Download Gross Domestic Product: June 2016 quarter

Gross Domestic Product: June 2016 quarter
Embargoed until 10:45am – 15 September 2016
Key facts
Economic activity, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), grew 0.9 percent in the June
2016 quarter. This follows a 0.9 percent increase in the March 2016 quarter.
The main movements by industry were:




construction was up 5.0 percent, after a 5.1 percent increase in the previous quarter. All
construction sub-industries increased
rental, hiring, and real estate services was up 1.3 percent, on the back of a rising number of house
sales
retail trade was up 1.9 percent, due to increased furniture, electrical, and hardware retailing,
pharmaceutical and other store-based retailing, and food and beverage services
11 of the 16 GDP industries increased in the June 2016 quarter.
Expenditure on gross domestic product grew 1.2 percent in the June 2016 quarter.
The main movements in GDE were:





household consumption expenditure was up 1.9 percent, driven by spending on services and
durable goods
investment in fixed assets was up 3.1 percent, due to increased investment in residential building
and transport equipment
inventories ran down, due to a decrease in manufacturing inventories
exports of goods and services was up 4.0 percent, due to exports of dairy, fruit, crude oil, and
meat. Exports of goods has the largest quarterly increase since 1998
imports of goods and services was up 2.6 percent.
See commentary for more detailed analysis.
See gross domestic product visualisation, an interactive tool showing quarterly changes in the production
of the different industries in New Zealand's economy.
Liz MacPherson, Government Statistician
ISSN 1178-0290
15 September 2016
2
Commentary









New Zealand economy grows 0.9 percent
Expenditure on GDP up 1.2 percent
Impact of housing visible across the economy
Broad investment growth drives increased imports
Export of goods hits 18-year high
Strong domestic consumption, while tourist spending tapers off
Real purchasing power of New Zealand's income up 0.4 percent
New Zealand growth ahead of most of our trade partners
Find data tables and more information
New Zealand economy grows 0.9 percent
Gross domestic product (GDP) was up 0.9 percent in the June 2016 quarter. This follows
a revised 0.9 percent increase in the March 2016 quarter. Growth for the year ended June 2016
was 2.8 percent.
When comparing GDP growth to population change, GDP per capita was up 0.5 percent in the
June 2016 quarter, following a revised 0.3 percent increase in the March 2016 quarter. GDP per
capita for the year ended June 2016 increased 0.7 percent.
Note: Seasonally adjusted chain-volume series expressed in 2009/10 prices.
Eleven out of 16 industries increased this quarter.
3
The largest increases by industry were:






construction was up 5.0 percent, and all construction sub-industries increased
rental, hiring, and real estate services was up 1.3 percent, due to real estate services
retail trade and accommodation was up 1.9 percent, due to food and beverage services;
and furniture, electrical, and hardware retailing
health care and residential care was up 1.3 percent, due to increases in private health
care
manufacturing was up 0.8 percent, due to non-metallic mineral product manufacturing;
furniture and other manufacturing; and food, beverage, and tobacco product
manufacturing
agriculture was up 1.8 percent, due to increased dairy production.
The main decreases by industry were:


public administration and safety was down 1.2 percent, due to a decrease in public order,
safety, and regulatory services
mining was down 2.5 percent, due to oil and gas extraction, and coal mining.
Expenditure on GDP up 1.2 percent
The expenditure method of GDP rose 1.2 percent in the June 2016 quarter, following a revised
0.7 percent increase in the March 2016 quarter.
Note: The expenditure and production measures of GDP are conceptually the same, but use
different data sources, so can differ in practice. The production measure of GDP measures the
volume of goods and services produced in the economy, while the expenditure measure shows
how these goods and services were used. While the production-based and expenditure-based
measures are both official series, the production-based measure historically shows less volatility
and is the preferred series for the quarter-on-quarter changes.
The main movements in the expenditure measure of GDP this quarter were:




