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The Evolving Scenario in the Telecommunications Sector Impact on Nature of Disputes and Response Mechanisms TDSAT INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON DISPUTE RESOLUTION 29-30 October 2004 New Delhi, India Susan Schorr, Regulatory Officer Telecommunication Development Bureau (BDT) The Telecommunications Sector has become the ICT Sector • Plain old telecom services being replaced by bouquet of voice, data, broadband Internet and multimedia services • Copper networks refitted as ADSL broadband networks • CATV compete head-to-head with copper • Voice traffic shifting to VoIP • Wireless broadband key to developing countries Revenues from public switched telephone, cellular mobile and other telecommunication networks worldwide, 1993-2003 and 2003, in current USD billions Data and other, 19.1% Mobile, 37.7% Domestic fixed telephone, 38.9% Int'l fixed, telephone, 4.4% Global service revenues, 2003 Total = US$1.1 trillion Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database Ownership Status of the Incumbent Operator from 1991 to 2004 Countries 160 Private Privatization by region, percentage, mid 2004 State-owned 140 120 100 Arab States 43% Africa 42% 80 60 40 20 Asia-Pacific 0 1991 1993 1995 1999 2001 53% 2004 Americas Source: ITU World Telecommunication Regulatory Database 74% 102 million broadband subscribers by end 2003 Broadband s ubs cribe rs w orldw ide , million 120 100 80 60 15.3% Broadband subscribers as a percentage of Internet users 11.2% 7.33% 40 20 0.56% 1.25% 3.96% 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Source: ITU Internet Reports 2004 “The Portable Internet” 2003 Broadband networks “While most current broadband networks are based on copper lines, fibre optic and wireless technologies are the broadband of the future” • • • • • Phone lines Coaxial cables Fibre optic cables Power lines Wireless Other broadband, 5.5% Cable m odem , 37.0% DSL, 57.5% Broadband subscribers w ordw ide, 2003. Total = 102 million Other” broadband includes fibre to the home, WiFi, Metro Ethernet, Fixed Wireless Access, Satellite, etc. Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database Broadband’s fast growth “Broadband access has quietly grown faster than mobile phones in their early stages” Broadband and mobile growth, millions, world 70 60 Broadband (1999-2002) 50 Mobile (1989-1992) 40 30 20 10 0 Year 1 Year 2 Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database Year 3 Year 4 ICT Sector Increasingly Dominated by Wireless Technologies • ICT sector dominated by mobile cellular • Advent of 3G services • New fixed wireless broadband technologies like Wi-Fi and Wi-MAX on the rise All these changes require a new regulatory framework ICT Users Worldwide 1991–mid 2004 Telephone and Internet Users World, Millions 2'000 1'500 Fixed-line 1'000 Internet users 500 M obile 0 1991 94 97 2000 Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database 03 Cellular mobile users mid-2004 and mobile users added 2000-mid 2004; number of Internet users 2003, and new Internet users added, 2000-2003 1.48 billion 739 million Developing 332 million 691 million 56.0% 78.5% 39.1% Developing 66.2% 44.0% Developed 21.5% 60.9% Mid-2004 Installed base Cellular mobile subscribers New subscribers added, 2000-Mid 2004 Developed 33.8% 2003 Installed base Internet Users Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database New users added, 20002003 Level of competition in selected services world, 2004 Monopoly Competition 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Basic services Leased lines Wireless local loop Cellular Source: ITU World Telecommunication Regulatory Database Cable TV VSAT ISPs Licensing under the new regime Malaysia Licensing Category Individual Licence Class Licence Exempt/Unlicensed Licenses under the old regime 1. Domestic Network Operators 2. International Network Operators 3.Cellular/Personal Communications Services 4. CT2 / Telepoint Service 5. Financial Electronic Transaction 6. Paging Services 7. Trunk Radio System 8. Radio Maritime Service 9. Mobile Satellite Services 10. Telecommunications Satellite Network Services 11. Very Small Aperture Terminal Services 12. Radio Location Services 13. Satellite Broadcasting Services 14. Mobile Data Services 15. Mobile Radiocommunications Services 16. Private Information Services 17. Public Electronic Data Interchange Services 18. Value Added Network Data