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B 504 / I 538: Introduction to Cryptography Spring 2017 • Lecture 2 Ryan Henry Assignment 0 is due on Tuesday! 1 Ryan Henry Discrete probability 101 Ryan Henry Q: Why discrete probability? A: I’m the prof, and I said so! A: Security definitions rely heavily on probability theory 2 Ryan Henry Probability distributions Defⁿ: A (discrete) probability distribution over a finite set S is a function Pr:S→[0,1] such that ∑ Pr(x)=1. x∈S • The set S is called the sample space of Pr • The elements of S are called outcomes 3 Ryan Henry Probability distributions Defⁿ: A (discrete) probability distribution over a finite set S is a function Pr:S→[0,1] such that ∑ Pr(x)=1. x∈S $\sum_{x\in S}\Pr(x)$ 3 $\Pr\colon S\to[0,1]$ Ryan Henry Probability distributions What kind of nonsensical “definition” was that? A: Actually, it was perfectly sensible Let’s unpack it… 4 Ryan Henry Probability distributions, unpacked • S lists every conceivable outcome of a random process • The function Pr associates a likelihood to each outcome – That is, Pr(x) describes “how likely” x is to happen • The range [1,0] ensures each outcome is associated with a probability that “makes sense” – Pr(x)=0 means: – Pr(x)=1 means: – 0<Pr(x)<1 means: “x NEVER happens” “x ALWAYS happens” “x SOMETIMES—but NOT ALWAYS—happens” • ∑ Pr(x)=1 ensures exactly one outcome happens 4 x∈S (in any given “trial” of the random process) Ryan Henry When should I “unpack” mathematical definitions like you just did? 5 EACH AND EVERY TIME YOU ENCOUNTER ONE!! A: Ryan Henry Probability distributions • Eg.: ² S = {0,1} = {00,01,10,11} Pr : 00 01 10 11 ↧ ↧ ↧ ↧ 1/4 + 1/8 + 1/2 + 1/8 = 1 6 Ryan Henry Probability distributions • Eg.: ² S = {0,1} = {00,01,10,11} Pr : 00 01 10 11 ↧ ↧ ↧ ↧ 1/4 + 1/8 + 1/2 + 1/8 = 1 6 Ryan Henry Probability distributions • Eg.: ² S = {0,1} = {00,01,10,11} Pr : 00 01 10 11 1/4 1/4 1/4 1/4 ↧ ↧ ↧ ↧ • Common/important distributions: 1. Uniform distribution: 6 ∀x∈S, Pr(x)=1 / |S| Ryan Henry Probability distributions • Eg.: ² S = {0,1} = {00,01,10,11} Pr : 00 01 10 11 1/4 1/4 1/4 1/4 ↧ ↧ ↧ ↧ • Common/important distributions: 1. Uniform distribution: 6 ∀x∈S, Pr(x)=1 / |S| Ryan Henry Probability distributions • Eg.: ² S = {0,1} = {00,01,10,11} Pr : 00 01 10 11 1 0 0 ↧ ↧ ↧ ↧ 0 • Common/important distributions: 1. Uniform distribution: 2. Point distribution at x0: 6 ∀x∈S, Pr(x)=1 / |S| Pr(x0)=1∧∀x≠x0, Pr(x)=0 Ryan Henry Probability distributions • Eg.: ² S = {0,1} = {00,01,10,11} Pr : 00 01 10 11 1 0 0 ↧ ↧ ↧ ↧ 0 • Common/important distributions: 1. Uniform distribution: 2. Point distribution at x0: 6 ∀x∈S, Pr(x)=1 / |S| Pr(x0)=1∧∀x≠x0, Pr(x)=0 $\Pr(x_0)=1\wedge\forall x\neq x_0, \Pr(x)=0$ Ryan Henry Events Defⁿ: If Pr:S→[0,1] is a probability distribution, then any subset E⊆S is called an event. The probability of E is Pr[E]≔∑Pr(x). x∈E • Convention: 7 – Square brackets ⇒ probability of event – Parentheses ⇒ probability of outcome Ryan Henry Events Defⁿ: If Pr:S→[0,1] is a probability distribution, then any subset E⊆S is called an event. The probability of E is Pr[E]≔∑Pr(x). x∈E • Convention: 7 – Square brackets ⇒ probability of event – Parentheses ⇒ probability of outcome Ryan Henry Events Q: How many events are there in S? |S| A: 2 , including the two “trivial” events 1. The universal event; i.e., E=S 2. The empty event (or null event); i.e., E=Ø Also includes the “elementary events”; i.e., the singleton set {x} for each x∈S Note: Each outcome is part of many events! 