Download FUTURE TRENDS

FUTURE TRENDS

RESEARCH BENEFITS

AMERICANS ARE LIVING LONGER,
MORE PRODUCTIVE LIVES; INFANT
MORTALITY RATES HAVE BEEN
REDUCED, ONCE INCURABLE
COMMUNICABLE DISEASES HAVE
BEEN CURED.

RESEARCH HAS PRODUCED SAFE,
COST EFFECTIVE VACCINES
AGAINST A NUMBER OF DISEASES
SUCH AS HEPATITIS B THAT HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO SAVE MILLIONS
OF LIVES A YEAR

IN MAY 2001, THE FDA APPROVED
“GLEEVAC” FOR USE IN TREATING A
SERIOUS BLOOD CANCER. THE
DRUG WAS DEVELOPED AFTER
MORE THAN 40 YEARS OF THE JOINT
EFFORTS RESEARCH AGENCIES AND
INDUSTRY.

NEWLY DEVELOPED MEDICATIONS
FOR SCHIZOPHRENIA HAVE
REDUCED PSYCHIATRIC
HOSPITALIZATIONS NEARLY 30
PERCENT FROM 1996 to 1998.

CHALLENGES REMAIN

THERE IS STILL A FORMIDABLE LIST
OF DISEASES FOR WHICH THERE
ARE NO CURES OR EFFECTIVE
TREATMENTS AND THE EMERGENCE
OF NEW, LIFE-THREATENING
DISEASES.

CHRONIC DISEASES LIKE CANCER,
CARDIOVASACULAR DISEASE AND
DIABETES CONTINUE TO CLAIM THE
LIVES OF MILLIONS OF AMERICANS
EACH YEAR AND DRAINING
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS FROM THE
NATION’S ECONOMY.

THE AGING OF OUR POPULATION IS
CREATING ENORMOUS
CHALLENGES IN HEALTH CARE. IN
2010 THE ‘BABY BOOMERS’
STARTING TURNING 65 AND THE
NUMBER OF AMERICAN’S OVER 85
WILL HAVE INCREASED FIVE-FOLD.

SOCIETY MUST FIND WAYS TO
PRESERVE THE PHYSICAL
COGNITIVE, AND SOCIAL
FUNCTIONING OF OUR OLDER
CITIZENS.

INFECTIOUS DISEASES, THE SECOND
LEADING CAUSE OF DEATH
WORLDWIDE, PRESENT AN EVERGROWING THREAT WITH THE
EMERGENCE OF INFECTIOUS
AGENTS LIKE HEPATITIS C OR THE
RE-EMERGENCE OF TUBERCULOSIS,
MALARIA IN MORE VIRULANT AND
DRUG-RESISTENT FORMS.

MENTAL ILLNESS CONTINUES AS A
NATIONAL CONCERN,
PARTICULARLY AMONG OUR
YOUNGER CITIZENS. IN THE UNITED
STATES 1 IN 10 CHILDREN AND
ADOLESCENTS SUFFER FROM
MENTAL ILLNESS SEVERE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE IMPAIRMENT.

MAJOR THRUSTS IN RESEARCH

GENETICS

CLINICAL RESEARCH

GENETICS

OBTAINING THE COMPLETE
SEQUENCE OF THE HUMAN GENOME
IS ONLY THE PRELUDE FOR THINGS
TO COME.

CLINICAL RESEARCH

MOVING KNOWLEDGE FROM THE
LABORATORY BENCH TO THE
PATIENT IS NEITHER EASY NOR
INEXPENSIVE.

CLINICAL RESEARCH IS DRIVEN BY
CLINICAL TRIALS WHICH REQUIRES
SETTING UP TEAMS TO DESIGN
RESEARCH PROTOCOLS, RECRUIT
PARTICIPANTS, CONDUCT THE
TRIALS AND ANALYZE THE DATA.

TRANSLATING BASIC RESEARCH
INTO EFFECTIVE THERAPIES.

FOR EXAMPLE…

THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF
ALLERGY AND INFECTIOUS
DISEASES CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
PROGRAMS TO BUILD THE
INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CLINICAL
TRIALS INCLUDING THE AIDS
CLINICAL TRIALS GROUP AND THE
HIV VACCINE TRIALS.

TECHNOLOGY

COMPUTING POWER,
BIOTECHNOLOGY, DISTANCE
TECHNOLOGY, AND SENSOR
TECHNOLOGY WILL MAKE
DELIVERY OF HEALTH CARE IN THE
U.S. UNRECOGNIZABLE FROM CARE
WE RECEIVE TODAY.

