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Welcome from the CIPS Family Please open your books and read the Course Overview before class begins EUROPE And International Real Estate Those Who Benefit Experienced International Professionals European Real Estate Financer’s Getting Started • • • • • • • • Networking is a #1 priority Stand up Take out business cards Circulate for 3 minutes Meet as many people as you can Exchange cards Can you help one another? READY?......GO!!!! What 3 events facilitated unification? How many countries in European Union? Is Turkey an EU member? Turkey’s major obstacle to EU membership? What is the population of Turkey? Who is the Global Real Estate Business Facilitator? What is the Major Fear of Unification? Course Objectives Assess market opportunities Develop a business network Identify promotion techniques Course Objectives Discuss social, economic, political and geographical characteristics Discuss history, purpose, and economic impact of EU Identify Important market characteristics Class Notes • • • • • • • Turn off cell phones Scheduled breaks Lunch break Activities Task groups Final exam Let’s get started! Globalization Globalization Impact Investor movement Globalization Impact 60% invest in countries outside their own Globalization Impact A 12% increase in global investment (2004) Globalization Impact • International investors expect real estate professionals to have thorough knowledge: Markets Economies Business and social cultures How to successfully compete Capital Flow • Underlying forces - Supply and demand - Investment return • German economy performing poorly - Investors going outside Germany - Until German economy improves, German capital will continue moving elsewhere Capital flow impacts international transactions Currency Exchange Rates • Provide insights – Country economic performance – Country financial performance • Influenced by trade deficits – Higher deficit = negative impact Strong and Weak Currencies Demonstration As the Euro gets stronger It’s exchange rate goes down It takes LESS euros to buy 1 US$ 1 euro = 1 US$ Euro temperature [exchange rate] goes DOWN 1 euro costs 1.30US$ US$ temperature [exchange rate] goes UP 1 US$ = 1 euro As the dollar gets weaker It’s exchange rate goes up It takes MORE US$ 1 US$ costs .766 euro to buy 1 euro. Investors • A WEAK dollar makes US real estate more attractive. • A STRONG dollar makes foreign real estate more attractive Market Assessment • • • • • • • Political stability Population equilibrium Free market philosophy Social harmony Democratic institutions Adequate infrastructure Underlying economic strength Additional Points • • • • • • • Cultural Influences Core cultural values Client expectations Client needs Conducting business Experienced banks International differences Foreign Currencies and Measures Three Conversion Steps Currency Area Time Reciprocals • Exchange rates reported in two forms – Foreign units equaling one domestic unit – Domestic units equaling one foreign unit • These numbers are reciprocals • Reflect both sides of currency value • Reciprocals are 1 ÷ conversion factor [exchange rate] Conversions If you are converting: The exchange rate is: US$ to euros US$1 = €.81 Euros to US$ 1€ = US$1.23 If you are converting: The reciprocal is: US$ to euros 1 ÷ €.81=US$1.23 Euros to US$ 1 ÷ US$1.23 = €.81 Conversion #1 Convert 850 euros to US$ €850 X US$1.23 = _________ 1045.50 Conversion #2 Convert US$15.30 to euros US$15.30 X €.81 = __________ €12.39 Conversion #3 Two years ago the exchange rate was US$1 = €.924 or 1€ = US$ 1.082 What would a $300,000 house cost in euros? US$ 300,000 X _____ .924 = €_________ 277,200 What would the same house cost in euros today? US$ 300,000 X ________ = € _________ .81 243,000 How much difference did the exchange rate make? €___________ or in US$ ___________ 34,200 42,066 Conversion #4 Use same conversion rates for a €650,000 office building. What was the value in US$ 2 years ago? €650,000 X __________ = US$ __________ 1.082 703,300 What is the value in US$ today? €650,000 X __________ = US$ __________ 1.23 799,500 How much difference did the conversion rate make in these examples? US$__________ 96,200 Converting Square Meters to Square Feet The Conversion Factors are: 1 square meter (m²) = 10.7639 square feet 1 square foot = .0929 square meters Converting m² to ft² = MORE ft² Converting ft² to m² = LESS m² Square Meters to Square Feet Formula: Square meters X 10.7639 Mr. and Mrs. Schmidt want a 250 square meter