Download Security Scenarios And The Global Economy

NS4301
Summer 2015
Niger
Overview
• History of Niger’s Economy
• Current Economic Situation
• Governance
• Economic Prospects
History of the Nigerien Economy
Colonial Rule 1890-1960
• The Berlin Conference (1884): European
powers, together with the United States, defined
their spheres of influence on the coasts of Africa
• French considered Niger important due to
• Border with Algeria
• Border with Nigeria
• Uranium deposits
• 1958 referendum for ‘Communaute’
• Yes vote – relative autonomy under a commonwealth
• No vote – immediate independence but no foreign aid
Institutional Roots
• The Sawaba Party, a leftist party led by Djibo
Bakary, pushed for a ‘NO’ vote in Niger
• 21% voted ‘NO’ and lost the referendum
• But intimidation and coercion were common
• French military occupied many parts of Niger
• Leaflet drops of pro-France propaganda
• ‘No’ voters were frequently disenfranchised
• Low turnout vote (24%) suspiciously noted in Sawaba
concentrations
Transition of Power
• Method of repression was the important legacy
imparted on Niger
• RDA party takes power after referendum
• Sawaba stages a guerilla rebellion in 1960-61
and fails
• Niger ruled for next 15 years under a
dictatorship
Post Independence 1963-78
• Average per Capita GDP growth - 0.8% annually
• 6% of people lived in urban areas
• Agricultural sector contributed about 60% of
economy
• Subsistence crops, livestock, forestry, fishery
• Peanuts
• Administrative sector was less than 8%
• Major drought from 1968-74 limited growth
• Inflation stemmed by controlled gov’t spending
Mining Boom 1979-82
• Mining doubled by percent of economy to 13%
Uranium production began in 1971
• Increased GDP growth to 5.1% per year
• Uranium had a positive effect on rest of economy
• Exports grew 28%
• Manufacturing was 20% of economy compared to
40% and 8% for agriculture and administration
respectively
• Capital growth on infrastructure accelerated
• Budget deficit rose from 3.2% to 10.8%
• Inflation jumped to about 25%
Collapse 1983-92
• World uranium market collapses
• Real GDP declined by 0.2% per year
• Persistent droughts
• Trade imbalances
• Manufacturing and commerce drop below 13% of
economy and agriculture remains at about 40%
• Foreign investment reduced
• Government reduced external account deficits
• At the expense of public goods
Current Economic Situation
Current Economic Situation
Economic Development
- sectors of the GDP
- GDP/development compared to other ECOWAS states
Versus
Human Development
- population / health / education
ECOWAS
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Benin
Burkina Faso
Cape Verde
Gambia
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Côte d’Ivoire
Liberia
Mali
Niger
Nigeria
Senegal
Sierra Leone
Togo
Products
Agriculture:
Cowpeas, Cotton, Peanuts, Millet, Sorghum,
Cassava; Cattle, Sheep, Goats, Camels,
Donkeys, Horses, Poultry
Industries:
Uranium, Mining, Petroleum, Cement, Brick,
Soap, Textiles, Food Production; Chemicals,
Slaughterhouses
Share of GDP by Sector
18.00
16.00
14.00
12.00
Billions
Services
10.00
Industry
8.00
6.00
Agriculture
4.00
2.00
0.00
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Import / Exports
6.70% 12.90%
Nigeria
Exports: uranium ore,
livestock, cowpeas, onions
($1.652 Billion)
France
China
4.8%
Belgium
India
Togo
Côte d'Ivoire
54.20%
Other
4.1%
Nigeria
French Polynesia
26.20%
South
Korea
Ghana
13.7%
5.3%
5.6%
11.6%
8.6%
9.1%
Imports: foodstuffs,
machinery, vehicles and
parts, petroleum, cereals
($2.269 Billion)
2014
2011
2008
2005
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
Niger
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
1960
Niger Per Capita Income
ECOWAS Average
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
ECOWAS Change in GDP/PPP/Per
Capita by Year
3500
Benin
Burkina Faso
3000
Cote d'Ivoire
2500
Ghana
Guinea
2000
Guinea-Bissau
Liberia
1500
Mali
1000
Niger
Nigeria
500
Senegal
Sierra Leone
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Togo
Per Capita Income
*Excluding Top 4 Countries
Niger
*ECOWAS Average
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
2014
2011
2008
2005
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
1960
0
Income Equality
Niger - 1995
Niger - 2011
Equality
3rd 20%
2nd 20%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Top 20%
4th 20%
Bottom 20%
Population
18,000,000
65+ (Female)
Total: 18,045,729
16,000,000
65+ (Male)
14,000,000
55 to 64 (Female)
55 to 64 (Male)
12,000,000
25 to 54 (Female)
10,000,000
8,000,000
25 to 54 (Male)
15 to 24 (Female)
15 to 24 (Male)
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
0 to 14 (Female)
65+ Years: 2.64%
55-64 Years: 18.61%
25-54 Years: 25.92%
15-24 Years: 18.61%
0-14 Years: 49.57%
Labor Force: 5.8 Million
- Agriculture:
90%
- Industry: 6%
- Services: 4%
0 to 14 (Male)
Unemployment: 5.1%
Below Poverty Line:
63%
Population Growth Rates
Niger
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
ECOWAS Average
Population Growth Rates
60
50
40
Birth Rate
Average Birth Rate
Death Rate
Average Death Rate
30
20
10
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
Infant Mortality Rates
Niger
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
ECOWAS Average
Life Expectancy
Nigeria
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
40
ECOWAS Average
Access to Health Care
Country
Benin
Cape Verde
The Gambia
Cote d'Ivoire
Burkina Faso
Ghana
Guinea
Liberia
Mali
Guinea-Bissau
Niger
Nigeria
Senegal
Sierra Leone
Togo
Physicians per
10,000 People
.6
5.7
1.1
1.4
.6
.9
1
.1
.5
.5
.2
4
.6
.2
.5
Mean Years of Schooling
Niger
ECOWAS Average
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1980 1985 1990 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
** Adult Literacy Rate (2012): 28.7%
Limits to Economic Development
Weakness and Volatility
-Weak institutional framework
-Limited infrastructure
-Weak human capital (health, primary education,
higher education, continuing education)
- Narrow and non-competitive goods / weak
industrial sector / an undeveloped financial market /
absence of technological innovations
Governance
Human Development Index – 187/187
Source: UNDP
Health
Life Expectancy at Birth
58.41
Education
Mean Years of Schooling
1.44
Poverty
Pop. In Multidimensional Poverty (%)
89.81
C.A.R.
