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Research Methods Research Methods Principles • The goal is research literacy. – Most of our us will not be career researchers. – BUT….we are all consumers of research. – How do you tell the good from the bad? • No research is perfect. Everything is open to critique—a great platform for critical thinking. • Vitamin C benefit Methods Is Like Whac-A-Mole… a fun game for which there is no perfect solution Whac-A-Mole • If I’m conducting my own research, the goal is to minimize the moles. • If I’m considering the research of others, the goal is to identify as many moles as I can. Topic 1: Moles BIAS • Hindsight bias • 20/20 vision • Confirmation bias • Buying a jeep • Overconfidence • Someone who cannot sing at all but who believes she has a great voice and decides to try out for American Idol. When she submits her audition tape, she could end up being laughed at or ridiculed for her terrible voice because of her overconfidence. • Hawthorne Effect • Placebo Effect Hawthorne Effect • By simply knowing you are part of study can affect the results • Hawthorne Works factory Illinois 1920’s • Told workers about the change in lighting to increase productivity • What do you think happened? Placebo Effect • • • • • Effect solely due to participants belief Inert components of an experiment Sugar pills (drug study) Non-electric stimulation (Parkinsons) Athletic performance (Phelps) 98% Certainty in your notebook answer the following 1. The area of the US in square miles? 2. The population of Australia 2007? 3. American battle deaths in Spanish-American War? 4. Female psychiatrists in the US in 2005? 5. Operating nuclear plants worldwide in 2007? 98% Certainty 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Area of US: Australian pop.: Battle deaths: Female psychiatrists: Nuclear plants: 3.6 million sq. miles 20.4 million 385 13,079 435 Topic 2: Descriptive Techniques • Case studies • Study one or a group in depth and/or over long period of time • Surveys • Questionnaires • Naturalistic observation. • Correlational Study • More on this later Case Studies: Phineas Gage Phineas Gage 1823-1860 Brad Wray’s Ballad of Phineas Gage Disadvantage: Cannot generalize to whole population Topic 3: Experimentation • The purpose of an experiment is to establish a cause-and-effect relationship. • Experiments are the only research method that can establish cause-and-effect. IV, DV, CONTROL • Independent variable (IV): Variable the experimenter manipulates (i.e. changes) – assumed to have a direct effect on the dependent variable. • Dependent variable (DV): Variable the experimenter measures, after making changes to the IV that are assumed to affect the DV. • Control: Experimental controls are mechanisms in science that eliminate extraneous factors that might otherwise affect the results of an experiment • i.e. one group is given an experimental medicine and another group is given an inactive placebo that is identical in appearance. Example Experiment General hypothesis: Food affects learning. Specific hypothesis with operational variables: Students who eat an (OD)oatmeal raisin cookie before class each day will have higher average scores on the (OD) semester final than students who don’t eat a cookie. Eating cookies before class each day will lead to higher average scores. Variables: Independent (IV) Controlled by experimenter The “cause” variable Dependent (DV) Predicted by experimenter The “effect” variable Eating cookies before class each day will lead to higher average scores. What if kids get cookies and A’s? Groups (conditions): to establish different levels of the IV Experimental group Exposed to IV Get cookie Control group Not exposed to IV No cookie Eating cookies before class each day will lead to higher average scores. Confounding Variables IV DV Expt. Gp. Cookie 95% Environmental Cntrl. Gp. No Cookie 82% Expectations Individual differences Double Blind procedure • Both the experimenter and the participants do not know who will receive the drug/treatment/experimentation • Great way to reduce confounding variables Random sampling vs. random assignment Random Sampling • To select participants from population • Allows you generalize results Random Assignment • To divide participants into groups • Controls individual difference confounding variables Note: I do not provide this slide to my students. Eating cookies before class each day will lead to higher average scores. IV DV Expt. Gp. Cookie 95% Cntrl. Gp. No Cookie 82% 85% 93% Confounding Variables • Anything that will affect the outcome of a study • We have to reduce as many as possible • What are some confounding variables that you can think of for the cookie and grades experiment? • How can reduce confounding Variables? OD!!! Importance of Operational Definitions Students are more likely to smile for their senior pictures if they have a friendly photographer. IV? Photographer friendliness DV? Smiling Operational definitions are needed for both of these variables. To illustrate the importance of this, have students determine how many of the students on the following slide are smiling. Experimental Design Terms • • • • • • • • Hypothesis Operational definitions Participant selection IV & DV Experimental & control groups Confounding variables Random assignment Placebo control • • • • Today Ethics Correlation Statistical significance (p value) Ethics Describe how ethical and legal guidelines (e.g., those provided by the American Psychological Association, federal regulations, local institutional review boards) protect research participants and promote sound ethical practice. Was John Watsons study ethical? Stanley Milgram • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yr5cjyok VUs APA guidelines • American Psychological Association • Set up precise guidelines for an ethical study • Every study must go through an IRB (institutional Review Board) and Must include: • Informed Consent • Confidentiality • Protection from harm • Option to leave the study • Debriefing Validity vs Reliability • Validity- Does the study measure what its trying to measure • If Mr. Andrews gave you a math test in english class it would not be a valid test • Reliability- same results after multiple trials and with different samples or populations • A good study MUST BE VALID AND RELIABLE • ACT SAT, Valid and Reliable? why • Buzzfeed quiz to determine which Hogwarts house you belong • How do we determine if a study is both? Statistics The Joys of Stats! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v= jbkSRLYSojo Randomness Randomness • Random Sampling- Choosing a representation of a larger population • i.e. this class is a sample of students from Summit- who do we need to add to ensure its an equal representation? • Random Assignment- assigning groups to participant in a study • Number one’s and two’s Guiding Principles • Our focus should be conceptual, not computational. • Statistics are necessary to understand the meaning of a set of numbers. • We need to demonstrate the importance of statistics throughout the entire course, not just in the methods unit. Topic 1: Frequency Distributions Putting scores in order adds meaning Bar graphs (histograms) are visual representations of frequency distributions. A 40 4 39 7 38 10 37 8 36 15 B 35 8 34 8 33 8 32 7 C 31 4 30 5 29 7 28 D 27 26 2 25 1 24 2 F <24 1 45% 32% 16% 5% 1% Topic 2: What’s the center of the distribution? Measures of Central Tendency Mode --Most common = 4 Mean --Arithmetic avg = 20/5 = 4 Median --Middle score = 4 Quiz Scores 4 3 5 4 4 Central Tendency: Mean vs. Median 1968 TOPPS Baseball Cards Nolan Ryan Billy Williams Luis Aparicio Harmon Killebrew Orlando Cepeda Maury Wills Jim Bunning Tony Conigliaro Tony Oliva Lou Pinella Mickey Lolich $1500 $8 $5 $5 $3.50 $3.50 $3 $3 $3 $3 $2.50 Elston Howard Jim Bouton Rocky Colavito Boog Powell Luis Tiant Tim McCarver Tug McGraw Joe Torre Rusty Staub Curt Flood With Ryan: Median=$2.50 Mean=$74.14 $2.25 $2 $2 $2 $2 $1.75 $1.75 $1.5 $1.25 $1 Without Ryan: Median=$2.38 Mean=$2.85 The median is a better measure of central tendency than the mean when there are extreme scores. Topic 3: How spread out are the data? Measures of variation Range • The spread between the highest number & the lowest number. • Only considers two numbers Standard deviation Calculation Example for Standard Deviation Punt Distance 36 38 41 45 Deviation from Mean -4 -2 +1 +5 Deviation Squared 16 4 1 25 std. dev. = Variance = 11.5 = 3.4 yds Mean = 160/4 = 40 yds 46 46/4 = 11.5 = variance Topic 4: Properties of the Normal Curve In a large, randomly distributed data set • 68% of scores will be within 1 SD of the mean. • 95% of scores will be within 2 SDs of the mean. • 99.7% of scores will be withing 3 SDs of the mean. Topic 4: Properties of the Normal Curve Marilyn Vos Savant: claimed IQ of 228. Is it more meaningful to express her IQ as points above average or as standard deviations above average? Topic 5: Correlation • A measure of the strength of the relationship between two variables. • Can be positive or negative. • Useful for making predictions. • You can fairly easily calculate correlations with Excel or Google Docs. Topic 5: Correlation What does a correlation looks like? Scatterplots Positive Correlation Negative Correlation Topic 5: Correlation No Correlation Topic 5: Correlation How do you express a correlation numerically? The Correlation Coefficient R= +/- 1 Topic 5: Correlation A strong correlation is not enough to establish a cause and effect relationship. Example: There is a correlation between TV watching and grades. Do you think it’s positive, or negative? From this, what do we know about cause-andeffect. Topic 5: Correlation Even correlations that are clearly not cause-andeffect relationships can be used for prediction. Ex: College entrance exams and freshman GPA. Ex: Shoe size and vocabulary size in elementary school children. Ex: Ice cream sales and the rate of violent crimes. Topic 5: Correlation Weird correlations: http://www.ebaumsworld.com/pictures/view/84284804/?autoplay=true Topic 5: Correlation Weird correlations: http://www.ebaumsworld.com/pictures/view/84284804/?autoplay=true Topic 6: Statistical Significance • A measure of the likelihood that a result is caused by chance. • In an experiment, we want that likelihood to be low so we can conclude a causeand-effect relationship exists between the IV and the DV. Topic 6: Statistical Significance • Several statistics (e.g., chi square, t-test) can be used to calculate statistical significance, but we don’t need to know these • They do need to know how to interpret the results of these tests—the p value. Topic 6: Statistical Significance • P value is an estimate of the probability that a result was caused by chance. • In an experiment, it’s the likelihood that the difference between the experimental and control conditions as measured by the DV was caused by chance. • We want this difference to be caused by our manipulation—the IV—not by chance. Statistical Significance p value likelihood a result is caused by chance can be no greater than 5% p ≤ .05 Topic 6: Statistical Significance • To say that the results of an experiment are statistically significant means that there is a small likelihood that the results were caused by chance; that is, a high likelihood they were caused by the IV. • The threshold for statistical significance is no more than a 5% likelihood the results were caused by chance. • We express this: p ≤ .05