home. How many square feet will it be? 250 meters X 10.7639 = ______ 2690 sq. ft. Square Feet to Square Meters Formula: Square feet X .0929 (1÷ 10.7639) How many meters in 20,000 square feet? 1858 m² 20,000 sq. ft. X .0929 = __________m² Convert Price Per Unit of Area Formula: Price/Unit of Area X Area Conversion Factor Apartment rents for €1000/m²/month Calculate rent in square feet €1000 X .0929 = €92.9/sq.ft./mo. [Price/m² X Meter to Sq.ft. Conversion Factor(.0929)= Price per sq.ft./mo.] Convert the Time Period Price Per Month X 12 = Price Per Year Price Per Year ÷ 12 = Price Per Month Putting it Together Exchange Rates Conversion Rates US$ = €.81 €1 = US$1.23 1 sq. ft. = .0929 m² 1 m² = 10.7639 sq. ft. Currency: €70.83 X 1.23 = US$87.12/m²/mo. Area: US$87.12 ÷ 10.7639 = US$8.09/sq.ft./mo. Time: US$8.09/sq.ft./mo X 12 = US$97.13/sq.ft./yr. Key Point Review • • • • • Economic affects of globalization How culture influences transactions Expertise in market assessment Currency and area conversion skills Strengthening and weakening of currencies. The European Union Europe as an Economic Region Europe Four Significant Events Integration of the EU German Unification Democratization Monetary Union Maastricht Treaty--1992 • • • • • • Common foreign and security policy Cooperation on immigration and asylum European police intelligence agency EU citizenship and a central bank Development of poorer EU countries One currency European market Copenhagen Criteria 1. Democracy, rule of law, human rights and protection of minorities 2. Functioning market economy 3. Accept obligations of membership EU Constitution Concerns • • • • • • Dwindling national identity Rapidly expanding EU Integration Shrinking economies Islamic radicalism Distrust of powerful bureaucrats Euro Issue Requirements • Price stability • Sustainable government finances • Stable exchange rate • Convergence in long term interest rates EURO Coins • • • • Common side • Germany has five mints National side Must have 12 EU stars • Mint Codes – A Berlin Greek coins may be – D Munich made outside Greece – E—Spain – F—France – S---Finland – F Stuttgart – G Karlsruhe – J Hamburg European Union Goals Support democracy Rule of law Human rights Individual liberty Promote prosperity and social progress European Union Goals Safeguard peace Promote international security Reinforce role of UN European Union Goals Sound world economic policies Sustained growth Low inflation High employment Equitable social conditions Stability European Union Goals Promote market principles Reject protectionism Expand and open multilateral trading system European Union Goals Help developing countries toward economic reforms European Union Goals Support nations of Eastern and Central Europe Encourage participation in international trade and finance EU Institutional System Commission Council of Ministers [Executive Branch] [Senate] Executive European Parliament [House of Representatives] Court of Justice [Supreme Court] Areas of Concern Terrorist attacks Weakening of Executive Commission Admission of former communist countries Passage of EU Constitution The EU and Eastern Europe • Established programs to accelerate the reform process to EU membership • These agreements provide: – Preferential trade treatment – Guidelines for adaptation of local laws to EU legislation – Free movement of capital EU, Mediterranean and Middle East • Allow one-way duty-free exports of Industrial products • Agricultural concessions • Grants and loans to EU markets Euro-Arab Dialogue • 20-year economic contact • Topics under discussion: – Technology transfer – Investment incentives – Trade – Labor problems – Establishment of free-trade area – Cultural exchange Cotonou Agreement • Replaced Lome Convention June 2000 • 20 year agreement with 77 ACP states • Poverty reduction is principal objective – Political dialog – Development aid – Closer economic and trade cooperation Impact on International Real Estate New Regulations On International Transactions Competition Domestic employment Trade Increased use and understanding of International standards and regulations Creation of International Investment Rules Integration Concerns Increased worker and industry mobility New real estate opportunities due to supply and demand Increased international investment opportunities Decrease of exchange rate fluctuations Country of Origin Principle • Encourages reciprocity • Problematic due to: – Some states protect property title, access to and work within real estate profession – Some