Niger
2015 Index of Economic Freedom
Source: The Heritage Foundation
Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Niger
Source: The Heritage Foundation
Niger: Index of Economic Freedom
Overall Score: 54.6
World Rank: 127
Source: The Heritage Foundation
Property Freedom
Source: The Heritage Foundation
Freedom from Corruption
Transparency International ranks Niger:
103rd worldwide, 18th in SSA
Government Spending
Fiscal Freedom
Source: The Heritage Foundation
Business Freedom
Labor Freedom
Monetary Freedom
Trade Freedom
Investment Freedom
Financial Freedom
Ease of Doing Business
Source: World Bank Group
Freedom House
Reporters without Borders
2015 Scores
Status
Partly Free
__________________
Freedom Rating
(1=Best, 7=Worst)
3.5
__________________
Civil Liberties
(1=Best, 7=Worst)
4
_________________
Political Rights
(1=Best, 7=Worst)
3
47/180 in 2015
World Press
Freedom Index
Nigerien Prosperity
Source: Legatum Prosperity Index
Nigerien Prosperity
Source: Legatum Prosperity Index
Nigerien Prosperity
Source: Legatum Prosperity Index
Nigerien Prosperity
Source: Legatum Prosperity Index
Niger’s Economic Prospects
Economic Forecast-Assessment
Medium to Long-Term
IMF - May 2015 Report
• Favorable Outlook
• Projected Real GDP: 6-7% avg (2016-18)
o Extractive Industry Sector Expansion
• Projected Inflation: Contained below 2%
• Natural Resource Sector Prospects
o Oil Production
o Gold and Uranium
World Bank
• Need to keep an eye on debt sustainability
• Avoid overdependence on extractive revenues
Obstacles and Challenges
Revisited
• Lack of Economic Diversification
o Food Insecurity
• Population Concerns
• Poor Infrastructure
o Energy
• Poor Business Climate
o Economic Freedom
• Weak Financial Sector
World Bank:
Obstacles to
Doing Business
Recommended Solutions
• The Need for Improved Governance
o Address Corruption
o Address Lack of Transparency
World Bank:
Govt
Effectiveness
World Bank:
Corruption
• The Need for Sound Public Investment
• Modernize Existing Infrastructure
o Energy Sector
• Implement “Business-friendly” Legislation
• Seek Economic Diversification
• Food Security
Recommended Solutions
• The Need for Improved Governance
o Address Corruption
o Address Lack of Transparency
• The Need for Sound Public Investment
• Modernize Existing Infrastructure
o Energy Sector
• Implement “Business-friendly” Legislation
• Seek Economic Diversification
• Food Security
Recommended Solutions
• The Need for Improved Governance
o Address Corruption
o Address Lack of Transparency
• The Need for Sound Public Investment
• Modernize Existing Infrastructure
o Energy Sector
• Implement “Business-friendly” Legislation
• Seek Economic Diversification
• Food Security
Recommended Solutions
• The Need for Improved Governance
o Address Corruption
o Address Lack of Transparency
• The Need for Sound Public Investment
• Modernize Existing Infrastructure
o Energy Sector
• Implement “Business-friendly” Legislation
• Seek Economic Diversification
• Food Security
Recommended Solutions
• The Need for Improved Governance
o Address Corruption
o Address Lack of Transparency
• The Need for Sound Public Investment
• Modernize Existing Infrastructure
o Energy Sector
• Implement “Business-friendly” Legislation
• Seek Economic Diversification
• Food Security
Summary
• History of Niger’s Economy
• Current Economic Situation
• Governance
• Economic Prospects
Questions?
Back-Up Slides
Obstacles: Doing Business
Back
Corruption
Back
Source: World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators
Government Effectiveness
Back
Source: World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators
References
• BBC, Niger County Profile – Overview, 2015.
• Michigan State University – GlobalEdge
• Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada
Centre for Intercultural Learning.
• CIA World Fact Book. 2015.
• “DECOLONIZATION BY REFERENDUM” in Journal of
African History. 2009.
• IMF Working Paper: Economic Growth and Total
Factor of Productivity in Niger. 2006.
• IMF: Niger Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper. 2013.