Download Property Index Overview of European Residential Markets

Property Index
Overview of European
Residential Markets
European housing 2012
2nd edition, May 2013
Table of Contents
Introduction
3
Economic Development in Europe
4
Residential Markets in Europe
Housing Development Intensity
Housing Stock
Ownership Structure
Apartment Size – Number of Rooms
Housing Costs
Comparison of Residential Property Prices in Selected Countries and Cities
Average Transaction Price of a New Dwelling in Selected Countries
Average Transaction Price of a New Dwelling in Selected Cities
Affordability of Own Housing
5
5
5
6
7
7
8
8
9
10
Mortgage Markets in Europe
Indebtedness of the Housing Stock
Residential Debt per Capita
12
12
12
Highlights13
Contacts14
Authors15
2
Introduction
We are pleased to present to you the second edition of
Property Index.
In this issue we have for interest added data regarding
Russian residential property prices.
This publication analyses factors influencing
the development of residential markets and compares
residential property prices in selected (not only)
European countries and cities.
The prices in the selected countries and their major cities
differ significantly as a result of historical development
and various factors affecting the volume of supply and
demand. The main factors are particularly:
Our goal is to provide you with European residential
market data on a regular basis. How do Europeans
live, and for how much? This issue focuses especially
on housing specifics and the prices of own housing in
selected countries in Western and Central Europe:
•• Austria;
•• Belgium;
•• Czech Republic;
•• Denmark;
•• France;
•• Germany;
•• Hungary;
•• Italy;
•• Intensity of residential development;
•• Ownership structure of the housing stock; and
•• Standard size of the dwelling.
Property Index was prepared by a proven international
and cross-functional team of Deloitte professionals in
the development, mortgage and real estate markets.
This publication has been prepared using data collected
by individual Deloitte offices in selected countries.
Property Index capitalises on Deloitte’s extensive
knowledge of the real estate and development industry,
enabling us to provide you with independent and
credible information.
We hope you will find this second issue of
the publication of interest for your business and we
would be delighted to receive your feedback.
•• Netherlands;
•• Poland;
•• Spain; and
•• United Kingdom.
3
Economic Development in Europe
The European Union faced challenging economic
conditions in 2012, with an intensifying sovereign debt
crisis in the euro zone, the spectre of a double-dip
recession for several countries and weakening growth in
even the better-performing countries.
The year 2012 was from the perspective of
the European Union characterised by a recession that
started at the end of 2011 and is linked to the financial
crisis and unsustainable debt levels. Real GDP growth
dropped to -0.3%. The unsustainable accumulation
of debt in the private and public sector, combined
with uncertainty over the macroeconomic situation
and asset quality as well as adverse credit conditions,
has triggered substantial balance-sheet adjustments
in several European states. Corporate debt levels have
started to fall gradually since 2009, but weak economic
activity and its negative impact on corporate profitability
interrupted this decline in 2012.
The economy of European Union was in 2012
influenced especially by three interrelated factors
– the banking crisis, sovereign debt problems and
the crisis of competitiveness.
The banking crisis is still developing. Large-scale
purchases by the European Central Bank managed
to slow down panicking public actions (withdrawing
euro deposits from banks in selected EU countries
and depositing them in Germany), but it seems
that comprehensive banking reform may minimise
the negative effects of the crisis and stabilise
the banking system.
The euro zone continued its struggle to contain
the sovereign debt problems of several member
countries, including Spain, Italy, and Greece.
The inability of these governments to pay interest on
their debt has impacted the banks in stronger European
countries, notably France and Germany, which have
large exposure to the sovereign bonds. The European
recession prompted banks that are holding the troubled
assets to reduce lending, which contributed to lower
growth across the region.
4
During 2012, euro finance ministers agreed on
a second bailout package for Greece, which included
a 53% write-down for investors in Greek bonds. In
May, concern grew over Spain’s fiscal health when
a major bank requested a massive bailout and disclosed
troubled assets. Following the Greek election in June,
the European central bank pledged to provide monetary
support to protect the euro, triggering a rally in stocks
and bonds.