control only access to profession – Some regulate access but not practice of real estate – Some member countries control nothing • National planning and policies unlikely Ownership Attitudes Common Law Civil Law Nature of Commercial Leases Ownership Motivation Land Registration • • • • Comprehensive title registration is rare Some countries have full cadastral system Land registry in others is proof of title Former Communist countries claims are problematic VAT Taxes • VAT reductions and low interest rates have kept European housing market robust Financing • Integration is: – Liberalizing capital movement and financial services – Should increase money supply for property • • • • Sources are varied Some builders provide own funding Equity financing common in UK Debt financing common on continent International Professional Networks Key Point Review • • • • Four significant European developments Present state of unification Understanding the European market Challenges ahead for EU A. United Kingdom B. June 23, 2000 1. Transparency C. Twenty-five 2. Land Registry System D. Registration considered proof of ownership 3. VAT 4. Balloon Mortgages 5. Contonou Agreement 6. Zero Coupon Bonds 7. Country of Origin E. Laid groundwork for single EU currency F. Encourages real estate reciprocity among EU countries. 8. Countries in EU G. Ability to understand and apply 9. Maastricht Treaty H. Value-Added-Tax I. Germany Exercise #2 Economic and Real Estate Trends Objectives Analyze European real estate trends Discuss FDI investment by European countries Review status of REITs in Germany Assess economic trends and markets in Eastern European countries Germany 2002 Population 2003 2005 83.3 82.42 82.43 2,174.0 2,271.0 2,446.0 26,200.0 27,600 29,700 .06 -0.10 .80 Inflation 2.40 1.10 2.0 Unemployme nt 9.40 10.5 11.6 GDP [billion] GDP/Capita GDP Growth Germany • Europe’s largest, most populous economy – Slow growth expected through 2006 – Budget deficit above 3% EU Stability Pact limit • 4th consecutive year – Inflation around 2% France • Third quarter 2004: – GDP fell – End user consumption fell – Investment fell • Modest growth of 1.75% expected in 2005 • Inflation above 2% • Budget deficit around 3% for 2005-2006 United Kingdom • Slower consumer spending in 2004 • UK reduced growth to 3.1% • Expected to continue through 20051006 • Inflation expected to rise to 2% • Interest rates should be at their peak • Tax increase may be necessary Italy • Slow, steady growth in 2004 • Projected increases in 2005 and 2006 • Growth aided by low inflation/interest rates • Exports expected to improve – Provided no further appreciation of the euro against the dollar Spain • Best performer of larger Euroland economies • Growth of 2.75% in 2005-2006 • Steady consumer spending • Increased investment • Increased exports • Inflation above average • Strong euro hurts their competitive position Netherlands • Slow growth due to: – Strong euro – Weakening external demand for goods – Tighter fiscal policy • Expected increase in 2006 to 2.25% Sweden • Strong investment is growing the GDP • Growth to 3% in 2005 and 2.75% in 2006 • Increased consumer spending good sign • Labor market improvements aid growth • Low inflation helps maintain low interest rates Switzerland • Hard hit by: – Decline in world trade – Turmoil in financial services sector • Decline reflected in low GDP growth – .2% 2002 – 1.8% 2004 – 1.75 in 2005 and 2006 expected Belgium • Slow domestic demand kept inflation low • Increased exports • Improved competitive position • Concerns: – Weakness in trading partners – Large appreciation of the euro • GDP for 2005-2006 expected at 2.5% Austria • • • • • • Strong economy during 2004 Robust export growth Domestic demand remained weak GDP for 2005 expected to be 2.25% GDP for 2006 expected to be 2.5% Investment expected to increase as exports moderate Ireland • 5% GDP expected for 2005 • 4.75% GDP in 2006 • Irish economy exposed to any renewed downturn in international economic activity Greece • Economy expected to grow to 2.75% in 2005 • 2006 growth expected at 3% • Strength of economy could bring inflationary pressures Future Growth of EU • Depends upon: – Stability of global economies – Controlling inflation – Restructuring market and welfare programs – Consumer spending – Demand from the USA and Asia • Strong euro – Buy foreign goods for less – Make euro-based exports cost more Changes in Real Estate Markets • • • • Global debt crash in 1998 Global credit crunch in early 1900s Introduction of