exports of goods and services was up 4.0 percent, and imports of goods and services
was up 2.6 percent
household consumption expenditure was up 1.9 percent, due to expenditure on services
and durable goods
investment in fixed assets was up 3.1 percent, due to residential building; transport
equipment; and plant, machinery, and equipment
inventories were run-down $390 million, due to decreases in manufacturing inventories.
4
Note: Seasonally adjusted chain-volume series expressed in 2009/10 prices.
Impact of housing visible across the economy
Housing is associated with several areas of growth this quarter. Construction increased 5.0
percent in the June 2016 quarter, on par with a revised 5.1 percent increase in the March 2016
quarter. All construction sub-industries continued to grow, reflecting continued growth in the
value of building activity in New Zealand reported in Value of Building Work Put in Place: June
2016 quarter.
5
Note: Seasonally adjusted chain-volume series expressed in 2009/10 prices.
Manufacturing grew 0.8 percent in the June 2016 quarter. The largest contributor to the growth
was non-metallic mineral product manufacturing, which increased 11 percent. This industry –
which includes glass, cement, and concrete manufacturing – makes products used mainly in the
construction sector.
Service industries grew by 0.7 percent in the June 2016 quarter, following 0.9 percent growth
(revised) in the March 2016 quarter. Rental, hiring, and real estate services was the main driver
of growth – up 1.3 percent. In particular, real estate services grew due to an increased number of
house sales.
Growth in these industries is mirrored by continued strength in investment in construction-related
assets on the expenditure side of GDP. The June 2016 quarter saw increased investment in the
three key construction-related fixed assets – residential building, non-residential building, and
other construction (including roading and infrastructure investment). Residential building was the
biggest contributor in the June 2016 quarter, increasing 6.0 percent.
Broad investment growth drives increased imports
Overall investment in fixed assets was up 3.1 percent in the June 2016 quarter, following a
revised 2.6 percent increase in the March 2016 quarter.
Residential building was the main driver of investment growth this quarter, and all asset
types had increased investment. Business investment was up 1.7 percent, with transport
equipment, and plant, machinery, and equipment posting large increases.
6
Note: Seasonally adjusted chain-volume series expressed in 2009/10 prices.
Imports of capital goods were up 6.1 percent this quarter, reflecting increased investment in both
transport equipment and plant, machinery, and equipment. These increases, alongside a 4.3
percent increase in consumption good imports, were the primary contributors to the growth in
imports this quarter.
Imports of goods and imports of services both increased, up 3.9 percent and 0.5 percent,
respectively. This led to a 2.6 percent increase overall in imports of goods and services in the
June 2016 quarter.
7
Note: Seasonally adjusted chain-volume series expressed in 2009/10 prices.
Export of goods hits 18-year high
Exports of goods and services increased 4.0 percent in the June 2016 quarter. This was due to
an increase of 7.6 percent in exports of goods – the largest quarterly increase in exports of
goods since September 1998. This growth was partly offset by a decrease of 1.6 percent in
exports of services. Dairy and meat products showed strong increases – up 13 percent and 8.5
percent, respectively – which reverse the declines in exports of these products observed in the
March 2016 quarter.
Agriculture-led export strength underpinned by run-down of inventories
On the production side, primary industries grew 0.5 percent in the June 2016 quarter. This was
driven by agriculture, which increased 1.8 percent in the June 2016 quarter, due to increased
dairy production. Associated goods-producing industries also saw growth, with food, beverage,
and tobacco product manufacturing up 1.3 percent – driven by meat and meat product
manufacturing.
However, export increases outstripped the production increases in both meat product and dairy
product manufacturing. Export volumes increases for the June 2016 quarter were achieved by
running down inventories, in particular for dairy, which built up heavily in the March 2016 quarter.
8
Strong domestic consumption, while tourist spending tapers off
Household consumption expenditure increased 1.9 percent in the June 2016 quarter, following a
0.4 percent increase in the March 2016 quarter. The June quarter increase is the largest
increase since the June 2009 quarter.
The main contributors to this growth were spending on services and durable goods. Services
