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OMM WMO WMO’S ROLE IN DISASTER MITIGATION CHALLENGES AS WE PREPARE FOR WORLD CONFERENCE ON NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Geneva, Switzerland OMM Weather, water and climate-related hazards WMO Hot & cold spells El Niño Droughts River basin flooding Tropical cyclones Heavy precipitations (rain or snow) Storm surges Ice Storms Dust storms Storm (winds) Wildland fires & haze Hail&Lightning Mud & landslides Flash floods Avalanches Tornadoes OMM Regional distribution of natural disasters (1993-2002) WMO Europe 14% Oceania 3% Africa 21% Americas 20% Asia 42% OMM Distribution of people killed (1993-2002) WMO High human development 2% Low human development 66% Medium human development 32% OMM Hydro-meteorological and geophysical disasters (1993-2002) WMO 1- Damage (US$billion) 2- Number affected 3- Number killed 3 2 1 0 20 40 Hydrometeorological disasters 60 80 100 Geophysical disasters OMM Evolution of natural disasters and their impacts WMO 3000 2500 Nb of reported disasters 2000 Nb reported killed (thousands) 1500 Nb reported affected (millions) 1000 Damage (billions US$) 500 0 1970s 1980s 1990s OMM Climate change - Third IPCC assessment report - impacts WMO In 2100 half of the world population will be under water stress Subtropical zones: Less precipitations; increased desertification Tropical zones: Increased health risks High latitudes: permafrost decrease Coastal zones: coastal erosion; storm surges; salt water intrusions Cost of global warming in 2050: 300 billion US Dollars per year (Munich Re) OMM Role of WMO in disaster management WMO Risk identification Response Knowledge management Preparedness Mitigation Prevention Recovery Risk management applications (agriculture, water resources, etc) Preparedness and emergency management Governance support OMM Risk Identification WMO Monitoring Early warnings for weather water or climate related disasters Adaptation measures Vulnerability assessment and Hazard analysis OMM Risk Identification: monitoring (1) WMO OMM Risk Identification: monitoring (2) WMO OMM Risk Identification: monitoring (3) WMO OMM Risk Identification: monitoring (4) WMO OMM Risk Identification: monitoring (5) WMO 900 Argo floats in operation by mid-2003. By 2005, some 3 000 floats are planned. OMM Risk Identification: Early warnings (1) WMO 120 h Ensemble Pred. tools Global models Limited Area models Nowcasting tools 96 h 72 h 48 h 24 h EPS, Probabilities Global models Warnings Activities Time dependency of forecast methods used for the preparation and maintenance of warnings at DWD (From Thomas Shuman –DWD) L.A. models Nowcasting OMM Risk Identification: Early warnings (2) WMO Strike probability (within 65 nm) of Typhoon Rusa over the next 120 hours. Starting time of the forecast is 27 August 2002 12 UTC. Full dots give the observed position over the period 27 August to 1 September 2002 GLOBAL DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS OMM Risk Identification: Early warnings (3) WMO Observational data are needed for the study of climate variability and issue of warnings for climaterelated disasters - issued from weeks to seasons in advance if adequate climate predictions are available Regular assessments and authoritative statements on climate variability Climate alert system for early warnings on pending significant climate anomalies OMM Risk Identification: Early warnings (4) WMO WMO’s World Climate Programme (WCP) is monitoring and issuing El Niño outlooks, which alerts governments to prepare to El Niño related anomalies Regional Climate Outlook – important development for evaluation of seasonal forecasts Forums have become regular meetings in some regions, where NMHSs meet to discuss global climate model outputs and develop consensus seasonal forecasts for regional and local use OMM Risk Identification: Adaptation measures WMO Adaptation is a response measure promoted by the UNFCC and early warning systems are one way of reducing vulnerability and enhancing adaptive capacity to weather events and climate change. Enhanced collaboration is needed between the climate and disaster reduction communities to the implementation of measures as environmental planning, data and information pooling, improved observation systems, best practices exchange, strengthened technical cooperation, and close collaboration with policy makers. OMM Risk Identification: Vulnerability assessment WMO Linkage between climate and disaster databases to assess different vulnerabilities. A pilot project is on going in Chile linking climate with flood disaster databases with the support of WMO through the World Climate Programme as part of the activities of IATF working Groups on Climate and Disasters and on Risk, Vulnerability and Impact Assessment OMM Risk Identification: Hazard analysis WMO Improved hazard analysis and hazard mapping are needed to be extended to all countries as a tool for risk communication among policy makers and communities. Hazard maps are essential to prepare evacuation efficiently and to allow authorities to adjust land use and city planning. WMO will continue to assist NMHSs in developing and managing climate databases, through the Data Rescue and Climate Database Management Projects. OMM Knowledge Management (1) WMO Many hazards associated with high-impact weather involve smaller-scale atmospheric phenomena, which exhibit still low predictive skills (e.g., localized heavy precipitation) Further improvements in the prediction of