Services 19. Value Added Services (Premium Rate) 20. Telecommunications Personal Services 21. Public Internet Kiosk Services 22. Internet Service Providers 23. Power Line Carriers 24. Payphone & Public Facsimile Services 25. Wireless Video Communications Network 26. Private Telecommunications Network 27. Common Subscriber Directory Services 28. Community Interactive Multimedia Services 29. Amateur Satellite 30. Broadcasters - Radio 31. Broadcasters – Television Network Provider Facility Earth Stations Fixed links and cables Public payphone facilities Radiocommunications transmitters and links Satellite hubs Satellite control station Space station Submarine cable landing centre Switching centre Towers, poles, ducts and pits used in conjunction with other network facilities Niche or limited purpose network facilities Broadcasting and production studios Incidental network facilities Private network facilities Network Provider Service Bandwidth services Broadcasting distribution services Cellular mobile services Access applications service Space service Niche customer access Niche connection service Incidental network services LAN services Private network services Router Internetworking Applications Provider Service PSTN Public cellular services IP telephony Public payphone service Public switched data service Audiotext hosting services provided on an opt-in basis Directory services Internet access services Messaging services Electronic transaction service Interactive transaction service Networked advertising boards and Cineplex Web hosting or client server Content Applications Service Provider Satellite broadcasting subscription Broadcasting Terrestrial free to air TV Terrestrial radio broadcasting Not issued Internet content applications services Other Regulatory Trends • Freeing spectrum for use by ever growing numbers of wireless devices • Authorizing greater use of VoIP • Considering regulation of VoIP • Combating Spam Impact of Technological, Market and Regulatory Developments on Disputes • Embracing technology and service neutral licenses should reduce disputes about market entry into specific markets • Technology neutral regulation = greater liberalization • Further liberalization creates new market players and grants rights to these new players that did not exist before. • Granting of new rights inevitably leads to new disputes as new interests clash with traditional ones Spam Growth Spam as a percentage of all email worldwide (MessageLabs) 80 70 60 Spam as a percentage of all email worldwide (Brightmail) 50 40 65% 48% 30 20 10 32% 0 Nov Dec Jan Feb Apr Mar May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct '03 '04 '04 8% June '01 June '02 June '03 June '04 Trends: National Regulatory Authorities Worldwide and Percentage per Region Regulatory agencies, world (cumulative) 132 117 106 Percentage of regulators in each region 94 86 Americas 88% 75 Africa 56 81% 43 27 14 31 34 Europe 48% 04 20 01 20 00 20 99 19 98 19 97 19 96 19 95 19 94 19 93 19 92 19 91 19 90 Arab States 19 73% 17 Asia-Pacific Source: ITU World Telecommunication Regulatory Database. 50% Mechanisms to resolve interconnection disputes, sanctions power Mechanisms used for resolution of interconnection disputes Courts/litigation Administrative adjudication Expert determination Mediation/conciliation Arbitration 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Percent of countries using mechanism Percentage of countries where the Regulatory Authority can impose the specified sanctions/penalties Monetary fines Licence revocation Licence suspension Modification of licence Additional licence obligations Other sanctions 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Percentage of countries 60% 70% 80% 60% 70% Overturning decision of national regulatory authority Which entities can overturn the decisions of the National Regulatory Authority, by percentage of countries, world The Sector Ministry The Judiciary Sector complaint body Competition Authority No one Other 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Percentage of Regulators worldwide responsible for consumer issues Promoting consumer participation Representing consumers 76% 59% Informing consumers of their rights Provision of comparative tariff information Consumer complaints 82% 59% 87% http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/treg/ Thank You! Susan Schorr Regulatory Officer ITU/BDT/Regulatory Reform Unit +41 22 730 5638 [email protected]