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3.2. Cournot Model Matilde Machado 1 3.2. Cournot Model Assumptions: All firms produce an homogenous product The market price is therefore the result of the total supply (same price for all firms) Firms decide simultaneously how much to produce Quantity is the strategic variable. If OPEC was not a cartel, then oil extraction would be a good example of Cournot competition. ? The equilibrium concept used is Nash Equilibrium (Cournot-Nash) Agricultural products? http://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/dp/2010/DP0766.pdf Industrial Economics- Matilde Machado 3.2. Cournot Model 2 3.2. Cournot Model Graphically: Let’s assume the duopoly case (n=2) MC=c Residual demand of firm 1: RD1(p,q2)=D(p)-q2. The problem of the firm with residual demand RD is similar to the monopolist’s. Industrial Economics- Matilde Machado 3.2. Cournot Model 3 3.2. Cournot Model Graphically (cont.): P p* MC D(p) RD1(q2) = Residual demand q*1= q2 R1(q2) MR Industrial Economics- Matilde Machado 3.2. Cournot Model 4 3.2. Cournot Model Graphically (cont.): q*1(q2)=R1(q2) is the optimal quantity as a function of q2 Let’s take 2 extreme cases q2: Case I: q2=0 RD1(p,0)=D(p) whole demand Firm 1 should the q*1(0)=qM produce Monopolist’ s quantity Industrial Economics- Matilde Machado 3.2. Cournot Model 5 3.2. Cournot Model Case 2: q2=qc RD1(p,qc)=D(p)-qc D(p) c Residual Demand qc c MR<MCq*1=0 qc MR Industrial Economics- Matilde Machado 3.2. Cournot Model 6 3.2. Cournot Model Note: If both demand and cost functions are linear, reaction function will be linear as well. q1 Reaction function of firm 1 qM qc Industrial Economics- Matilde Machado 3.2. Cournot Model q2 7 3.2. Cournot Model If firms are symmetric then the equilibrium is in the 45º line, the reaction curves are symmetric and q*1=q*2 q1 qc q1=q2 qM q*1 E 45º q*2 Industrial Economics- Matilde Machado qM qc 3.2. Cournot Model q2 8 3.2. Cournot Model Comparison between Cournot, Monopoly and Perfect Competition qM<qN<qc q1 qc q1+q2=qN qM q1+q2=qM Industrial Economics- Matilde Machado q1+q2=qc qM q1+q2=qN qc 3.2. Cournot Model q2 9 3.2. Cournot Model Derivation of the Cournot Equilibrium for n=2 Takes the strategy of P=a-bQ=a-b(q1+q2) firm 2 as given, i.e. takes q2 as a constant. Note MC1=MC2=c the residual demand For firm 1: here Max 1 q1 , q2 p c q1 a b(q1 q2 ) c q1 q 1 1 FOC: 0 a bq1 bq2 c bq1 0 q1 2bq1 a bq2 c a c q2 q1 2b 2 Industrial Economics- Matilde Machado 3.2. Cournot Model Reaction function of firm 1: optimal quantity firm 1 should produce given q2. If q2 changes, q1 changes as well. 10 3.2. Cournot Model We solve a similar problem for firm 2 and obtain a system of 2 equations and 2 variables. a c q2 q1 2b 2 q a c q1 2 2b 2 If firms are symmetric, then q1* q2* q* i.e. we impose that the eq. quantity is in the 45º line * a c q ac q* q* q1N q2N 2b 2 3b Industrial Economics- Matilde Machado 3.2. Cournot Model Solution of the Symmetric equilibrium 11 3.2. Cournot Model Solution of the Symmetric equilibrium q1* q2* q* * a c q ac * * q q q1N q2N 2b 2 3b Total quantity and the market price are: 2 ac Q q q 3 b 2 a 2c N N p a bQ a a c 3 3 N N 1 Industrial Economics- Matilde Machado N 2 3.2. Cournot Model 12 3.2. Cournot Model Comparing with Monopoly and Perfect Competition pc p N p M c a 2c 3 a c 2 Where we obtain that: p c p N p M c c c 1 Industrial Economics- Matilde Machado 2 3 In perfect competition prices increase 1-to-1 with costs. 1 2 3.2. Cournot Model 13 3.2. Cournot Model In the Case of n2 firms: Max 1 q1 ,...qN a b(q1 q2 ... qN ) c q1 q1 FOC: a b(q1 q2 ... qN ) c bq1 0 a b(q2 ... qN ) c q1 2b If all firms are symmetric: q1 q2 ... qN q a b(n 1)q c a c a c 1 N q 1 (n 1) q q 2b 2b (n 1)b 2 Industrial Economics- Matilde Machado 3.2. Cournot Model 14 3.2. Cournot Model Total quantity and the equilibrium price are: n a c n a c qc n 1 b b n ac a n n N N p a bQ a b c c n 1 b n 1 n 1 Q N nq N If the number of firms in the oligopoly converges to ∞, the Nash-Cournot equilibrium converges to perfect competition. The model is, therefore, robust since with n→ ∞ the conditions of the model coincide with those of the perfect competition. Industrial Economics- Matilde Machado 3.2. Cournot Model 15 3.2. Cournot Model DWL in the Cournot model = area