euro and its strength Radical changes in currency exchange rates • New national tax laws • Global reforms in private property rights Europe as Attractive Investment Market • Huge market with potentially high yields • Broad range of investment opportunities • Diverse range of categories • Governments privatizing municipal facilities • Easing tax barriers encourage foreign investment 2005 European Housing Market Reviews Austria • • • • • Static 2003-2004 Renewed activity expected for 2005 High owner occupied rate [50%] Low taxes Capital gains exempt after 3 years Belgium • • • • • • • Housing boom continues 80% higher than 8 years ago Low interest rates Favorable tax system High exchange costs Mortgage interest relief on taxes Commercial lease terms 3, 6, 9 years Denmark • • • • • • Optimistic housing market Price increases of 14.8% Low interest rates Building incentives 4.9% growth in residential investment Owner-occupied mortgage interest relief • 25+ year loan terms Finland • Favorable mortgage rates • Tax deductible mortgage interest • Capital gains tax free after 2 years as principal residence • Loan periods 17-18 years • 7.6% housing growth expected in 2004 • Housing prices decreasing France • Housing boom strengthened in 2004 • Prices up 16% for existing and 10% new construction • Housing “price bubble” of concern to lenders • Low interest rates • Market shifting to ownership • No mortgage interest tax relief • Capital gains exempt Germany • • • • • • Housing market flat in 2004 East Germany has an oversupply Prices falling for a decade Low level of ownership [40%] No mortgage interest tax relief Israel and USA strong commercial investors • Germans may now invest more outside EU Greece • Housing prices remain low • New housing investment remains strong • Low interest rates • Strong economy • High ownership rate [74%] • 1.75 million second homes [highest in Europe] • Heavy migration from rural to urban living Hungary • Highest home ownership in Europe [90%] • Average dwelling size 75m² • Quality housing is hard to find • Only 71% meet official comfort standards • Maintenance is a major issue • High interest rates • No more state subsidy Ireland • Rise in housing prices is subsiding • High level of investing in rental property • Housing prices near peak • Mortgage interest tax relief with caps • New housing units down from 2004 • New construction tripled in 10 years from 1994-2004 Italy • Smallest EU housing stock at 30% • Financial and economic conditions shifted to ownership • Tax breaks favor ownership • New rental laws make private renting a poor investment • Low interest rates • Mortgage interest tax relief Netherlands • • • • • • • Economy at a standstill Low interest rate sustains high demand Long-term, fixed rate mortgages Housing supply is tight Home ownership at 54% Income tax deducible mortgage interest No capital gains tax, high transaction costs Poland • • • • • Private ownership at 55% 1.5 million unit housing shortage Average floor area 67m² Poor building quality 7.5 million homes need extensive repairs • Interest rate caps imposed in 2002 • Mortgage market is small Portugal • • • • • • Low interest rates Growing consumer confidence Property tax of 0-6% Average size of new dwelling is 83m² Mortgage interest tax relief is small No capital gains exemption Spain • • • • • • Housing boom beginning to slow Price growth 15.7% from 17.1% 100,000 mortgage transactions/month Easy borrowing, low interest rates Loan terms 25-30 years Mortgage interest tax relief with exceptions • Capital gains exemption Sweden • • • • • • • • Strong economy Low interest rates Affordability becoming a problem Huge decline in housing subsidies Land supply at a premium 30% mortgage interest tax relief 15% capital gains tax 25% VAT tax on new housing Switzerland • • • • Interest rate increases expected Home ownership as increased to 35% Few owner benefits Fixed mortgage rates fixed for 5 years or less • Possible loss of mortgage interest deductibility by 2008 • Partial capital gains exemption United Kingdom • Interest rate hikes have slowed market • House purchase takes 3-6 months • Variable rate mortgages have no cap on rate • Interest rate changes can be made at any time • Housing quality is high, supply is low • 69% of Britons are homeowners Proposed REIT Regimes • Germany – – – – Expected January 2006 REIT would be fully tax exempt Individual investors taxed at individual rates Non-resident investors subject to German withholding tax of 25% on dividends • Issues remaining