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A S T R A – A s s e s s m e n t o f Tr a n s p o r t Strategies E T I S + W o r k s h o p ; J u n e , 2 3 rd 2 0 1 0 , B r u s s e l s D r. M i c h a e l K r a i l , F r a u n h o f e r - I S I Car_Scrappage_Ratio Input ENV_car Input MAC_con Consumption_for_New_Cars + Purchase_Cars_CC_ES Car_Scrappage_CC_ES + + Car_Prices_CC_ES + + Car_Fleet_Total Diffusion_New_ES Technology Share Share_New_Cars_CC Car_Scrappage_Total + New_Cars_CC_ES Car_Ownership + + + Car_Fleet_CC ES + + + - New_Cars_CC + Delta_Car_Prices Registration_New_Cars Total + - + + Minimum_Replacement_Cars + Delta_Population_Density Delta_Variable_Costs Delta_Population Delta_Income_per_Adult Output POLES Output MAC_con ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies © Fraunhofer ISI Output POP Overview on ASTRA: key parameters ASTRA is an integrated assessment model based on System Dynamics and implemented with Vensim ASTRA consists of a system of integrated models each with different purpose Spatial coverage: EU27 plus Norway and Switzerland, trade with 12 world regions Time horizon: 1990 – 2050 (calibration period 1990 – 2003/2006) Original purpose of ASTRA (1997): strategic assessment of EU transport policies. "Strategic" meant long-term and integrated Seite 2 © Fraunhofer ISI ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies Overview on ASTRA: structure Key features: Integrated models Potential Labour Force System Dynamics (Vensim) GDP, (Un -)Employment, Sectoral Output 800 MB of output data Time horizon 2050 Abbreviations for 9 Modules: POP = Population Module MAC = Macroeconomics Module REM = Regional Economics Module FOT = Foreign Trade Module TRA = Transport Module VFT = Vehicle Fleet Module ENV = Environment Module WEM = Welfare Measurement Module INF = Infrastructure Module REM Goods-Flows - Exports, Imports INF FOT TRA Time Generalized Cost Transport Expenditure, Performance, Time TRA Fuel Tax Revenue, VAT GDP, Employment, .... Fuel Price VFT Fleet Structure ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies ENV TRA Time TRA Flows Transport Demand VKT 8 modes (P+F) Disposable Income >20000 OD flows (P, F) GDP, Productivity Transport Cost, Time Emissions, Noise, Accidents WEM Car Fleet MAC 25 economic sectors Fuel Price 76 zones Seite 3 © Fraunhofer ISI Population Structure POP Investment 27 EU countries (+ NO, CH) Consumption, Investment in Vehicles, VAT Population Change Overview on ASTRA: transport modes and vehicle fleets Passenger modes: slow, car, bus, rail, air Freight modes: truck (LDV, HDV), rail, ship Road fleet models with 1-year age cohorts Car fleet: gasoline (<1.4l, 1.4-2.0l, >2.0l), diesel (<2.0l, >2.0l), CNG, LPG, hybrid (1st generation), bioethanol, electric, hydrogen fuel cell, up to 9 emission standards Heavy duty vehicle fleet: <12ton gross vehicle weight, >12ton, up to 8 emission standards Light duty vehicle fleet: gasoline, diesel, up to 8 emission standards Train, ship, air: technical characteristics by trip purpose Driving situations: passenger: 5, freight: 4 Seite 4 © Fraunhofer ISI ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies ASTRA applications Transport policy assessment: pricing, taxation, TEN infrastructure, emissions and efficiency standards, Cost-benefit-analysis of transport projects (ASTRA, TIPMAC, IASON, DESIRE, REVENUE, ASSESS) Technology and scenario analysis: technology and employment policy, hydrogen technology strategy, integrated energy and transport scenarios, energy and transport policy (IPTS-Employment Study, STEPs, TRIAS, MATISSE, HOP!, iTREN-2030, GHG-TransPoRD) Renewables policy assessment: subsidies, feed-in tarifs, investment strategies (PROGRESS, Employ-RES, Employ-RES-D) Climate policy assessment: transport policy, EU-ETS, energy scenarios, investment strategies, cost implications (ASTRA, ADAM, Policy scenarios for climate protection IV and V, IKEP-Makro) Seite 5 © Fraunhofer ISI ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies Advantages and drawbacks of ASTRA Advantages Integrated analysis considering feedbacks and rebound effects Flexibility of policy implementation (stepwise, varying intensity, packaging, variety of measures) Time is explicitely modelled (points of time and delays matter!) Long-term time horizon (2050) Not grounded on mainstream economic theory (no equilibrium modeling) Drawbacks So far, level of detail not sufficient for regional analysis below country level Increase of model size due to increase of integrated purposes handled by ASTRA Seite 6 © Fraunhofer ISI ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies Input parameters and references Input parameters Calibration data or trends to which parts of model are adapted (e.g. population) Exogenous parameters: (labour productivity), (consumption split), energy prices, (emission factors) References EUROSTAT online database (various themes) OECD and COMEXT trade statistics EC Energy and Transport in Figures and related sources Network model data on transport (e.g. SCENES, VACLAV, TRANSTOOLS) Swiss/German handbook on emission factors, MEET project, COPERT for speed adaptations Specific questions Seite 7 © Fraunhofer ISI ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies A S T R A : h i s t o r y, m i l e s t o n e s a n d p r o j e c t s 1997 2001 2003 2005-2007 2007-2010 Projects: Policy iTREN- Seite 8 © Fraunhofer ISI Start of model development, 2000 completed Structural adaptation to 15 countries, 25 sectors Extension to 29 countries Inclusion of renewable energy models, consolidation and linkage with energy models Linkage with bottom-up models for climate policy assessment, economic assessment of impacts of high oil prices, employment