where the willingness to pN pay is higher than MC DWL 1 DWL p N p c Q c Q N 2 1 1 n n a c a c a c c 2 n 1 n 1 n 1 b b 1 ac n 0 2b n 1 2 Industrial Economics- Matilde Machado 3.2. Cournot Model c QN qc When the number of firms converges to infinity, the DWL converges to zero, which is the same as in Perfect Competition. The DWL decreases faster than either price or quantity (rate of n2) 16 3.2. Cournot Model In the Asymmetric duopoly case with constant marginal costs. linear demand P(q1 q2 ) a b(q1 q2 ) c1 MC of firm 1 c2 MC of firm 2 The FOC (from where we derive the reaction functions): q1 P(q1 q2 ) P(q1 q2 ) c1 0 bq1 a b(q1 q2 ) c1 0 q2 P(q1 q2 ) P(q1 q2 ) c2 0 bq2 a b(q1 q2 ) c2 0 a bq2 c1 q1 2b Replace q2 in the reaction function of firm 1 and solve for q1 q a bq1 c2 2 2b Industrial Economics- Matilde Machado 3.2. Cournot Model 17 3.2. Cournot Model In the Asymmetric duopoly case with constant marginal costs. a c1 1 a bq1 c2 3 a c2 c1 q 1 2b 2 2b 4 4b 4b 2b a c2 2c1 q1* 3b q1 Which we replace back in q2: * a bq 1 c2 a 1 a c2 2c1 c2 a 2c2 c1 q2* 2 b 2 3 b 3b 2b 2b a c2 2c1 a 2c2 c1 2a c2 c1 3b 3b 3b 2a c2 c1 a c2 c1 * * * p a b(q1 q2 ) a 3 3 Q* q1* q2* Industrial Economics- Matilde Machado 3.2. Cournot Model 18 3.2. Cournot Model From the equilibrium quantities we may conclude that: a c2 2c1 q 3b * 1 a 2c2 c1 ; q 3b * 2 If c1<c2 (i.e. firm 1 is more efficient): a c2 2c1 a 2c2 c1 c2 c1 q q 0 3b 3b 3b 3b 3b 3b b * 1 * 2 q q * 1 Industrial Economics- Matilde Machado * 2 In Cournot, the firm with the largest market share is the most efficient 3.2. Cournot Model 19 3.2. Cournot Model From the previous result, the more efficient firm is also the one with a larger price-Mcost margin: p c1 p c2 L1 L2 p p Industrial Economics- Matilde Machado s1 s2 3.2. Cournot Model 20 3.2. Cournot Model Comparative Statics: The output of a firm ↓ when: a c j 2ci * qi 3b ↑ own costs ↓ costs of rival q2 ↑c1 Shifts the reaction curve of firm 1 to the left E’ E ↑q*2 and ↓q*1 q1 Industrial Economics- Matilde Machado 3.2. Cournot Model 21 3.2. Cournot Model Profits are: 1* p* c1 q1* a b(q1* q2* ) c1 q1* a c2 2c1 a c2 2c1 2a c2 c1 a b c1 3b 3b 9b Increase with rival’s costs 1 0 c2 Decrease with own costs 1 0 c1 2 Symmetric to firm 2. Industrial Economics- Matilde Machado 3.2. Cournot Model 22 3.2. Cournot Model More generally… for any demand and cost function. There is a negative externality between Cournot firms. Firms do not internalize the effect that an increase in the quantity they produce has on the other firms. That is when ↑qi the firm lowers the price to every firm in the market (note that the good is homogenous). From the point of view of the industry (i.e. of max the total profit) there will be excessive production. Max i (qi , q j ) qi P(Q) Ci (qi ) Externality: firms only take into account the effect of the price change in their own output. Then their output is higher than what would be optimal from the industry’s point of view. qi CPO: i 0 qi Industrial Economics- Matilde Machado qi P(Q) P(Q) Ci(qi ) 0 effect of the increase in quantity on the inframarginal units 3.2. Cournot Model profitability of the marginal unit 23 3.2. Cournot Model If we define the Lerner index of the market as: L si Li we obtain: i s L s i i i Industrial Economics- Matilde Machado i i si 1 s 2 i i 3.2. Cournot Model H Is the Herfindhal Concentration Index 24 3.2. Cournot Model The positive relationship between profitability and the Herfindhal Concentration Index under Cournot: Remember the FOC for each firm in that industry can be written as: p ci si p The Industry-wide profits are then: n n p ci qi i 1 n i 1 si2 p p ci pq p i 1 Q pQ n s i 1 i 2 i pQ n i 1 si pqi n si p qi Q Q i 1 H H The concentration index is up to a constant an exact measure of industry profitability. Industrial Economics- Matilde Machado 3.2. Cournot Model 25 3.2. Cournot Model Note: The Cournot model is often times criticized because in reality firms tend to choose prices not quantities. The answer to this criticism is that when the cournot model is modified to incorporate two periods, the first where firms choose capacity and the second where firms compete in prices. This two period model gives the same outcome as the simple Cournot model. Industrial Economics- Matilde Machado 3.2. Cournot Model 26