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Warm Up  May 20th Please pick up the 11-2 Enrichment sheet from the cart and get started (both sides) Tougher Probability  Carson is not having much luck lately. His car will only start 80% of the time and his moped will only start 60% of the time.  Draw a tree diagram to illustrate the situation.  Use the diagram to determine the chance that  Both will start  He has to take his car.  He has to take the bus. Tougher Probability    A box contains 3 red, 2 blue and 1 yellow marble. Draw a tree diagram to represent drawing 2 marbles. With replacement Without replacement Find the probability of getting two different colors:  If replacement occurs  If replacement does not occur Tougher Probability  A bag contains 5 red and 3 blue marbles. Two marbles are drawn simultaneously from the bad. Determine the probability that at least one is red. Probability Check 1. 2. 13/24 47/70 1/5 6. 2/5 7. 3/5 8. 4/5 9. 7/18 10. 11/18 11. 5/6 12. 5/9 5. 144π/5000 = .0905 15. 3/625 = .0048 16. (144π + 24)/5000 = .0953 17. 1-(144π/5000) = .9095 14. 22. a) 1,1 2,1 1,2 2,2 1,3 2,3 1,4 2,4 b) 16 c) 3/16 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 Probability & Trials  Ch. 19 Dice Simulation Normal Distribution  Bell-shaped curve defined by the mean and standard deviation of a data set. Characteristics of a Normal Distribution  What do the 3 curves have in common? Characteristics of a Normal Distribution  The curves may have different mean and/or standard deviations but they all have the same characteristics  Bell-shaped continuous curve  Symmetrical about the mean  Mean, median and mode are the same and located at the center  It approaches, but never touches the x axis  Area under the curve is always 1 (100%) Is it Normal? Empirical Rule  If data follows a normal distribution… 68% of it will be within 1 standard deviation  95% of it will be within 2 standard deviations  99% of it will be within 3 standard deviations  Empirical Rule Empirical Rule Examples The heights of the 880 students at East Meck High School are normally distributed with a mean of 67 inches and a standard deviation of 2.5 inches a) Draw and label the normal curve.  b) 68% of the students fall between what two heights? Examples (cont.) c) What percent of the students are between 59.5 and 69.5 inches tall? d) Approximately how many students are more than 72 inches tall? You Try! A machine used to fill water bottle dispenses slightly different amounts into each bottle. Suppose the volume of water in 120 bottles is normally distributed with a mean of 1.1 liters and a standard deviation of 0.02 liter. a) Draw and label the normal curve. b) 95% of the water bottles fall between what two volumes? c) What percent of the bottles have between 1.08 and 1.12 liters? d) Approximately how many bottles of water are filled with less than 1.06 liters?  Back to Heights Examples e) If a student is 62 inches tall, how many standard deviations from the mean are they? f) If a student is 71 inches tall, how many standard deviations from the mean are they? Standard Deviations How to be more specific…  A standard normal distribution is the set of all z-scores (or z-values).  It represents how many standard deviations a certain data point is away from the mean.  The z-score is positive if the data value lies above the mean and negative if it’s below the mean. How to find Z-Scores Examples  Find z if X = 24, µ = 29 and σ = 4.2  You Try! Find Z if X = 19, μ = 22, and σ = 2.6 Back to Heights Examples More Specific e) If a student is 62 inches tall, how many standard deviations from the mean are they? f) If a student is 71 inches tall, how many standard deviations from the mean are they? You Try! A machine used to fill water bottle dispenses slightly different amounts into each bottle. Suppose the volume of water in 120 bottles is normally distributed with a mean of 1.1 liters and a standard deviation of 0.02 liter. e) If a water bottle has 1.16 liters, how many standard deviations from the mean is it?  f) If a water bottle has 1.07 liters, how many standard deviations away from the mean is it? Back to Heights Examples The heights of the 880 students at East Meck High School are normally distributed with a mean of 67 inches and a standard deviation of 2.5 inches g) If you pick a student at random, what is the probability that they will be between 62 and 72 inches tall?  h) If you pick a student at random, what is the probability they will be between 65 and 69 inches tall? Area & Probability 2nd  DISTR (Vars button)  normalcdf(minimum z value, maximum z value) Back to h) If you pick a student at random, what is the probability they will be between 65 and 69 inches tall? (remember mean = 67 and SD = 2.5)  More Examples   The temperatures for one month for a city in California are normally distributed with mean = 81 degrees and sd = 6 degrees. Find each probability and use a graphing calculator to sketch the corresponding area under the curve. a. P(70 < x < 90) More Examples   The scores on a standardized test are normally distributed with mean = 72 and sd = 11. Find each probability and use a graphing calculator to sketch the corresponding area under the curve. Find: P(65 < x < 85) You Try Again! A machine used to fill water bottle dispenses slightly different amounts into each bottle. Suppose the volume of water in 120 bottles is normally distributed with a mean of 1.1 liters and a standard deviation of 0.02 liter. g) If you pick a water bottle at random, what is the probability that it will be between 1.06 and 1.12 liters?  h) If you pick a water bottle at random, what is the probability it will be between 1.05 and 1.11 liters? What about these?  The temperatures for one month for a city in California are normally distributed with m = 81 degrees and s = 6 degrees. Find P (x > 95) What about this one?  The scores on a standardized test are normally distributed with mean = 72 and sd = 11. Find P (x < 89) You Try! The heights of the 880 students at East Meck High School are normally distributed with a mean of 67 inches and a standard deviation of 2.5 inches i) What is the probability they will be more than 70 inches tall?  j) What is the probability they will be less than 61 inches tall? You Try Again! A machine used to fill water bottle dispenses slightly different amounts into each bottle. Suppose the volume of water in 120 bottles is normally distributed with a mean of 1.1 liters and a standard deviation of 0.02 liter. i) What is the probability it will have more than 1.13 liters?  j) What is the probability it will have less than 1.04 liters?