Download UMCP HONRS 229L, Fall 2015: Lecture 9

HONR 229L: Climate Change: Science, Economics, and Governance
Lecture #9: Climate Models: Perspective of a Physical Scientist
Ross Salawitch & Brian Bennett
[email protected]
[email protected]
Class Web Site: http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~rjs/class/honr229L
ELMS Page: https://myelms.umd.edu/courses/1201356
3 October 2016
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1
Hurricane Matthew: Pray for Haiti
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl
Copyright © 2016 University of Maryland.
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2
Hurricane Matthew: Pray for Haiti
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl
Copyright © 2016 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
3
Hurricane Matthew: Pray for Haiti
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl
Copyright © 2016 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
4
Hurricane Matthew: Pray for Haiti
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-animated.gif
Copyright © 2016 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
5
Hurricane Matthew: Pray for Haiti
Copyright © 2016 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
6
Hurricane Matthew: Pray for Haiti
http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-haiti-hurricane-matthew-20161004-snap-story.html
Copyright © 2016 University of Maryland.
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HONR 229L: Climate Change: Science, Economics, and Governance
The two most important anthropogenic greenhouse gases are:
carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)
Water (H2O) varies in response to global warming, but is not emitted in large enough amounts to be
considered an anthropogenic GHG
Is it debatable whether nitrous oxide (N2O), halocarbons (CFCs), or tropospheric ozone (O3) is the
third most important anthropogenic GHG
Question 2.1, IPCC, 2007
Copyright © 2016 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
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HONR 229L: Climate Change: Science, Economics, and Governance
The two most important anthropogenic greenhouse gases are:
carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)
Water (H2O) varies in response to global warming, but is not emitted in large enough amounts to be
considered an anthropogenic GHG
Is it debatable whether nitrous oxide (N2O), halocarbons (CFCs), or tropospheric ozone (O3) is the
third most important anthropogenic GHG
Salawitch et al., Paris Climate Agreement: Beacon of Hope, to be published soon by Springer/Nature
Copyright © 2016 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
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HONR 229L: Climate Change: Science, Economics, and Governance
Evidence the rise in atmospheric CO2 is truly due to human activity (FAQ 7.1):
Salawitch et al., Paris Climate Agreement: Beacon of Hope, to be published soon by Springer/Nature
Copyright © 2016 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
10
HONR 229L: Climate Change: Science, Economics, and Governance
Evidence the rise in atmospheric CH4 is truly due to human activity (FAQ 7.1):
Salawitch et al., Paris Climate Agreement: Beacon of Hope, to be published soon by Springer/Nature
Copyright © 2016 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
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HONR 229L: Climate Change: Science, Economics, and Governance
Climate Models: Perspective of a Physical Scientist
Nikki Cavett
5 October 2016
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Coriolis Effect
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El Niño
What is it?
• Warm water anomaly
• Pacific Ocean, specifically South America
• Rossby waves take warm water west
• Kelvin waves take warm water back east
Consequences:
• Droughts and floods
• Abnormally high sea level temperatures
Current El Niño Conditions
• What are we experiencing now?
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/global-impacts-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-lani%C3%B1a
http://esminfo.prenhall.com/science/geoanimations/animations/26_NinoNina.html
Copyright © 2016 University of Maryland.
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This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
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Components Needed to Predict Future Climate
What must be considered besides atmosphere?
• Ocean
• Land
• Ice
• Biosphere
What are some examples as to how each factor contributes to climate change?
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What was last to be added to computer models?
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What was last to be added to computer models?
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Feedback Importance on Climate Models
From the admission ticket:
a) if the abundance of CO2 were to double and no feedbacks were to occur, how
would global surface temperature respond?
b) if the abundance of CO2 were to double and feedbacks were to occur, according to
our present understanding of how they actually operate, how would global surface
temperature respond?
Then state on a scale of "not important", "moderately important", or "very important", how
important the proper understanding of feedbacks is, if we would like to achieve accurate
projections of climate change
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This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
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Change in Radiative
Forcing:
5.35 ln (CO2final/CO2initial)
5.35 ln (380/280) =
5.35 ln (1.36) =
5.35 x 0.3 = 1.6 W m-2
When CO2 doubles, we
expect:
5.35 ln (2) = 3.7 W m-2
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The Various Feedbacks:
1.Water Vapor
–
–
Higher temperatures  larger amounts of evaporation
Water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas
2.Clouds
–
–
Reflect solar radiation but reflects infrared radiation
Effect depends on different factors, can anyone name some?
