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Socio-Digital Influence Attack Models and Deterrence
(FA9550-15-1-0003)
PI: Tim Weninger (University of Notre Dame; Computer Science and Engineering)
AFOSR Program Review: Trust & Influence
June 13-17, 2016, Washington DC.
Rating Behavior on Social News
The Idea:
Determine the influence and impact that social news has on
user behavior and beliefs.
Social Media
A different kind of
social media
Reddit is big and growing.
Reddit Experiment
Voting
Vote Manipulation Results – Vote Effects on Final Total
Posts
Comments
Vote Manipulation Results – Vote Effects on Final Total
Posts
Comments
Vote Manipulation Results – Delay Effects
Posts
Comments
Vote Manipulation Results – Decile Plots
Distributions are so highly skewed that standard
statistical tests don’t work well
Posts
Vote Manipulation Results – Decile Plots
Distributions are so highly skewed that standard
statistical tests don’t work well
Comments
Vote Manipulation Results – Popularity Probability
Posts
Comments
Data is available
Data is available for download:
http://www3.nd.edu/~tweninge/data/reddit_report.html
With dozens of features:
Subreddit, time of day (local and UTC), User ID, Post ID, Comment ID, Flair, etc.
Why?
Rich get Richer Effect
Positive ratings beget higher visibility
Negative ratings beget lower visibility
(on social media)
The more that people see an image, the more
opportunities exist for them to rate an image.
Do high-quality posts get higher ratings?
Does quality match ratings?
GuessTheKarma .com
Hat-tip to Greg Stoddard
So how did everybody do?
Not good…
Average accuracy was about 50%,
with a nice bell curve around the mean.
Is this a fair test?
Not necessarily
When post differences are taken into account the scores rise a bit.
Are people playing nicely?
Yes-ish
People generally make up their minds in a few seconds
RedditResearch Plugin
Social Media Usage Dynamics
Links ( 1,697,541 interactions)
Time series data of users’ click events , e.g. on a title, on comments, on ‘subscribe’
buttons, or on expansion and collapse buttons (e.g. for images or videos).
Navigation ( 121,056 interactions)
Time series data of users navigation to different areas of reddit such as to a
different subreddit or to a different sorting like hot, new, and rising.
Page loads ( 1,597,212 interactions)
Time series data of reddit.com pages loaded by our users.
Votes ( 1,155,467 votes)
Any votes cast or reversed by users, the user’s current subreddit, and basic
information about the content voted on (title, reddit id, score, upvote count,
downvote count, rank on page, number of comments, time posted, subreddit
posted in, time voted on by user)
Project Summary
Research Objectives:
Technical Approach:
1) Explore Social Media
Manipulation
1) Use artificial ratings and capture
user behavior
2) Identify rating and usage
behaviors on social media
2) Browser plugin to capture user
behavior
3) Create manipulation deterrence
strategies
3) Create immune rating effects,
algorithms and ranking systems.
Key Findings:
Benefits to the wider academic or
DoD community:
1) Ranking effect bias is a very
large factor in a social media’s
post lifecycle that can be easily
manipulated with votes
2) Comments and Posts behave
differently.
Understanding how news media
effects behavior will lead to
technologies that are more immune
to social media manipulation
strategies.
Project Start Date: 1/01/2015
Project End Date: 12/31/2017
Publications, Awards, Patents or Transitions Attributed
Maria Glenski and Tim Weninger Rating Effects on Social News Posts and Comments. ACM Trans. On Intelligent Systems and
Technology (TIST). Accepted.
Corey Pennycuff and Tim Weninger Striations in PageRank-Ordered Matrices. Social Network Analysis and Mining, 6(1), 1-17,
2017.
Baoxu Shi and Tim Weninger Discriminative Predicate Path Mining for Fact Checking in Knowledge Graphs. Knowledge Based
Systems, 104(15), 123-133, 2016.
Baoxu Shi and Tim Weninger Fact Checking in Heterogeneous Information Networks. WWW, Montreal, Canada. April 2016.
Baoxu Shi and Tim Weninger Scalable Models for Computing Hierarchies in Information Networks. Knowledge and Information
Systems. pp. 1-31, 2016.
Salvador Aguinaga, Aditya Nambiar, Zuozhu Liu, Tim Weninger Concept Hierarchies and Human Navigation. IEEE Conference on
BigData. Santa Clara, CA. October 29, 2015.
Maria Glenski, Thomas J. Johnston and Tim Weninger Random Voting Effects in Social-Digital Spaces: A case study of Reddit Post
Submissions. ACM Conference on Hypertext and Social Media (Hypertext), METU, Cyprus, September 1-4, 2015.
TEDx Talk received editors pick of the month.
Ryan McCune wins IBM PhD Fellowship, USAID Fellowship
Workshop chair at Social Informatics – send me your workshop ideas.
Talks at: KDD, ASONAM, HT, NetSci, UIC, Arizona State, UChicago, USC, Roma Tre