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The last century of warming…. GISS SAT England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change Recent climate trends…. ERA-Interim SLP and wind stress trends 1992-2011 England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change Recent climate trends…. AVISO sea surface height trends 1992-2011 England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change Recent climate trends…. HadISST sea surface temperature trends 1992-2011 England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change Recent climate trends…. GISS surface air temperature trends 1992-2011 England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change Recent Pacific Ocean trends…. England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change What do the Pacific wind trends do in models….? OCEAN GCM, SIMPLE ATMOSPHERE England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change What do the Pacific wind trends do in models….? OCEAN GCM, SIMPLE ATMOSPHERE England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change What do the Pacific wind trends do in models….? OCEAN GCM, SIMPLE ATMOSPHERE England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change What do the Pacific wind trends do in models….? SPIN UP Half the hiatus OCEAN GCM, SIMPLE ATMOSPHERE England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change What does this mean for climate projections….? England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change What does this mean for climate projections….? England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change How unusual are the wind trends….? England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change Do models capture the magnitude of decadal variability seen in OBS? England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change Recent OBS wind trends vs. models England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change Conclusions • Recent observed trade wind trend unprecedented England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change Conclusions • Recent observed trade wind trend unprecedented • Missing in CMIP models England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change Conclusions • Recent observed trade wind trend unprecedented • Missing in CMIP models • Cooling impact can account for the hiatus • Ocean heat uptake • Teleconnections from cool East Pacific SST • Hiatus could persist for much of the present decade • Warming out of hiatus likely rapid England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change Greg Johnson NOAA / PMEL Role of trade winds in mid-20th Century hiatus England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change
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