GENOMICS SCIENTISTS ARE
PERFECTING METHODS OF TURNING
RAW BIOLOGICAL MATERIAL INTO
DRUGS, VACCINES, AND
DIAGNOSTIC TESTS.

MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS IN
COMPUTER CHIP TECHNOLOGY,
NANOTECHNOLOGY, AND
COMBINATORIAL CHEMISTRY ARE
SIGNALING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE “LAB-ON-A-CHIP.”

IN THE 21ST CENTURY WE WILL BE
ABLE TO DETECT THE RISK OF
GENETICALLY CAUSED DISEASES
FROM THE MOMENT OF
CONCEPTION THROUGHOUT THE
LIFESPAN.
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THE WORLD WIDE WEB

MEDICAL INFORMATION IS ONE OF
THE MOST-RETRIEVED TYPES OF
INFORMATION ON THE WEB – WITH
OVER 100,000 MEDICAL WEB SITES.

THE INTERNET IS AN ENGINE FOR
CHANGE BECAUSE IT PROVIDES AN
INFRASTRUCTURE FOR HEALTH
PROFESSIONALS AND CONSUMERS
TO ACCESS RESOURCES AND
DATABASES.

DISTANCE TECHNOLOGY AND
SENSOR TECHNOLOGY

NEW TECHNOLOGIES IN HEALTH
CARE ARE BEING INTRODUCED AT
BLINDING SPEED.

THEY ARE STUNNING IN THEIR
BREADTH AND AND HOLD
TREMENDOUS IMPLICATIONS FOR
THE WAY HEALTH CARE WILL BE
DELIVERED IN THE FUTURE.

WHAT DO THE PEOPLE THINK
WILL BE THE FUTURE OF HEALTH
CARE?
FROM A SURVEY CONDUCTED BY
THE BAYLOR COLLEGE OF
MEDICINE…

A LARGE MAJORITY OF AMERICANS
EXPECT THAT THE NUMBER OF
PEOPLE UNABLE TO AFFORD
MEDICAL CARE WHEN THEY ARE
SERIOUSLY ILL WILL INCREASE IN
THE NEXT FIVE YEARS.

EIGHT IN TEN AMERICANS EXPECT
THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO WILL
NOT BE ABLE TO GET SPECIALITY
CARE WHEN THEY ARE SERIOUSLY
ILL WILL INCREASE IN THE NEXT
FIVE YEARS.

A LARGE MAJORITY EXPECTS AN
INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF
PEOPLE WHO WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
PAY FOR NURSING HOME CARE.

NEARY EIGHT OUT OF TEN THINK
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO WILL
BE UNABLE TO AFFORD MEDICAL
CARE FOR A SERIOUSLY ILL CHILD.

THIRTY PERCENT FEAR THAT THEIR
EMPLOYERS WILL STOP PROVIDING
HEALTHCARE INSURANCE OR
SEVERELY LIMIT COVERAGE IN THE
FUTURE.

WHAT DO PHYSICIANS THINK
WILL BE THE FUTURE?

SEVENTY ONE PERCENT SAY THERE
WILL BE GREATER LIMITATIONS ON
THE SERVICES THEY PROVIDE TO
PATIENTS.


SIXTY TWO PERCENT SAY IT WILL
BE MORE DIFFICULT TO SPEND THE
CURRENT AMOUNT OF TIME WITH
PATIENTS.
SIXTY PERCENT BELIEVE IT WILL BE
MORE DIFFICIULT KEEPING
RELATIONSHIPS WITH THE SAME
PATIENTS.

FIFTY FIVE PERCENT SAY IT WILL BE
MORE DIFFICULT TO PROVIDE CARE
THAT BOTH THEY AND THEIR
PATIENTS FEEL IS NECESSARY.


FIFTY EIGHT PERCENT SAY IT WILL
BE MORE DIFFICULT TO PROVIDE
CARE THAT BOTH THEY AND THE
PATIENTS FEEL IS NECESSARY.
FIFTY EIGHT PERCENT SAY IT WILL
BE MORE DIFFICULT TO REFER
ADULT PATIENTS TO A SPECIALISTS.

FORTY THREE PERCENT SAY IT WILL
BE MORE DIFFICULT TO REFER
CHILDREN TO A SPECIALIST.

THE INSTITUTE OF THE FUTURE.