Euro zone’s stability is threatened by depressed
economic activity and social unrest. With a relativelyhigh rate of unemployment, domestic demand in
the selected EU countries is collapsing. By the end of
2012, private consumption and investment had both
fallen for five quarters in a row. On the back of a global
economic recovery, external demand is than set to
remain the predominant growth driver. Crisis-stricken
countries have to restart their economic growth by
boosting exports. Unfortunately, after a decade of
economic boom in the 2000s, wages and prices in
some EU countries are relatively high (considering labour
productivity), making their goods and services less
competitive.
Joblessness has increased steadily over the past two
years, reaching 12% in the euro area and 11% in
the EU with a very large degree of divergence across EU
countries.
Inflationary pressures continue to ease after commodity
prices decreased. The gradual decrease in consumerprice inflation has accelerated in 2012 as the impact
of past increases in indirect taxes and commodity
price hikes falls out of the annual comparison and
weak economic activity as well as bleak labour market
prospects.
A change in the European economic outlook
may be regarded as positive, but continuing high
unemployment, stagnating consumption and volatile
exports may lead to several quarters of fragile economic
growth. As in 2012, a significant economic recovery
from the crisis cannot be expected in Europe in the near
future.
Residential Markets in Europe
Housing Development Intensity
The indicator of housing development intensity on
the residential market of the European Union decreased
from 3.9 in 2011 to 3.3 completed apartments per
1,000 citizens in 2012.
The highest housing development intensity in
the selected countries in 2012 was seen in France
(7.8 completed apartments per 1,000 citizens) and
Austria (5.0 completed apartments per 1,000 citizens).
Residential development in France and Austria in 2012
exceeded the European Union average by 133% and
50% respectively.
Housing development intensity in Italy, Poland,
Belgium and the Netherlands in 2012 oscillated around
the European average.
Housing development in the Czech Republic in 2012
amounted to almost 84% of the European Union
average, which is a slight increase compared to previous
years – however, this increase is mainly caused due
to the decline in residential construction in the EU; in
absolute terms, residential construction in the Czech
Republic decreased from 2.9 in 2011 to 2.81 completed
dwellings per 1,000 inhabitants in 2012.
In the comparison of selected countries, (as in 2011)
Spain reported the greatest housing stock recalculated
per 1,000 citizens in 2012, exceeding the European
average by more than 19% (563 apartments per 1,000
citizens). The second-greatest housing stock was found
in France, where the percentage value exceeded the EU
average by 12% (532 apartments per 1,000 citizens).
Countries such as Spain and France remain ratherspecific markets on a long-term basis due to
the ownership of second/leisure apartments particularly
at the seaside or in the mountains.
As in 2011, the lowest housing stock in 2012 per
1,000 citizens was found in Poland (almost 25%
below the European average, ie 357 apartments per
1,000 citizens) and in Belgium (almost 16% below
the European average, ie 357 apartments per 1,000
citizens). It could be stated that in the above-mentioned
countries there is still space for new development.
Housing development intensity
Housing
development
Index of the number of completed
apartments
per 1,000intensity
citizens 2012
Index of the number of completed apartments per 1,000 citizens 2012
EU 27 = 1
EU 27 = 1
2,33
France
1,50
Austria
Housing development in Denmark and the United
Kingdom achieved in 2012 almost similar values as in
2011.
Italy
1,18
Poland
1,16
1,03
Belgium
1,00
EU 27
The lowest intensity of housing development in 2012
was found in Hungary (1.1 completed apartments per
1,000 citizens) and Germany (1.9 completed apartments
per 1,000 citizens), where the percentage values are
42% and 68% of the European average, respectively.
Housing Stock
The housing stock includes all residential units intended
for living, inhabited (in which at least one person has
permanent or long-term residence) as well as vacant
(units, in which no person with permanent or long-term
residence is registered).