unclear – Publicly traded corporate REITs and private? – Included in investment tax law of 2003? – German corporate tax law or specific REIT tax law? Rental Rates • High front-end expense – VAT taxes – Government taxes on every level – “Keymoney” may be significant • Past 5 years increases in rents and values • Increases mark gains from unification • Strict planning and regulation of new construction Housing Costs • European home ownership very expensive • Modest 4 or 5 room single-family home in Europe exceeds $345,000 • Average home price in US $218,000 • Apartments expensive at $300+ per sq. ft. • Modest 2 bedroom unit would cost $300,000 • Prices are increasing at slower pace • Investors should consider cross-border taxes and interest deductibility, not just mortgage rate Space Availability • Major market space hard to find • “New” space virtually impossible • High concern for tradition, environment and preservation • Users locating in outer business parks and non-center high-rises • As prices rise, marginal users moving voluntarily Use of Agents • Northern Europeans use agents more • Southern Europeans use agents less • UK, Ireland, Scandanavia agentassisted transactions • More mobile economies use agent services • As economies modernize, demand will increase Eastern European Economies • Goals since fall of the Berlin Wall • Decentralize and privatize industry and agriculture • Move from heavy industry to other productive sectors • Repair the environment • Re-capitalize and modernize factories and infrastructure • Introduce free market supply and demand • Restore individual freedoms Eastern Europe Real Estate Markets • Regional developments – Democracy and free-market economics – Renewed awareness of land value – Struggle for identity and power – Guidelines for competition – Need for retail space • Continued growth and expansion of free market economies Globalization of Real Estate Trade Organizations • International Real Property Foundation – NAR and US Agency for International Development – Conduct training – Help create real estate professional associations • NAR Cooperating Agreements – 50+ nations – www.realtor.org/international – Listed in Appendix Key Point Review • Europe major source of international real estate investment • Most economies have increase in value and sales • European economy affects FDI in other countries • Eastern Europe great opportunities and high risk • Trend to increased trade group interaction Discussion Questions How To Look At a Country Objectives • Identify social, economic and political characteristics of a country that shape its potential for investment • Discuss business culture characteristics • Analyze a sample country International Market • Market knowledge helps get the listing or buyer • International transactions yield long-term business • Travel and exposure to different cultures • Knowledge necessary to: – – – – Advise outbound investors Advise outbound users Work with inbound foreign investors Network effectively In-Depth Information • • • • • Sources of capital Government structure and attitudes The economy Market landmarks Local business and social culture Do Your Homework! • Learn necessary data • Each culture different – Business – Social • Don’t try to transplant current business model to international • History, economy, customs Business Culture Overviews Austria • • • • • Punctual Great sense of humor Direct approach to negotiations Slow decision-making Classical music, opera, art and winter sport good conversation topics • Avoid money, religion, anti-Semitism, WWII Belgium • Want to know you first • Appreciate hard facts • Business cards – One side English – Other side French or Dutch • Assure client you will meet deadlines • Safe topics: cycling, soccer, food, beer, art • Avoid: Belgium history, politics, Germans Czech Republic • • • • • • Don’t use first names Maintain eye contact Speaking loudly considered impolite Remove shoes entering a home Joined NATO in 1999 and EU in 2004 2.7 million internet users in 2003 Denmark • Punctuality extremely important • Write day, month, year [27.05.05] • Freely express opinions, very tolerant and pro environment • Consider compliments inappropriate • Business stability important • July/August vacation months Finland • 76% of Finland is forests and woodlands • Population is 93.4% Finns • Excel in high tech exports • Don’t talk with hands in pockets • Punctuality important • Less than 60% own primary residence France • • • • • • • • Make appointments Spirited debates common Avoid politics or personal inquiries Learn basic French phrases Want firm personal relationship Logical, analytical, don’t like hard sell Will examine every detail Reluctant to take risks Germany • • • • • • • Make appointments and be punctual Informal dress unless in banking Avoid conspicuous wealth Compliments not used Avoid: personal questions Avoid: WWII Good: Soccer, travel, beer Greece • Often expressive in greetings • Indicate ‘no’ by tilting head backward or side to side • Indicate ‘yes’ by nodding head forward slightly • Impolite to leave table before everyone is finished • Capitalistic economy • Tourism provides 15% of GDP Hungary • • • • Greet with firm handshake Woman extends her hand first Hands kept above table when eating Impolite to leave food on plate Ireland • • • • • • • Family top priority Casual attitude about time Prefer direct eye contact Proud of their history Like to haggle/negotiate Transactions move slowly Avoid: Catholic church Italy • Need well-connected contact for introductions • Punctuality not high priority • May need translator, translate business card • Use titles and degrees, slow decision-making Netherlands Punctuality essential Value efficiency Contacts vital Avoid boasting • No need to translate business card • Like concrete facts, statistics, hard data • Respect honesty and straightforwardness Norway • Joined NATO in 1949 • Rejected joining EU in 1972 and 1994 • $0 external debt • Water pollution/acid rain damaging forests and lakes • Oil and gas production account for 1/3 of exports • Government is privatizing Poland • • • • • • • • Proud home of John Paul II and Lech Walesa Very rich culture and history Member of NATO and EU Democratic, fast developing Population 96.7% Polish 8.9 million internet users in 2003 Punctuality important Be patient. Decision making is slow Portugal • Lunch is key business activity • Punctuality not high priority • Do no like confrontation • Good: home, family, soccer • Avoid: religion, money • Short term outcome more important than long term benefits • No respect for deadlines • Signed document 1st step in negotiation • Don’t put all cards on table • Truthfulness flexible in negotiations Russia • • • • • • • Appointments hard to get Be punctual Client may be late Affection for children Titles are important Translate business card Do not use plastic cups Slovakia • • • • • • • • Joined NATO and EU in 2004 Air pollution presents human health risks Acid rain is damaging forests Landlocked country Population is 85.8% Slovak Business-friendly 19% flat tax Privatization nearly complete Internet users in 2003 were 1,375,800 Spain • • • • • • • • One of least punctual countries in Europe Modesty valued above assertiveness Good: travel, Spanish wines, traditions Avoid: Franco, religion, Gibraltar, WWII Business cards English/Spanish Personal contacts important Be patient/decision-making slow Feelings more important than objective facts Sweden • • • • • • • • • Never be late Observe vacation times Accept silence with ease Signed contract, that’s it Avoid: compliments, high cost of living Good: travel, hockey and nature Do not send mums, white lilies, red roses, orchids No need to translate business card Short, concise, easy to understand information Switzerland • • • • Meetings by appointment No pretentious displays Polite conversationalists Good: world affairs and winter sports • Avoid: neutrality, money, banks, WWI, WWII • Business serious, no humor • • • • • Extremely punctual Very private Good listeners Be clear and concise Keep accurate records for negotiating… they will! United Kingdom • • • • • • Common law legal system Punctuality appreciated Quality, conservative dress Tolerant, open-minded, reserved Multi-cultural, multi-racial society Avoid: Northern Ireland, monarch, EU, euro. Middle East, personal questions • Blunt/direct, masters of understatement Country Assessment Model Geography Culture Real Estate Model Components Government People Other Factors Infrastructure Economy Sample Analysis of a Country Profile Netherlands Group Exercise Conversion Exercise 4-39 Convert 150 m² to square feet 10.7639 = __________ 1614.59 150 X __________ Conversion Exercises4-39 Convert euros to US$ Conversion factor 1€ = 1.19 US$ €14 X __________ 1.19 = __________ 16.66 US$ 1.19 = __________ 17.26 US$ €14.5 X __________ 1.19 19.64 US$ €16.5 X __________= __________ 1.19 = __________ 15.47 US$ €13 X __________ 1.19 = __________ 29.75 US$ €25 X __________ 1.19 = __________ 119.00 US$ €100 X __________