3.Ocean
–
–
–
Provide greatest source of heating to environment through latent heat
Temperature buffer
Redistributes heat
4.Ice-albedo
–
–
Ice and snow reflect a large amount of solar radiation
Less ice and snow, less reflecting
Which is the most important kind of feedback?
Is there anything about these feedbacks is confusing?
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https://sites.google.com/a/wyckoffschools.org/ems-chemistry-part-1/chapter-2-phase-changes/chapter-2-reading-andvideo/chapter-2-assessment/chapter-2-answers
Copyright © 2016 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
23
Copyright © 2016 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
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Climate Model Validation
Three ways to validate:
• Current simulation
• Past simulation
• Anomaly simulation
Describe each of the three ways to validate a climate model?
Name certain aspects of these climate models that must be in accordance with actual climate
to be considered valid.
Why are recent climate models more accurate? (ie. What are scientists learning more about
that affects climate?)
Copyright © 2016 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
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Climate Model Validation
Three ways to validate:
• Current simulation
• Past simulation
• Anomaly simulation
Describe each of the three ways to validate a climate model?
Name certain aspects of these climate models that must be in accordance with actual climate
to be considered valid.
Why are recent climate models more accurate? (ie. What are scientists learning more about
that affects climate?)
Copyright © 2016 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
26
What is the irony in residue of atmospheric atomic bomb tests being
used to determine important science?
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The IPCC has stated:
“It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed
warming since the mid-20th century.”
After all the readings thus far, do you agree?
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HONR 229L: Climate Change: Science, Economics, and Governance
Climate Models: Perspective of a Physical Scientist:
The Last Word
Ross Salawitch
Copyright © 2016 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
29
HONR 229L: Climate Change: Science, Economics, and Governance
Evidence rise in global mean surface temperature is due to humans:
Salawitch et al., Paris Climate Agreement: Beacon of Hope, to be published soon by Springer/Nature
Copyright © 2016 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
30
HONR 229L: Climate Change: Science, Economics, and Governance
Evidence rise in global mean surface temperature is due to humans:
← Stratosphere cools
Troposphere warms →
Salawitch et al., Paris Climate Agreement: Beacon of Hope, to be published soon by Springer/Nature
Copyright © 2016 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
31
What are the three feedbacks described in the reading?
Water vapor, clouds, and ice albedo
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32
What are the three feedbacks described in the reading?
Water vapor, clouds, and ice albedo
Fig 8.14, IPCC, 2007
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What are the three feedbacks described in the reading?
Water vapor, clouds, and ice albedo
Fig 8.14, IPCC, 2007
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What are the three feedbacks described in the reading?
Water vapor, clouds, and ice albedo
LR: Lapse Rate
Fig 8.14, IPCC, 2007
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This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
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Aerosol RF = –1.9 W m−2
BLACK : Data
RED: Model
∆TMDL i = (1+ γTOT) (GHG RF i + NAA RF i ) / λP
+ Co+ C1×SOD i−6+ C2×TSI i−1 + C3×ENSO
+ C4×AMOC i + C5×PDO i + C6×IOD i
− QOCEAN i/ λP
where
i−2
λP = 3.2 W m−2 / °C
1+ γTOT = { 1 − Σ(Feedback Parameters) / λP}−1
NAA RF = net RF due to anthropogenic aerosols
SOD = Stratospheric optical depth
TSI = Total solar irradiance
ENSO = Multivariate El Niño South. Osc Index
AMOC= Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