Netherlands
0,99
0,84
Czech Republic
Denmark
0,74
Spain
0,74
0,70
United Kingdom
0,58
Germany
Hungary
0,32
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
Source: National Statistical Offices/Euromonitor International, calculated by Deloitte
The housing stock in individual selected countries
changes on a year-on-year basis depending primarily on
housing development intensity. The average housing
stock in the European Union in 2012 reached a similar
level as in 2011, ie 473.6 apartments per 1,000 citizens.
Property Index Overview of European Residential Markets
5
In a general geographical comparison, Eastern European
countries are below the European average.
Housing stock in 2012
Housing stock in 2012
Index of the number
of apartments
per27
1,000
citizens= 1
Index of the number of apartments
per 1,000
citizens, EU
average
EU 27 average = 1
1,4
Ownership Structure
In 2012, the highest proportion of privately-owned
apartments could be found in Hungary, where
the average per 1,000 citizens showed 127 more
privately-owned apartments than the European Union
average.
In Germany, Denmark, Austria and France, rental
housing plays a significant role. For example, in 2012,
Germany reported approximately 300 rented apartments
per 1,000 citizens.
Germany also reports the lowest share of privatelyowned housing in all of Europe – there are 81 fewer
privately-owned apartments per 1,000 citizens than
the European Union average.
One specific detail of the residential market is
cooperative housing, whose character, however,
is identical to privately-owned housing in many
respects. This form of housing is an important part of
the residential market particularly in the Czech Republic,
Poland and Italy.
1,2
1,12
1,00
1,0
0,91
0,92
0,93
1,04
1,04
1,02
1,19
1,04
0,93
0,84
0,8
0,75
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
Poland
Belgium Netherlands United Hungary
Kingdom
Czech
EU 27
Republic
Italy
Denmark Germany Austria
France
2011
Source: National Statistical Offices/Euromonitor International, calculated by Deloitte
Spain
2012
Housing Stock According to Ownership Structure
Number of households
per 1,000
citizens
in 2012
Housing
Stock
According
to Ownership Structure
Number of households per 1,000 citizens in 2012
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
In the Czech Republic, the preference for privatelyowned housing in previous years led to an abrupt
imbalance between privately-owned housing (including
cooperative housing) and rental housing, as opposed,
for example, to neighbouring Western European
countries.
The highest level of privately-owned housing continues
to be seen in Eastern European countries. The only
exceptions are Spain and the United Kingdom.
50
0
Germany
Czech
Denmark
Republic
Austria
France
Poland Netherlands EU 27
Source: National Statistical Offices/Euromonitor International , calculated by Deloitte
Belgium
Italy
United
Spain
Hungary
Kingdom
Apartment owner
Apartment lessee
Other
Housing stock by accommodation
unit
Housing stock
by size
accommodation unit size
livingwith
in apartments
a certain
numberin
of 2012
rooms in 2012
Households living Households
in apartments
a certainwith
number
of rooms
Hungary
Czech Republic
Eastern European countries report a substantially-lower
share of housing unit owners burdened by mortgage
loans, which is principally due to the region’s specific
development:
Austria
Poland
Italy
Denmark
France
•• Non-functioning mortgage markets and residential
real estate markets for tens of years; and
•• Massive privatisation of housing stock for
non-market prices.
EU 27
Netherlands
Germany
Belgium
Spain
United Kingdom
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Source: National Statistical Offices/Euromonitor International , calculated by Deloitte
6
50%
1 room
60%
2 rooms
70%
80%
3 rooms
4 rooms
90%
100%
5 and more rooms
Apartment Size – Number of Rooms
The comparison of the housing stock by real estate
type (inclination to living in family houses) still shows
that Western European countries, as opposed to other
European countries, tend to acquire or rent property
with a higher number of rooms.
