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Crop Metrics Building an Online System for Crop Information Rolfe Antonowitsch and Crop Metrics Team AAFC-Science and Technology Branch 1 Why Crop Metrics • AAFC and partner organizations (Statistics Canada, Environment Canada, provincial agencies) produce a number of data sets that all provide crucial information on the status and potential of crops during a growing season • A Crop Metrics application would provide a mechanism to view this key information in a single report, using the latest data sets and incorporating the best science available. 2 Who are the clients for Crop Metrics? 1. Policy and Programs groups within AAFC-Risks and response planning. 2. Markets Industry Services Branch (MISB)-Timely reporting of Canadian crop inventories. 3. Provinces 4. Commodity Brokers and Grain Transportersadvanced planning/competetiveness. 5. Producer Groups/Producers-Information for inseason decisions/plans. 6. Research and other users- web enabled products will enhance further reanalysis and use in other products. 3 What Data Sets Can Support Crop Metrics? 4 • Main Inputs: NDVI and climate indices. • Reporting time: Middle of July, August September and October. • Current forecasted crops: spring wheat, durum wheat, canola, barley, oats, corn for grain and soybean. Empirical Cumulative density function Canadian Crop Yield Forecasts Best 90 Percentile Median Worst 10 Percentile Forecasted Yield (kg/ha) 5 Current Data: Climate Data • • • • Around 900 stations cross Canada Around 450 stations in crop lands Distributed unevenly Basic inputs : Tmax, Tmin and precipitation 6 Growing Degree Day Crop Accumulated Heat Metrics (July 15, 2015) CAR 4841 Date 7 Accumulative Precipitation (mm) Accumulated Precipitation Metrics (July 15, 2015) CAR 4841 Date 8 Stress Index Metrics (July 15, 2015) CAR 4841 Stress Index Extreme Stress Severe Stress Light Stress No Stress Date 9 Current Data Sets: Satellite Crop Condition Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies show areas where vegetation is less vibrant than compared to the historical average Anomalies can occur because of differences in timing of seeding, vegetation stress, large scale changes in crop mixture 10 • AAFC produces this data weekly through the growing season using the MODIS satellite • Data are delivered through Statistics Canada Crop Condition Assessment Program (CCAP) NDVI NDVI Metrics (July 15, 2015) CAR 4841 Date 11 Current Data Sets: Satellite Soil Moisture Weekly, biweekly and monthly soil moisture and soil moisture difference from long term trend (anomalies) Sensitive to surface soil moisture layer, but gives an indication of overall moisture availability Persistence of excess wetness or dryness at the surface can be an indicator of subsurface conditions 12 Current Data Sets: Risks North American Drought Monitor • Monthly Assessment of Drought Severity Climate Production Risk Committee Reports • Summarize information nationally on key risks to agriculture in each region Agroclimate Impact Reporter (AIR) • Maps based on surveys of volunteer reporters • Livestock feed shortages, excess moisture, impact of below normal temperatures 13 Current Data Sets: Weather Forecasts (sample from August 2014) 14 Current Data Sets: Market Information Chicago Board of Trade Wheat Futures 15 Potential Data Sets: Satellite Evaporative Stress Legend Evaporative Stress Index (12 weeks) 3 High Stress -3 Low Stress • Weekly measurement using thermal satellite data that shows areas were plant water demand is higher than what is available (red areas) • Produced by the US Department of Agriculture at 10km spatial resolution 16 Potential Data Sets: Pest Forecasts Computer Centre for Agricultural Pest Forecasting (CIPRA) • Models risk of pests and disease based on climate station information for a number of key crops in Canada 17 What Would a Crop Metrics Application Provide? Integration of information that can be used for decision support by regional experts 18 Crop Metrics Application Crop Metrics Application Select a Crop Type Spring Wheat Canola Barley Corn Soybean Select Point or Draw Area of Interest Metric Imperial - Still in development, the Crop Metrics Application will make use of AAFC online mapping capabilities to allow users to select and area and a commodity type to explore - Coloured map shoes area with the highest probability of finding the selected crop (in this case, spring wheat) 19 Crop Metrics Report for AOI Crop Metrics Application Forecast Yield Potential Worst Case: P10: 2.3 tonnes/hectare Most likely: P50: 2.8 tonnes/hectare Best Case: P90: 3.4 tonnes/hectare Estimated Current Conditions (to current date) Accumulated Heat Units : Favourable Accumulated Precipitation : Poor Satellite Vegetation Condition– Poor Climate Stress Index – Severe Stress Growth Stage – Ahead Forecast Conditions Precipitation: 50% Probability of Precipitation Temperature: Above Normal Temperatures Select a Crop Type Spring Wheat Canola Barley Corn Soybean Risks Risk Factor 1 – Extreme Drought, worsening Risk Factor 2 – Record Low Precipitation Risk Factor 3 – Localized water shortages, Below Average Feed Production Select Point Draw Area of Interest (AOI) or use Use Predetermined Areas (ie townships) This is still a work in progress – what information is most important to include? Market Commodity Price: High: $328.55/tonne Average: $288.77 /tonne Low: $224.00 /tonne Overall Outlook: Below Average 20 Crop Yield Metrics (July 15, 2015) CAR 4841 Last 5-year mean Yield (Bu/Ac) Long term mean July 2015 forecasted P90, P50 and P10 Year 21 Our Next Steps 1. Calibrating Crop Metrics typology with clients (starting with internal clients). 2. Exploring alternative methods od delivering the metrics products apart from the web (Canada.ca portal). 3. Integrating/confirming data sources from satellite platforms, crow sourced avenues, GPS, pest forecasts etc. 4. Developing synergies with other projects with similar/related objectives (e.g. sustainability metrics). 5. Present proof of concept to AAFC management in Year 3 to decide on operational details. 22