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HAWKES LEARNING SYSTEMS math courseware specialists Copyright © 2008 by Hawkes Learning Systems/Quant Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Section 11.1 Hypothesis Testing – Two Means (Large, Independent Samples) HAWKES LEARNING SYSTEMS Hypothesis Testing (Two or More Populations) math courseware specialists 11.1 Hypothesis Testing – Two Means (Large, Independent Samples) Definitions: • Hypothesis – a theory or premise, usually the claim that someone is investigating. • Null Hypothesis, H0 – describes the currently accepted value for the population parameter. • Alternative Hypothesis, Ha – describes the claim that is being tested; the mathematical opposite of the null hypothesis. • Hypothesis Test – compares the merit of the two competing hypotheses by examining the data that is collected. HAWKES LEARNING SYSTEMS Hypothesis Testing (Two or More Populations) math courseware specialists 11.1 Hypothesis Testing – Two Means (Large, Independent Samples) Determine the null and alternative hypotheses (Left-Tailed): Write the null and alternative hypotheses for the claim that population 1’s mean is less than population 2’s mean. Solution: Claim: Population 1’s mean is less than population 2’s mean. m1 < m2 or m1 – m2 < 0 Mathematical opposite: m1 ≥ m2 or m1 – m2 ≥ 0 H0: m1 – m2 ≥ 0 Ha: m1 – m2 < 0 Current accepted belief Testing hypothesis HAWKES LEARNING SYSTEMS Hypothesis Testing (Two or More Populations) math courseware specialists 11.1 Hypothesis Testing – Two Means (Large, Independent Samples) Determine the null and alternative hypotheses (Right-Tailed): Write the null and alternative hypotheses for the claim that population 1’s mean is more than 20 units above population 2’s mean. Solution: Claim: Population 1’s mean is more than 20 units above population 2’s mean. m1 > m2 + 20 or m1 – m2 > 20 Mathematical opposite: m1 ≤ m2 + 20 or m1 – m2 ≤ 20 H0: m1 – m2 ≤ 20 Current accepted belief Ha: m1 – m2 > 20 Testing hypothesis HAWKES LEARNING SYSTEMS Hypothesis Testing (Two or More Populations) math courseware specialists 11.1 Hypothesis Testing – Two Means (Large, Independent Samples) Determine the null and alternative hypotheses (Two-Tailed): Write the null and alternative hypotheses for the claim that population 1’s mean is not equal to population 2’s mean. Solution: Claim: Population 1’s mean is not equal to population 2’s mean. m1 ≠ m2 or m1 – m2 ≠ 0 Mathematical opposite: m1 = m2 or m1 – m2 = 0 H0: m1 – m2 = 0 Ha: m1 – m2 ≠ 0 Current accepted belief Testing hypothesis HAWKES LEARNING SYSTEMS Hypothesis Testing (Two or More Populations) math courseware specialists 11.1 Hypothesis Testing – Two Means (Large, Independent Samples) Test Statistic for Large Samples, n ≥ 30: • A p-value is the probability of obtaining a sample more extreme than the one observed on your data, when H0 is assumed to be true. • To find the p-value, first calculate the z-score from the sample data and then find the corresponding probability for that z-score. HAWKES LEARNING SYSTEMS Hypothesis Testing (Two or More Populations) math courseware specialists 11.1 Hypothesis Testing – Two Means (Large, Independent Samples) Conclusions for a Hypothesis Testing Using p-Values: 1. If p ≤ a, then reject the null hypothesis. 2. If p > a, then fail to reject the null hypothesis. HAWKES LEARNING SYSTEMS Hypothesis Testing (Two or More Populations) math courseware specialists 11.1 Hypothesis Testing – Two Means (Large, Independent Samples) Steps for Hypothesis Testing: 1. State the null and alternative hypotheses. 2. Set up the hypothesis test by choosing the test statistic and stating the level of significance. 3. Gather data and calculate the necessary sample statistics. 4. Draw a conclusion by comparing the p-value to the level of significance. HAWKES LEARNING SYSTEMS Hypothesis Testing (Two or More Populations) math courseware specialists 11.1 Hypothesis Testing – Two Means (Large, Independent Samples) Draw a conclusion: Two universities in the same state are bitter rivals. Each university believes that their students are more physically fit than the other. To test the claim that there is a difference in the fitness of the students at each university, 36 students at the first university were surveyed and found to exercise on average 2.9 hours a week with a standard deviation of 1.1 hours. Thirty-eight students at the second university were also surveyed and found to have an average of 2.7 exercise hours a week with a standard deviation of 1.0 hour. Use a 0.05 level of significance to perform a hypothesis test with the given data. Solution: First state the hypotheses: H0: m1 – m2 = 0 Ha: m1 – m2 ≠ 0 Next, set up the hypothesis test and state the level of significance: a = 0.05 Reject if p < a, or if p < 0.05. HAWKES LEARNING SYSTEMS Hypothesis Testing (Two or More Populations) math courseware specialists 11.1 Hypothesis Testing – Two Means (Large, Independent Samples) Solution (continued): Gather the data and calculate the necessary sample statistics: n1 = 36, 1 = 2.9, s1 = 1.1, n2 = 38, 2 = 2.7, s2 = 1.0 0.82 Since this is a two-tailed test, p = 0.2061 x (2) = 0.4122. Finally, draw a conclusion: Since p is greater than a (0.05), we will fail to reject the null hypothesis. There is not sufficient evidence at the 0.05 level of significance to say that there is a difference in the fitness of the students at each university. HAWKES LEARNING SYSTEMS Hypothesis Testing (Two or More Populations) math courseware specialists 11.1 Hypothesis Testing – Two Means (Large, Independent Samples) Draw a conclusion: A drug manufacturer claims that its new cholesterol drug, when used together with a healthy diet and exercise plan, lowers cholesterol by over 20 points more than simply changing a patient’s diet and exercise regimen. To test the claim, a group of 55 patients with high cholesterol is chosen to take the drug along with a change in diet and exercise. Over the course of 3 months, this group lowers their cholesterol by an average of 44.7 points with a standard deviation of 6.8 points. Another 55 patients change their diet and exercise regimen, but do not take the drug. This group lowers their cholesterol by an average of 23.1 points, with a standard deviation of 5.3 points. Test the claim using a 0.01 level of significance. Solution: First state the hypotheses: H0: m1 – m2 ≤ 20 Ha: m1 – m2 > 20 Next, set up the hypothesis test and state the level of significance: a = 0.01 Reject if p < a, or if p < 0.01. HAWKES LEARNING SYSTEMS Hypothesis Testing (Two or More Populations) math courseware specialists 11.1 Hypothesis Testing – Two Means (Large, Independent Samples) Solution (continued): Gather the data and calculate the necessary sample statistics: n1 = 55, 1 = 44.7, s1 = 6.8, n2 = 55, 2 = 23.1, s2 = 5.3 1.38 Since this is a right-tailed test, p = 0.0838. Finally, draw a conclusion: Since p is greater than a (0.01), we will fail to reject the null hypothesis. There is not sufficient evidence at the 0.01 level of significance to support the drug manufacturer’s claim that the new drug, when used together with a healthy diet and exercise plan, lowers cholesterol by more than 20 points. μ1 - μ2 = 0 μ1 - μ2 ≠ 0 Population Means are the same Population Means are the different = (8.83 – 9.04) - 0 SQRT( 0.3932 + 0.6722 ) 34 36 . = -1.6065 μ1 - μ2 = 0 μ1 - μ2 ≠ 0 Population Means are the same Population Means are the different Reject the Null, if p-value < a μ1 - μ2 = 0 μ1 - μ2 ≠ 0 Population Means are the same Population Means are the different Reject if z < -za or |z| > | za | or p-value < a Reject if |z| > |1.96| or z < -1.96 Computed-z is -1.6065 and it is Not < -1.96 or |1.6065| is Not > |1.96| p-value is 0.108 and it is greater than 0.05 Don’t reject the Null Hypothesis. Not enough evidence that they are different. s12 s 22 Std.Error = n1 n2 μ1 - μ2 = 0 μ1 - μ2 ≠ 0 Population Means are the same Population Means are the different Critical-Z c One-Tailed Test Two-Tailed Test 0.90 1.28 ±1.645 0.95 1.645 ±1.96 0.98 2.05 ±2.33 0.99 2.33 ±2.575 Confidence Interval = (μ1 – μ2) ± (Critical-Z x Std Error) Confidence Interval = (μ1 – μ2) ± (Margin of Error) Std Error = SQRT( 3.952 251 + 3.032 270 ) = 0.3101 s12 s 22 Std.Error = n1 n2 Lower = (6.93 - 8.21) - (1.96 x 0.3101) = -1.8878 Upper = (6.93 - 8.21) + (1.96 x 0.3101) = -0.6722 s12 s 22 Std.Error = n1 n2