The housing stock by apartment size in the European
Union in 2012 (when taking into account the number of
households living in certain type of dwelling) could be
divided as follows:
•• 1 room – 4% of households;
•• 2 rooms – 11% of households;
•• 3 rooms – 21% of households;
•• 4 rooms – 24% of households;
•• 5 or more rooms – 40% of households.
As in 2011, also in 2012 the highest number of large
apartments in terms of the number of rooms was found
in the United Kingdom, Spain, Belgium and Germany.
The majority of apartments in the above-mentioned
countries have 5 or more rooms. Over 70% of
the housing stock in the United Kingdom and Spain is
made up of apartments with 5 or more rooms.
Compared to other EU Member States, the housing
costs in the Czech Republic in 2011 and 2012 amounted
to approximately 60% of the European Union average,
which ranks the Czech Republic among the countries
with relatively-low housing costs.
As in 2011, the lowest housing costs out of the selected
countries were reported in Hungary and Poland, where
they have for a long time not exceeded 36% and 42%
of the average housing costs in the European Union,
respectively.
A comparison of the average values of housing costs
in Eastern and Western Europe shows that the Eastern
European average is significantly lower than that
of Western Europe. Nevertheless, a regular annual
increase in total housing costs can still be expected in
Eastern European countries’ future, especially given
the estimated average age of most of the apartments
(the need for reconstructions, additions or revitalisations
of family houses or blocks of flats).
Total consumer costs of housing
consumer
costs of housing
Index of the total annual costsTotal
per 1,000
citizens
Index of the total annual costs per 1,000 citizens
EU 27 average = 1
EU 27 average = 1
2,00
1,82
1,80
1,60
1,40
In 2012, the smallest apartments could be found
in Hungary, the Czech Republic and Austria, where
historically apartments with two or three rooms are
predominant.
1,20
1,00
1,00
0,60
1,23
1,23
1,36
1,29
1,01
0,58
0,36
0,42
0,20
0,00
Hungary Poland
Housing Costs
1,17
0,80
0,80
0,40
In a geographical comparison, the inhabitants of Eastern
European countries tend to live in smaller apartments.
1,11
Czech
Republic
Spain
EU 27
Italy
Source: National Statistical Offices/Euromonitor International , calculated by Deloitte
Netherlands
Belgium Germany Austria
France
United
Denmark
Kingdom
2011
2012
The average consumer costs of housing in the European
Union (in other words, the costs of households in
individual EU countries such as rent, services, repairs and
reconstructions) in 2012 exceeded EUR 3,543,000 per
1,000 citizens and EUR 8,300 per household in current
prices based on year-on-year exchange rates.
The highest housing costs of the selected countries
in 2012 were found in Denmark and newly also in
the United Kingdom. The total housing costs in these
countries exceeded the European Union average by 82%
and 36% respectively.
Property Index Overview of European Residential Markets
7
Comparison of Residential Property
Prices in Selected Countries and Cities
Average Transaction Price of a New
Dwelling in Selected Countries
Average Transaction Price of the New Dwelling EUR/ m2
Average Transaction Price of the New Dwelling
EUR/ m 2
4 500
In the second edition of Property Index, Russian data
were included to demonstrate the different situation
compared to Western European countries and transitive
economies in Central Europe. The comparison of
transaction prices in selected European countries in
2011 and 2012 indicates the following:
•• After the significant price growth after 2000,
the price of properties in the transitive economies
of Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic slightly
decreased. Contrarily, the new dwellings in Russia
grew. Generally, the transitive economies and Russia
have the lowest average transaction prices just
slightly above EUR 1,000/m2 (excluding Hungary,
with prices under EUR 1,000/m2);
•• Despite the recorded price growth in Germany, prices
do not differ significantly from those in the Czech
Republic or in Poland; however, the economic level
of Germany is much higher. The relatively-low price
average is caused by the relatively low prices in East
Germany and the difference between more rural and
urban growth cities;
4 000
3 500
3 000
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
HU
PL
RU
CZ
Source: National Statistical Authorities, Deloitte data calculations
DE*
ES
DK
NL
BE
AT
* bid price
IT
UK
2011
FR
2012
Price ofAnnual
the New
Dwelling
Average TransactionAverage
Price ofTransaction
the New Dwelling
change
(%)
Annual change (%)
UK
RU
DE*
AT
•• The group of the countries with average realised
prices around EUR 2,000/m2 includes Austria,
Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Spain (with
slightly lower price level);
BE
FR
DK
PL
HU
•• Not surprisingly, the most expensive were recorded in
the UK and France, followed by Italy.
The year-on-year price changes differed significantly
in compared countries. The highest price growth was
seen in the UK (+13.5) and Russia (11.1%), followed by
Germany (+9.1%). Moderate price growth was recorded
in Austria (+4,8%), Belgium (+3.1%) and France (+2.5).
The transitive economies experienced a decrease in
prices denominated in EUR – Poland (-1.8%), Hungary
(-2.4%) and the Czech Republic (-3.0%).
Negative price development continued in Spain
(-6.2%) and Italy (-3.6%). The prices in the Netherlands
decreased by 6.9%.
The spread between the offered and final transaction
prices of new dwellings is a very important market
indicator as it may demonstrate the situation of buyers
(demand side) and sellers (supply side) and their
negotiating power. This indicator may be compared
in Poland, Denmark, the Czech Republic and Italy; in
the other countries, statistical authorities analyse only
one of the transaction or offered prices.
8
CZ
IT
ES
NL
-10,0%
-5,0%
Source: National Statistical Authorities, Deloitte data calculations
0,0%
* bid price
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
Generally, in 2012 (excluding Denmark) the discount was
higher than in 2011, reaching 12,2% in Italy, 11,7% in
the Czech Republic, followed by Denmark (10,2%) and
Poland (5,7%). The growing gap between the transaction
and offered price may indicate a weak demand side
worsening the position of the supply side.
The prices vary when comparing new and older dwellings
to be purchased. Generally, older dwellings are significantly
cheaper, especially in Hungary (-46% in 2012), Austria
(-37% in 2012). In the Czech Republic, Germany and Spain,
older dwellings are 29%, 25% and 23% below the price
of new developments. The difference is less significant in
Poland, France and Italy ranging between 14% and 18%.
Despite the fact that the price development of new and
older dwellings is convergent in the UK, together with
Russia, these are the only two countries where new
developments are cheaper than older dwellings.
Transaction
price
as the
percentage
of the
offered
price
of the
dwelling
Transaction
price
as the
percentage
of the
offered
price
of the
newnew
dwelling
RU
PL
DK
CZ
IT
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
2011
Source: National Statistical Authorities, Deloitte data calculations
2012
Price Difference of the Older
Price Dwellings
Difference of the Older Dwellings
Discount (%) of the older dwellingDiscount (%) of the older dwelling
Average Transaction Price of
a New Dwelling in Selected Cities
RU
UK
PL
A comparison of transaction prices in selected European
cities in 2011 and 2012 indicates the following:
FR
IT
•• Inner London is the most expensive city in Europe,
with an average transaction price reaching almost
EUR 10,000/m2. Further price growth was seen
between 2011 and 2012. The price growth was
recorded also in Outer London, reaching almost EUR
6,000 in 2012.
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2011
Source: National Statistical Authorities, Deloitte data calculations
2012
Average Transaction
Price of
the New Dwelling
Average
Transaction
Price of the New Dwelling
EUR/ m2
EUR/ m2
12 000
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
HU
PL
RU
CZ
DE*
AT
Source: National Statistical Authorities, Deloitte data calculations
* bid price, ** older dwellings, *** estimation
ES
DK
NL
BE
IT
2011
Property Index Overview of European Residential Markets
Lyon***
Marseille***
Paris region**
Outer London
UK
Paris (inside)**
Turin
Inner London
Milan
Rome
Ghent
Brussels
Antwerp
Rotterdam
Aarhus
Amsterdam
Odense
Valencia
Cobenhaven
Barcelona
Linz
Madrid
Graz
Wien
Munich
Frankfurt
Berlin
Hamburg
Brno
0
Ostrava
-- Warsaw, with an average transaction price of EUR
1,656/m2.
-50%
Prague
-- Budapest, with an average transaction price of
EUR 1,198/m2;
HU
-60%
Krakow
•• Not surprisingly, the cheapest cities can be found in
CEE region, namely:
AT
Moscow
•• Cities with average transaction prices around EUR
4,000/m2 are Moscow, Milan, Rome, Lyon and
Marseille;
CZ
Warsaw
•• Munich, as the most expensive German city in
terms of housing, reached an average price of EUR
5,000 m2 in 2012;
DE
Budapest
•• In Paris, the average transaction prices of older
apartments reached EUR 8,300 in 2012 and Paris
region EUR 5,500.
ES
FR
2012
9
300%
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
HU
The price development between 2011 and 2012 was
recorded in the capitals of the compared countries.
The most significant price decrease (in EUR) was seen in
Warsaw (-8.1%), followed by Amsterdam (-7.3%).
The opposite trend – dynamic price growth- was
significant mainly in Berlin (+13.3%), Inner London
(+11.6%), Moscow (+11.3%) and Vienna (+9.7%).
PL
RU
ES
DK
BE
IT
UK
Lyon*
Marseille*
Paris (inside)
Turin
Inner London
Milan
Rome
Ghent
Brussels
NL
Antwerp
Rotterdam
Aarhus
Amsterdam
Odense
Linz
AT
Cobenhaven
Graz
Wien
Valencia
Madrid
DE
Barcelona
Frankfurt
Munchen
Berlin
Hamburg
Brno
CZ
Ostrava
Prague
0%
Krakow
•• 4 capital cities exceed the national average by more
than by 50% -, Madrid, Copenhagen, Warsaw and
Amsterdam.
350%
Moscow
•• There is a group of cities which prices reach more
than 200% of its country average – London, Berlin,
Frankfurt, Hamburg, Paris and Prague;
400%
Warsaw
•• There are two major cities where the prices exceed
the national average more than three times – Munich
and Moscow, where the prices reach 355% of its
country average;
Comparison of the Main Cities to the Country Average
Comparison of the Main Cities
to the
Country
Average
(country
average
= 100%),
2012 (country average = 100%), 2012
Budapest
A comparison of the prices of dwellings in major European
cities and their respective national average may identify
the biggest price differentiation country by country:
FR
Source: National Statistical Authorities, Deloitte data calculations
* estimation
Average Transaction Price of the New Dwelling - Capitals
Average Transaction Price of the Annual
New Dwelling
Capitals Annual change (%), 2012
change (%),-2012
Berlin
Inner London
Moscow
Affordability of Own Housing
Wien
Brussels
As in the first edition of Property Index, the gross
monthly salaries and the transaction prices of the new
dwellings in the selected cities and countries were
compared to measure the affordability of own housing.
The criterion is number of the annual gross salaries
required to buy a standard-sized new dwelling (70 m2).
Paris
Cobenhaven
Budapest
Prague
Rome
Madrid
Amsterdam
The criterion ranges from 2.2 years in Denmark to 10.1
years in Russia.
Warsaw
-10,0%
-5,0%
0,0%
Source: National Statistical Authorities, Deloitte data calculations
The most affordable housing was recorded in
Denmark and Germany. These two countries are
followed by the group of countries including Belgium,
the Netherlands, Spain and Austria with relatively
affordable own housing ranging 3.6 – 5.4 years for
a standard dwelling
Another group with less affordable own housing
concentrate countries with 6.9 – 7.7 years needed for
the 70 m2 new dwelling – the Czech Republic, Hungary,
Poland and Italy.
The highest number of gross annual salaries is needed in
the UK (8.9), France (9.4) and Russia (10.1).
10
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
1. Denmark, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and
Austria, with high GDP per capita and the most
affordable own housing.
2. Italy, UK and France with levels of GDP per capita in
PPP at the EU average or slightly above (100-109%
of EU-27) and similar affordability of own housing
(7.7 – 9.4 gross annual salaries for the new dwelling
– 70 m2).
3. The transitive economies of the Czech Republic,
Hungary and Poland, where GDP per capita in PPP
is generally lower (66 – 80% of EU-27 average), and
with the 6.9 – 7.5 gross annual salaries, the own
housing affordability is also below average.
The decreasing prices of properties in Spain resulted
in more affordable own housing, but with GDP per
capita in PPP under the EU-27 average, they cannot be
included in the first group. Russia is the least developed
country in the comparison and own housing is the least
affordable.
Affordability of Own Housing
Affordability of Own Housing
Gross annual salaries
for the
standardized
new dwelling
(70 m2),(70
2012
Gross annual
salaries
for the standardized
new dwelling
m2), 2012
12,0
10,0
8,0
6,0
4,0
2,0
0,0
DK
DE
BE
NL
ES
Source: National Statistical Authorities, Deloitte data calculations
AT*
CZ
HU
PL
IT*
UK
FR
RU
* 2011 salary
Affordability of the own housing and the economic level
Affordability of the own housing and the economic level
140
120
GDP per capita in PPP (EU-27=!100)
The affordability of own housing does not seem
to correlate significantly with the economic level
of the country. When GDP per capita in PPP and
affordability are seen in one chart, three groups of
countries may be seen:
100
80
60
40
20
0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
Number of average gross annual salaries to buy the new dwelling (70 m2 )
DK
DE
BE
NL
ES
AT*
CZ
HU
PL
IT*
UK
FR
RU
Source: National Statistical Authorities, Deloitte data calculations
Property Index Overview of European Residential Markets
11
Mortgage Markets in Europe
Indebtedness of the Housing Stock
Residentail debt to GDP (%)
Residentail debt to GDP (%) 2012
2012
120
An important indicator on the residential market is the
indebtedness of the housing stock, ie the proportion of
the volume of mortgage loans to GDP. This indicator has
significantly-different values for the monitored countries
– while the EU27 average is 51.7%, the Czech Republic
reports the lowest level of indebtedness from EU members,
ie 13% of GDP; the Netherlands and Denmark on the other
hand report the highest level of indebtedness amounting
to a mortgage-to-GDP proportion of over 100%. Russia, as
a non EU-member country, in comparison has the lowest
indebtedness of the housing stock, reaching 2.6% of GDP.
Of the monitored western European countries, the lowest
level of indebtedness is reported by the housing stock in Italy
and Austria, amounting to 23% and 28% of GDP. In the two
major European economic powers, France and Germany,
the recorded level of mortgages is 42% and 45 of GDP.
Residential Debt per Capita
100
80
60
40
20
0
RU
CZ
PL
HU
IT
AT
FR
DE
BE
ES
UK
DK
NL
Source: European Mortgage Federation
Residential debt per capita (adult over 18 years of age, EUR)
Residential debt per capita ( adult over 18 years of age, EUR)
and average monthly gross salary
and average monthly gross salary
•• Price of the property;
•• Loan to Value;
•• Number of mortgages issued to number of
inhabitants.
The newest EU joiners, the transitive economies of
Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic, with the lowest
salaries, have the lowest residential debt per capita in the
EU. In line with the lower salaries – lower residential debt
equation, Russian residential debt per capita is the lowest
in the comparison (EUR 311).
Residential debt per capita (EUR)
60 000
The following criterion has several factors that influence
its value:
50 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
HU
PL
RU*
CZ
DE
ES
AT
DK
Source: European Mortgage Federation, National Statistical Authorities, Deloitte data calculations
The Netherlands, the UK, France and Austria, with salaries
ranging from EUR 2,400 to 2,800, differ a lot in the
residential debt per capita – in the Netherlands, the debt
is 4 times higher than in Austria (EUR 47,590 compared
to EUR 11,930). The UK, with EUR 28,790, is significantly
higher than France, with EUR 16,340.