7 Ryan Henry Events • Eg.: S={0,1}⁸ E={x∈S|lsb2(x)=11} Q: What is Pr[E]? A: Pr(0000011)+Pr(00000111)+⋯+Pr(11111111) – To be more precise, need to fix a distribution Pr! Q: Suppose Pr:S→[0,1] is the uniform distribution. Now compute Pr[E]. A: Pr[E]=1/4 7 (how did we compute this?) Ryan Henry Counting theorem Thm (Counting theorem): If Pr:S→[0,1] is a uniform distribution and E⊆S is an event, then Pr[E]= |E|/|S| Proof: Pr[E] =∑ Pr(x) x∈E =∑ 1/|S| x∈E (defⁿ of Pr[E]) (defⁿ of uniform distribution) =1/|S|+⋯+1/|S| |E| times 8 =|E|/|S| ☐ Ryan Henry Complimetary events That’s a mighty fine probability you’ve got there! 9 Ryan Henry Complementary events Defⁿ: If Pr:S→[0,1] is a probability distribution and E⊆S is an event,then the complement of E is S∖E≔{x∈S|x∉E} 10 Ryan Henry Complementary events Defⁿ: If Pr:S→[0,1] is a probability distribution and E⊆S is an event,then the complement of E is S∖E≔{x∈S|x∉E} 10 Ryan Henry Complementary events Defⁿ: If Pr:S→[0,1] is a probability distribution and E⊆S is an event,then the complement of E is S∖E≔{x∈S|x∉E} • Intuitively, Ē is the event “E does not occur” • Notation: Complement of E is often denoted Ē (note the “bar” over E), which is read “ E bar” 10 Ryan Henry Complementary events Defⁿ: If Pr:S→[0,1] is a probability distribution and E⊆S is an event,then the complement of E is S∖E≔{x∈S|x∉E} • Intuitively, Ē is the event “E does not occur” • Notation: Complement of E is often denoted Ē (note the “bar” over E), which is read “ E bar” 10 Ryan Henry Complement rule Thm (Complement rule): If Pr:S→[0,1] is a probability distribution and E⊆S is an event, then Pr[Ē]=1−Pr[E] Proof: Pr[Ē] =∑ Pr(x) (defⁿ of Pr[Ē]) x∈Ē =∑Pr(x) (defⁿ of Ē) =∑ Pr(x)−∑ Pr(x) (rearranging) =1−∑ Pr(x) (defⁿ of Pr) =1−Pr[E] (defⁿ of Pr[E]) x∈S∖E x∈S x∈E 11 x∈E ☐ Ryan Henry Union bound Thm (Union bound): If Pr:S→[0,1] is a probability distribution and E,F⊆S are events, then Pr[E∪F]≤Pr[E]+Pr[F] 12 Ryan Henry Union bound Thm (Union bound): If Pr:S→[0,1] is a probability distribution and E,F⊆S are events, then Pr[E∪F]≤Pr[E]+Pr[F] 12 Ryan Henry Union bound Thm (Union bound): If Pr:S→[0,1] is a probability distribution and E,F⊆S are events, then Pr[E∪F]≤Pr[E]+Pr[F] Proof: Pr[E∪F] =∑Pr(x) (defⁿ of Pr[E∪F]) x∈E∪F =∑ Pr(x)+∑ Pr(x)−∑Pr(x) (inclusion-exclusion) =Pr[E]+Pr[F]−Pr[E∩F] (defⁿ of Pr[E] & Pr[F]) ≤Pr[E]+Pr[F] (defⁿ of Pr) x∈E 12 x∈F x∈E∩F ☐ Ryan Henry Union bound Thm (Union bound): If Pr:S→[0,1] is a probability distribution and E,F⊆S are events, then Pr[E∪F]≤Pr[E]+Pr[F] • Corollary: If E∩F=Ø, then Pr[E∪F]=Pr[E]+Pr[F] 12 Ryan Henry Union bound Thm (Union bound): If Pr:S→[0,1] is a probability distribution and E,F⊆S are events, then Pr[E∪F]≤Pr[E]+Pr[F] • Corollary: If E∩F=Ø, then Pr[E∪F]=Pr[E]+Pr[F] 12 Ryan Henry Union bound Thm (Union bound): If Pr:S→[0,1] is a probability distribution and E,F⊆S are events, then Pr[E∪F]≤Pr[E]+Pr[F] • Corollary: If E∩F=Ø, then Pr[E∪F]=Pr[E]+Pr[F] – If E∩F=Ø, we call E and F mutually exclusive events 12 Q: Is the converse of the above corollary true? A: No! We might have A∩B≠Ø but Pr[A∩B]=0! Ryan Henry Random variables Defⁿ: Let Pr:S→[0,1] be a probability distribution and let V be an arbitrary finite set. A random variable is a function X:S→V. • Sample space S is a “list” of all possible outcomes • Distribution Pr says “how likely” each outcome is 13 • Random variable X assigns a “meaning” or “interpretation” to each outcome Ryan Henry Random variables • Eg.: Let S={0,1}ⁿ and let X:S→{0,1} such that X(y)≔lsb(y) U V • If Pr is the uniform lsb=0 distribution, then Pr[X=0]=Pr[X=1]=1/2 lsb=1 · · • A random variable X “induces” a probability distribution on its range V via: 13 Pr[X=v]≔Pr[X⁻¹(v)] Ryan Henry The uniform random variable Defⁿ: Let Pr:S→[0,1] be a uniform distribution. The identity function X:S→S is called the uniform random variable on S. 14 Ryan Henry The uniform random variable Defⁿ: Let Pr:S→[0,1] be a uniform distribution. The identity function X:S→S is called the uniform random variable on S. • Notation: We write x∊S to denote that x is output by the uniform random variable on S • Other common notations: x←S 14 or R x←S or $ x←S Ryan Henry The uniform random variable Defⁿ: Let Pr:S→[0,1] be a uniform distribution. The identity function X:S→S is called the uniform random variable on S. • Notation: We write x∊S to denote that x is output by the uniform random variable on S • Other common notations: x←S 14 or R x←S or $ x←S Ryan Henry Independent events Defⁿ: If Pr:S→[0,1] is a probability distribution, then two events E,F⊆S are independent if Pr[E∩F]=Pr[E]·Pr[F] 15 Ryan Henry Independent events Defⁿ: If Pr:S→[0,1] is a probability distribution, then two events E,F⊆S are independent if Pr[E∩F]=Pr[E]·Pr[F] 15 Ryan Henry Independent events Defⁿ: If Pr:S→[0,1] is a probability distribution, then two events E,F⊆S are independent if Pr[E∩F]=Pr[E]·Pr[F] • Intuitively, E and F are independent events if E occurs with the same probability whether or not F occurs, and vice versa 15 Ryan Henry Independent random variables Defⁿ: Two random variables X≔S→V and Y≔S→V are independent if ∀a,b∈S, Pr[X=a∧Y=b]=Pr[X=a]·Pr[Y=b] • Intuitively, X and Y are independent random variables if the event X=a occurs with the same probability whether or not Y=b occurs, and vice versa for every possible choice of a,b 16 Ryan Henry Independent random variables • Eg.: Pr:{0,1}ⁿ→[0,1] is the uniform distribution – X:{0,1}ⁿ→{0,1} and Y:{0,1}ⁿ→{0,1} are random variable such that X(r)≔lsb(r) and Y(r)≔msb(r) Then, for any b0,b1∈{0,1}, Pr[X=b0∧Y=b1]=Pr[r=b1b0]=1/4 and Pr[X=b0]·Pr[Y=b1]=(1/2)·(1/2)=1/4 Hence, X and Y are independent random variables. 16 Ryan Henry Hold on! What if n=1!? Then X(r)=Y(r)! Good observation! Lesson: always check for implicit/hidden assumptions! 16 Ryan Henry Exclusive OR • The exclusion-OR of two strings is their bitwise addition modulo 2 x y 0 0 1 1 17 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 ⊕ 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 Ryan Henry Exclusive OR • The exclusion-OR of two strings is their bitwise addition modulo 2 x y 0 0 1 1 17 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 ⊕ 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 Ryan Henry Exclusive OR • The exclusion-OR of two strings is their bitwise addition modulo 2 x y 0 0 1 1 17 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 ⊕ 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 Ryan Henry An important property of XOR Thm (XOR preserves uniformity): If X:{0,1}ⁿ→{0,1}ⁿ is a uniform random variable and Y:{0,1}ⁿ→{0,1}ⁿ is an arbitrary random variable that is independent of X, Z≔X⊕Y is a uniform random variable. Proof: Left as an exercise (see Assignment 1). 