impact of renewable energy policy ASTRA, IPTS-Employment Study, ASTRA-Italy, DESIRE, TIPMAC, IASON, SAT, LOTSE, REVENUE, STEPs, TRANSTOOLS, TRIAS, Renewable Energies, MATISSE, ADAM, Scenarios for Climate Protection , HOP!, KlimInvest, 2030, EMPLOY-RES, IKEP-Makro, GHG-TransPoRD ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies iTREN-2030: Impacts of Economic Crisis on transport (Integrated Scenario) 8,000 Domestic freight tkm by mode in EU27 7,000 6,000 5,000 [Bio tkm] [billion pkm] Motorised passenger surface transport demand INT vs REF 6,000 5,000 Diff to REF 4,000 3,000 4,000 Train IWW Bus 3,000 Ship Car Train 2,000 Truck 2,000 1,000 0 Van 1,000 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 0 2005 Seite 9 © Fraunhofer ISI 2010 2015 2020 ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies 2025 2030 i T R E N - 2 0 3 0 : c a r t e c h n o l o g y d i ff u s i o n EU27 car fleet by technology [Million Vehicles] 300 250 Hydrogen 200 Bioethanol Electric 150 Hybrid LPG CNG 100 Diesel Gasoline 50 0 2005 Seite 10 © Fraunhofer ISI 2010 2015 2020 2025 ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies 2030 P o l i c y S c e n a r i o s f o r C l i m a t e P r o t e c t i o n I V: C o n t r i b u t i o n to CO2 reductions by single transport measures CO2-savings by measures of Climate Policy scenario [Mt CO2] 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 -90 -100 Example application Introduction kerosene tax (30.2 ct/l) Air transport in EU-ETS Extension HGV km-charge CO2 differentiated circulation tax Low resistance types / lubricants Increase of biofuel quotas Doubling of HGV user costs Diesel tax raised to gasoline tax (65.4 ct/l) Mandatory CO2 emission limits cars (2012: 130 g/km) 2010 Seite 11 © Fraunhofer ISI 2015 2020 2025 2030 ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies Abolishment commuting subsidy Further information on recent ASTRA results Policy scenarios for climate protection IV: completed March 2007, also reporting to UNFFCC (German report for download at German EPA, only summary in English: www.umweltdaten.de/publikationen/fpdfl/3361.pdf) TRIAS: www.isi.fraunhofer.de/TRIAS HOP: www.hop-project.eu iTREN-2030: www.isi.fraunhofer.de/projects/iTREN-2030 Seite 12 © Fraunhofer ISI ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies Thank you for your attention! Dr. Michael Krail Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research Karlsruhe, Germany Email: [email protected] Tel.: +49 – (0)721 6089 429 Seite 13 © Fraunhofer ISI ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies ASTRA model: Overview of spatial representation Spatial disaggregation for EU29 countries: 14 EU15 countries (B+L) each with 4 functional zones 12 new EU member states plus Swi + Nor with 1-2 functional zones At maxiumum four functional zones per country classified by settlement density: Metropolitan zone High density zone Medium density zone Low density zone Seite 14 © Fraunhofer ISI ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies Passenger transport model ASTRA socio-economic framework GDP Infrastructure Investment Income Car fleet by car types Infrastructure Capacity Travel time Generalized cost O/D Generalized cost modes Transport distribution Modal-split Population Transport generation Employment Transport demand Occupancy rates Passenger transport model Seit Seite 15 © Fraunhofer ISI ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies Freight transport model ASTRA socio-economic framework Infrastructure Investment GDP Infrastructure Capacity Travel time Generalized cost O/D Generalized cost modes Transport demand Trade flows National transport generation Sectoral output Value-tovolume ratios Seit Transport distribution Modal-split Load factors Freight transport model Seite 16 © Fraunhofer ISI ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies Car fleet and car choice model ASTRA socio-economic framework Infrastructure Investment GDP Car taxes Policy and new technologies Filling station network Existing car fleet by age, by technology, by emission stand. Choice of new cars Fuel price Purchase of new cars Income Car prices Scrapped cars Car-ownership Population Car fleet and car choice model Seit Seite 17 © Fraunhofer ISI ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies Ageing of car fleet ASTRA structure of economic modules Private Cap. TFP Public Cap. Capital Stock Employment Labour Supply Population (Resource Inp.) Income Export Depreciation Potential Output GDP Supply Side (national) > < GDP Consumption Investment Final Demand Trade Balance Fuel taxes Subsidies Value-added tax Indirect taxes Other taxes Direct taxes Import Gov. consum. (by sector) Net national product GDP Demand Side National income Transfers Social contrib. 18 Seite 18 © Fraunhofer ISI ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies Disposable income P S z - I V: C l i m a t e P o l i c y s c e n a r i o d e s c r i b e d b y l i s t o f planned policy measures • Complete abolishment of commuting subsidy (tax exemption) • Equal taxation of gasoline and diesel fuel i.e. increase of diesel fuel tax • Strengthening of voluntary agreement with ACEA to reach in 2012: 130 g CO2 /km and in 2030: 100 g CO2 /km of average fleet in Germany • Inclusion of air transport in EU-ETS gradually but fully until 2013 • Introduction of kerosene tax in 2013 (30.2 ct/l) • Extension of HGV charge on total long distance road network • Doubling of HGV user cost until 2015 • 100% market penetration of low rolling resistance tyres and highly fluid oils • Increase of mandatory biofuel quotas: 2020: 12.5 % 2030: 25% Seite 19 © Fraunhofer ISI ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies