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Socio-Digital Influence Attack Models and Deterrence (FA9550-15-1-0003) PI: Tim Weninger (University of Notre Dame; Computer Science and Engineering) AFOSR Program Review: Trust & Influence June 13-17, 2016, Washington DC. Rating Behavior on Social News The Idea: Determine the influence and impact that social news has on user behavior and beliefs. Social Media A different kind of social media Reddit is big and growing. Reddit Experiment Voting Vote Manipulation Results – Vote Effects on Final Total Posts Comments Vote Manipulation Results – Vote Effects on Final Total Posts Comments Vote Manipulation Results – Delay Effects Posts Comments Vote Manipulation Results – Decile Plots Distributions are so highly skewed that standard statistical tests don’t work well Posts Vote Manipulation Results – Decile Plots Distributions are so highly skewed that standard statistical tests don’t work well Comments Vote Manipulation Results – Popularity Probability Posts Comments Data is available Data is available for download: http://www3.nd.edu/~tweninge/data/reddit_report.html With dozens of features: Subreddit, time of day (local and UTC), User ID, Post ID, Comment ID, Flair, etc. Why? Rich get Richer Effect Positive ratings beget higher visibility Negative ratings beget lower visibility (on social media) The more that people see an image, the more opportunities exist for them to rate an image. Do high-quality posts get higher ratings? Does quality match ratings? GuessTheKarma .com Hat-tip to Greg Stoddard So how did everybody do? Not good… Average accuracy was about 50%, with a nice bell curve around the mean. Is this a fair test? Not necessarily When post differences are taken into account the scores rise a bit. Are people playing nicely? Yes-ish People generally make up their minds in a few seconds RedditResearch Plugin Social Media Usage Dynamics Links ( 1,697,541 interactions) Time series data of users’ click events , e.g. on a title, on comments, on ‘subscribe’ buttons, or on expansion and collapse buttons (e.g. for images or videos). Navigation ( 121,056 interactions) Time series data of users navigation to different areas of reddit such as to a different subreddit or to a different sorting like hot, new, and rising. Page loads ( 1,597,212 interactions) Time series data of reddit.com pages loaded by our users. Votes ( 1,155,467 votes) Any votes cast or reversed by users, the user’s current subreddit, and basic information about the content voted on (title, reddit id, score, upvote count, downvote count, rank on page, number of comments, time posted, subreddit posted in, time voted on by user) Project Summary Research Objectives: Technical Approach: 1) Explore Social Media Manipulation 1) Use artificial ratings and capture user behavior 2) Identify rating and usage behaviors on social media 2) Browser plugin to capture user behavior 3) Create manipulation deterrence strategies 3) Create immune rating effects, algorithms and ranking systems. Key Findings: Benefits to the wider academic or DoD community: 1) Ranking effect bias is a very large factor in a social media’s post lifecycle that can be easily manipulated with votes 2) Comments and Posts behave differently. Understanding how news media effects behavior will lead to technologies that are more immune to social media manipulation strategies. Project Start Date: 1/01/2015 Project End Date: 12/31/2017 Publications, Awards, Patents or Transitions Attributed Maria Glenski and Tim Weninger Rating Effects on Social News Posts and Comments. ACM Trans. On Intelligent Systems and Technology (TIST). Accepted. Corey Pennycuff and Tim Weninger Striations in PageRank-Ordered Matrices. Social Network Analysis and Mining, 6(1), 1-17, 2017. Baoxu Shi and Tim Weninger Discriminative Predicate Path Mining for Fact Checking in Knowledge Graphs. Knowledge Based Systems, 104(15), 123-133, 2016. Baoxu Shi and Tim Weninger Fact Checking in Heterogeneous Information Networks. WWW, Montreal, Canada. April 2016. Baoxu Shi and Tim Weninger Scalable Models for Computing Hierarchies in Information Networks. Knowledge and Information Systems. pp. 1-31, 2016. Salvador Aguinaga, Aditya Nambiar, Zuozhu Liu, Tim Weninger Concept Hierarchies and Human Navigation. IEEE Conference on BigData. Santa Clara, CA. October 29, 2015. Maria Glenski, Thomas J. Johnston and Tim Weninger Random Voting Effects in Social-Digital Spaces: A case study of Reddit Post Submissions. ACM Conference on Hypertext and Social Media (Hypertext), METU, Cyprus, September 1-4, 2015. TEDx Talk received editors pick of the month. Ryan McCune wins IBM PhD Fellowship, USAID Fellowship Workshop chair at Social Informatics – send me your workshop ideas. Talks at: KDD, ASONAM, HT, NetSci, UIC, Arizona State, UChicago, USC, Roma Tre