Compared to other Western European countries, Italy has
relatively-low residential debt per capita, even if considering
the relatively-low average salary.
The highest debt per capita can be seen in Denmark; on
the other hand, the average salaries are by far the highest.
12
5 000
Average monthly gross salary
NL
BE
IT
UK
FR
6 000
Highlights
•• The highest housing development intensity in the selected
countries in 2012 was seen in France and Austria
•• As in 2011, the lowest housing stock in 2012 per 1,000 citizens
was found in Poland (almost 25% below the European average)
•• The highest level of privately-owned housing continues to be seen
in CEE countries. The lowest share of privately-owned housing was
recorded in Germany
•• Also in 2012 the highest number of large apartments was found in
the United Kingdom, Spain, and Belgium
•• The highest housing costs of the selected countries in 2012 were
found in Denmark
•• The year-on-year price changes differed significantly in compared
countries. The highest price growth was seen in the United
Kingdom and Russia. Contrary, the significant price drop was seen
in the Netherlands and Spain
•• the compared countries and cities:
-- London and Paris remained the most expensive capitals in
Europe with an average transaction price reaching almost EUR
10,000/m2 in Inner London and EUR 8,300/m2 in Paris
-- Cheapest cities can be found in CEE region, namely: Budapest,
with an average transaction price of EUR 1,200/m2 and Warsaw
with EUR 1,650/m2
-- There are 2 major cities, where the prices exceed the national
average more than three times – Munich and Moscow, where
the prices reached 355% of its country average
•• To buy a new dwelling (70 m2), the needed number of annual gross
salaries ranges from 2.2 in Denmark to 10.1 in Russia
Property Index Overview of European Residential Markets
13
Germany
Hungary
Belgium
Poland
Denmark
United Kingdom
Contacts
h Republic
many
Italy
Spain
ium
mark
United Kingdom
John Whitehead
[email protected]
+44 20 700 729 78
Belgium
Jean-Paul Loozen
[email protected]
+32 2 639 49 40
n
France
ch Republic
Laure Silvestre-Siaz
[email protected]
+33 1 556 121 71
many
Spain
Javier Parada
[email protected]
+34 915 145 000
ium
mark
France
Netherlands
Hungary
Paul Meulenberg
G
Be
Russia
Poland
Denmark
D
Andersen
Czech Republic Lars
France
[email protected]
C
+45 361 025 30
United
Czech Kingdom
Republic
France
Czech Republic
Fr
Ita
Germany
Hungary G
Germany
Austria
Mueller
GermanyGermany Michael
HungaryHu
[email protected]
Sp
+49 89 290 368 428
Belgium
Poland B
Netherlands
Belgium Belgium Czech Republic
Poland Po
Central Europe, Czech Republic
Denmark
Diana Radl Rogerova United Kin
D
Russia
DenmarkDenmark [email protected]
United
Kin
Un
+420 246 042 572
Germany
France
Italy
Austria It
Austria
Italy
Austria Au
Italy
Belgium
Alexander Hohendanner
Hungary
[email protected]
Spain
+43 1 537 002 700
S
Netherland
Spain Spain
Denmark
Ne
Poland
Russia
Russia Ru
Italy
United
Kingdom Italy
Elena
Vistarini
[email protected]
+39 02 833 251 22
Netherlands
Russia
14
Netherlands
[email protected]
+31 8 828 819 82
Austria
n
Austria
Cz
Spain
Authors
Diana Rádl Rogerová
Partner
Real Estate Leader
+420 246 042 572
[email protected]
Petr Hána
Manager
Real Estate & Construction
+420 246 042 825
[email protected]
Pavel Novák
Consultant
Real Estate & Construction
+420 246 042 364
[email protected]
Property Index Overview of European Residential Markets
15
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