PDO = Pacific Decadal Oscillation
IOD = Indian Ocean Dipole
QOCEAN = Ocean heat export
ECS: Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity
Rise in global mean surface T, for CO2 doubling
ECS of 3.11°C implies α = fo / f = 2.70
and f = 1.18 W m−2 K −1
If sum of WV, LR, and A feedbacks is 1.5 W m−2 K −1
then cloud feedback is 0.52 W m−2 K −1 (positive)
Copyright © 2016 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
37
Aerosol RF = –1.5 W m−2
BLACK : Data
RED: Model
∆TMDL i = (1+ γTOT) (GHG RF i + NAA RF i ) / λP
+ Co+ C1×SOD i−6+ C2×TSI i−1 + C3×ENSO
+ C4×AMOC i + C5×PDO i + C6×IOD i
− QOCEAN i/ λP
where
i−2
λP = 3.2 W m−2 / °C
1+ γTOT = { 1 − Σ(Feedback Parameters) / λP}−1
NAA RF = net RF due to anthropogenic aerosols
SOD = Stratospheric optical depth
TSI = Total solar irradiance
ENSO = Multivariate El Niño South. Osc Index
AMOC= Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
PDO = Pacific Decadal Oscillation
IOD = Indian Ocean Dipole
QOCEAN = Ocean heat export
ECS: Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity
Rise in global mean surface T, for CO2 doubling
ECS of 2.36°C implies α = fo / f = 2.05
and f = 1.56 W m−2 K −1
If sum of WV, LR, and A feedbacks is 1.5 W m−2 K −1
then cloud feedback is 0.14 W m−2 K −1 (weak positive)
Copyright © 2016 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
38
Aerosol RF = –0.9 W m−2
BLACK : Data
RED: Model
∆TMDL i = (1+ γTOT) (GHG RF i + NAA RF i ) / λP
+ Co+ C1×SOD i−6+ C2×TSI i−1 + C3×ENSO
+ C4×AMOC i + C5×PDO i + C6×IOD i
− QOCEAN i/ λP
where
i−2
λP = 3.2 W m−2 / °C
1+ γTOT = { 1 − Σ(Feedback Parameters) / λP}−1
NAA RF = net RF due to anthropogenic aerosols
SOD = Stratospheric optical depth
TSI = Total solar irradiance
ENSO = Multivariate El Niño South. Osc Index
AMOC= Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
PDO = Pacific Decadal Oscillation
IOD = Indian Ocean Dipole
QOCEAN = Ocean heat export
ECS: Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity
Rise in global mean surface T, for CO2 doubling
ECS of 1.73°C implies α = fo / f = 1.56
and f = 2.05 W m−2 K −1
If sum of WV, LR, and A feedbacks is 1.5 W m−2 K −1
then cloud feedback is 0.35 W m−2 K −1 (negative)
Copyright © 2016 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
39
Aerosol RF = –0.4 W m−2
BLACK : Data
RED: Model
∆TMDL i = (1+ γTOT) (GHG RF i + NAA RF i ) / λP
+ Co+ C1×SOD i−6+ C2×TSI i−1 + C3×ENSO
+ C4×AMOC i + C5×PDO i + C6×IOD i
− QOCEAN i/ λP
where
i−2
λP = 3.2 W m−2 / °C
1+ γTOT = { 1 − Σ(Feedback Parameters) / λP}−1
NAA RF = net RF due to anthropogenic aerosols
SOD = Stratospheric optical depth
TSI = Total solar irradiance
ENSO = Multivariate El Niño South. Osc Index
AMOC= Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
PDO = Pacific Decadal Oscillation
IOD = Indian Ocean Dipole
QOCEAN = Ocean heat export
ECS: Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity
Rise in global mean surface T, for CO2 doubling
ECS of 1.41°C implies α = fo / f = 1.23
and f = 2.60 W m−2 K −1
If sum of WV, LR, and A feedbacks is 1.5 W m−2 K −1
then cloud feedback is 0.90 W m−2 K −1 (strong negative)
Copyright © 2016 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
40
Aerosol RF = –0.1 W m−2
BLACK : Data
RED: Model
∆TMDL i = (1+ γTOT) (GHG RF i + NAA RF i ) / λP
+ Co+ C1×SOD i−6+ C2×TSI i−1 + C3×ENSO
+ C4×AMOC i + C5×PDO i + C6×IOD i
− QOCEAN i/ λP
where
i−2
λP = 3.2 W m−2 / °C
1+ γTOT = { 1 − Σ(Feedback Parameters) / λP}−1
NAA RF = net RF due to anthropogenic aerosols
SOD = Stratospheric optical depth
TSI = Total solar irradiance
ENSO = Multivariate El Niño South. Osc Index
AMOC= Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
PDO = Pacific Decadal Oscillation
IOD = Indian Ocean Dipole
QOCEAN = Ocean heat export
ECS: Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity
Rise in global mean surface T, for CO2 doubling
ECS of 1.27°C implies α = fo / f = 1.10
and f = 2.90 W m−2 K −1
If sum of WV, LR, and A feedbacks is 1.5 W m−2 K −1
then cloud feedback is 1.2 W m−2 K −1 (strong negative)
Copyright © 2016 University of Maryland.
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch.
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