GOVERNMENT LEGISLATION

LEGISLATION WILL AFFECT TWO
PRIMARY AREAS

THERE WILL LEGISLATIVE
OUTCOMES AS A RESULT OF A
BACKLASH AGAINST MANAGED
CARE.

MEDICARE MAY LOOK DIFFERENT
THAN IT DID IN THE EARLY 1990’S

MANY MEDICARE RECIPIENTS WILL
NOT BE IN THE TRADITIONAL FEEFOR-SERVICE PROGRAM BUT IN AN
HMO OR SOME OTHER ORGANIZED
HEALTH PLAN ARRANGEMENT.

DEMOGRAPHICS, PATIENTS,
POPULATIONS, AND NEW
CONSUMERS.

BY 2010 THE AVERAGE LIFE
EXPECTANCY WILL BE UP TO 86
YEARS OF AGE FOR A WOMAN AND
76 YEARS FOR A MAN.

THERE WILL BE 100,000 PEOPLE
OVER THE AGE OF 100.

AMERICA WILL BECOME MORE
ETHNICALLY DIVERSE.

CURRENTLY 74% OF THE
POPULATION IS WHITE. IN 2010
THAT WILL DECREASE TO 64%.

THE POPULATION WILL BE BETTER
EDUCATED. 55 PERCENT OF THE
POPULATION OVER THE AGE OF 25
WILL HAVE THE EQUIVALENT OF
ONE YEAR OF COLLEGE.

ACCESS TO HEALTH CARE WILL
REMAIN “TIERED” AND WILL
BECOME MORE EXTREME.

THE TOP TIER, “THE EMPOWERED
CONSUMER,” WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE DISCRETIONARY
INCOME, ARE WELL EDUCATED, AND
USE TECHNOLOGY TO GET
INFORMATION ABOUT THEIR
HEALTH.

PAYERS AND HEALTH CARE COSTS

HEALTH CARE COSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO GROW BUT THE
DESPITE THE BEST EFFORTS OF
CONGRESS PUBLIC PROGRAMS
(MEDICARE, MEDICAID) WILL GROW
AT A RATE OF 6% TO 9% ANNUALLY.

BUSINESS AND GOVERNMENT WILL
PUT IN PLACE STRATEGIES TO
REPRESS LARGE COST INCREASES.

BY 2005, HEALTH CARE COSTS WILL
ACCOUNT FOR ABOUT 15% OF THE
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP).

HEALTH PLANS AND INSURERS

BY 2005, HMO’S WILL CAPTURE THE
MAJORITY OF THE COMMERCIAL
MARKET AND 25% OF THE
MEDICARE MARKET, AND 60% OF
THE MEDICAID MARKET.

HOSPITALS AND PHYSICIANS

THERE ARE 570,000 PHYSICIANS IN
THE UNITED STATES AND ANOTHER
170,000 IN THE MEDICAL SCHOOL
PIPELINE.

THERE ARE THREE NEW PHYSICIANS
FOR EVERYONE WHO RETIRES.

THE NUMBER OF NURSE
PRACTITIONERS (NP’S), PHYSICIAN
ASSISTANTS (PA’S). AND OTHER
NON-MD CLINICIANS WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY.

THERE WILL BE HOSPITAL CLOSINGS
AND BED REDUCTIONS, BUT
HOSPITALS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
SHUT DOWN.

SHOULD EXPECT A REDUCTION OF
150,000 BEDS BY 2005.

MEDICAL TECHNOLOGIES

THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW
TECHNOLOGIES IS UNLIKELY TO
SLOW, AND THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING NUMBER OF NEW
TECHNOLGIES IN THE DECADE
AHEAD.

NEW TECHNOLOGIES

RATIONAL DRUG DESIGN
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ADVANCES IN IMAGING

MINIMALLY INVASIVE SURGERY

GENETICS MAPPING AND TESTING

GENE THERAPY
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VACCINES

ARTIFICIAL BLOOD

XENOTRANPLANTATION

THE TRANSPLANTATION OF ANIMAL
ORGANS AND TISSUES INTO HUMANS,
PRIMARILY BONE MARROW AND
SOLID ORGANS

MAYBE WE WILL ALL GET TO LIVE
FOREVER…

END OF LECTURE FOR November 28th,
2007, 7th Period.

Remember…next Monday…a fascinating
presentation by Mark Bowden, Physical
Therapist…on research.

Then..the final review…hot dog…