Download Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine

Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System
Khomenko Inna
Odessa State Environmental University
Transportation not only affects climate, but are strongly influenced with the climate
conditions, and key hubs of the transportation sector are cities.
Transportation professionals are keenly aware of the effects of weather on system
performance. Transportation infrastructure was designed for typical weather patterns,
reflecting local climate and incorporating assumptions about a reasonable range of
temperatures and precipitation levels.
Climate change will affect transportation primarily through increases in several types
of weather and climate extremes, such as very hot days; intense precipitation events;
intense hurricanes; drought; and rising sea levels, coupled with storm surges and land
subsidence. The impacts will vary by mode of transportation and region of the
country, but they will be widespread and costly in both human and economic terms
and will require significant changes in the planning, design, construction, operation,
and maintenance of transportation systems.
Owing to development of emission scenarios transportation decision makers have an
opportunity now to prepare for projected climate changes.
Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System
Khomenko Inna
Odessa State Environmental University
In the study impact of climate change on
operation of road transport along two
highways are analyzed on the basis of RCP
4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios.
Data contains series of daily mean and
maximum temperature, daily liquid (or
mixed) and solid precipitation, daily mean
relative humidity and daily mean and
maximum wind speed, obtained for the
period of 2011 to 2050.
Figure: Radiative Forcing of the Representative Concentration
Pathways. From van Vuuren et al (2011) The Representative
Concentration Pathways: An Overview. Climatic Change, 109
(1-2), 5-31. . The light grey area captures 98% of the range in
previous IAM scenarios, and dark grey represents 90% of the
range.
Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System
Khomenko Inna
Odessa State Environmental University
Figure: ‘‘Odesa–Voznesensk–Dnipropetrovsk–Kharkiv’’ highway
Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System
Khomenko Inna
Odessa State Environmental University
Figure: ‘‘Vinnytsia–Khmelnytskyi–Ternopil–Stryi–Uzhhorod’’ highway
Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System
Khomenko Inna
Odessa State Environmental University
Changes in mean air temperatures along ‘‘Odesa–Voznesensk–Dnipropetrovsk–Kharkiv’’ highway
For both scenarios it is revealed that in Odesa city significant increase of average yearly
temperature by 2-3С is observed, in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk slight growth of
temperatures takes place and in Voznesensk, on the contrary, decrease in temperatures occurs.
Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System
Khomenko Inna
Odessa State Environmental University
Changes in mean air temperatures along ‘‘Vinnytsia–Khmelnytskyi–Ternopil–Stryi–Uzhhorod’’ highway
For both scenarios there is considerable decrease in temperatures in Uzhhorod and Stryi cities
(both cities are situated in a mountainous area); in other cities we can see faint growth in
temperatures (by 0,5C).
Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System
Khomenko Inna
Odessa State Environmental University
Changes in mean air temperatures along ‘‘Odesa–Voznesensk–Dnipropetrovsk–Kharkiv’’ highway
99-th percentile
1-st percentile
99-th percentile
1-st percentile
Changes in daily mean air temperatures along ‘‘Vinnytsia–Khmelnytskyi–Ternopil–Stryi–Uzhhorod’’ highway
99-th percentile
99-th percentile
1-st percentile
1-st percentile
Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System
Khomenko Inna
Odessa State Environmental University
Change in mean air temperatures along ‘‘Odesa–Voznesensk–Dnipropetrovsk–Kharkiv’’ highway
Change in mean air temperatures along ‘‘Vinnytsia–Khmelnytskyi–Ternopil–Stryi–Uzhhorod’’ highway
Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System
Khomenko Inna
Odessa State Environmental University
Changes in extremum air temperatures along ‘‘Odesa–Voznesensk–Dnipropetrovsk–Kharkiv’’ highway
Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System
Khomenko Inna
Odessa State Environmental University
Changes in extremum air temperatures along ‘‘Vinnytsia–Khmelnytskyi–Ternopil–Stryi–Uzhhorod’’ highway
Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System
Khomenko Inna
Odessa State Environmental University
Change in daily mean precipitation along ‘‘Odesa–Voznesensk–Dnipropetrovsk–Kharkiv’’ highway
ХІ-ІІІ
ІV-X
year
ХІ-ІІІ
ІV-X
year
Odesa
1961-1990 RCP4.5
44
44
56
56
100
87
Dnipropetrovsk
1961-1990 RCP4.5
41
44
59
56
100
92
RCP4.5
45
55
90
RCP4.5
46
54
90
ХІ-ІІІ
ІV-X
year
ХІ-ІІІ
ІV-X
year
Voznesensk
1961-1990 RCP4.5
36
42
64
58
100
84
Kharkiv
1961-1990 RCP4.5
37
43
63
57
100
91
RCP4.5
40
60
86
RCP4.5
44
56
90
Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System
Khomenko Inna
Odessa State Environmental University
Change in daily mean precipitation along ‘‘Vinnytsia–Khmelnytskyi–Ternopil–Stryi–Uzhhorod’’ highway
ХІ-ІІІ
ІV-X
year
ХІ-ІІІ
ІV-X
year
Uzhhorod
1961-1990 RCP4.5
38
42
62
58
100
134
Ternopil
1961-1990 RCP4.5
29
28
71
72
100
99
ХІ-ІІІ
ІV-X
year
RCP4.5
42
58
136
ХІ-ІІІ
ІV-X
year
RCP4.5
29
ХІ-ІІІ
71
ІV-X
100
year
Vinnytsia
1961-1990 RCP4.5
31
37
69
63
100
85
Stryi
1961-1990 RCP4.5
26
29
74
71
100
80
Khmelnytskyi
1961-1990 RCP4.5
29
31
71
69
100
89
RCP4.5
29
71
92
RCP4.5
29
71
82
RCP4.5
31
69
91
Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System
Khomenko Inna
Odessa State Environmental University
Changes in number of days with events for 1961-1990 and 2021-2050 periods
for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios along ‘‘Odesa–Voznesensk–Dnipropetrovsk–Kharkiv’’ highway
FP – freezing precipitation
ICG – ice-covered ground (refreezing of melted snow on the road)
ICG with V≥10m/s – ice-covered ground with wind speed ≥10m/s
SSC – ice and snow slippery coat
SWG – slippery wet ground
No data
Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System
Khomenko Inna
Odessa State Environmental University
Changes in number of days with events for 1961-1990 and 2021-2050 periods for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
scenarios along ‘‘Vinnytsia–Khmelnytskyi–Ternopil–Stryi–Uzhhorod’’ highway
FP – freezing precipitation
ICG – ice-covered ground (refreezing of melted snow on the road)
ICG with V≥10m/s – ice-covered ground with wind speed ≥10m/s
SSC – ice and snow slippery coat
SWG – slippery wet ground
No data
Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System
Khomenko Inna
Odessa State Environmental University
Change in daily mean and maximum wind speeds along ‘‘Odesa–Voznesensk–Dnipropetrovsk–Kharkiv’’ highway
Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System
Khomenko Inna
Odessa State Environmental University
Change in daily mean and maximum wind speeds along ‘‘Vinnytsia–Khmelnytskyi–Ternopil–Stryi–Uzhhorod’’ highway