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To: Delegates From: Nicolas Maduro Re: Drug Policy Date: December 2015 ______________________________________________________________________________ Venezuela Memo Outline 1. Introduction: Due to ineffective government control of certain border regions and its strategic geographic location, Venezuela operates as a key trafficking country in the international drug trade. Narcotics originating from Colombia often move through rural regions, from which they are transported globally. Allegations against high Venezuelan officials in both government and security forces suggest strong ties with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), a powerful Marxist guerilla group driving the Latin American drug trade. In addition to substantial profits, relations are further incentivized by shared Bolivarian ideology however a novel Colombian-FARC peace accord may affect trafficking unpredictably. Nevertheless, an ardently dissatisfied public challenges the status quo, where officials must decide to either nationally confront illegal activities and or covertly protect their interests. In either case, the selected approach will have important implications for Venezuela’s political trajectory and economic strife that has ensued since the collapse of oil prices in 2014. 2. Status Quo a. Geography: A porous 2,200km border dividing Colombia and Venezuela allows for vast drug transport to poorer, loosely monitored regions. In states like Apure or Zulia, civilians have learned to coexist (albeit under intimidation) with the FARC, who exercise de facto local control, conducting global airlifts and shipments of drugs like cocaine, marijuana, and heroin. Venezuela’s long Caribbean coastline and strategic position links Colombia to other drug transit points like Puerto Rico, Honduras, or Trinidad renders the path reliable and established. b. Government Policy: Ties with official Venezuelan positions foster a FARC tolerant atmosphere, enabling trafficking activity. Prior allegations accusing top government officials of smuggling cocaine and branches of the military like the Cartel de los Soles of exchanging arms for drugs are some examples of these relations. Especially in the current economic devastation, the lucrative nature of this trade makes it extremely appealing to those capable of profiting. Upon severing ties with the DEA in 2005, the United States has repeatedly stated that Venezuela “is not doing enough to stop drug trafficking in the American continent,” despite opposing Venezuelan claims. c. Politics and Ideology: The political doctrines of Bolivarianism and Chavism have intimately linked the FARC and Venezuelan government. Accordingly, FARC activity in Venezuela “increased exponentially after Hugo Chavez came to power in 1999, and after the rebels lost their government granted safe haven [in Colombia] in 2002.” Similar ideology has provided further incentive to tolerate the FARC. 3. Policy Goals a. Maintain Power and Ideology: On June 23rd Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos announced a cease-fire agreement between the FARC and Colombian government, initiating gradual rebel disarmament. This historic agreement adds a new dimension to Guerilla relations in Venezuela that could have unpredictable effects on trafficking. Regardless of the consequences, so far for Venezuelans the dynamic remains the same: the insider positions of certain high officials continue to benefit select Venezuelans of key authority. Furthermore, maintaining ties with the FARC allows for the enforcement and potentially spread of Bolivariansim, in addition to its Venezuelan subtype, Chavism. However as often is the case, the group enjoying the perks of power and money constitutes only a small fraction of the population, while the majority of the country struggles in adversity suffering from skyrocketing inflation and scarcity of basic goods. Regardless, securing positions of power and spreading Chavismo doctrine are the top priorities of this administration. 4. Policy Recommendations a. Drug Trade and Stability: Actively addressing drug trade is feasible though indirect, given Venezuela’s passive role as a transport country. Policy solutions will ultimately depend on the government’s choice to resist, regulate, or ignore FARC activity in affected regions. Confronting activity by forming new alliances and enforcing rural government presence will likely be followed by conversations with other governments (Colombia, United States, etc.) and associations like the DEA. However it is important to note that such an approach could jeopardize existing government power relations. Furthermore, the outcomes of intervention are unpredictable given the Colombian-FARC peace accord and the volatile national climate. Maintaining a passive status quo to protect insider profits will ensure select benefits but must be accompanied by some sort of policy to alleviate national frustration. While the approach towards FARC activity can vary, what is not flexible is the dire need to address the misery of the general population. This intense dissatisfaction is only exacerbated by a drug trade that compromises the quality of living for most while benefiting the select elite. 5. Conclusion a. Goals and Considerations: To set effective trafficking policy this administration must consider drug trade as both a power struggle and facet in a complex array of economic difficulties. However, increasing national stability should be the foremost consideration in addressing FARC activity. Stabilization would also be in the party’s best interest as a means of gaining public favorability and maintaining political control. This is especially true in light of the current economic turmoil and crushing defeat of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela in the 2015 Congressional elections. Furthermore, considering the effects, if any, of the recent FARC-Colombian peace accord on trafficking should be factored into the chosen approach. Note that while achieving national stability is a universal goal, the means to do so are not. In other words, varying stances on FARC activity have important political implications which ought to be considered before they alter the nation’s trajectory moving forward. Sources Wikipedia, “Illegal Drug Trade in Venezuela” NYT, “Venezuela is Cocaine Hub Besides Its Claims” InSight Crime, “Venezuela” Humanosphere, “Colombia’s FARC Deal Marks a Step Toward Peace, But Violence Is Far From Over” Business Insider, “Venezuela Is on the Brink of a Political and Economic Meltdown” United Nations, World Drug Report 2010 United States Department of Treasury, Treasury Targets Venezuelan Government Officials Supporting the FARC Cunningham, Brokers and Key Players in the Internationalization of the FARC Scaramozzi, Economic Geography of Venezuela and Brazil: U.S. National Security Implications