economy. In other words, the inter-regional migration caused regional economy convergence. 4.4 An explanation: the income of migrants transferred Most of migrants’ income was earned in the city but transferred to their families in central and western regions. The amount of income transferred from immigration in eastern region Year Per worker Income transferred ($) Labors(flew in eastern region), million From central From western Income transferred(from eastern), $ billion To central To western 1990 205.28 0.96 1.24 0.29 0.38 2000 546.80 14.48 7.93 11.87 6.51 2005 618.49 18.36 10.70 17.03 9.93 5. Conclusions 1.The China’s inter-regional migration led to more efficient allocation of labors across regions, which was helpful in national economic growth. 2.The eastern region was a net in-migration region, and labor migration had promoted economic development in the eastern region; At the same time, the wages (or income) of migrants had been raised. 3.The central and western regions were the net emigration region, where many rural families of emigration benefits through income transfers from the eastern region. As a result, the growth rate of percapita consumption and per-capita income had been greatly increasing, which also promoted regional development. 4. The China’s inter-regional migration has caused convergence not divergence of regional economies. Thank you 4.2 The Method of Study Assume a aggregate production function for output, Y=F(L, K, R) where Y is total output, L is labor input, K is capital and R is land. we assume the producer price P is equal to one. taking K and R as fixed. Y F ( L, ...) dY FL ( L, ...)dL (1) 4.2 The Method of Study Y F ( L, ...) dY FL ( L, ...)dL (1) Under long-run full employment conditions, competitive wages are equal to labor’s marginal product, where w is wage. w FL (L, ...) (2) Solving (1) and (2), produces an equation (3), . dY w dL (3) 4.2 The Method of Study dY w dL (3) Divide two sides of equation (3) By Y , produces an new equation(4). dY w wL dL dL Y Y Y L dY dL we assume Y*= ,L* Y L wL * wL * * Y L L ( ) Y Y (4) (5) In equation(5) , θ is the ratio of wages in output, approximately equal to the migration elasticity of output. 4.2 The Method of Study we assume: M is cumulative net migration rate, POP*= M; a share αM of its migrant stream is active in the labor force, while its total population has an active share αP. Moreover, assume that migrants have an effective-worker (or worker-quality) ratio of μ with respect to the total labor force. the labor content of the population is: L =αP POP and the labor content of the migrant flow is: dL = μαM M POP 4.2 The Method of Study the labor content of the population is: L =αP POP and the labor content of the migrant flow is: dL = μαM M POP Migrant streams of population measured by M can be converted into labor supply shocks L* . dL M L M M L P * M ( ) P (6) Defining γ = (the migrant-to-population ratio of labor-force participation rates) 4.2 The Method of Study wL * Y L L* Y * wL ( ) Y (5) dL M M L M M ( ) (6) L P P We can now derive the simulation equations used to calculate the impact of migration on per capita GDP: * (Y / POP)* Y* POP* L* M ( 1)M (7) If we estimate M, θ and γ , we can calculate the impact of migration on per capita GDP. Then we can estimate per capita GDP without migration. So we can appraise the change of the gap of per capita GDP between outflow area and inflow area, which approximatively measures the Effect of Inter-regional Migration to Regional Economy Disparity. Data and estimation of parameters This paper calculated M, θ by analyzing the data of 1990,2000 Population Census and 2005 Population Sample Survey. This paper estimated γ with the ratio of Compensation of Employees in GDP each province. Data were from The Chinese Statistical Yearbook. return