18 ☐ Ryan Henry Conditional probability Defⁿ: If Pr:S→[0,1] is a probability distribution and E,F⊆S with Pr[F]≠0, the conditional probability of E given F is Pr[E|F]≔Pr[E∩F]⁄Pr[F] • Pr[E|F] is the probability that E occurs given that F also occurs 19 • Alt. defⁿ: Pr[E∩F]≔Pr[E|F]·Pr[F] Ryan Henry Law of Total Probabilities Thm (Law of Total Probabilities): If Pr:S→[0,1] is a probability distribution and E,F⊆S with Pr[F]≠0, then Pr[E]=Pr[E|F]·Pr[F]+Pr[E|Ĕ]·Pr[Ĕ] Proof: Pr[E] =∑Pr(x) x∈E =∑Pr(x)+∑Pr(x) x∈E∩F x∈E∩Ĕ =Pr[E∩F]+Pr[E∩Ĕ] 20 =Pr[E|F]·Pr[F]+Pr[E|Ĕ]·Pr[Ĕ] ☐ Ryan Henry Bayes’ Theorem Thm (Bayes’ Theorem): If Pr:S→[0,1] is a probability distribution and E,F⊆S with Pr[F]≠0, then Pr[E|F]=Pr[F|E]·Pr[E]/Pr[F] Proof: Pr[E|F] =Pr[E∩F]/Pr[F] 21 prob.) (defⁿ of Pr[E|F]) =Pr[F∩E]/Pr[F] (commutativity of ⋂) =Pr[F|E]·Pr[F]/Pr[E] (alt. defⁿ of cond. ☐ Ryan Henry Expectation Defⁿ: Suppose V⊆ℝ. If X:S→V is a random variable, then the expected value of X is Exp[X]≔∑ Pr[X=v]·v v∈V 22 Ryan Henry Expectation Defⁿ: Suppose V⊆ℝ. If X:S→V is a random variable, then the expected value of X is Exp[X]≔∑ Pr[X=v]·v v∈V 22 Ryan Henry Expectation Defⁿ: Suppose V⊆ℝ. If X:S→V is a random variable, then the expected value of X is Exp[X]≔∑ Pr[X=v]·v v∈V Fact: Expectation is linear; that is, Exp[X+Y]=Exp[X]+Exp[Y] Fact: If X and Y are independent random variables, then 22 Exp[X·Y]=Exp[X]·Exp[Y] Ryan Henry Markov’s Inequality Thm (Markov’s Inequality): Suppose V⊆ℝ. If X:S→V is a non-negative random variable and v>0, then Pr[X≥v]≤Exp[X]/v Proof: Exp[X] =∑ Pr[X=x]·x (defⁿ of Exp[X]) x∈V =∑ Pr[X=x]·x+∑ Pr[X=x]·x 23 x<v x≥v x<v x≥v (regrouping) ≤∑ Pr[X=x]·0+∑ Pr[X=x]·v = Pr[X≥v]·v ☐ Ryan Henry Variance Defⁿ: Suppose V⊆ℝ. If X:S→V is a random variable, then the variance of X is Var[X]≔Exp[(X−Exp[X])²] • Intuitively, Var[X] indicates how far we expect X to deviate from Exp[X] • Fact: 24 • Fact: Var[X]=Exp[X2]−(Exp[X])² Var[aX+b]=a² Var[X] Ryan Henry Chebyshev’s inequality Thm (Chebyshev’s Inequality): Suppose V⊆ℝ. If X:S→V is a random variable and δ>0, then Pr[|X−Exp[X]|≥δ]≤Var[X]⁄δ ² ² ² =Pr[|X−Exp[X]| ≥δ ] Proof: Pr[|X−Exp[X]|≥δ] 25 ≤Exp[(X−Exp[X])² ]⁄δ² (Mar k ov’s) = Var [ X ] / δ² ( D ef ⁿ ) ☐ Ryan Henry Chernoff’s bound Thm (Chernoff’s bound): Fix ε>0 and b∈{0,1}, and let X1,…,XN be independent random variables on {0,1} such that Pr[Xi=b]=1/2+ε for each i=1,…,N. The probability that the “majority value” of 2 -ε the Xi is not b is at most ℯ N⁄2. 26 Ryan Henry Markov v. Chebyshev v. Chernoff • Suppose we have a biased coin that homes up heads with probability 0.9 and tails with probability 0.1 • Consider random variable X that counts the number of tails after N=100 tosses. What is the probability that X is greater than or equal to 50? • Markov: 27 Pr[X≥50]≤Exp[X]⁄50=10⁄50 = 0.2 • Chebyshev: Pr[|X−Exp[X]|≥40]≤Var[X]⁄402 = 0.005625… • Chernoff: 0.000335… Pr[X≥50]≤ℯ-0.4 2 ∙100⁄2 = Ryan Henry That’s all for today, folks! Ryan Henry