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International & National Business and Economy
For the week ended on 11 July 2015
Dear Members,
The credit disbursed to Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) recorded a
Y-O-Y growth of 9.3% during the fortnight ended 26th June 2015. Food
credit fell by Rs. 54.3 billion to Rs. 1.1 trillion, while non-food credit rose
by Rs. 109.3 billion to Rs. 65.5 trillion. During the same period, money
supply; which is broad money (M3) expanded by Rs. 0.3 billion to Rs. 108.5
trillion. Out of the components of M3, demand deposits with banks rose by
Rs. 183 billion to Rs. 1.9 trillion and time deposits expanded by Rs. 141.8
billion to Rs. 85 trillion, although the currency with public fell by Rs. 311
billion to Rs. 14.3 trillion. In June 2015, the Central government mopped up
Rs. 161 trillion from the market via Treasury bills and dated securities in
June 2015. This was the highest amount of borrowings in 22 months.
Borrowings rose by 18% in June on m-o-m basis. This was unlike the trend
observed in the past seven years. The Government’s gross fiscal deficit
declined by 13.4% during April-May 2015 on a Y-o-Y basis. It touched
37.5% of the full year’s target by May 2015 as against 45.3% a year ago.
However, net market borrowings rose by 53% to Rs. 1.45 trillion.
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through the weekly updates on the national and international economy
China stock market surges in volatile session
Mainland Chinese shares rebounded on Thursday after regulators took further steps to
try to calm the stock market. The Shanghai Composite index reversed earlier losses
to close up 5.76%, its biggest percentage gain since 2009. A move to ban big investors
from selling stocks may have helped to support the market, analysts said. Meanwhile,
the state-run news agency Xinhua said police were investigating "vicious short-selling"
on the country's stock market. Xinhua said authorities would "crack down" on
operations that had broken the laws and regulations related to trading.
benchmark Shanghai index closed up 202.14 points at 3,709.33.
IMF says US Fed should delay interest rate rise until 2016
The International Monetary Fund has warned the US Federal Reserve against raising
interest rates this year. A rise risks adding to the growing economic and political
threats to US growth, the IMF said in a health check on the world's largest economy.
Many economists had forecast a rise in September, although recent economic and jobs
data had dampened expectations. The Washington-based IMF also warned that US
share prices were hitting unsustainable levels. A rate rise would trigger more gains in
the value of the dollar, something that the IMF has said previously this year could stall
growth and impact across emerging markets. The dollar has risen about 20% against a
basket of currencies during the past 12 months.
House prices hit £200,000 record
The average cost of properties in the UK has exceeded £200,000 for the first time,
according to the Halifax. It said house prices jumped by 1.7% in June compared with
the previous month, marking their fourth consecutive monthly rise. Annual price
inflation also rose significantly, from 8.6% in May to 9.6% in June. It brings the
average price of a UK house or flat to £200,280, the highest amount recorded by the
Halifax measure.
German exports post strongest monthly rise of the year
German exports rose at their fastest pace this year in May, boosting expectations that
Europe's largest economy will pull off stronger growth in the second quarter after
expanding modestly in the first. Seasonally-adjusted exports climbed unexpectedly
by 1.7 per cent on the month while imports increased by 0.4 per cent, widening the
trade surplus to 22.8 billion euros, data from the Federal Statistics Office showed on
Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had expected exports to slip by 0.8 per cent
and imports to rise by 0.9 per cent.
Sensex closes 114 points down, Nifty fails to hold 8,350; Vedanta,
BPCL top losers
After remaining in a thin range for most of the session, the S&P BSE Sensex eventually
settled 114.06 points lower as investors turned cautious ahead of the kick start of the
earnings season, with TCS' Q1 numbers scheduled later in the day. The 30-pack index
shed 0.41 per cent to settle at 27,573.66. Nifty fell 34.50 points, or 0.41 per cent, to
close at 8,328.55. Selling in IT majors TCS and Infosys weighed heavy on indices.
Weakness in index heavyweights such as Reliance Industries and ITC added to the
sentiment. Market breadth was mixed, with one of every two BSE stocks ending
lower. BPCL and Vedanta were the top losers on Nifty, down about 5 per cent each.
India's two-speed inflation strains country's indebted companies
Indian firms battling towering debts are calling for more interest rate cuts as they
worry the central bank is tying monetary policy too much to consumer inflation and
ignoring the longest streak of wholesale price falls on record. Reserve Bank of India
(RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan in 2014 started using consumer prices as the bank's
key inflation measure to focus policy on ordinary Indians. This year, the link between
consumer prices and monetary policy became even stronger as the RBI formally
adopted an inflation-targeting regime.
Indian economy sustainable at 8-10 per cent
India's economic growth will be sustainable at 8 to 10 per cent per annum over the
longer-term, a top Indian economist said here today. "In the longer-run, the growth
will be sustained by between 8 per cent and 10 per cent per annum over the next 15
years. India has good prospects and support of the government's growth-oriented
policies," said Professor Arvind Panagariya, vice chairman of the National Institution
for Transforming India (NITI) Aayog.
India's June consumer price inflation likely to nudge up, May factory
growth rate to be steady
Indian data to be released in coming days is likely to show consumer price inflation
nudged up slightly in June and factory output growth little changed in May, pointing
to a gradual improvement in industry, according to a Reuters poll.
The median
forecast from a survey of 30 economists this week put inflation at 5.10 per cent in
June compared to May's 5.01 percent. The Reserve Bank of India, which has already
cut the repo rate three times this year, is closely monitoring the effect of monsoon
rains on inflation to determine whether there is leeway to ease policy further.
Gold, silver rebound on firm global cues, jewellers buying
Gold prices rebounded by Rs 200 to Rs 26,370 per 10 grams at the bullion market
today, tracking a firm trend overseas amid fresh buying by jewellers. Silver also
surged by Rs 1,050 to Rs 35,500 per kg on increased offtake by industrial units and
coin makers. Bullion traders said sentiment turned better after gold advanced from
three-month lows in global markets after dollar weakened, raising demand for the
precious metals. Gold in Singapore, which normally sets price trend on the domestic
front, rose by 0.7 per cent to USD 1,166.69 an ounce and silver advanced 1.5 per cent
to USD 15.39 an ounce.
Indian Rupee opens higher at 63.32 per dollar
The Indian rupee gained further in early trade Friday. The currency has opened
marginally higher by 7 paise at 63.32 per dollar against yesterday’s close of 63.39 a
dollar. Pramit Brahmbhatt of Veracity said, “Concerns raised over the Greece debt
issue will continue to hover over the market. We see the rupee range between 63.2064/dollar today.” Euro firmed up on signs that cash-strapped Greece was making
some progress in its efforts to secure fresh funding.
Compiled by: Ms. Sharmila Ranade & Ms. Varsha Mahajan
Edited by: Ms. Manjari Desai
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