high-impact weather and in the full utilization of forecast information WMO’s World Weather Research Programme - support to cooperative international research projects and experiments (e.g. THORPEX) - translate research findings into policy and operational actions for high impact weather phenomena OMM Knowledge Management (2) WMO User education and awareness are essential: to increase weather literacy and interest in meteorological topics to ensure that warnings and forecasts provided by the NMHSs are understood by the intended users to build up a high level of awareness of hazards and preparedness to enable emergency management authorities to make wellinformed decisions WMO’s Public Weather Services Programme contributes to this effort for the interpretation of forecasts and warnings OMM Risk Management Applications (1) WMO The WMO’s Technical Commission for Hydrology conducts a project on “Risk Management” Aim to assist practices NHSs in implementing risk management Scope to encompasses the application of a set of guidelines and best practice for use byNHSs on risk management Is a demonstration project which will initially focus on Africa and Asia OMM Risk Management Applications (2) WMO The Associated Programme on Flood Management Promotes the concept of Integrated Flood Management across sectors Collect case studies and conducts pilot projects to mitigate flood-related disasters and to develop community approaches to flood management. Application of a set of guidelines and best practice for use by NHSs for existing and planned activities in flood management OMM Risk Management Applications (3) WMO WMO’s Agricultural Meteorology Programme Provides guidance on the development of support systems for sustainable land management and agro-climatic zoning with the active participation of the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology. OMM Preparedness and emergency management WMO Timely and accurate forecasts and warnings of natural hazards coupled with adequate local preparedness planning are fundamental requirements for disaster reduction Optimal response to natural disasters requires effective coordination and cooperation between responsible agencies, institutions, officials, the media, political leaders and other players at local, national and international levels WMO will support the NMHSs to establish and enhance partnerships between NMHSs and the national authorities and organizations involved in the natural disaster reduction activities to improve preparedness and emergency planning OMM Governance Support WMO Legislation and adequate normative framework are essential to implement risk management. Political commitment is crucial to allocate the necessary resources. Contributions of NMHSs need to be integrated in national disaster management plans. WMO is supporting NMHSs to promote natural disaster reduction and mitigation as national priority action by the Governments. OMM Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (1) WMO Fourteenth WMO Congress (May 2003) Recognized the significant role WMO and NMHSs play in international disaster reduction activities concerning mitigation of, and preparedness for, natural disasters of meteorological or hydrological origin Decided to initiate a new WMO major programme on Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (building on all relevant WMO Programmes and activities) as a crosscutting programme to enhance international cooperation and collaboration in the field of natural disaster activities OMM Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (2) WMO To develop an effective and efficient mechanism to provide, in an integrated fashion, the WMO response to the requirements and needs of Members and international community concerning disaster reduction in light of related developments To encourage and assist Members in developing/enhancing NMHSs contribution to national disaster preparedness programmes in a more fully integrated manner, especially in coordination with national civil defence/disaster coordination offices OMM Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (3) WMO To ensure that activities and results of relevant WMO Programmes are fully used in the process of the WMO’s participation in the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) To enhance WMO’s role and recognition as one of the leading international organizations dealing with disaster reduction, in particular through active participation in high-level global fora and related activities OMM International Framework (1) WMO Natural disasters affect all countries, but burden falls disproportionately on developing countries Support to natural disaster reduction is both an issue of sustainable development and a matter of environmental justice requiring international solidarity OMM International Framework (2) WMO ISDR succeeded IDNDR Several significant Declarations, Agendas and Conventions: Millennium Declaration UNFCCC (climate change) UNCCD (desertification) Freshwater Agenda World Summit on Sustainable Development OMM Conclusions (1) Need for an integrated approach WMO National and regional levels Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Cooperation across disciplines and agencies Links with academic community International level Between IGOs and NGOs concerned Capacity building and transfer of technology activities OMM Conclusions (2) Need for an integrated approach WMO In multiple domains observations communications data processing (incl. NWP) … Accross disciplines