rose 1.7 percent, due to spending on accommodation; and restaurant and ready-to-eat meals.
Durable goods rose 3.6 percent, due to spending on clothing; furniture and furnishings; and
audio-visual equipment.
While household consumption expenditure was up, overseas tourist spending decreased 1.7
percent in the June 2016 quarter – lowering the overall growth of spending in New Zealand. In
the June 2016 year, overseas tourist spending was up 14 percent – the lowest annual growth
since the September 2015 peak.
9
Note: Seasonally adjusted chain-volume series expressed in 2009/10 prices.
The overall spending impact is reflected in growth in several service industries. Both services
and durable goods spending is reflected in the retail trade and accommodation industry, which
increased 1.9 percent in the June 2016 quarter. This was due to food and beverage services;
and furniture, electrical, and hardware retailing.
For other service industries, the picture was mixed. Some saw growth, such as health care and
residential care, which increased 1.3 percent in the June 2016 quarter due to increases in private
health care. Others declined, including public administration and safety, which decreased 1.2
percent due to a decrease in public order, safety, and regulatory services.
10
Real purchasing power of New Zealand's income up 0.4 percent
Real gross national disposable income (RGNDI), which measures the real purchasing power of
New Zealand’s disposable income, was up 0.4 percent in the June 2016 quarter. This follows a
revised 2.1 percent increase in the March 2016 quarter. RGNDI increased 2.6 percent for the
June 2016 year, compared with an increase in GDP of 2.8 percent over the same period.
The terms of trade fell over the June 2016 quarter, causing growth in RGNDI to be lower
compared to GDP. Overseas Trade Indexes (Prices and Volumes): June 2016 quarter
(provisional) reported a 2.1 percent decrease in the merchandise (goods) terms of trade, and a
2.4 percent decrease in the services terms of trade. Both were caused by falls in export prices
and slight rises in import prices.
Terms of trade is the ratio of the price of exports to the price of imports. A decline in the terms of
trade means that more exports are needed to pay for a given volume of imports. This means that
a smaller volume of goods and services can be purchased by residents out of the incomes
generated by a given level of domestic production.
11
Note: Actual chain-volume series expressed in 2009/10 prices.
RGNDI per capita was down 0.1 percent in the June 2016 quarter, following a revised 1.5
percent increase in the March 2016 quarter. Over the June 2016 year RGNDI per capita
increased 0.5 percent. This shows that New Zealand’s real purchasing power increased more
than New Zealand’s population over this period.
12
Note: Seasonally adjusted chain-volume series expressed in 2009/10 prices.
See Real gross national disposable income (in DataInfo+) for more about RGNDI.
New Zealand growth ahead of most of our trade partners
Percentage changes in GDP – international comparisons
Quarterly percentage change
Change from same quarter
Country
in GDP
previous year
New Zealand
0.9
3.6
Australia
0.5
3.3
Canada
-0.4
0.9
Euro area (19
0.3
1.6
countries)
Japan
0.2
0.8
OECD
0.3
1.6
United Kingdom
0.6
2.2
United States
0.3
1.2
GDP data for a wider range of countries can be found at the OECD.Stat webpage. Care should
be taken when comparing New Zealand’s GDP figures with those of other countries, as the
methodology used varies internationally.
Find data tables and more information
For more detailed data see the Excel tables in the 'Downloads' box.
13
See DataInfo+ for information on definitions and data quality. These sections were previously
included in this release.
14
Related links
Next release
Gross Domestic Product: September 2016 quarter will be released on 15 December 2016.
Subscribe to information releases, including this one, by completing the online subscription form.
The release calendar lists all information releases by date of release.
Related releases
Benchmarks from National Accounts (Industry Benchmarks): Year ended March 2013 are used
to reconcile the quarterly production measure of GDP.
Benchmarks from National Accounts (Income and Expenditure): Year ended March 2015 are
used to reconcile the quarterly expenditure measure of GDP.
Past releases
Gross Domestic Product – information releases has links to past releases.
Related information
National accounts provide an annual measure of economic aggregates in the New Zealand
economy.
Copyright and terms of use
Includes our copyright, attribution, and liability statements.
Data quality
National accounts quarterlies – DataInfo+
General methodology used to produce these statistics.
National accounts quarterlies – concepts – DataInfo+
Definitions of terms used in this release.
15
Revisions






Revisions to GDP
Revisions to expenditure on GDP
Government improvements
Financial intermediation services indirectly measured
Interpolation
Revisions table
We incorporated several revisions in this release. The key revisions are discussed below.
Revisions to GDP


The most significant revisions to the production measure of GDP were to rental, hiring,
and real estate services, which had significant revisions to the March 2016 quarter due to
updated house sales data
Updated respondent information and other source data also resulted in revisions to
agriculture, forestry, and fishing; manufacturing; electricity, gas, water, and waste
services; retail trade; information media and telecommunications; financial and insurance
services; local government; education and training; and arts, recreation, and other
services.
Revisions to expenditure on GDP





Gross fixed capital formation was revised due to updated data for transfer costs data.
Inventories was revised due to updated agriculture data, updated data from Economic
Survey of Manufacturing: June 2016 quarter, and updated data from Retail Trade Survey:
June 2016 quarter.
Household consumption expenditure was revised due to updated data for
telecommunications, and fringe benefits. There were also revisions due to updated
Balance of Payments data for travel services.
Local government was revised due to updated data from the Local Authority
Statistics: June 2016 quarter – tables.
Imports and exports were revised due to updated overseas merchandise trade data and
updated balance of payments (BoP) data. Revisions due to BoP include updated data for
travel services, and updated data for insurance services.
Government improvements
Following a process improvement review, we implemented system and process changes for
government final consumption expenditure. This has led to minor revisions to some historical
data. Improved processes were implemented in the June 2016 quarter and applied backwards to
ensure a consistent time series. These raise the transparency of our internal processes and
reduce risks. The improvements have been implemented consistently across the times series and have led
to improved estimates over June 1998 to September 1999 quarters.　Further changes will be made next quarter for additional methodological improvements we
have identified.
16
Financial intermediation services indirectly measured
Updated input data for financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM) resulted in
revisions to financial and insurance services in the production measure of GDP, and also in
revisions to the following in the expenditure measure of GDP:




household consumption expenditure
private non-profit consumption expenditure
central and local final consumption expenditure
exports and imports of services.
Interpolation
For areas of the economy that have annual data but lack a quarterly indicator, we use an
algorithm, called interpolation, to estimate quarterly movements from an annual benchmark.
Annual benchmarks used for the quarterly GDP release are typically for years ended March.
Therefore, the June 2016 quarter is the first quarter for the March 2017 year. When a new March
year is entered, interpolation re-estimates quarterly movements, which can result in minor
revisions.
Revisions table
The following table shows the previously published and revised quarterly movements for
the June 2016 quarter GDP and expenditure on GDP (GDE).
Previously published and revised June 2016 quarterly movements
Quarter
GDP
GDE
Percentage change from previous quarter
Previously
Previously
Revised
Revised
published
published
June 2010
0.7
0.7
0.4
0.4
September 2010
-0.3
-0.3
-1.4
-1.4
December 2010
-0.4
-0.4
-0.6
-0.6
March 2011
1.1
1.1
1.4
1.4
June 2011
0.7
0.7
0.9
0.9
September 2011
0.9
0.9
1.2
1.2
December 2011
0.6
0.6
1.0
1.0
March 2012
0.8
0.8
0.0
0.0
June 2012
0.3
0.3
1.0
1.0
September 2012
0.3
0.3
0.7
0.7
December 2012
1.4
1.4
0.7
0.7
March 2013
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.2
June 2013
0.8
0.8
-0.1
-0.1
September 2013
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
December 2013
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.3
March 2014
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
June 2014
0.9
0.9
0.5
0.5
September 2014
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
17
December 2014
0.9
March 2015
0.2
June 2015
0.3
September 2015
0.8
December 2015
0.9
March 2016
0.7
Source: Statistics New Zealand
0.8
0.2
0.4
0.8
0.9
0.9
18
1.1
0.3
0.6
1.3
0.8
0.5
1.1
0.3
0.6
1.2
0.7
0.7
Contacts
For media enquiries contact:
Daniel Griffiths
Wellington 04 931 4600
Email: [email protected]
For technical information contact:
Jane Ellis or Morgan Sissons
Wellington 04 931 4600
Email: [email protected]
For general enquiries contact our Information Centre:
Phone: 0508 525 525 (toll free in New Zealand)
+64 4 931 4600 (outside New Zealand)
Email: [email protected]
Subscription service:
Subscribe to information releases, including this one, by completing the online subscription form.
Correction notifications:
Subscribe to receive an email if a correction notice is published for Gross Domestic Product.
Unsubscribe to correction notifications for Gross Domestic Product.
Subscribe to all to receive an email if a correction notice is published for any of our
information releases.
Unsubscribe to all if you change your mind.
19
Tables
The following tables are available in Excel format from the ‘Downloads’ box. If you have
problems viewing the files, see opening files and PDFs.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Gross domestic product by industry – June 2016 quarter
Expenditure on gross domestic product – June 2016 quarter
Gross domestic product by industry – quarterly values
Gross domestic product by industry – quarterly percentage changes
Gross domestic product by industry – annual values
Gross domestic product by industry – annual percentage changes
Expenditure on gross domestic product – quarterly values
Expenditure on gross domestic product – quarterly percentage changes
Expenditure on gross domestic product – annual values
Expenditure on gross domestic product – annual percentage changes
Household consumption expenditure – quarterly values and percentage changes
Household consumption expenditure – annual values and percentage changes
Gross fixed capital formation – quarterly values and percentage changes
Gross fixed capital formation – annual values and percentage changes
Exports of goods and services – quarterly values and percentage changes
Imports of goods and services – quarterly values and percentage changes
Expenditure on gross domestic product current price – quarterly values
Expenditure on gross domestic product current price – quarterly percentage changes
Expenditure on gross domestic product current price – annual values
Expenditure on gross domestic product current price – annual percentage changes
Per capita measures – quarterly values and percentage changes
Per capita measures – annual values and percentage changes
Implicit price deflators – quarterly index values and percentage changes
Implicit price deflators – annual index values and percentage changes
Gross domestic product by industry – percentage changes from same quarter of previous
year
26 Gross domestic product by industry – year ended June values
27 Gross domestic product by industry – year ended June percentage changes
28 Expenditure on gross domestic product – year ended June values and percentage
changes
We have added machine-readable, zipped CSV files of the tables to the downloadable files, as a
trial. Use the feedback form below to send us feedback about them.
Supplementary tables
These tables show a longer time series for expenditure on gross domestic product and gross
domestic product by industry than is included in the March 2016 quarter tables. See the
'Downloads' box.
1
2
3
4
5
Expenditure on gross domestic product – annual values
Expenditure on gross domestic product – annual percentage changes
Expenditure on gross domestic product components – quarterly values
Expenditure on gross domestic product components – quarterly percentage changes
Gross domestic product by industry – annual values
20
6 Gross domestic product by industry – annual percentage changes
7 Gross domestic product by industry – quarterly values
8 Gross domestic product by industry – quarterly percentage changes
Access more data on Infoshare
Use Infoshare to access time-series data specific to your needs. For this release, select the
following categories from the Infoshare homepage:
Subject category: Economic indicators
Group: National Accounts – SNA 2008 – SNE
Next release
Gross Domestic Product: September 2016 quarter will be released on 15 December 2016.
21